2023 Free Agents

[Screamin12th]

Yeah I understand the premise. You think that Geno Smith was the worst QB in the NFL when it comes to turnover worthy plays. Not much I can do with that sort of belief.

You watched the Seahawks games, right?



If the metric only cares about fumbles lost it is actually a worse metric than I realized. I figure by the time we get to free agency some of you will be arguing he was the luckiest/worst QB of all time.

See you try and flip it agian. Now I never said he was the worst QB ever but he was the LUCKIEST QB this past season and at a really unheard of rate. Imagine this, Tyler Locket drops 60% of his passes and only catches 40% of them over a course of a season. Is that because Tyler lockett sucks at catching? No his averages prove that was just a unlucky season. Now lets take it off the averages of all the WR and it says that he should have caught 80% based on the averages and 20% drops ok this is the mean average and it's trackable and once again points to a rough and unlucky season. TWP points out the averages and it points to Geno having crazy luck. How you ask? Ok sit down and actually take this in.

Every QB in the league has Turnover worthy plays, but on the average only a little over 80% of these plays actually turn into turnovers. This part you understand right? Drops and such. But still the average for almost everyone is right around that 80% So everyone had about the same luck, then you got one person the outlier which in this case is Geno. Geno's TWP only resulted in 46% turnover rate, WELL below the normal and acceptable rate. There is NOTHING in this that is based on Geno's skill AT ALL other than the amount of time he committed these TWP ( which he had the 2nd most in the NFL ) He did not make these defenders drop the ball because he lubed it up or something. Geno had an outstanding year but he also had outstanding luck that no other QB got to experience this season. Now lets just say These TWP actually fell into the averages like 90% of the league then Geno has 30 TD still but he also has 34 Turnovers. YAY Geno passed for 4,300 yards 30 TD and had 34 total turnovers. Is that acceptable to you? Because on any average normal year thats what would have happened.

You don't reward people for luck you reward them for skill and this past season Geno had more luck than skill in his final numbers. It's a strange and rare occurrence but it has happened before. Foles and Rex Grossman come to mind.

 

[flyerhawk]

See you try and flip it agian. Now I never said he was the worst QB ever but he was the LUCKIEST QB this past season and at a really unheard of rate. Imagine this, Tyler Locket drops 60% of his passes and only catches 40% of them over a course of a season. Is that because Tyler lockett sucks at catching? No his averages prove that was just a unlucky season. Now lets take it off the averages of all the WR and it says that he should have caught 80% based on the averages and 20% drops ok this is the mean average and it's trackable and once again points to a rough and unlucky season. TWP points out the averages and it points to Geno having crazy luck. How you ask? Ok sit down and actually take this in.

You said that if Geno wasn't lucky last year he would have had 30+ turnovers. That's worst in the league bad. You are playing with percentages of small sample sizes.

Every QB in the league has Turnover worthy plays, but on the average only a little over 80% of these plays actually turn into turnovers. This part you understand right? Drops and such. But still the average for almost everyone is right around that 80% So everyone had about the same luck, then you got one person the outlier which in this case is Geno. Geno's TWP only resulted in 46% turnover rate, WELL below the normal and acceptable rate. There is NOTHING in this that is based on Geno's skill AT ALL other than the amount of time he committed these TWP ( which he had the 2nd most in the NFL ) He did not make these defenders drop the ball because he lubed it up or something. Geno had an outstanding year but he also had outstanding luck that no other QB got to experience this season. Now lets just say These TWP actually fell into the averages like 90% of the league then Geno has 30 TD still but he also has 34 Turnovers. YAY Geno passed for 4,300 yards 30 TD and had 34 total turnovers. Is that acceptable to you? Because on any average normal year thats what would have happened.

You can't rely on averages when you have people that exceed 100%. You are screwing your own head up with all the numbers you are throwing around. I have no idea where you are getting your numbers. Josh Allen had 5 fumbles lost and 13 picks. That's 19 turnoevers to 34 TWP. Jared Goff 4 fumbles lost and 7 picks on 23 TWP.

You don't reward people for luck you reward them for skill and this past season Geno had more luck than skill in his final numbers. It's a strange and rare occurrence but it has happened before. Foles and Rex Grossman come to mind.

You also don't invent numbers to justify an argument.

 

[Screamin12th]

If the metric only cares about fumbles lost it is actually a worse metric than I realized. I figure by the time we get to free agency some of you will be arguing he was the luckiest/worst QB of all time.

No thats not true. If a RB is carrying the ball loosely away from his body and he fumbles that is a TWP even if it's recovered by the RB or his team. If he is carrying the ball tight to his body and he fumbles the ball and it's recovered by the other team or his team that is not counted as a TWP.

For a QB those rules are the same when it comes to fumbles and Geno only had 5 total fumbles and lost 3 only one that was recovered by his own team was rated as a turnover worthy play. For passing it's not a TWP for the QB if the ball hits his WR in the Hands and then is picked off because it bounced up or was pulled away on the way to the ground by a defender. Turnover worthy plays are those such plays that SHOULD have been turnovers and 80% of them are. Only around 20% are dropped or the person who committed the TWP got lucky. That happens but not very often. For Geno it happened more than it didn't happen and that is the issue. He was extremely lucky on things HE HAD NO CONTROL OF! not because of skill but because he got lucky. So you want to bet the farm his luck holds out? Im not a gambling man but i know you never bet on someone's luck.

Better yet open up your wallet and sub to PFF and look it up yourself. Brock Huard is 100 times smarter about football stuff than me or you put together and HE is the one that was bringing home this point. Let me guess... you think you know more than Brock right? because thats how you are talking.

Geno's luck last year was like someone winning the Lottery 2 times in a row based on the averages. It's not unheard of because it does happen just not very often. The last QB to have the luck that Geno had over the course of a season was Rex Grossman. It happens just not that often. Oh Tim Tebow was pretty lucky also.

 

[Lineman16]

Geno could have at least 6 more INT's this year than he did. Mostly forcing it to Metcalf. Now teams have a full year of film on him. I'm ok with him returning but not for top 10 money. I'd rather build a great defense around an average offense. JMO...

 

[Screamin12th]

Geno is a middle of the pack QB and isn't worth signing to a larger contract. He doesn't suck but he isn't someone you build a franchise around and he is 33 years old. You don't put your money into a 9 year QB with one good season that had a LOT of luck involved in that season. Also lets not forget who he was throwing to. Hell i bet Metcalf and Lockett could make me look better than i really am then add in defenders dropping 60% of all the bad balls i throw ontop of that.

I think thats what flyer doesn't get, that 80% of all turnover worthy passes WERE IN FACT intercepted. But Geno only 46% were. That is some crazy CRAZY luck.

Geno Smith made some absolutely beautiful throws last year, some real dimes. But he also got very lucky with some pigs and ducks. REAL lucky.

 

[Screamin12th]

Geno could have at least 6 more INT's this year than he did. Mostly forcing it to Metcalf. Now teams have a full year of film on him. I'm ok with him returning but not for top 10 money. I'd rather build a great defense around an average offense. JMO...

Geno could have had 20 INT's last season easily but a crazy number of drops saved our butts. Do you all remember in the LA Rams game when he threw that INT that would have most likely lost the game for us but they refs took the play back? Crazy season for Geno and i hope he gets paid just not from us because this is the biggest Buyer beware of the last 5 years.

 

[Lineman16]

I may get killed for this take but why not franchise Geno then trade him along with the 5th pick for Lamar. Makes us a instant contender?

 

[MrS]

I may get killed for this take but why not franchise Geno then trade him along with the 5th pick for Lamar. Makes us a instant contender?

we already have a starting RB.

 

[Lineman16]

we already have a starting RB.

 

[Screamin12th]

I say Sign Lock to a 2 year deal for 10 million Tell him he will compete with a rookie flat out. Make sure to point out he will have every advantage that Geno had on him over the rookie and will get all the #1 snaps like Geno did. All Lock then has to do is win the job that they favor for him "Just like they did Geno". Draft a QB in the 3rd round to groom say O'Connell From Purdue as a High ceiling project guy or Jake Haener. One of those guys should be there in the 3rd round if not the 4th. Then play your hand. If you suck bad and have once again a top 5 pick you are in position ONCE AGAIN to nab a QB out of a much better class with most likely 5 high to mid first round worthy QB's and you didn't put my stock in the 2022 draft. If you dont suck you let Lock continue to grow and then the 2022 drafted QB can learn and be ready to replace him when the time is right.

For me at least this would be the best way going forward, you are then saving a lot of capital to really beef up the defense. The thing is getting talented starters even if they are not stars on the Dline and at linebacker is easier than trying to grab a star QB. Then with the resources they have available they can quickly turn the Hawks defense into a stout unit. A top 10 scoring offense needs a lot more from the defense.

 

[flyerhawk]

No thats not true. If a RB is carrying the ball loosely away from his body and he fumbles that is a TWP even if it's recovered by the RB or his team. If he is carrying the ball tight to his body and he fumbles the ball and it's recovered by the other team or his team that is not counted as a TWP.

That doesn't address the issue. If a ball carrier simply drops the ball but recovers it, is that a TWP?

For a QB those rules are the same when it comes to fumbles and Geno only had 5 total fumbles and lost 3 only one that was recovered by his own team was rated as a turnover worthy play. For passing it's not a TWP for the QB if the ball hits his WR in the Hands and then is picked off because it bounced up or was pulled away on the way to the ground by a defender. Turnover worthy plays are those such plays that SHOULD have been turnovers and 80% of them are. Only around 20% are dropped or the person who committed the TWP got lucky. That happens but not very often. For Geno it happened more than it didn't happen and that is the issue. He was extremely lucky on things HE HAD NO CONTROL OF! not because of skill but because he got lucky. So you want to bet the farm his luck holds out? Im not a gambling man but i know you never bet on someone's luck.

Geno Smith had 8 fumbles and lost 4. Which means that the PFF rater is saying that Geno Smith had DOUBLE the number of interception worthy throws that were picked. They are claiming he had 12 interception worth throws that were not ultimately intercepted. Assuming that they counted ALL 8 fumbles as his fault. Then factor in the handful of popped passes that got picked and Bobby Wagner simply taking a ball away from a receiver for a pick and you start to get to where Geno Smith had a pass a game which was interception worthy but wasn't picked. Do you REALLY believe that?

You are living on a stat that even PFF wouldn't treat like gospel the way you are.

Better yet open up your wallet and sub to PFF and look it up yourself. Brock Huard is 100 times smarter about football stuff than me or you put together and HE is the one that was bringing home this point. Let me guess... you think you know more than Brock right? because thats how you are talking.

I have a PFF subscription. I'm looking at the numbers. It's annoying that they don't include fumbles on their QB stats page to be honest. Provide the link to what Brock Huard said.

Geno's luck last year was like someone winning the Lottery 2 times in a row based on the averages. It's not unheard of because it does happen just not very often. The last QB to have the luck that Geno had over the course of a season was Rex Grossman. It happens just not that often. Oh Tim Tebow was pretty lucky also.

Geno was like someone who won the lottery twice in a row? Even Harold is probably stepping away from the shit you are saying here just to "win" an argument. And you seemed to determined to actually ignore my numbers while you make up your own numbers.

 

[Screamin12th]

LMAO dude so you will ignore stats that make sense to just defend your man crush on Geno. That's what it all comes down to.

If a RB just "drops" the ball that is not a TWP unless he was carrying it loosely.

Harrold stepping away? why does it matter what Harrold thinks? Because he is an Admin? I don't need anyone's "approval" but this comment shows that you do. Do you think he has more knowledge than anyone else? lol. Why is something that makes sense to everyone else but not you mean it's not worth talking about? Only because it goes against your man crush?

Geno is a middle of the pack QB that doesn't deserve to be paid more than MAX 25 mill per season and that's with performance bonuses maxed out. He had an EXTEREMLY lucky season and you think it wasn't.

You should just say this

"My name is Flyerhawk and i love Geno, Please don't hate on him or show me the real stats as i want him to come back and i will deny anything you say even if true if it goes against my beliefs"

I provided REAL stats with REAL numbers and you just want to flip it .. like always.

Brocks was in a pod cast, do you not listen to his pod casts? you should he has 100 times the knowledge you will ever have. go listen to the archives.
For some reason you think "skill" is the reason Geno didn't have the turnovers when he has no control of people catching or dropping balls that hit them in the hands.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

LMAO dude so you will ignore stats that make sense to just defend your man crush on Geno. That's what it all comes down to.

If a RB just "drops" the ball that is not a TWP unless he was carrying it loosely.

Harrold stepping away? why does it matter what Harrold thinks? Because he is an Admin? I don't need anyone's "approval" but this comment shows that you do. Do you think he has more knowledge than anyone else? lol. Why is something that makes sense to everyone else but not you mean it's not worth talking about? Only because it goes against your man crush?

Geno is a middle of the pack QB that doesn't deserve to be paid more than MAX 25 mill per season and that's with performance bonuses maxed out. He had an EXTEREMLY lucky season and you think it wasn't.

You should just say this

"My name is Flyerhawk and i love Geno, Please don't hate on him or show me the real stats as i want him to come back and i will deny anything you say even if true if it goes against my beliefs"

I provided REAL stats with REAL numbers and you just want to flip it .. like always.

Brocks was in a pod cast, do you not listen to his pod casts? you should he has 100 times the knowledge you will ever have. go listen to the archives.

Think the reason he mentions me is because I've been vocal about not sinking to much in Geno and feel the Seahawks need to try at hitting on a QB this draft.

 

[flyerhawk]

LMAO dude so you will ignore stats that make sense to just defend your man crush on Geno. That's what it all comes down to.

If a RB just "drops" the ball that is not a TWP unless he was carrying it loosely.

Weird to respond to me a day later but ok. I don't have anything close to a man crush on Geno. I simply reject your slavish devotion to one subjective sack that includes holding onto the ball too long as a turnover worthy play.

I get it. You want to "win" the argument. And you think this one stat is definitive proof that Geno was simply super lucky. You ignore everything data point I offer and just repeat the same thing over and over. So be it.

Harrold stepping away? why does it matter what Harrold thinks? Because he is an Admin? I don't need anyone's "approval" but this comment shows that you do. Do you think he has more knowledge than anyone else? lol. Why is something that makes sense to everyone else but not you mean it's not worth talking about? Only because it goes against your man crush?

I think Harold agrees with your position. Nothing more. Nothing less.

Geno is a middle of the pack QB that doesn't deserve to be paid more than MAX 25 mill per season and that's with performance bonuses maxed out. He had an EXTEREMLY lucky season and you think it wasn't.

You should just say this

"My name is Flyerhawk and i love Geno, Please don't hate on him or show me the real stats as i want him to come back and i will deny anything you say even if true if it goes against my beliefs"

I provided REAL stats with REAL numbers and you just want to flip it .. like always.

Brocks was in a pod cast, do you not listen to his pod casts? you should he has 100 times the knowledge you will ever have. go listen to the archives.

That you think I love Geno, is more about you than anything I've said. I've been pretty clear about my views on Geno. I offered you other players that were even "luckier" and you simply ignored those numbers as well. But you are just repeating yourself. You say you provided real stats but you ignored everything number I provided. That's just being intellectually dishonest.

 

[flyerhawk]

Think the reason he mentions me is because I've been vocal about not sinking to much in Geno and feel the Seahawks need to try at hitting on a QB this draft.

Exactly. Which is fine. We all have our own opinions. Not all of us care the same about results in 2023. Some folks would be fine with having a poor season in 2023 as it would set us up more in 2024. I personally disagree with that view a lot but I get it.

 

[Screamin12th]

Weird to respond to me a day later but ok. I don't have anything close to a man crush on Geno. I simply reject your slavish devotion to one subjective sack that includes holding onto the ball too long as a turnover worthy play.

I get it. You want to "win" the argument. And you think this one stat is definitive proof that Geno was simply super lucky. You ignore everything data point I offer and just repeat the same thing over and over. So be it.



I think Harold agrees with your position. Nothing more. Nothing less.



That you think I love Geno, is more about you than anything I've said. I've been pretty clear about my views on Geno. I offered you other players that were even "luckier" and you simply ignored those numbers as well. But you are just repeating yourself. You say you provided real stats but you ignored everything number I provided. That's just being intellectually dishonest.

Sorry I dont spend all day on the forums My bad guess my wife and Kids and life should just vanish.

There is no winning or losing, this is about luck and you refuse to see how extremely lucky Geno was this past season. Thats what it comes down to. He could have VERY EASILY ended the season with 25 int's then what would you be saying? Sure as hell wouldn't be "Resign him".

If Geno played the same way for 5 years in a row in the other 4 years he most likely has 25 int's going with the averages. He got lucky and thats what it boils down to.

@flyerhawk tell me how Geno forced the defenders to drop catching his poorly thrown balls? explain this to me please because this is what i want to understand.

 

[flyerhawk]

Sorry I dont spend all day on the forums My bad guess my wife and Kids and life should just vanish.

There is no winning or losing, this is about luck and you refuse to see how extremely lucky Geno was this past season. Thats what it comes down to. He could have VERY EASILY ended the season with 25 int's then what would you be saying? Sure as hell wouldn't be "Resign him".

Well at least you aren't peddling the 34 ints nonsense still. That's an improvement.

Do you think holding onto the ball too long should equate to a turnover worthy play?

 

[Screamin12th]

Well at least you aren't peddling the 34 ints nonsense still. That's an improvement.

Do you think holding onto the ball too long should equate to a turnover worthy play?

34 turnovers not INT's that includes the INT's and Fumbles. Had 80.6% of his turnover worthy plays turned into turnovers thats what it would have been.

80.6% is the average of TWP that turned into turnovers not a made up number. Geno's was a CRAZY 46%

Geno's "Bad plays" didn't hurt the team that doesn't mean they "DIDN'T" happen.

My point i was trying to make this WHOLE time is Geno got extremely lucky this past season, and i still don't know what your point is other than you seem to think he didn't. How do you NOT think he was lucky?

 

[flyerhawk]

34 turnovers not INT's that includes the INT's and Fumbles. Had 80.6% of his turnover worthy plays turned into turnovers thats what it would have been.

80.6% is the average of TWP that turned into turnovers not a made up number. Geno's was a CRAZY 46%

FFS

Jared Goff 7 ints 4 lost fumbles 24 TWP = 46%
Josh Allen 17 ints 6 fumbles lost 33 TWP = 70%
Daniel Jones 6 ints 3 fumbles lost on 21 TWP = 43%
Kyler Murray 7 ints 2 fumbles lost on 18 TWP = 50%

Oh and Geno had 12 ints and 4 fumbles lost on 32 TWP = 50%

NFL Football Player Stats & Stats Leaders - Fumbles Lost

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[Screamin12th]

Again how do you figure Geno DIDN'T get lucky?

Was Geno in the top 10 of TWP? Yes
Is Geno Better than Josh Allen? No
what was the percentage of TWP of the top 10 that was converted into actual Turnovers? 80.6%

You can "avoid" the question but it's as plain as the nose on your face you are doing so.

So please explain to EVERYONE how Geno didn't get lucky, I really want to hear your reasoning.

Had Geno's TWP been converted to turnovers only 65% of the time lower than the average he would have led the league in Turnovers.

So how was Geno NOT lucky?


I want to know how Geno some how makes defenses drop balls at a 60% rate that they catch at a 80% rate average with everyone else. This is what i want to know because you seem to think he had control in this.