2024 Post-Mortem

[calsnowskier]

The season is over. Not mathematically, but realistically.

So, why? What went wrong, specifically? Why did we all come into this season with such high expectations, and then watch… that?

The SP in the first half was atrocious. But we fully expected that going in. We knew that Ray and Cobb were going to be 2nd half adds and that Snell missed ST and was going to have a rough start.

Lee was an unknown going in, and his loss hurt, but we found Ramos, almost entirely because Lee went down. And when Lee did play, he wasn’t lighting the house on fire.

We found 2 STUD bats out our system (Ramos, Fitz).

Chappy is arguably the best 3B in the NL.

Wade was hurt, but when he played (earlier, at least), he put up near all star numbers. Estrada had a year so bad that he lost his roster spot with us. Ahmed gave us what we expected. Lucky never kicked in the door. Bailey’s bat disappeared (but his glove is platinum level). Doval crashed and burned, but Walker stepped up and doesn’t look like he will give the job back. The bully as a whole has been outstanding. Soler was a complete bust. Backup catcher has been a bust (possibly leading to Bailey’s off year).

I just wonder what happened that caused the team to play SOOO bad? I see no reason for the dramatic swing away from expectations.

COULD it have been BoMel? I have been a big defender of his (at least in my head, if not in posts), but maybe I need to accept the fact he is/was part of the problem.

 

[Stokes1931]

The season is over. Not mathematically, but realistically.

So, why? What went wrong, specifically? Why did we all come into this season with such high expectations, and then watch… that?

The SP in the first half was atrocious. But we fully expected that going in. We knew that Ray and Cobb were going to be 2nd half adds and that Snell missed ST and was going to have a rough start.

Lee was an unknown going in, and his loss hurt, but we found Ramos, almost entirely because Lee went down. And when Lee did play, he wasn’t lighting the house on fire.

We found 2 STUD bats out our system (Ramos, Fitz).

Chappy is arguably the best 3B in the NL.

Wade was hurt, but when he played (earlier, at least), he put up near all star numbers. Estrada had a year so bad that he lost his roster spot with us. Ahmed gave us what we expected. Lucky never kicked in the door. Bailey’s bat disappeared (but his glove is platinum level). Doval crashed and burned, but Walker stepped up and doesn’t look like he will give the job back. The bully as a whole has been outstanding. Soler was a complete bust. Backup catcher has been a bust (possibly leading to Bailey’s off year).

I just wonder what happened that caused the team to play SOOO bad? I see no reason for the dramatic swing away from expectations.

COULD it have been BoMel? I have been a big defender of his (at least in my head, if not in posts), but maybe I need to accept the fact he is/was part of the problem.

Whiteside's fault.

Giants were counting on a lot of "what ifs" and most of them didn't work. Unlike in 2021 when everything worked.

As you say, those failed "what ifs' produced some good surprises. From all reports, the locker room is solid, and there appears no issues with players getting along. One thing we lack is an Alpha hitter who makes the other hitters around him better. I don't know why they gave up on Lucy so early. And when he was recalled he got just a few at bats. Play the man!

I don't think this team is BAD. They are just mediocre (as Grant wrote about the other day). They are a .500 team. Not thrilling. Not boring. Win some. Lose some. Win 3. Lose 4. Win 2. Lose 1. They are good enough to win, and not good enough not to lose. Mediocre.

Perhaps one more year of BoMel will turn this around? He's not Boch. He's not Kap. Is he the guy? The disappointments are many. Conforto, Soler, etc.

Lots of questions. Not a lot of answers. I just don't sense a plan or an identity to the team.

I am heartened a little bit by the aggressive promotion of some players. Ramos and Fitz look legit (and so did Matos for about 10 games). I think there are some good players coming up through the system that just need some time to develop. That said, I am not sure another season like this one will be greeted with enthusiasm nor tolerance. The Giants have to find a way into the playoffs next year or heads will roll. We are spoiled, but having once tasted championships, we settle for nothing less. Until then, we expect more progress.

 

[SF11704]

2024 was a strange year for us SF giant fans. For me it all started with the Othani and Yamamota sweepstakes. Thought we had a good shot going in but looking back now I'm not sure we were ever in the running. Sort of reminded me of the Judge episode the year before. All of these choices would have instantly become the face of the Giants but sadly none signed with us. We shifted to Chapman, Solar and Snell. Also top of the line players but I have always viewed Chapman and Snell as 'laundry '. Both have opt outs. Hard for me to really embrace a player that is always looking for thier next team. Sort of viewed us a place holders. As Stokes noted .... we need a team leader and a visible 'face' of the Giants. I like Webb but I just don't see him in that role. ..

 

[LHG]

The season is over. Not mathematically, but realistically.

So, why? What went wrong, specifically? Why did we all come into this season with such high expectations, and then watch… that?

The SP in the first half was atrocious. But we fully expected that going in. We knew that Ray and Cobb were going to be 2nd half adds and that Snell missed ST and was going to have a rough start.

Lee was an unknown going in, and his loss hurt, but we found Ramos, almost entirely because Lee went down. And when Lee did play, he wasn’t lighting the house on fire.

We found 2 STUD bats out our system (Ramos, Fitz).

Chappy is arguably the best 3B in the NL.

Wade was hurt, but when he played (earlier, at least), he put up near all star numbers. Estrada had a year so bad that he lost his roster spot with us. Ahmed gave us what we expected. Lucky never kicked in the door. Bailey’s bat disappeared (but his glove is platinum level). Doval crashed and burned, but Walker stepped up and doesn’t look like he will give the job back. The bully as a whole has been outstanding. Soler was a complete bust. Backup catcher has been a bust (possibly leading to Bailey’s off year).

I just wonder what happened that caused the team to play SOOO bad? I see no reason for the dramatic swing away from expectations.

COULD it have been BoMel? I have been a big defender of his (at least in my head, if not in posts), but maybe I need to accept the fact he is/was part of the problem.

I did get caught up with some of the excitement but I was tentative. I didn't think most of the free agents would work out. Chapman has surprised me and Snell has given more than I expected in the 2nd half but his 1st half was worse than I expected. I had my doubts about Lee. Korean hitters don't usually work out in the US, their production can be close to 200 points lower in OPS but he is young. The jury is still out on him. Soler, I didn't know what to think. He was worse that I probably envisioned the down side being on him.
There have been a lot of hitters on this team that went into a collective swoon in the 2nd half, Estrada (well the full year for him), Wade, Bailey, Ramos come to mind without even looking.
I just don't think this team ever played at full strength. The starting pitching was bad in the first half, like you mentioned. The hitting got worse in the 2nd half. I think the relief staff has been more spotty than you may think. Too many guys with ERAs hovering around 4. It did look really good when the starting rotation was in shambles but kind of went to pot when that group started getting better. All that makes for a .500 team.
As for the manager, I know that there are fans who want him gone now. I find it interesting that he got the team (thus far) to about the same record that the previous manager had for most years. It seems easy to blame the FO but I think there is something deeper. Is it just coincidence that the team couldn't get all parts firing on all cylinders at the same time or is there some deeper issue at play that needs to be worked on at a philosophical level? I don't know.

 

[stanford the manford]

..........

Giants were counting on a lot of "what ifs" and most of them didn't work. Unlike in 2021 when everything worked.

........

This sums it up for me. Injuries and Snelk's throwaway 1st 1/2.

I haven't seen BoMel moving the team towards a winning identity. Hopefully that'll change with next year's roster. Potential to be a decent running team with JHL/Fitz/Chappy. Need the middle of the line-up to hit station to station and figure out how to actually drive in a run.

You need some offensive studs at some point, real all-stars. We've openings at 1st and 2nd (maybe short and if Fitz could transition to 2nd). Feel pretty good about the outfield tho it's subject to Ramos/Matos/McCray sliding. Having a solid Murphy to spell PB is needed.

Snell needs to be re-signed. Can't let a/the preeminent pitcher leave when you're a pitch/defense team.

'24 was a hope to get into the playoffs. '25 is looking to be about the same

Still found the year to be at least interesting with some hope we're building toward something. That more than I can say about recent seasons

 

[calsnowskier]

This sums it up for me. Injuries and Snelk's throwaway 1st 1/2.

I haven't seen BoMel moving the team towards a winning identity. Hopefully that'll change with next year's roster. Potential to be a decent running team with JHL/Fitz/Chappy. Need the middle of the line-up to hit station to station and figure out how to actually drive in a run.

You need some offensive studs at some point, real all-stars. We've openings at 1st and 2nd (maybe short and if Fitz could transition to 2nd). Feel pretty good about the outfield tho it's subject to Ramos/Matos/McCray sliding. Having a solid Murphy to spell PB is needed.

Snell needs to be re-signed. Can't let a/the preeminent pitcher leave when you're a pitch/defense team.

'24 was a hope to get into the playoffs. '25 is looking to be about the same

Still found the year to be at least interesting with some hope we're building toward something. That more than I can say about recent seasons

I think keeping Chappy is more important than keeping Snell. Chap has been quite vocal about wanting to stay. That, alone, makes him a keeper. As you said, we need people who WANT to be here. I don’t get that sense from Snell. He is a merc. If we sign him, at any price, of course the fan in me will be excited. But the logical planner in me doesn’t think that will be smart, given the cost it will carry.

 

[SF11704]

I think keeping Chappy is more important than keeping Snell. Chap has been quite vocal about wanting to stay. That, alone, makes him a keeper. As you said, we need people who WANT to be here. I don’t get that sense from Snell. He is a merc. If we sign him, at any price, of course the fan in me will be excited. But the logical planner in me doesn’t think that will be smart, given the cost it will carry.

Agree 100%. Chapman and Ramos will provide a rather formidable duo. I also think that Chapman would very well be the team leader we need.
I think Snell woud be a great acquisition but not with a 5 year window. For me it's the time frame that's the gamble. Not much wiggle room in performance expectations for 30M a year. Just think there maybe better suited options for the money.
Not sure about BoMel either. We have a lot of youth that may work their way to the 'show' in the next year or so. You need a special type of manager to work with them. I don't really know how BoMel is with kids. Guess qe will see.

 

[msgkings322]

The season is over. Not mathematically, but realistically.

So, why? What went wrong, specifically? Why did we all come into this season with such high expectations, and then watch… that?

The SP in the first half was atrocious. But we fully expected that going in. We knew that Ray and Cobb were going to be 2nd half adds and that Snell missed ST and was going to have a rough start.

Lee was an unknown going in, and his loss hurt, but we found Ramos, almost entirely because Lee went down. And when Lee did play, he wasn’t lighting the house on fire.

We found 2 STUD bats out our system (Ramos, Fitz).

Chappy is arguably the best 3B in the NL.

Wade was hurt, but when he played (earlier, at least), he put up near all star numbers. Estrada had a year so bad that he lost his roster spot with us. Ahmed gave us what we expected. Lucky never kicked in the door. Bailey’s bat disappeared (but his glove is platinum level). Doval crashed and burned, but Walker stepped up and doesn’t look like he will give the job back. The bully as a whole has been outstanding. Soler was a complete bust. Backup catcher has been a bust (possibly leading to Bailey’s off year).

I just wonder what happened that caused the team to play SOOO bad? I see no reason for the dramatic swing away from expectations.

COULD it have been BoMel? I have been a big defender of his (at least in my head, if not in posts), but maybe I need to accept the fact he is/was part of the problem.

They're a .500 team though, so not SOOOO bad. We just expected better so we feel bad about it. They turned out to be meh, again.

And we didn't expect THAT much better, most of us were in the mid 80s wins with maybe a 3rd wild card. We won't finish that far from there.

What went wrong? Injuries as always. Some big time regression from a few hitters. A first half with hardly any healthy big name pitchers.

It's not BoMel IMO, managers don't matter that much. For all we know he is why they didn't do even worse.

Sometimes you just don't perform up to expectations

 

[stanford the manford]

I think keeping Chappy is more important than keeping Snell. Chap has been quite vocal about wanting to stay. That, alone, makes him a keeper. As you said, we need people who WANT to be here. I don’t get that sense from Snell. He is a merc. If we sign him, at any price, of course the fan in me will be excited. But the logical planner in me doesn’t think that will be smart, given the cost it will carry.

I just assumed Chappy will return. I'd go all out on Snelk

 

[tzill]

 

[tzill]

Jerar Encarnación's average bat speed of 76.7 MPH leads Giants hitters in 2024. There's a good amount of power in that bat and if he's able to get a little more lift in his swing, that power would show up more than it has so far.

 

[sf1giantfan]

This sums it up for me. Injuries and Snelk's throwaway 1st 1/2.

I haven't seen BoMel moving the team towards a winning identity. Hopefully that'll change with next year's roster. Potential to be a decent running team with JHL/Fitz/Chappy. Need the middle of the line-up to hit station to station and figure out how to actually drive in a run.

You need some offensive studs at some point, real all-stars. We've openings at 1st and 2nd (maybe short and if Fitz could transition to 2nd). Feel pretty good about the outfield tho it's subject to Ramos/Matos/McCray sliding. Having a solid Murphy to spell PB is needed.

Snell needs to be re-signed. Can't let a/the preeminent pitcher leave when you're a pitch/defense team.

'24 was a hope to get into the playoffs. '25 is looking to be about the same

Still found the year to be at least interesting with some hope we're building toward something. That more than I can say about recent seasons

If Zitz moves to 2nd that could lead us to sign The Pads Kim to play SS. They have a mutual with a $2 mil buyout, so he might be free. He is Lee’s best buddy in the whole world so maybe that will help them both perform better. Kim has speed to which will help our slow moving team along better. I’m ok with Wade and Canal holding down first until a special rookie fills it in 2026.

 

[LHG]

If Zitz moves to 2nd that could lead us to sign The Pads Kim to play SS. They have a mutual with a $2 mil buyout, so he might be free. He is Lee’s best buddy in the whole world so maybe that will help them both perform better. Kim has speed to which will help our slow moving team along better. I’m ok with Wade and Canal holding down first until a special rookie fills it in 2026.

Kim seems a bit overrated to me. He is a leaguer average hitter and good defensively, so I’m not saying he’s bad but people talk about him like he’s a superstar sometimes. Of course, maybe that glove puts him close but his bat isn’t that special.

 

[Stokes1931]

View attachment 372858

This is true for 2023

His 2024 season would be ranked 17th for Bonds.

Both rankings are solely based on OPS.

 

[calsnowskier]

This is true for 2023

His 2024 season would be ranked 17th for Bonds.

Both rankings are solely based on OPS.

Comparing different eras should be done with OPS+. How did this player do, when compared to other players of the same year? Some years, the ball travels better than other years. Comparing HRs hit in ‘03 to HRs hit in 1927 is pointless. But looking at how one player hit them when compared to the rest of the league tells us something.

When looking at OPS+, Ohtani’s ‘24 (177) would be Bonds’ 11th best season. It is Ohtani’s 2nd best season (‘23, 184; which would be Bonds’ 9th best season)

 

[tzill]

Comparing different eras should be done with OPS+. How did this player do, when compared to other players of the same year? Some years, the ball travels better than other years. Comparing HRs hit in ‘03 to HRs hit in 1927 is pointless. But looking at how one player hit them when compared to the rest of the league tells us something.

When looking at OPS+, Ohtani’s ‘24 (177) would be Bonds’ 11th best season. It is Ohtani’s 2nd best season (‘23, 184; which would be Bonds’ 9th best season)

Which makes this all the more impressive:

 

[calsnowskier]

Which makes this all the more impressive:

View attachment 372917

Chess on a checker board.

 

[LHG]

Which makes this all the more impressive:

View attachment 372917

Crazy to think that his 1935 season was still 19% better than the average MLB hitter that year.

 

[calsnowskier]

Crazy to think that his 1935 season was still 19% better than the average MLB hitter that year.

But look at those sorry-ass numbers he put up in ‘14.

FZ would have tried to get him through waivers.

 

[Stokes1931]

But look at those sorry-ass numbers he put up in ‘14.

FZ would have tried to get him through waivers.

I do believe in 1914-1917 he was primarily a pitcher.

From 1918-1919 he still pitched a lot, but began playing the field more.

From 1920-21 he rarely pitched (13 innings for the years combined)

From 1922-1935 he just hit. Man, did he hit.