2020-21 The Carter Hart Era PT2(The raising of the cup)

[lasgop8]

Moving JVR and Ghost opens $11,500,000. Would Seattle dare do something so insane? That would allow an offer to Mike Hoffman who is an UFA and helps the wing and PP.

We would have to sweeten that deal with a high pick.

 

[lasgop8]

Because the Isles couldn't dominate them in a physical style. Plus I assume the Lightning were a little fresher.

And yet we beat TB. So crazy.

 

[awaz]

Lots of talk about Seattle the first couple days of the offseason. They won't have their expansion draft until June 2021. So they won't have any impact on next season's roster, it'll be the 2021-22 team that will have lost someone to Seattle.

 

[fightinfunbags]

Lots of talk about Seattle the first couple days of the offseason. They won't have their expansion draft until June 2021. So they won't have any impact on next season's roster, it'll be the 2021-22 team that will have lost someone to Seattle.

D’oh! I’m one of those guys. Sorry everybody. Haha

 

[awaz]

I’m also piggy backing off of something someone brought up earlier that made a lot of sense to me with Ghost and that is to dangle him in front of the Kragen to sweeten up them taking one of Gee Jake or JVR off our books and cap. Looking at the FA D men that are out there, I don’t think they provide the same value as Shattenkirk unless they get involved with Pieterangelo to the tune of 8 mil plus. I worry about giving that kind of money to a guy who isn’t there yet but will likely end the contract on the back end of his skills dropping and being stuck with him. I’d rather shed Ghost and one of those three. Sign Shattenkirk on the cheap and then go all in on bringing Taylor Hall to Philly to play next to Hayes and TK.

Noting my previous comments about the Kraken Expansion being in June 2021, if there is one thing teams should have learned from the Vegas expansion it's that the 'sweeting the pot' moves to ensure Vegas takes someone is a mistake.

The Wild traded Alex Tuch for a 3rd round pick and to keep them away from Eric Staal and their dman. The Knights got Tuch and Haula. Tuch is tied for 3rd in playoff goals this year. Haula washed out, but he scored 29 G in his first season with Vegas.

The Ducks traded Shea Theodore to Vegas to get them to take Stoner. Theodore leads dmen in goals and has 16 points and is Vegas' 1D.

The Pens traded a 2nd round pick (2020) for them to take the face of their franchise, Fleury.

The Blue Jackets traded a 1st and 2nd for Vegas to take David Clarkson's contract and William Karlsson, Vegas' 1C and the franchise leader in goals and points.

The Panthers traded Reilly Smith to ensure Vegas would take Jonathan Marchessault. Marchessault has scored at a 66 point/season pace over 3 years in Vegas. Smith is right behind him at 65 points/season.

Moral of the story, It's not smart to trade with Seattle to try to dictate the draft. Expose your guys. Lose one. Done. Don't make it worse by overthinking it.

 

[awaz]

And yet we beat TB. So crazy.

Matchups mean a lot, this is more proof I think. Not necessarily saying I think the Flyers would beat Tampa because they're rolling, but that's part of what made me so optimistic going into the playoffs and even through the Montreal series. The Flyers could, and still can, win a lot of different ways. They CAN play a suffocating defensive style and hold you to < 2 goals per game. See Montreal series. They CAN skate with some high octane offenses, see beating Tampa in the RR. They CAN go up against one of the best lines in hockey and turn the tables on them, see Boston. They CAN grind you to death on the forecheck like they did most of the regular season. Their goalie CAN steal games. They have enough star power up front that someone CAN win them a game by themselves.

I think this playoff run shows an area where they apparently struggle. Teams that take away their time and space with a heavy forecheck and then closing out the slot in the d-zone. Montreal did it, NYI did it, and they could never get going. So, IMO, that's where the Flyers efforts need to be focused in the offseason.

1. How do you get better at breaking out against a heavy forecheck. Is it a big guy on the back end that punishes forwards a little bit and wears them down? Is it another puck mover? Is it just getting more experience?

2. How do you create goals when the other team is shutting down the high danger area? Is it a real power forward that can get to the net anyway and create goals? Or is it more speed that can hit teams better on the counter?

The Flyers are a deep and well constructed team that can beat you in a lot of ways. But there's apparently a couple ways they can't. The route to them getting better is through those 2 points IMO.

 

[awaz]

We would have to sweeten that deal with a high pick.

If the situation remains the same until next summer, giving them Ghost to take JvR would be a huge mismanagement of assets IMO. There's a market for 30G scorers. And there's a market for young, skilled dmen on good contracts. Don't lose both for nothing but cap space.

I think there's a very good chance Seattle takes JvR or Ghost if/when the Flyers expose them. No need to sweeten the pot at all. And if they don't take them, so be it. But you have to remember, cap space is essentially an asset to Seattle. Vegas took on a bunch of bad contracts for assets, because they had the room to do it. The high dollar contracts aren't available to them, they're all protected. So 7M for JvR is an overpayment, but they have the space to do it. And they'll only have 2 years left on that deal, so it won't suffocate their future. Same thing with Ghost. He played a season as a top pair defenseman and has looked the part of a top 5 PP QB. For 4.5M and 2 years, that's worth the gamble to a team with extra space.

If JvR/Ghost survive this summer which I don't think is a foregone conclusion.

 

[fightinfunbags]

Noting my previous comments about the Kraken Expansion being in June 2021, if there is one thing teams should have learned from the Vegas expansion it's that the 'sweeting the pot' moves to ensure Vegas takes someone is a mistake.

The Wild traded Alex Tuch for a 3rd round pick and to keep them away from Eric Staal and their dman. The Knights got Tuch and Haula. Tuch is tied for 3rd in playoff goals this year. Haula washed out, but he scored 29 G in his first season with Vegas.

The Ducks traded Shea Theodore to Vegas to get them to take Stoner. Theodore leads dmen in goals and has 16 points and is Vegas' 1D.

The Pens traded a 2nd round pick (2020) for them to take the face of their franchise, Fleury.

The Blue Jackets traded a 1st and 2nd for Vegas to take David Clarkson's contract and William Karlsson, Vegas' 1C and the franchise leader in goals and points.

The Panthers traded Reilly Smith to ensure Vegas would take Jonathan Marchessault. Marchessault has scored at a 66 point/season pace over 3 years in Vegas. Smith is right behind him at 65 points/season.

Moral of the story, It's not smart to trade with Seattle to try to dictate the draft. Expose your guys. Lose one. Done. Don't make it worse by overthinking it.

Matchups mean a lot, this is more proof I think. Not necessarily saying I think the Flyers would beat Tampa because they're rolling, but that's part of what made me so optimistic going into the playoffs and even through the Montreal series. The Flyers could, and still can, win a lot of different ways. They CAN play a suffocating defensive style and hold you to < 2 goals per game. See Montreal series. They CAN skate with some high octane offenses, see beating Tampa in the RR. They CAN go up against one of the best lines in hockey and turn the tables on them, see Boston. They CAN grind you to death on the forecheck like they did most of the regular season. Their goalie CAN steal games. They have enough star power up front that someone CAN win them a game by themselves.

I think this playoff run shows an area where they apparently struggle. Teams that take away their time and space with a heavy forecheck and then closing out the slot in the d-zone. Montreal did it, NYI did it, and they could never get going. So, IMO, that's where the Flyers efforts need to be focused in the offseason.

1. How do you get better at breaking out against a heavy forecheck. Is it a big guy on the back end that punishes forwards a little bit and wears them down? Is it another puck mover? Is it just getting more experience?

2. How do you create goals when the other team is shutting down the high danger area? Is it a real power forward that can get to the net anyway and create goals? Or is it more speed that can hit teams better on the counter?

The Flyers are a deep and well constructed team that can beat you in a lot of ways. But there's apparently a couple ways they can't. The route to them getting better is through those 2 points IMO.

If the situation remains the same until next summer, giving them Ghost to take JvR would be a huge mismanagement of assets IMO. There's a market for 30G scorers. And there's a market for young, skilled dmen on good contracts. Don't lose both for nothing but cap space.

I think there's a very good chance Seattle takes JvR or Ghost if/when the Flyers expose them. No need to sweeten the pot at all. And if they don't take them, so be it. But you have to remember, cap space is essentially an asset to Seattle. Vegas took on a bunch of bad contracts for assets, because they had the room to do it. The high dollar contracts aren't available to them, they're all protected. So 7M for JvR is an overpayment, but they have the space to do it. And they'll only have 2 years left on that deal, so it won't suffocate their future. Same thing with Ghost. He played a season as a top pair defenseman and has looked the part of a top 5 PP QB. For 4.5M and 2 years, that's worth the gamble to a team with extra space.

If JvR/Ghost survive this summer which I don't think is a foregone conclusion.

This is some great stuff to have passed along man. Good stuff

 

[Maverick426h]

Voting took place months ago. Oskar will be nominated next year and most likely win it.

So, he can be nominated twice in two years for the same reasons.

 

[awaz]

Corey Sznajder is a crazy stat guy. Calculates “Game Score” which takes into account shots, chances, chance assists, zone entries, zone exits, and more, and creates one stat for them all.

Barzal was far and away the best player in the series, but I think we knew that. The interesting one to me is it paints a much brighter picture of Giroux and Konecny than the eye test would’ve painted for them in the series. 2nd and 3rd highest Flyers’ “Game Score” respectively. Hayes was the best Flyer in the series by this metric.

Could be an area to draw some optimism moving forward?

 

[awaz]

So, he can be nominated twice in two years for the same reasons.

Apparently yes? At least according to the talking heads on twitter.

 

[awaz]

Corey Sznajder is a crazy stat guy. Calculates “Game Score” which takes into account shots, chances, chance assists, zone entries, zone exits, and more, and creates one stat for them all.

Barzal was far and away the best player in the series, but I think we knew that. The interesting one to me is it paints a much brighter picture of Giroux and Konecny than the eye test would’ve painted for them in the series. 2nd and 3rd highest Flyers’ “Game Score” respectively. Hayes was the best Flyer in the series by this metric.

Could be an area to draw some optimism moving forward?

Still though, need to see TK, Giroux, and Couturier on the other side of Barzal. Either by dragging his numbers down or exceeding them.

 

[EVille3]

So, he can be nominated twice in two years for the same reasons.

This year, yes. Bc he came back after the voting when the season would normally be completed.

 

[lasgop8]

If the situation remains the same until next summer, giving them Ghost to take JvR would be a huge mismanagement of assets IMO. There's a market for 30G scorers. And there's a market for young, skilled dmen on good contracts. Don't lose both for nothing but cap space.

I think there's a very good chance Seattle takes JvR or Ghost if/when the Flyers expose them. No need to sweeten the pot at all. And if they don't take them, so be it. But you have to remember, cap space is essentially an asset to Seattle. Vegas took on a bunch of bad contracts for assets, because they had the room to do it. The high dollar contracts aren't available to them, they're all protected. So 7M for JvR is an overpayment, but they have the space to do it. And they'll only have 2 years left on that deal, so it won't suffocate their future. Same thing with Ghost. He played a season as a top pair defenseman and has looked the part of a top 5 PP QB. For 4.5M and 2 years, that's worth the gamble to a team with extra space.

If JvR/Ghost survive this summer which I don't think is a foregone conclusion.

Our players always get overated on this board for some reason. Both of these players were so bad they weren't able to be put in the line up consistently in the playoffs. If im the Kraken and my goal is to win a Stanley Cup why would i want to stock my team with players who cant even consistently make a playoff roster. Who are both injury prone and not to mention pay them a lot of money to do so. And in JVRs case way past his prime.

 

[lasgop8]

Matchups mean a lot, this is more proof I think. Not necessarily saying I think the Flyers would beat Tampa because they're rolling, but that's part of what made me so optimistic going into the playoffs and even through the Montreal series. The Flyers could, and still can, win a lot of different ways. They CAN play a suffocating defensive style and hold you to < 2 goals per game. See Montreal series. They CAN skate with some high octane offenses, see beating Tampa in the RR. They CAN go up against one of the best lines in hockey and turn the tables on them, see Boston. They CAN grind you to death on the forecheck like they did most of the regular season. Their goalie CAN steal games. They have enough star power up front that someone CAN win them a game by themselves.

I think this playoff run shows an area where they apparently struggle. Teams that take away their time and space with a heavy forecheck and then closing out the slot in the d-zone. Montreal did it, NYI did it, and they could never get going. So, IMO, that's where the Flyers efforts need to be focused in the offseason.

1. How do you get better at breaking out against a heavy forecheck. Is it a big guy on the back end that punishes forwards a little bit and wears them down? Is it another puck mover? Is it just getting more experience?

2. How do you create goals when the other team is shutting down the high danger area? Is it a real power forward that can get to the net anyway and create goals? Or is it more speed that can hit teams better on the counter?

The Flyers are a deep and well constructed team that can beat you in a lot of ways. But there's apparently a couple ways they can't. The route to them getting better is through those 2 points IMO.

Man if we couldve only got past the Isles i wouldve loved a chance to take own TB.

 

[lasgop8]

Corey Sznajder is a crazy stat guy. Calculates “Game Score” which takes into account shots, chances, chance assists, zone entries, zone exits, and more, and creates one stat for them all.

Barzal was far and away the best player in the series, but I think we knew that. The interesting one to me is it paints a much brighter picture of Giroux and Konecny than the eye test would’ve painted for them in the series. 2nd and 3rd highest Flyers’ “Game Score” respectively. Hayes was the best Flyer in the series by this metric.

Could be an area to draw some optimism moving forward?

We need to find a way to combat the dump and pressure on our defense which leads to a lot of play in our own zone.
I think Carter Hart and his stick work not being up to par caused a lot of our defense getting pinned in. If Hart works on getting better with the puck that would be a tremendous help for our dmen

 

[raptorlife4]

Man if we couldve only got past the Isles i wouldve loved a chance to take own TB.

We would have beat Tampa

 

[lasgop8]

We would have beat Tampa

I agree 100%

 

[lasgop8]

It seems clear Flyers are not the Stanley Cup contender some thought they were

 

[awaz]

Our players always get overated on this board for some reason. Both of these players were so bad they weren't able to be put in the line up consistently in the playoffs. If im the Kraken and my goal is to win a Stanley Cup why would i want to stock my team with players who cant even consistently make a playoff roster. Who are both injury prone and not to mention pay them a lot of money to do so. And in JVRs case way past his prime.

There's probably some overrating, but there's definitely some underrating too. JvR got $7M as a UFA for reason. Hextall wasn't out there trying to burn money. He was probably overpaid then, maybe $1-2M because he was a UFA and other teams would've paid something similar. And he's struggled to replicate his last couple years in Toronto and is showing a steady decline. His true value is far below is $7M price tag.

But Seattle doesn't get to pick anyone they want to. They have to pick from what's available. (https://www.phlsportsnation.com/202...e-protected-and-who-is-available-for-seattle/)

That site estimated Seattle would get to pick from JvR, Patrick, Pitlick, Aube Kubel, Hagg, Ghost, and the backup goalie. I disagree with them in protecting Laughton over Patrick, assuming Patrick gets his health in order and develops. There's not exactly a "OMG I NEED THAT GUY" pick there. Pitlick, Hagg, and Aube-Kubel are dime-a-dozen guys. There will probably be 5 guys similar to them in Free Agency every single year. Why would Seattle waste an Expansion Draft slot on a player type/role they can sign in UFA a couple weeks later? So your down to JvR, Laughton, and Ghost. I can see an argument for Laughton, but I can also see an argument that a guy just like him can be signed in UFA too.

If JvR rebounds (big if, even I admit that) and scores 25-30 goals next year, Seattle isn't going to have a lot of 25-30 goal scorers available to them. $7M is a steep price, but that also might be the highest salary on their team. Everyone that makes $8M+ is typically on a no-move clause and will be protected, or is a core piece that will be protected. So 2 years, 7M, for your best chance at a 25-30 goal scorer isn't totally crazy. Same story on Ghost. A guy with his ceiling is going to be relatively rare for Seattle to pick from. $4.5M x2 years for that gamble isn't crazy.

I can see the Kraken going a different direction. They could take Laughton or Aube-Kubel, both I think are solid bottom 6 players. And both have some hope of further development. And they're going to need a bottom 6. Bellemare was the Flyers pick last time. But Seattle is going to need to take some risks on some guys and hope they can be top 6 forwards or top 4 dmen. Maybe they take those risks with other teams instead. But most top 6 forwards and top 4 dmen will be protected, so there won't be many no-brainers.