2024 Season Schedule

[Mingo]

A couple days ago before even seeing the actual schedule, just based on their slate of opponents, I said an 8-9 finish is where I see this year's team. I do think there's some optimism in that. We have one of a) a rookie b) a reclamation project or c) and all out project starting at QB. I am guessing Nix will be the starter (the other two would have to greatly distance themselves from him in camp and pre-season). Nix is the future and the future is now.

Even with a rookie, I think our offense is going to be more functional than last year. A rookie who is the right fit for an offense makes for a better offense than a veteran who isn't.

Still, I am not sold on our defense or our DC. I was on the "fire Vance" wagon after the 70-20 game. Then I was on the redemption wagon after Vance led a defense powered win streak that saw this team claw back into the conversation mid-way through the season. Then it all fell apart again.

What defense are we going to get this year? What DC are we going to get? Will we see the early and late season Broncos defense or something closer to mid-season. I really don't know and that's making it hard for me to be more optimistic than 8-9. Maybe 9-8.

The last year under Hackenwhatever the Broncos averaged 16.9 points a game. Payton's first year the Broncos averaged 21.0 points a game. Payton is going for 24 points per game - plus - which would put the Broncos offense in the top tier of NFL offenses. I used those stats to establish the context that you might want a different defensive scheme in support of an offense that scores 16.9 points a game and one that can put up more than 24 points a game. VJ's defensive goal is to obtain turnovers - and Fangio's goal was to hold to fewest points against. Sean Peyton chose the coaching direction he wanted to go in. In VJ's first year the Broncos moved up to 10th in the NFL in turnover ratio at plus 4. In support of this the Broncos selected talent in the draft at Edge and Offense ball handlers.

We all got used to the Fangio style and success on Defense and now use that as a standard to compare to the defense we are watching. I'm suggesting the philosophy has changed on defense and we should judge VJ on the turnover production. Fangio's defenses held opposing teams to FG tries instead of scoring TD and with VJ they are hoping for 14 point swings - 10 point swings with snatching a turnover.

 

[iknowftbll]

The last year under Hackenwhatever the Broncos averaged 16.9 points a game. Payton's first year the Broncos averaged 21.0 points a game. Payton is going for 24 points per game - plus - which would put the Broncos offense in the top tier of NFL offenses. I used those stats to establish the context that you might want a different defensive scheme in support of an offense that scores 16.9 points a game and one that can put up more than 24 points a game. VJ's defensive goal is to obtain turnovers - and Fangio's goal was to hold to fewest points against. Sean Peyton chose the coaching direction he wanted to go in. In VJ's first year the Broncos moved up to 10th in the NFL in turnover ratio at plus 4. In support of this the Broncos selected talent in the draft at Edge and Offense ball handlers.

We all got used to the Fangio style and success on Defense and now use that as a standard to compare to the defense we are watching. I'm suggesting the philosophy has changed on defense and we should judge VJ on the turnover production. Fangio's defenses held opposing teams to FG tries instead of scoring TD and with VJ they are hoping for 14 point swings - 10 point swings with snatching a turnover.

You are probably on to something here. And if it works, if the defense can create a lot of turnovers and point swings, great! I don't care about where they're ranked. But what I do care about is no more 70 point performances. Which was an outlier, I realize. A generational outlier. Outside of that outlier the Broncos defense allowed about 21 PPG last season, which I consider to be functional in this era. So maybe it's not as bad as I think.

I might be on the brink of off-season-optimism-ing myself into believing this team can get to 10 wins!

 

[iknowftbll]

Broncos schedule provides the second worst rest edge in NFL

An analysis of rest edge on a team-by-team basis on the schedule shows the Denver Broncos were one of the teams hurt the most by how the games were scheduled.

www.milehighreport.com

Interesting way to analyze the schedule. I definitely feel it's a tough slate, especially how they have it arranged. But I also think if ever there was a season to have this schedule it's this one. This is exactly why I feel Nix needs to be the week 1 starter and hold that role through the season. It's a season where only the most optimistic of fans are expecting a playoff run. I consider myself an optimistic fan and I think 8-9 or 9-8 would be a good season for this team.

This schedule, with all the road games, the late bye, is tough. Some have voiced concern about a rookie QB being "mentally destroyed" by this season. If we have a QB who can be mentally destroyed by adversity in 1 year then we've chosen the wrong guy. I'd like to believe Nix is tougher than that, and I think his maturity and number of starts in college supports that belief.

I really don't know what to expect. I realize as fans we are always going to find something to complain about (referees, schedule, etc) but one thing I promise you is nobody inside the Broncos facilities are complaining. This year may not be the best year in terms of W-L but I think it's the year they really turn this around.

 

[Mountain Bronco]

The defense concerns me. I think the bounces on turnovers during the winning streak last year masked some real serious issues across the board, plus I just don't see the team having the disrupters necessary to consistently cause turnovers. Outside of PS2 we are just ok but not at all spectacular at any defensive position or position group. Then there is the DC which I don't have a lot of faith in to be honest. He just hasn't consistently produced good defenses in the NFL. I expect the offense to be improved overall, but probably inconsistent as it is pretty young at spots especially QB which just leads to inconsistent play. I think the team overall is headed in a good direction; however, I just don't know if it will translate to wins this coming year. Last year Vegas pegged the Broncos at 8.5 wins which was spot on and this year 5.5. I like the over but would be really surprised if we are over .500 this year.

 

[Mingo]

The defense concerns me. I think the bounces on turnovers during the winning streak last year masked some real serious issues across the board, plus I just don't see the team having the disrupters necessary to consistently cause turnovers. Outside of PS2 we are just ok but not at all spectacular at any defensive position or position group. Then there is the DC which I don't have a lot of faith in to be honest. He just hasn't consistently produced good defenses in the NFL. I expect the offense to be improved overall, but probably inconsistent as it is pretty young at spots especially QB which just leads to inconsistent play. I think the team overall is headed in a good direction; however, I just don't know if it will translate to wins this coming year. Last year Vegas pegged the Broncos at 8.5 wins which was spot on and this year 5.5. I like the over but would be really surprised if we are over .500 this year.

All valid points and well reasoned. I was thinking lately the over of 5.5 on the Broncos' season is a great bet.

Sir - you are looking at the best and only genuine University of Texas defensive backfield ever accumulated in the pro game. 4 or 5 of these guys go back 6-8 years of playing together. I only mention it because it is so odd, but fun odd. Kind of lost in it all is that old longhorn and new Bronco Brandon Jones - was a great value signing. He is not as good as Simmons, but he also is not worth only 1/5 what Simmons wants. This change is a salary cap Cha Ching of epic proportions.

Also - give it to the Broncos for ingenuity in acquiring John Franklin-Myers and signing Malcom Roach.