2018 Roster Expectations

[calsnowskier]

Admittedly it's true that I don't have a voice in the Giants plans

Perhaps I'm doing these mental hurdles to justify them not rebuilding. But I think it makes reasonable sense.

As LGH mentioned the Longoria move certainly hurts more as his long-term contract changes things, but the Rays are paying quite a lot of it as well so it's really not a huge burden, and Cutch is a one-year deal where the Giants can get value out of trading him as a rental, getting compensated as a QO or signing him long term without giving up additional prospects.

Now if the Giants go out and sign Cain then all of this can be deleted. But given their comments all offseason that seems very very very unlikely. So far they've moved about according to plan.

Except that Evans reportedly said that punting picks may be back on the table.

If there were a good FA on the market, I wouldn’t be too against the idea. But I just don’t like any of the FAs this year.

 

[LHG]

Except that Evans reportedly said that punting picks may be back on the table.

If there were a good FA on the market, I wouldn’t be too against the idea. But I just don’t like any of the FAs this year.

After the high of this McCutchen trade, that would bring me back to my sourpuss postings about offseason moves. Don't do it Evans! Don't do it!

 

[calsnowskier]

After the high of this McCutchen trade, that would bring me back to my sourpuss postings about offseason moves. Don't do it Evans! Don't do it!

If you are all in, you are all in. I get the thought process.

But again, there isn’t a single FA this year worth the move.

 

[calsnowskier]

Photoshop’d, but done real well...

Totally legit picture of Longo.

 

[tzill]

fan attendance is the best measure of team support. this was the first season since the 2k move to att where i've seen declining butts-in-the-seats. we're not the a's, but you want to turn the trajectory. maybe they'll catch lightening in a bottle this year and rekindle interest. hopefully that's the case

i agree the major trade pieces are undervalued, but i believe 2 things are true -
- their value won't increase in the next few years
- we won't be competitive in the next few years

so, imo, the fo is hanging on to continuing devalued assets.... at some point that value will go to zero. with a fixed roster they represent a growing negative opportunity cost which, again imo, is a bad situation.

the longer you prolong to improve, the longer it takes to improve

argumentum ad verecundiam. I mean, you MIGHT be right, but you've not supported that conclusion.

 

[LHG]

If the Giants want to pick up a center fielder still, and they do it through the free agent method, there are a few options available, but not many. Of the 27 remaining free agent outfielders, only 6 played primarily center field last year. They are Lorenzo Cain, Rajai Davis, Jarrod Dyson, Carlos Gomez, Austin Jackson and Cameron Maybin. Another 5 played center as their secondary position: Gregor Blanco, Peter Bourjos, Jon Jay, Ben Revere and Ichiro Suzuki. Additionally, another 4 logged some time in center in 2017: Alexi Amarista, Norichika Aoki, Craig Gentry and Colby Rasmus. That makes 15 possible candidates, stretching the candidacy to all free agents who played at least one game in 2017 in center field. Outside of maybe Jarrod Dyson or Austin Jackson (if they are willing to sign one year deals) I don't see any move there worth making.

 

[LHG]

Giants say Andrew McCutchen to play right field, with Hunter Pence in left

The Giants have less than 5 million before hitting the threshold for 2018:

 

[SFGRTB]

Giants say Andrew McCutchen to play right field, with Hunter Pence in left

The Giants have less than 5 million before hitting the threshold for 2018:

This is good news. Getting a guy who can go get it in CF will be really handy. Pence is still fairly athletic, I'd say more-so than the average LFer. As long as he picks up the ball well there he should hopefully be fine.

Same goes for Cutch. He's above average athletically for a RFer which is very important in the NL West. Though I'm slightly worried about the Wall out there with him, but he'll have no shortage of support.

Adding in a guy like Dyson who is among the very best defensive CFers will go a long way.

Still need a solid left hander, though it's looking like the Giants are going to have to luck out in that regard on a vet MiLB deal, or a rookie.

 

[SFGRTB]

On a conference call to reporters, Evans said they feel Duggar is ready but would like to keep him in the back pocket and go for a veteran CFer. I'm okay with that to an extent.

For example another report came out that said the Giants' preferences for CF are 1) Dyson, 2) Jay, 3) Maybin.

Personally I'd be okay with Dyson but after that I'd rather the Giants roll with a Gorkys/Duggar combo and spend the rest of their money on a key lefty instead.

 

[calsnowskier]

On a conference call to reporters, Evans said they feel Duggar is ready but would like to keep him in the back pocket and go for a veteran CFer. I'm okay with that to an extent.

For example another report came out that said the Giants' preferences for CF are 1) Dyson, 2) Jay, 3) Maybin.

Personally I'd be okay with Dyson but after that I'd rather the Giants roll with a Gorkys/Duggar combo and spend the rest of their money on a key lefty instead.

I am good with all this, but I also want an additional #5 SP. I am not a fan of having Blach in the rotation, and behind him, we only have Beede and Suarez (unless you count Gregorio).

 

[SFGRTB]

What does the lineup look like?

Cutch
Panik
Posey
Longoria
Belt
Pence
Crawford
CFer
P

That's probably the Bochy lineup.

What about:

Panik
Posey
McCutchen
Belt
Longoria
Pence
Crawford
CFer
P

Or the "never gonna happen sabermetric" lineup:

Posey
Belt
Cutch
Longoria
Crawford
Pence
Panik
CFer
P

 

[SFGRTB]

I am good with all this, but I also want an additional #5 SP. I am not a fan of having Blach in the rotation, and behind him, we only have Beede and Suarez (unless you count Gregorio).

There are a ton of free agent SPs left out there and with the current market I wonder if the Giants could snag a solid 5th guy on an MiLB deal instead of the traditional Todd Wellemeyer types. Can Hundley catch a knuckle ball? R.A. Dickey would be interesting

 

[calsnowskier]

Time for another 25 analysis...

Locks (16)

Bum
Cueto
Samardzijia

Melancon
Dyson
Gearrin
Strickland
Law

Posey
Hundley

Belt
Panik
Crawford
Longoria
McCutchen
Pence

Starts on DL (1)

Smith

Out of options (5)

Fernandez (Rule V)
Gregorio
Parker
Gorkys
Sandoval

So that leaves these as “open” (current leading contender)...

2 SP (Stratton, Blach)
2 relievers (at least 1 lefty) (Fernandez, Osich/Okert)
2 utility infielders (Sandoval, Tomlinson)
1 starting OFer (Duggar)
1 bu OFer (Parker)
1 OF/reliever (Gorkys)

This means we “lose” Gregorio, though. Not sure the org cares.

 

[LHG]

This is good news. Getting a guy who can go get it in CF will be really handy. Pence is still fairly athletic, I'd say more-so than the average LFer. As long as he picks up the ball well there he should hopefully be fine.

Same goes for Cutch. He's above average athletically for a RFer which is very important in the NL West. Though I'm slightly worried about the Wall out there with him, but he'll have no shortage of support.

Adding in a guy like Dyson who is among the very best defensive CFers will go a long way.

Still need a solid left hander, though it's looking like the Giants are going to have to luck out in that regard on a vet MiLB deal, or a rookie.

I'm okay with Dyson or Jay or Jackson or Maybin even if they are cheap one year deals. Otherwise, roll the dice with Hernandez until the FO feels Duggar is ready (which would probably be May or June if he stays healthy).

As for a left handed reliever, I would like to see the Giants pick up Xavier Cedeno on a minor league deal. His splits vs lefties are really good. If they maintain him as a strict LOOGY, I think he'd work quite well and he would be cheap.

 

[LHG]

Boone Logan signed a one year deal with the Brewers. That leaves 10 unsigned left hander relievers on the market. My updated rankings:
1. Watson
2. Cedeno
3. Abad
4. Duensing
5. de la Rosa
6. Wood
7. Liriano
8. Perez
9. Breslow
10. Perkins

The Cubs just re-signed Duensing to a two year deal. However, another lefty is available, for the time being, Buddy Boshers. He got dfa'd by the Twins and had a nice lefty vs. lefty slash last year (.224/.258/.397) but got killed by right handers. If the Giants picked him up, he would be another guy they'd need to stick to facing lefties only. I'd put him somewhere around Travis Wood:

1. Watson
2. Cedeno
3. Abad
4. de la Rosa
5. Wood
6. Boshers
7. Liriano
8. Perez
9. Breslow
10. Perkins

The bottom half of this list, though, makes no sense over Osich or Okert. The Giants may as well stay with what they got if they get that far.

 

[SFGRTB]

On KNBR today Evans said that Duggar would be the starting CFer if no other move is made.

KNBR host: "Say you're done.... Your starting center fielder on Opening Day would be? Your guess would be?"

Evans: "Well it wouldn't be a guess. It'd be Steven Duggar."

The Giants are 100% signing someone, but that's a lot of confidence for the kid.

 

[Mays-Fan]

There are a ton of free agent SPs left out there and with the current market I wonder if the Giants could snag a solid 5th guy on an MiLB deal instead of the traditional Todd Wellemeyer types. Can Hundley catch a knuckle ball? R.A. Dickey would be interesting

I would love to see a knuckleballer in relatively windy ATT park. The ball would tend to move more, if it's anything like a volleyball serve, which it should be.

 

[LHG]

An interesting little piece at MLB Trade Rumors outlines the most likely candidates for center field. However, it got me thinking, what is more important to the Giants, picking up someone from outside or staying within the luxury tax threshold? Barring a surprising trade, outside of Sam Dyson, there isn't much chance to clear more room on the payroll. And if the Giants are really as high on Duggar as their comments suggest, why would trade sign or trade for a guy that would be here multiple years. I could see them maybe getting someone young who has a good bat and could shift to left or right field. Otherwise, I got to wonder if maybe the Giants do just go with Hernandez for now. There have been some comments (cannot remember if it was Bochy or Evans or Sabean) about how good Hernandez played in the 2nd half last season. Or maybe they pick up someone like Peter Bourjos for a platoon until Duggar is ready.
Finding A Center Fielder For The Giants

 

[Mays-Fan]

There are a ton of free agent SPs left out there and with the current market I wonder if the Giants could snag a solid 5th guy on an MiLB deal instead of the traditional Todd Wellemeyer types. Can Hundley catch a knuckle ball? R.A. Dickey would be interesting

IMHO, signing RA Dickey is a no-brainer. Veteran, cheap, consistent, innings eater.

 

[LHG]

IMHO, signing RA Dickey is a no-brainer. Veteran, cheap, consistent, innings eater.

But can Hundley handle a knuckelballer? That seems like a question that should be addressed long before January if the Giants were to go that route.