2021-2022 NBA Season

[fightinfunbags]

I'd love to point to head to head this year, but will have to wait until next Monday. Embiid missed the first matchup in November. Jokic went for 30/7/11, but that was against Drummond (4/1/6).

Why are we leaning on one game or a handful of games?

 

[Shanemansj13]

Lets look at some other stats then:

VORP (victories over replacement player): Embiid 4.9, Jokic 7.6 (leads league, 2nd year in a row)
WS (Win shares): Embiid 9.2, Jokic 11.7 (leads league, 2nd year in a row)
OWS (Offensive Win Shares): Embiid 6.2, Jokic 8.2 (leads league, 2nd year in a row)
DWS (Defensive Win Shares): Embiid 3.0, Jokic 3.6
WS/48 (Win shares per 48 min): Embiid .262, Jokic .299 (leads league, 2nd year in a row)
BPM (box plus/minus): Embiid 9.5, Jokic 13.9 (leads league, 2nd year in a row)
OBPM (offensive box plus/minus): Embiid 7.4, Jokic 9.2 (leads league, 2nd year in a row)
DBPM (defensive box plus/minus): Embiid 2.1, Jokic 4.7 (leads league)

All of this despite Embiid having a larger usage rate (36.8 to Jokic's 31.1).

Most similar player comps for win shares:
Embiid - Daugherty, Brook Lopez, Okur, Nater, Divac, Eakins, Paultz, Noah, Valunciunas, Adebayo
Jokic - Lanier, Shaq, Cowens, Dwight, Hakeem, Russell, Bellamy, Issel, KAT, McAdoo

#statsdontmatter

But we see it time and time again, this could be a Curry over Lebron type of year. That being said, both are great players and we all know the MVP discussion is a joke. They won't give it to Jokic again bc Embiid never won it and back to back is difficult to achieve unless the player run away with it.

A legit question: What player would you take first if you were building a team?
You could make a case for both but I honestly think most GM's would take Jokic before Embiid bc of his vision. At this point, Jokic's defensive ability question mark is a bit overblown...the guy has improved on the defensive floor.

 

[Shanemansj13]

I'd love to point to head to head this year, but will have to wait until next Monday. Embiid missed the first matchup in November. Jokic went for 30/7/11, but that was against Drummond (4/1/6).

Yeah it should be a good one but won't determine shit either, lets be honest.

 

[fightinfunbags]

#statsdontmatter

But we see it time and time again, this could be a Curry over Lebron type of year. That being said, both are great players and we all know the MVP discussion is a joke. They won't give it to Jokic again bc Embiid never won it and back to back is difficult to achieve unless the player run away with it.

A legit question: What player would you take first if you were building a team?
You could make a case for both but I honestly think most GM's would take Jokic before Embiid bc of his vision. At this point, Jokic's defensive ability question mark is a bit overblown...the guy has improved on the defensive floor.

Another thing to consider is that Jokic plays a fat man’s game and therefore has little risk of injury. The physics just aren’t there in his game. The biggest knock on Embiid is his injury history. Jokic is the safer long term investment. Sometimes it pays not to be a freak athletic talent.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Not in my mind. It is a kick in the dick response to blind embrace of all analytics. Statistics naturally have holes in their construction and when you see players like Jokic Booker Curry etc…creeping into the top 20 in the league in a metric despite every basketball fan knowing these players aren’t elite defensive players the response should be to take those stats with a grain of salt.

It’s telling that you didn’t want to answer my question so I’ll ask again. When you watch these two players play defense who is the better player?

I rarely watch Jokic, well bc Denver is rarely on national television and/or they play too late. I believe Embiid is the better defensive player and have always though that but really is the gap bigger than Jokic being a better faciliator/rebounder. Who knows and who really cares imo.

I like that Jokic is way more durable than Embiid. That is a big win for me but it also has nothing to do with who is the better player right now. Both are dominant centers, I'm not swayed either way.

 

[fightinfunbags]

I rarely watch Jokic, well bc Denver is rarely on national television and/or they play too late. I believe Embiid is the better defensive player and have always though that but really is the gap bigger than Jokic being a better faciliator/rebounder. Who knows and who really cares imo.

I like that Jokic is way more durable than Embiid. That is a big win for me but it also has nothing to do with who is the better player right now. Both are dominant centers, I'm not swayed either way.

Is Jokic a better rebounder because he’s a better rebounder or because defensively in his scheme he can’t switch on screens and only has value around the basket? Does that explain the difference between 11 and 13 rebounds per game?

 

[shopson67]

Not in my mind. It is a kick in the dick response to blind embrace of all analytics. Statistics naturally have holes in their construction and when you see players like Jokic Booker Curry etc…creeping into the top 20 in the league in a metric despite every basketball fan knowing these players aren’t elite defensive players the response should be to take those stats with a grain of salt.

It’s telling that you didn’t want to answer my question so I’ll ask again. When you watch these two players play defense who is the better player?

I don't watch either much at all.

To me, the fact that players not perceived as elite creeping into the top 20 shows that there aren't many elite defenders and some may be better team defense guys than 1 on 1.

 

[shopson67]

Why are we leaning on one game or a handful of games?

I'm looking for recent examples, since we're talking about MVP this year.

 

[fightinfunbags]

I don't watch either much at all.

Haha, then WTF are we doing? Just have a computer pick MVP based on box scores.

 

[shopson67]

Another thing to consider is that Jokic plays a fat man’s game and therefore has little risk of injury. The physics just aren’t there in his game. The biggest knock on Embiid is his injury history. Jokic is the safer long term investment. Sometimes it pays not to be a freak athletic talent.

LOL.

 

[Wamu]

Yeah but the 6-8 week timeline seems a bit unrealistic. It's a non-thumb and non-shooting hand injury for a center. Don't know the severity so that is the issue but I'm thinking 2-4 weeks

2-4 weeks would be great.

 

[Wamu]

Cavs can't catch a break this year with injuries.

True. But same with your Lakers. Last I heard no team has had more players miss games this season than them. But the Cavs can't be too far behind.

 

[shopson67]

Haha, then WTF are we doing? Just have a computer pick MVP based on box scores.

I'm providing stats to aid in the discussion. It's one thing for stats to edge out one player. It's another thing entirely for the reigning MVP to lead the league in many of those stats for the 2nd straight season.

Even if we go with your evaluation that Embiid is the better defender, the offensive side isn't as close as you indicate. Let's assume that offensive rebounds end up with another shot attempt. 37% of the Sixers' attempts are from 3, 42% for the Nuggets. The Sixers shoot .452 from 2, .356 from 3 as a team (for the Nuggets, .475 and .354).

Embiid: 29.5 pts, 1.9 oreb (1.83 pts), 4.4 ast (10.43 pts) = 41.76 ppg offensive impact
Jokic: 25.8 pts, 2.8 oreb (2.79 pts), 8.0 ast (19.36 pts) = 47.95 ppg offensive impact

Is Embiid more than 6 pts better than Jokic on defense? Not via defensive rebounding (Jokic 11, Embiid 9.2). Embiid does average more blocks (1.4 to .8), but that's 1.2 pts. Steals? Jokic wins that one too, 1.4 to 1.1. We established in my other post that Jokic has the better plus/minus across the board.

 

[shopson67]

True. But same with your Lakers. Last I heard no team has had more players miss games this season than them. But the Cavs can't be too far behind.

Unfortunately, of all those missed games, only 1 was Westbrook...

 

[fightinfunbags]

I'm providing stats to aid in the discussion. It's one thing for stats to edge out one player. It's another thing entirely for the reigning MVP to lead the league in many of those stats for the 2nd straight season.

Even if we go with your evaluation that Embiid is the better defender, the offensive side isn't as close as you indicate. Let's assume that offensive rebounds end up with another shot attempt. 37% of the Sixers' attempts are from 3, 42% for the Nuggets. The Sixers shoot .452 from 2, .356 from 3 as a team (for the Nuggets, .475 and .354).

Embiid: 29.5 pts, 1.9 oreb (1.83 pts), 4.4 ast (10.43 pts) = 41.76 ppg offensive impact
Jokic: 25.8 pts, 2.8 oreb (2.79 pts), 8.0 ast (19.36 pts) = 47.95 ppg offensive impact

Is Embiid more than 6 pts better than Jokic on defense? Not via defensive rebounding (Jokic 11, Embiid 9.2). Embiid does average more blocks (1.4 to .8), but that's 1.2 pts. Steals? Jokic wins that one too, 1.4 to 1.1. We established in my other post that Jokic has the better plus/minus across the board.

You've already admitted to not watching either player. I can read the same statistics you can. You aren't really making an argument.

 

[Shanemansj13]

I just want to point out...Lebron leads the league in PPG now.

I'm providing stats to aid in the discussion. It's one thing for stats to edge out one player. It's another thing entirely for the reigning MVP to lead the league in many of those stats for the 2nd straight season.

Even if we go with your evaluation that Embiid is the better defender, the offensive side isn't as close as you indicate. Let's assume that offensive rebounds end up with another shot attempt. 37% of the Sixers' attempts are from 3, 42% for the Nuggets. The Sixers shoot .452 from 2, .356 from 3 as a team (for the Nuggets, .475 and .354).

Embiid: 29.5 pts, 1.9 oreb (1.83 pts), 4.4 ast (10.43 pts) = 41.76 ppg offensive impact
Jokic: 25.8 pts, 2.8 oreb (2.79 pts), 8.0 ast (19.36 pts) = 47.95 ppg offensive impact

Is Embiid more than 6 pts better than Jokic on defense? Not via defensive rebounding (Jokic 11, Embiid 9.2). Embiid does average more blocks (1.4 to .8), but that's 1.2 pts. Steals? Jokic wins that one too, 1.4 to 1.1. We established in my other post that Jokic has the better plus/minus across the board.

Plus are we counting off-ball defender too? I'm sure there are stats for that

 

[Shanemansj13]

Another thing to consider is that Jokic plays a fat man’s game and therefore has little risk of injury. The physics just aren’t there in his game. The biggest knock on Embiid is his injury history. Jokic is the safer long term investment. Sometimes it pays not to be a freak athletic talent.

Even more reason to suggest what he is doing is more impressive. He is a fat man playing against uber-talented and skilled players. He lacks great athleticism. He requires higher bball IQ, court vision and positioning. Thank you for proving our point

 

[fightinfunbags]

Even more reason to suggest what he is doing is more impressive. He is a fat man playing against uber-talented and skilled players. He lacks great athleticism. He requires higher bball IQ, court vision and positioning. Thank you for proving our point

Yep. Grading on a curve. But then after we concede this point, we will still get posts here using stats to try and establish the mental gymnastics used to say Embiid and Jokic are comparable defensive players....wait my bad....statistics that say Joker is a better defensive player than Embiid.

 

[shopson67]

Even more reason to suggest what he is doing is more impressive. He is a fat man playing against uber-talented and skilled players. He lacks great athleticism. He requires higher bball IQ, court vision and positioning. Thank you for proving our point

I'm just surprised that the same guy that doesn't believe in statistics resorted to a physics argument....

 

[fightinfunbags]

I'm just surprised that the same guy that doesn't believe in statistics resorted to a physics argument....

Thanks, @Wamu you've now convinced everybody that I throw away all statistics. It's not that I question some metrics. It's not that I argue that there is little difference between one guy finishing 1st vs another finishing 4th in the league in a metric. It's me ignoring all statistics. Getting gaslit is the tits. It's especially awesome when a person admitted they don't even watch either player.