2023 Free Agents

[Screamin12th]

Again, what are you defining as a big contract?

For Geno a big contract would be 25+ Million average per year.

When you break down the numbers and look at how lucky he was last season to not lead the league in Turnovers and the fact that for 8 of the 17 games he was the 23rd best QB or worse in the NFL it's not hard to understand he isn't worth much.

 

[flyerhawk]

For Geno a big contract would be 25+ Million average per year.

When you break down the numbers and look at how lucky he was last season to not lead the league in Turnovers and the fact that for 8 of the 17 games he was the 23rd best QB or worse in the NFL it's not hard to understand he isn't worth much.

One more time. Who would rather be our QB in 2023?

 

[Screamin12th]

One more time. Who would rather be our QB in 2023?

Someone different, Geno had a unbelievably lucky year. He was #2 in turnover worthy plays and yet only committed 14. They pushed the averages of the top 10 and that averaged 80% of the time those were turned into actual turnovers. Geno was a huge outlier as his average was 46% ( which brought the overall average down ). Even if you put him at 65% which is still 15% lower than the average he would have led the league in turnovers this past season with 25 INT's. Many of these guys in the top 10 also were Good QB's Like Allen and Burrow.

Why i like the turnover worthy plays stat is because if a ball bounces off the WR's hands and is picked off that isn't counted as a turn over worthy play.

read this

Geno Smith tweets that he'll be 'WAY better' after a full offseason

Smith might be feeling a bit defensive about his play, because he posted this after last night’s win.

seahawkswire.usatoday.com

 

[blstoker]

Someone different, Geno had a unbelievably lucky year. He was #2 in turnover worthy plays and yet only committed 14. They pushed the averages of the top 10 and that averaged 80% of the time those were turned into actual turnovers. Geno was a huge outlier as his average was 46% ( which brought the overall average down ). Even if you put him at 65% which is still 15% lower than the average he would have led the league in turnovers this past season with 25 INT's. Many of these guys in the top 10 also were Good QB's Like Allen and Burrow.

Why i like the turnover worthy plays stat is because if a ball bounces off the WR's hands and is picked off that isn't counted as a turn over worthy play.

It's like BABIP in baseball. It's possible for this number to carry (or drag) a player over the course of a year, but eventually these types of stats return to the norm.

 

[Screamin12th]

It's like BABIP in baseball. It's possible for this number to carry (or drag) a player over the course of a year, but eventually these types of stats return to the norm.

Yes and that return will hit like a ton of bricks because they will come back to normality hard. If Geno plays like he did this past season and nothing changed accept the luck evened out he would have had 25-28 INT's OH MY GOD!!

Brock & Salk were talking about this. Geno wont be as lucky again.

Seattles 2022 SOS ended up being one of the lowest in the NFL at .462 and going into next season they have a .517 and this takes into account the Bad Rams and Cards for 4 games. They still sit tied for 12th Hardest going into the 2023 season.

Geno will fall back to earth like the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs.

You know like a month ago i would have been ok resigning Geno for 20 million Max 25 with bonuses for play but now i am at the point with the knowledge i have gained through studying and I would rather they just let him walk and get us a 3rd round Comp pick in 2024.

Resign Lock for 5 Million for 2 years draft a QB in the 3rd and build up the piss poor defense. You got enough talent on the Offensive side to carry a QB especially if you go back to running the ball more allowing your defense ( the weakest part of the team ) to stay off the field for longer. Lets not have a ToP difference of 4+ Minutes every game on average.

 

[flyerhawk]

Someone different, Geno had a unbelievably lucky year. He was #2 in turnover worthy plays and yet only committed 14. They pushed the averages of the top 10 and that averaged 80% of the time those were turned into actual turnovers. Geno was a huge outlier as his average was 46% ( which brought the overall average down ). Even if you put him at 65% which is still 15% lower than the average he would have led the league in turnovers this past season with 25 INT's. Many of these guys in the top 10 also were Good QB's Like Allen and Burrow.

Why i like the turnover worthy plays stat is because if a ball bounces off the WR's hands and is picked off that isn't counted as a turn over worthy play.

read this

Geno Smith tweets that he'll be 'WAY better' after a full offseason

Smith might be feeling a bit defensive about his play, because he posted this after last night’s win.

seahawkswire.usatoday.com

Someone different isn't a player. It's a wish. If you think Lock is the guy then fine. Not much we can argue with. You think that the position is plug n play and the guy that lost the competition last year will do more or less the same. Not sure how much I buy into that TWP stat anyway. Says that Justin Fields had 21 TWP. But he had 16 fumbles and 11 interceptions. So he had an 128% TWP conversion. Josh Allen had 33 fumbles and picks and 33 TWPs. Which seems incredibly unlikely especially given how loose he is with the ball.

FTR, I picked those 2 players for a reason. Neither is known for their ball discipline but that stat would suggest that BOTH are just really unlikely.

 

[flyerhawk]

Resign Lock for 5 Million for 2 years draft a QB in the 3rd and build up the piss poor defense. You got enough talent on the Offensive side to carry a QB especially if you go back to running the ball more allowing your defense ( the weakest part of the team ) to stay off the field for longer.

And if Lock fails? Oh well? We can look forward to a good pick in 2024?

You are advocating for doing something that only shitty teams do because they have no choice.

 

[Screamin12th]

And if Lock fails? Oh well? We can look forward to a good pick in 2024?

You are advocating for doing something that only shitty teams do because they have no choice.

Sorry but the Hawks are a shitty team like it or not lol. Paying Geno over 25 million is a NO CHOICE situation. He will with out a doubt be a 62%-64% QB with 15+ INT's and most likely 20+ total turnovers in 2023 and strapping your team for a STUPID over priced contract. Read my saying below that says "If you follow blindly then you have no right to complain when lost."

How do you NOT see what people that get paid to not only see this but talk about it can see? I like to think of it like this, the talking head do a lot of that "talking" but some of them are right more often than wrong and Brock is one of them that is often right.

Again HOW DO YOU ignore the fact that Geno was careless with the ball at a rate only one person was higher than in the NFL? How is that acceptable to you? It isn't but the ONLY reason you accept it is because of pure dumb luck which Geno had his share of this WHOLE season. Also no it wasn't luck he created for himself when he had 6 Dropped INT's on the season. The AVERAGE of the top 10 in TURN OVER WORTHY PLAYS that actually turned into TURNOVERS was 80.6% Geno was at 46%. THAT wont hold up because "GENO" didn't change those numbers the opponents did.

You really should read that artical i linked because your reply tells me you didn't even look at it or didn't understand it.

 

[flyerhawk]

Sorry but the Hawks are a shitty team like it or not lol. Paying Geno over 25 million is a NO CHOICE situation. He will with out a doubt be a 62%-64% QB with 15+ INT's and most likely 20+ total turnovers in 2023 and strapping your team for a STUPID over priced contract. Read my saying below that says "If you follow blindly then you have no right to complain when lost."

How do you NOT see what people that get paid to not only see this but talk about it can see? I like to think of it like this, the talking head do a lot of that "talking" but some of them are right more often than wrong and Brock is one of them that is often right.

Again HOW DO YOU ignore the fact that Geno was careless with the ball at a rate only one person was higher than in the NFL? How is that acceptable to you? It isn't but the ONLY reason you accept it is because of pure dumb luck which Geno had his share of this WHOLE season. Also no it wasn't luck he created for himself when he had 6 Dropped INT's on the season. The AVERAGE of the top 10 in TURN OVER WORTHY PLAYS that actually turned into TURNOVERS was 80.6% Geno was at 46%. THAT wont hold up because "GENO" didn't change those numbers the opponents did.

You are latching onto 1 one subjective stat that CLEARLY has some problems. But if you wish to say he was bad but lucky this year, more power to you. I'm sure that Drew Lock will prove everyone wrong next year.

I've probably said a half dozen times that I'm not arguing for how great Geno was. I've repeatedly said that Geno offers us the best chance to succeed next season.

 

[Screamin12th]

You are latching onto 1 one subjective stat that CLEARLY has some problems. But if you wish to say he was bad but lucky this year, more power to you. I'm sure that Drew Lock will prove everyone wrong next year.

I've probably said a half dozen times that I'm not arguing for how great Geno was. I've repeatedly said that Geno offers us the best chance to succeed next season.

List a problem with Turnover worthy plays? you obviously don't know how it works.

TORNOVER WORTHY PLAYS: a pass that has a high percentage chance to be intercepted or a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling.

It's that simple and they are 80% right most of the time as 80% is the average that these plays turn into turnovers yet Geno was sitting at an absurdly low rate and a unsustainable one at 46%. Had Geno been at just 65% which is still absurdly low he would have led the NFL in turnovers and had he be closer to the league average of 80% he would have had over 34 TO's! ( 2 per game )

 

[Screamin12th]

what's funny and telling is Geno's average is close to 2 Turnovers per game till this past season.

Like that old saying some times it's better to be lucky than good. Geno was VERY VERY VERY Lucky this past season and people need to understand that.

Geno knows this and it's the reason he says " with a whole offseason i will be even better next year"
Well the sad truth is he had all offseason last year as Wilson was traded in March. Lock never got to split reps in practice as Geno ALWAYS was with the #1 and got #1 reps as stated repeatedly by the reporters at the practices.

Geno is blowing smoke. He has a higher chance of getting another DUI than repeating what he did this past season.

 

[flyerhawk]

List a problem with Turnover worthy plays? you obviously don't know how it works.

TORNOVER WORTHY PLAYS: a pass that has a high percentage chance to be intercepted or a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling.

It's that simple and they are 80% right most of the time as 80% is the average that these plays turn into turnovers yet Geno was sitting at an absurdly low rate and a unsustainable one at 46%. Had Geno been at just 65% which is still absurdly low he would have led the NFL in turnovers and had he be closer to the league average of 80% he would have had over 30 INT'S!

I know how to read. And I already addressed it..

Says that Justin Fields had 21 TWP. But he had 16 fumbles and 11 interceptions. So he had an 128% TWP conversion. Josh Allen had 33 fumbles and picks and 33 TWPs. Which seems incredibly unlikely especially given how loose he is with the ball.

So according to the TWP Justin Fields was actually very disciplined with throwing the ball and nearly half of his picks were not his fault and he didn't throw any passes that were interception worthy. Unless the grader was saying that some of his fumbles didn't count.

But, sure, let's treat that stat as gospel.

 

[Screamin12th]

3.7% of Justin Fields’ pass attempts resulted in a turnover-worthy play.
You are looking at the wrong numbers from some place or not understanding the break down.
I dont know where you got that "Says that Justin Fields had 21 TWP. But he had 16 fumbles and 11 interceptions. So he had an 128% TWP conversion. Josh Allen had 33 fumbles and picks and 33 TWPs. Which seems incredibly unlikely especially given how loose he is with the ball."

Go to PFF and look up the numbers for yourself as it's a much better source of info than word of mouth off random sights you don't even want to link.

Oh BTW Geno was at 4.6% of his pass attempts. Mahomes, Allen and Burrow were all in the top 10 of turnover worthy plays. Many of the best QB's were and they were around that 80% mark. Geno 46% you telling me Geno is better than those guys with turnovers or just lucky because i know what i would say and that was he was VERY lucky this past season.

 

[Anointed One]

Like that old saying some times it's better to be lucky than good. Geno was VERY VERY VERY Lucky this past season and people need to understand that.

Why do you feel he was lucky? Not saying any of this to justify a contract just responding to the fact that you feel he was lucky...

• For every 5.3 pass attempts, Geno threw a TD... 7th in the NFL... That's not lucky...
• For every 1.9 pass attempts, Geno threw a INT... 11th in the NFL...
• #1 in the league in completion %; #7 in pass attempts... That's not lucky...
• 7.5 yards per pass attempt.. 9th in the NFL... So he obviously wasn't just dinking and dunkings to inflate that Completion %
• QBR - 6th in the NFL

Do you feel that these throws were lucky? I guess i'm just trying to understand what you mean by lucky...

Top 10 Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith plays | 2022 season

 

[Screamin12th]

Also not every INT is a turnover worthy play if it was batted up into the Air By the WR

 

[Screamin12th]

Why do you feel he was lucky? Not saying any of this to justify a contract just responding to the fact that you feel he was lucky...

• For every 5.3 pass attempts, Geno threw a TD... 7th in the NFL... That's not lucky...
• For every 1.9 pass attempts, Geno threw a INT... 11th in the NFL...
• #1 in the league in completion %; #7 in pass attempts... That's not lucky...
• 7.5 yards per pass attempt.. 9th in the NFL... So he obviously wasn't just dinking and dunkings to inflate that Completion %
• QBR - 6th in the NFL

Do you feel that these throws were lucky? I guess i'm just trying to understand what you mean by lucky...

Top 10 Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith plays | 2022 season

These were plays where a Defensive player should have recovered the ball but didn't because they either dropped it ( INT ) or smacked the fumble out of bounds. A ball batted into the Air by a offensive player is not counted as a turnover worthy play for the QB but does count as one for the WR. It's a excellent stat for being able to remove luck out of the situation because it really shows how lucky or unlucky someone is getting on plays that should always result in a turnover. The conversion rate is over 80% meaning they are right 80% of the time. When you are at 46% you were EXTEREMLY lucky. Geno was #2 in most turnover worthy plays in the NFL in 2022. Many of your better QB's are in that top 10 but they are always near or around 80%. Again Geno was at 46% in a stat that is not sustainable because "GENO" had no control over the Defense Not converting.

 

[flyerhawk]

3.7% of Justin Fields’ pass attempts resulted in a turnover-worthy play.
You are looking at the wrong numbers from some place or not understanding the break down.
I dont know where you got that "Says that Justin Fields had 21 TWP. But he had 16 fumbles and 11 interceptions. So he had an 128% TWP conversion. Josh Allen had 33 fumbles and picks and 33 TWPs. Which seems incredibly unlikely especially given how loose he is with the ball."

Go to PFF and look up the numbers for yourself as it's a much better source of info than word of mouth off random sights you don't even want to link.

Oh BTW Geno was at 4.6% of his pass attempts. Mahomes, Allen and Burrow were all in the top 10 of turnover worthy plays. Many of the best QB's were and they were around that 80% mark. Geno 46% you telling me Geno is better than those guys with turnovers or just lucky because i know what i would say and that was he was VERY lucky this past season.

TWP is a subjective measurement that the PFF grader gives on each play. The grader determines if a pass was turnover worthy or, I guess, if a fumble was turnover worthy because the QB was responsible.

The problem is that the number is highly erratic statistically. If it were reliably reported than virtually EVERY QB should have a considerably higher TWP count than actual turnovers. EVERY QB throws interception worthy passes that are simply dropped by the defender or the defender never saw. It's part of the game.

But according to PFF, Justin Fields who had 16 fumbles, to lead the league, and 11 interceptions only had 21 turnover worthy plays. That means that the PFF grader actually thought that Fields was not responsible for 6 of his ints/fumbles and that he didn't have any interception worthy passes that weren't turnovers. Does that seriously make sense to you?

I like PFF as it does provide data when data is often available. But it's subjective data is just that. Subjective. If you want to say that Geno got away with some plays, sure. That's fine. I'd even be willing to agree that he was luckier than other QBs last year. But relying on highly dubious metrics like TWP and extrapolating based on them is a fool's errand.

 

[flyerhawk]

Also not every INT is a turnover worthy play if it was batted up into the Air By the WR

Sure. Some interceptions are bad luck. Just as some non-interceptions are good luck.

Fumbles, not to be confused with fumbles lost, are not luck. They are a product of good defense and poor execution by the offense.

 

[Screamin12th]

But according to PFF, Justin Fields who had 16 fumbles, to lead the league, and 11 interceptions only had 21 turnover worthy plays. That means that the PFF grader actually thought that Fields was not responsible for 6 of his ints/fumbles and that he didn't have any interception worthy passes that weren't turnovers. Does that seriously make sense to you?

yes it makes 100% sense if you actually understand it. Not all his fumbles were cause by him carrying the ball "Loosely" that is like holding it like a loaf of bread. When a player forces a fumble on a great tackle and smacks the ball out that doesn't count as a TWP. BINGO understand now. If a QB throws the ball and it's batted up into the air by the WR/TE/RB and it's intercepted that doesn't count as a turnover worthy play for the QB even though it goes as a INT? Understand now? No? of course because it goes against everything you stand for lol. In other words you can have more turnovers than actual turnover worthy plays because not every "turnover" from the QB was his fault ( batted balls or just good play at smacking a ball out of his hand when running and the ball tucked away )

Also like i stated before the mean average is 80% of the turnover worthy plays actually turn into turnovers. Meaning 20% of the time the defenders drop the ball or make a mistake and dont recover it. for Geno that 20% turned into 54% ... More than double the average almost triple of what is normal. Geno had a VERY lucky year, that WILL NOT continue. Imagine flipping a coin 10 times and it lands on heads every time? Ok now do it 100 times will you get 100 heads? No you wont and thats what Geno would need to do basically to repeat what he did in this area last season.

Heads and tails is 50/50 a ball that is in a defenders hands for a INT is not 50/50 it's closer to 80% INT's and 20% Drops for Geno in 2022 it was 40% int's 60% dropped.

 

[flyerhawk]

yes it makes 100% sense if you actually understand it. Not all his fumbles were cause by him carrying the ball "Loosely" that is like holding it like a loaf of bread. When a player forces a fumble on a great tackle and smacks the ball out that doesn't count as a TWP. BINGO understand now. If a QB throws the ball and it's batted up into the air by the WR/TE/RB and it's intercepted that doesn't count as a turnover worthy play for the QB even though it goes as a INT? Understand now? No? of course because it goes against everything you stand for lol. In other words you can have more turnovers than actual turnover worthy plays because not every "turnover" from the QB was his fault ( batted balls or just good play at smacking a ball out of his hand when running and the ball tucked away )

Yeah I understand the premise. You think that Geno Smith was the worst QB in the NFL when it comes to turnover worthy plays. Not much I can do with that sort of belief.

You watched the Seahawks games, right?

Also like i stated before the mean average is 80% of the turnover worthy plays actually turn into turnovers. Meaning 20% of the time the defenders drop the ball or make a mistake and dont recover it. for Geno that 20% turned into 54% ... More than double the average almost triple of what is normal. Geno had a VERY lucky year, that WILL NOT continue. Imagine flipping a coin 10 times and it lands on heads every time? Ok now do it 100 times will you get 100 heads? No you wont and thats what Geno would need to do basically to repeat what he did in this area last season.

Heads and tails is 50/50 a ball that is in a defenders hands for a INT is not 50/50 it's closer to 80% INT's and 20% Drops for Geno in 2022 it was 40% int's 60% dropped.

If the metric only cares about fumbles lost it is actually a worse metric than I realized. I figure by the time we get to free agency some of you will be arguing he was the luckiest/worst QB of all time.