2018 Roster Expectations

[calsnowskier]

i thought I would take a look at what the 2018 roster looks like at this point...

FAs

Hundley
Morse

Options (buyout cost)

Cain (7.5M)
Bumgarner (1.5M)
Moore (1M)

Arbitration

Strickland (1)
Panik (1)
Gearrin (2)
Dyson (2)
Smith (3)
Gillaspie (3)
Kontos (3)

MLB Contracts

Cueto (opt-out)
Posey
Samardzija
Pence
Melancon
Span
Crawford
Belt

Team controlled

Law
Parker
Williamson
Hernandez
Blach
Arroyo
Jones
Moncrief
Brown
Calixte
Crick
Gregorio (needs to be added to 40)
Gomez
Moronta
Chase Johnson
Okert
Osich
Slania
Slater
Stratton
Suarez(Al)
Tomlinson
Hwang (???)

That is 43 players, not counting Sandoval. I think these players will be cut/non-tendered/DFA'd...

Morse
Cain
Kontos
Gearin
Gillaspie
Brown
Hundley (I think they will try to resign him, though)
Moncrief (??)
Johnson(??)
Gregorio (??)
Hernandez (??)
Parker (??)

That is 8-12 guys clearing off the 40-man. But it is likely that Shaw and/or Sandoval will be added before the end of the season, so that will eat two of those spots.

So that leaves us with 3-7 open spots for Rule V protections/FA signings. Of course trades could change this as well (LOTS of Panik rumors going around now for the off season and Sammy rumors for the next few weeks).

 

[LHG]

Don't forget Steven Okert on the possible release/dfa list. The guy has shown nothing at the MLB level. Even though he's left handed and the Giants need a left handed reliever, with DJ Snelton needing an add to the 40 man this offseason and Will Smith, hopefully, ready for the start of 2018, Osich can compete with Snelton and Okert is free to find another organization.

 

[calsnowskier]

Don't forget Steven Okert on the possible release/dfa list. The guy has shown nothing at the MLB level. Even though he's left handed and the Giants need a left handed reliever, with DJ Snelton needing an add to the 40 man this offseason and Will Smith, hopefully, ready for the start of 2018, Osich can compete with Snelton and Okert is free to find another organization.

While possible, I doubt they will bail on either of the O's just yet. They are both still young.

 

[SFGRTB]

Here's basically what's locked in:

Posey - $22,177,777
Cueto - $21,000,000
Samardzija - $19,800,000
Pence - $18,500,000
Belt - $17,200,000
Crawford - $15,200,000
Melancon - $13,000,000
Bumgarner - $12,000,000
Span - $11,000,000
Moore - $9,000,000 (or $1,000,000)
Cain - $7,500,000

That's $166,377,777 right there (or $158,377,777).

Trading Belt, Panik and Moore, with Pence and Span coming off the books a year later, the Giants could find themselves with much more breathing room come 2019, especially with basically no one on the roster needing a massive extension outside of Bumgarner during the next wave of prospects. Depending on what you get in return (ideally talent close to the majors, or young talent already in the majors), the Giants could set themselves up decently for 2019 if they want to go ahead and half-ass it in 2018 by signing some old vets to fill in spots left by Belt and Panik and suffering through Pence and Span in the field one last season. Could even go the A's route and trade half of them at the deadline for more prospects.

 

[SFGRTB]

i thought I would take a look at what the 2018 roster looks like at this point...

FAs

Hundley
Morse

Options (buyout cost)

Cain (7.5M)
Bumgarner (1.5M)
Moore (1M)

Arbitration

Strickland (1)
Panik (1)
Gearrin (2)
Dyson (2)
Smith (3)
Gillaspie (3)
Kontos (3)

MLB Contracts

Cueto (opt-out)
Posey
Samardzija
Pence
Melancon
Span
Crawford
Belt

Team controlled

Law
Parker
Williamson
Hernandez
Blach
Arroyo
Jones
Moncrief
Brown
Calixte
Crick
Gregorio (needs to be added to 40)
Gomez
Moronta
Chase Johnson
Okert
Osich
Slania
Slater
Stratton
Suarez(Al)
Tomlinson
Hwang (???)

That is 43 players, not counting Sandoval. I think these players will be cut/non-tendered/DFA'd...

Morse
Cain
Kontos
Gearin
Gillaspie
Brown
Hundley (I think they will try to resign him, though)
Moncrief (??)
Johnson(??)
Gregorio (??)
Hernandez (??)
Parker (??)

That is 8-12 guys clearing off the 40-man. But it is likely that Shaw and/or Sandoval will be added before the end of the season, so that will eat two of those spots.

So that leaves us with 3-7 open spots for Rule V protections/FA signings. Of course trades could change this as well (LOTS of Panik rumors going around now for the off season and Sammy rumors for the next few weeks).

Gearrin and Kontos are costing this team so much that I will be pretty disappointed (frankly pissed) if they are still on this roster next year.

Money wise, could easily find 2 guys that do their job (possibly better) for the minimum. Saves maybe $3M-$4M

Flexibility wise, the bullpen is basically locked since neither guy can be sent down. Makes life a lot easier when you can shift guys up and down, especially with a now 10-day "rest" DL.

It seems like a really small thing to be mad about, but with the way bullpens should be used these days, they really clog shit up.

Gillaspie, same thing. Save $3M and play someone else.

 

[SFGRTB]

In regards to protection, there's a few names that will need the Giants seriously thinking about shielding form the Rule 5. They are:

Pitchers: Tyler Beede, Sam Coonrod, Matthew Gage, Jordan Johnson, Rodolfo Martinez, Tyler Rogers, DJ Snelton; Catchers: Aramis Garcia; Infielders: none; Outfielders: Gustavo Cabrera, Hunter Cole, Dylan Davis

Those are just the top names of who would be eligible to get drafted from other teams this December.

Johnson and Davis are safe for another year, they were under the cutoff date.

To add to this list:

Jake McCasland, Dusten Knight, Jonah Arenado, Skyler Ewing, Mark Reyes.

I think the ones they need to add are Beede, Garcia, Martinez, Coonrod, Snelten.

Beede and Garcia are obvious.

Rodolfo Martinez will be picked up by someone. He's been injured, but his stuff is too good.

Coonrod has been up and down, but I think the risk is too great to leave him unprotected.

Snelten's improvement and proximity make him too big of a risk.

 

[LHG]

Johnson and Davis are safe for another year, they were under the cutoff date.

To add to this list:

Jake McCasland, Dusten Knight, Jonah Arenado, Skyler Ewing, Mark Reyes.

I think the ones they need to add are Beede, Garcia, Martinez, Coonrod, Snelten.

Beede and Garcia are obvious.

Rodolfo Martinez will be picked up by someone. He's been injured, but his stuff is too good.

Coonrod has been up and down, but I think the risk is too great to leave him unprotected.

Snelten's improvement and proximity make him too big of a risk.

Both Davis and Johnson were 20 when they signed in 2014. That would put them at 4 years of service at the end of 2017, so they should both be eligible this year.

I didn't include McCasland, Knight, Arenado, Ewing or Reyes as I thought that they would be easy decisions to leave exposed.

 

[SFGRTB]

Both Davis and Johnson were 20 when they signed in 2014. That would put them at 4 years of service at the end of 2017, so they should both be eligible this year.

I didn't include McCasland, Knight, Arenado, Ewing or Reyes as I thought that they would be easy decisions to leave exposed.

I must be tripping.

And yeah I was just including other names to be thought about. Biagini wasn't a "must add" and he was snatched up.

 

[calsnowskier]

I think the ones they need to add are Beede, Garcia, Martinez, Coonrod, Snelten.
[\quote]
I agree with this list. I don't see any of those guys as borderline, and don't see the need in adding any of the others.

That means at least 2 of my "???" guys will need to be let go.

 

[stanford the manford]

probably an outlier here (and as a retiree my cocktail hours starts at 3:00, so take this under advisement)....

if i ran the zoo, everyone except craw would be on the trading block. my thinking is we are not going to be competitive in '18 and '19 regardless of what moves are made. in '20 posey, belt, and bum will be on the downside of their careers. panik is my boy, but he's replaceable. craw will be elite for another 5-6 yrs imo..

so.. get a game plan, extract as much rebuild value as possible and stop the year-to-year bandaid'ing

as an aside, it was just offered a 25% discount on any group sales (25 tix/game) thru this season. management knows tix sales are waning and offering the same-ol-same-ol won't cut it. fans will want optimism, and rolling out this crew will not cut it...

jmo

 

[LHG]

I must be tripping.

And yeah I was just including other names to be thought about. Biagini wasn't a "must add" and he was snatched up.

I've gotten it wrong before (i.e. Ryder Jones last year). I appreciate the accountability.

I would have put Biagini on that list a couple of years ago. I thought he was a "must add", or close enough to warrant serious discussion. Wonder how he would have done in our bullpen this year.

 

[Stokes1931]

I've gotten it wrong before (i.e. Ryder Jones last year). I appreciate the accountability.

I would have put Biagini on that list a couple of years ago. I thought he was a "must add", or close enough to warrant serious discussion. Wonder how he would have done in our bullpen this year.

Wouldn't fit at all. He's only allowed 3 of 18 inherited runners to score. (and 8 of 44 over 1.5 seasons) Amateur.

Jays have tried him as a starter, and it has not been pretty.

 

[calsnowskier]

I've gotten it wrong before (i.e. Ryder Jones last year). I appreciate the accountability.

I would have put Biagini on that list a couple of years ago. I thought he was a "must add", or close enough to warrant serious discussion. Wonder how he would have done in our bullpen this year.

Had you rejoined the party here when we talking about 40-adds back then? I don't remember anyone mentioning him as a must add before the draft. And even when the Jays took him, most of us were surprised and did not assign any blame since none of us would have protected him either.

 

[Stokes1931]

Had you rejoined the party here when we talking about 40-adds back then? I don't remember anyone mentioning him as a must add before the draft. And even when the Jays took him, most of us were surprised and did not assign any blame since none of us would have protected him either.

Hindsight is 20/20

Memory is not so much

 

[msgkings322]

probably an outlier here (and as a retiree my cocktail hours starts at 3:00, so take this under advisement)....

if i ran the zoo, everyone except craw would be on the trading block. my thinking is we are not going to be competitive in '18 and '19 regardless of what moves are made. in '20 posey, belt, and bum will be on the downside of their careers. panik is my boy, but he's replaceable. craw will be elite for another 5-6 yrs imo..

so.. get a game plan, extract as much rebuild value as possible and stop the year-to-year bandaid'ing

as an aside, it was just offered a 25% discount on any group sales (25 tix/game) thru this season. management knows tix sales are waning and offering the same-ol-same-ol won't cut it. fans will want optimism, and rolling out this crew will not cut it...

jmo

Minor quibble, Crawford sure doesn't look elite this year (at the plate)

 

[stanford the manford]

Minor quibble, Crawford sure doesn't look elite this year (at the plate)

agree.. but i'd be willing to bet this year is an anomaly given his domestic situation

 

[msgkings322]

agree.. but i'd be willing to bet this year is an anomaly given his domestic situation

Fair enough, but Cueto has an anomaly too (blisters), Melancon and Smith got hurt, etc. Just sayin', the glass can be looked at half full or half empty. No one can say for sure how it will go.

 

[stanford the manford]

Fair enough, but Cueto has an anomaly too (blisters), Melancon and Smith got hurt, etc. Just sayin', the glass can be looked at half full or half empty. No one can say for sure how it will go.

agree... i just see craw plateau'ing (? sp) later than the jhonny or malancon... i really haven't seen enough of smith to form an opinion. i have seen enough of moore however.....

 

[Stokes1931]

agree... i just see craw plateau'ing (? sp) later than the jhonny or malancon... i really haven't seen enough of smith to form an opinion. i have seen enough of moore however.....

And what do you think?

 

[stanford the manford]

And what do you think?