2025 Season

[UVA_Guy81]

Since the start of the season is officially under way with Spring Training games starting yesterday, I figured this was a good time as any to start a season thread.

 

[UVA_Guy81]

The Orioles and Nationals are finally getting a MASN divorce

The decade-plus saga has come to an end, MLB announced on Monday morning.

www.camdenchat.com

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Okay, what's going on with all these preseason injuries?

• Gunnar Henderson with "right intercoastal strain" / Andrew Kittredge with "left knee soreness"
• Grayson Rodriguez with "triceps soreness"

Hopefully, it's not the worst-case scenario of "season already over before it even started"... but what's the short-term backup plan if any of them cannot return by Opening Day? As I see it:

• If Henderson is unavailable: One possibility is Holliday at SS / Westburg at 2B / Urías at 3B, with Liván Soto or Vimael Machín called up to be the backup infielder. (Coby Mayo is another possibility since calling him up would not require removing anyone from the 40-man roster, but he doesn't seem ready yet...)
  
  
• If Kittredge is unavailable: If we limit to the 40-man roster, the current choices are between Bryan Baker, Colin Selby, Kade Strowd, or Luis González. (It's probably not going to be Selby since he was already optioned on 3/2.)
  
  
• If Rodriguez is unavailable: Again limiting to the 40-man roster, the choices are Brandon Young, Cade Povich, and Roansy Contreras. (Of course, another possibility is to temporarily move Albert Suárez back to the #5 starter spot and call up a reliever instead-- but Suárez has struggled during this year'sSpring Training.)

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Okay, what's going on with all these preseason injuries?

For additional bad news:

• Confirmed: Rodriguez and Kittredge "will miss season's start"
• In addition to Henderson being injured, Tyler O'Neil was also "scratched from the lineup on March 6 as a precaution"

(Overreaction of the day: "Maybe this team should have started rebuilding at the trade deadline in 2024? Do the Orioles need to replace their strength and conditioning staff as well?" Or are we in "fire Elias yesterday" territory? Either way, Fangraphs is currently projecting Povich and Baker as the replacements for Rodriguez and Kittredge, while still expecting Henderson and O'Neil to recover in time for Opening Day.)

 

[UVA_Guy81]

For additional bad news:

• Confirmed: Rodriguez and Kittredge "will miss season's start"
• In addition to Henderson being injured, Tyler O'Neil was also "scratched from the lineup on March 6 as a precaution"

(Overreaction of the day: "Maybe this team should have started rebuilding at the trade deadline in 2024? Do the Orioles need to replace their strength and conditioning staff as well?" Or are we in "fire Elias yesterday" territory? Either way, Fangraphs is currently projecting Povich and Baker as the replacements for Rodriguez and Kittredge, while still expecting Henderson and O'Neil to recover in time for Opening Day.)

Not there in the fire Elias mentality yet but I do feel like he needs to get his head out of his ass about signing free agents when we now have an owner that at least says that he's willing to spend some money on free agents.
I'm just wondering how some of these players' offseason workout regimen's are. Replacing the staff might not be the worst idea, especially if the injuries continue to pile up.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Not there in the fire Elias mentality yet but I do feel like he needs to get his head out of his ass about signing free agents when we now have an owner that at least says that he's willing to spend some money on free agents.

I'm just wondering how some of these players' offseason workout regimen's are. Replacing the staff might not be the worst idea, especially if the injuries continue to pile up.

Interestingly enough, we might have another case where "injuries are an equalizer":

• Take a look at the Yankees for example: Gerritt Cole and Luis Gil are expected to be sidelined for a while as well, and the knock-on effect of this is an expected loss of 0.5 projected fWAR on the aggregate according to Fangraphs. (The estimate was 49.5 team fWAR about a month ago, versus 49.0 now; the difference consists of -0.4 fWAR among starting pitchers, and -0.1 fWAR among relievers.)
  
  
• For comparison, the figures for the Orioles are 47.4 fWAR about a month ago, versus 47.8 now. (Presumably, there is a rounding error involved in the displayed numbers, as the apparent difference is -0.1 fWAR for SP and +0.3 fWAR for RP, which should result in a net increase of only 0.2 fWAR as opposed to 0.4 fWAR.)

So how did the "lead in talent level on paper" for the 2025 Yankees over the 2025 Orioles drop from 1.6 fWAR to 1.2 fWAR despite both teams losing multiple players to injuries? It looks like it's because the reduction of projected playing time for Cole and Gil are a bigger deal:

• For the Yankees:
  • Cole: 3.0 fWAR => 2.2 fWAR (-52 IP); Gil: 1.7 fWAR => 1.0 fWAR (-61 IP); net -1.5 fWAR
    
    
  • Some of those innings are expected to go to Clarke Schmidt (+0.4 fWAR), Marcus Stroman (+0.3 fWAR), or Will Warren (+0.5 fWAR). That's net -0.3 fWAR, and the remaining -0.2 fWAR can be considered "rounding error" from other pitchers
    
    
• For the Orioles:
  • Rodriguez: 2.6 fWAR => 2.4 fWAR (-10 IP); Kittredge: 0.3 fWAR => 0.1 fWAR (-28 IP); net -0.4 fWAR
    
    
  • So it looks like the model is currently projecting a short absence for Rodriguez, and those innings are expected to go to Kremer / Sugano / Povich (+0.2 fWAR total); the rest can be considered rounding error. For Kittredge, it looks like the 28 innings are being spread out among multiple relievers, and the projected value for Dominguez and Pérez increased slightly (net +0.3 fWAR).

Does this mean "there's no point in signing an ace?" Of course not-- but from a "risk diversification" standpoint, it does suggest that "multiple above-average players" may be a better choice than "one superstar" if both options are projected to provide the same amount of marginal value on the aggregate. (Still, even then this is more of an argument for preferring a rotation of "only #2-3 types" over "one real ace supported by a #3 type and three #4/5 types"-- right now, the Orioles are pretty much hoping that the multiple question marks in their pitching would pan out.)

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Interestingly enough, we might have another case where "injuries are an equalizer":

• Take a look at the Yankees for example: Gerritt Cole and Luis Gil are expected to be sidelined for a while as well, and the knock-on effect of this is an expected loss of 0.5 projected fWAR on the aggregate according to Fangraphs. (The estimate was 49.5 team fWAR about a month ago, versus 49.0 now; the difference consists of -0.4 fWAR among starting pitchers, and -0.1 fWAR among relievers.)
  
  
• For comparison, the figures for the Orioles are 47.4 fWAR about a month ago, versus 47.8 now. (Presumably, there is a rounding error involved in the displayed numbers, as the apparent difference is -0.1 fWAR for SP and +0.3 fWAR for RP, which should result in a net increase of only 0.2 fWAR as opposed to 0.4 fWAR.)

So how did the "lead in talent level on paper" for the 2025 Yankees over the 2025 Orioles drop from 1.6 fWAR to 1.2 fWAR despite both teams losing multiple players to injuries? It looks like it's because the reduction of projected playing time for Cole and Gil are a bigger deal:

• For the Yankees:
  • Cole: 3.0 fWAR => 2.2 fWAR (-52 IP); Gil: 1.7 fWAR => 1.0 fWAR (-61 IP); net -1.5 fWAR
    
    
  • Some of those innings are expected to go to Clarke Schmidt (+0.4 fWAR), Marcus Stroman (+0.3 fWAR), or Will Warren (+0.5 fWAR). That's net -0.3 fWAR, and the remaining -0.2 fWAR can be considered "rounding error" from other pitchers
    
• For the Orioles:
  • Rodriguez: 2.6 fWAR => 2.4 fWAR (-10 IP); Kittredge: 0.3 fWAR => 0.1 fWAR (-28 IP); net -0.4 fWAR
    
    
  • So it looks like the model is currently projecting a short absence for Rodriguez, and those innings are expected to go to Kremer / Sugano / Povich (+0.2 fWAR total); the rest can be considered rounding error. For Kittredge, it looks like the 28 innings are being spread out among multiple relievers, and the projected value for Dominguez and Pérez increased slightly (net +0.3 fWAR).

Does this mean "there's no point in signing an ace?" Of course not-- but from a "risk diversification" standpoint, it does suggest that "multiple above-average players" may be a better choice than "one superstar" if both options are projected to provide the same amount of marginal value on the aggregate. (Still, even then this is more of an argument for preferring a rotation of "only #2-3 types" over "one real ace supported by a #3 type and three #4/5 types"-- right now, the Orioles are pretty much hoping that the multiple question marks in their pitching would pan out.)

Hopefully it is. Grayson just needs to stay healthy as it always seems he's on the IL at least once a season. He has the ace potential as he's definitely gotten better over the years. I'm just not always keen on trading away for ace's unless there's a good chance that we can or try hard to resign him. I would've loved to have kept Burnes but I just honestly think he wanted to be on the west coast and it would've taken a much higher offer from us to entice him to stay. And I'm glad we didn't trade for Cease as I think he'd be another one and done and wasn't likely going to be the one piece to put the team over the top and probably wouldn't have wanted to resign here anyways.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Interestingly enough, we might have another case where "injuries are an equalizer" [...]

And it's now confirmed that Gerrit Cole will need Tommy John surgery after all, which is unfortunate even though this does reduce the talent level gap to a rounding error on paper (47.9 team fWAR for the 2025 Yankees vs. 47.7 for the Orioles):

For the Yankees:

• Cole: 3.0 fWAR => 0.0 (-183 IP); Gil: 1.7 fWAR => 1.0 (-59 IP); net -3.7 fWAR
  
  
• These innings are mostly expected to go to Marcus Stroman (+73 IP, +0.6 fWAR), Clarke Schmidt (+26 IP, +0.4 fWAR), Will Warren (+85 IP, +1.1 fWAR), and Carlos Carrasco (+33 IP, +0.2 fWAR); another 0.2 fWAR was apparently lost due to a slight increase of replacement-level bullpen usage. The result is -1.6 fWAR on the aggregate from pitching.

For the Orioles:

• Rodriguez: 2.6 fWAR => 2.2 (-21 IP, which suggests a slightly longer absence); Kittredge: Still 0.3 fWAR => 0.1 fWAR (-28 IP); net -0.6 fWAR
  
  
• The starting innings are still expected to go to Kremer / Sugano / Povich for +0.2 fWAR, while the updated projections for the bullpen added another 0.3 fWAR for Dominguez and Pérez for some unknown. The result is -0.1 fWAR on the aggregate from pitching.

---

So the lesson here is perhaps the adage "availability is the best ability"-- in the sense that avoiding injuries in the first place could potentially produce more marginal value than acquring "better" players. In the case of the 2025 Orioles, that means preventing Rodriguez's situation from worsening to the point of needing a Tommy John surgery himself as well (if possible), and maybe applying more "load management" as needed (especially for pitchers, plus Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson given the precedent of what happened during the 2024 season when they couldn't get enough rest). To put it more bluntly: "Better lose a game than to lose a player for the season."