2016 FA Market Could Be Even Bigger Than We Think

[trojanfan12]

We've all discussed on here at one time or another, how the salary cap is supposed to increase for the 2016 season. There are some pretty good to great FA's coming up in the 2015 class. There are some veterans who will definitely be looking at max money and some younger guys on the verge of being worth max money.

Could we be looking at a draft class where most of them (especially the higher value FA's) are signing 1 year deals and then becoming free agents again for 2016?

If so, do players move, see how things go with their new team before signing a new deal or moving on? Or do they stay one more season with their old team and then look to sign a longer deal with a new team in 2016?

 

[thunderc]

I think the big names will play for 2016 for sure. Some guys who might not ordinarily get the same deal might be signing long term deals because they are available to them though. That's assuming they are smart enough to take them.

 

[trojanfan12]

I think the big names will play for 2016 for sure. Some guys who might not ordinarily get the same deal might be signing long term deals because they are available to them though. That's assuming they are smart enough to take them.

Yeah, I agree. The player needs to be smart enough to know when he's getting more than he otherwise might.

Also, what I think could be interesting is seeing if players who are on potential contenders, sign for one more year to see if they can get a title and then possibly look to go somewhere else in 2016 if they don't.

For example, does Marc Gasol sign for 1 year with Memphis and if they don't win the title or make the finals, look to go somewhere else in 2016?

 

[WiggyRuss]

I think the big names will play for 2016 for sure. Some guys who might not ordinarily get the same deal might be signing long term deals because they are available to them though. That's assuming they are smart enough to take them.

of course we all know that players are looking at 2016 because there is an anticipated large jump to the cap that year.

For max players its just not as important though unless they re-do the max contract qualifications.

Right now a max player makes like 30% of the teams salary cap- not a set contract number. That number of a "max" deal

To start, maximum salaries are based on the salary cap and experience. Experience levels are split into three groups: 0-6 years, 7-9 years and 10+ years. The more experienced the group, the greater percentage of the salary cap that forms a max contract.

However, a free agent can always get 105% of his previous salary – even if that’s more than his experience calls for.

so- is there really a large incentive to wait?


maybe- but only if the league changes the rules and allows teams to commit more money to max contracts- and only if that player will be able to benefit from it


-also - there is likely to be a "smoothing" out agreement between the league and players association that prevents the kind of turmoil that would accompany a large one year increase. Instead solutions are things like upping everyones salary a certain amount starting next year- so the players get their proportion of BRI (51.5) without having to do it strictly through new contracts. This is already in place in a way ( the escrow system) but its effects would be much more pronounced with the anticipated bump in BRI.

-the game changer is if they change the parameters for max contracts and LeBron canall of a sudden get 40 million a year- or something like that- then it would open up all kinds of different scenarios.

 

[True Lakers Fan]

This is partly the reason I have been saying that the Lakers might not make big moves this summer - they might be waiting for the cash cow in 2016 and with good reason - If Kobe does come back it would be in a diminished role at considerably less money and if they haven't tied any money up, they could be looking to sign three big names like Miami did. The only down side is if they can't convince three big names to sign and end with nothing. It's a risk, for sure, but probably worth it

 

[Flauge]

Add Hassan Whiteside to the list of FA's for 2016. Read an article basically stating because of NBA rules Miami cannot resign him without fully releasing him. Which means he will be a free agent in 2016 as well.

 

[trojanfan12]

Add Hassan Whiteside to the list of FA's for 2016. Read an article basically stating because of NBA rules Miami cannot resign him without fully releasing him. Which means he will be a free agent in 2016 as well.

We all figured he'd be getting a raise, but if he keeps playing like he has, his raise is going to be unbelievable in 2016.

 

[Mecca of the “B” Team]

We've all discussed on here at one time or another, how the salary cap is supposed to increase for the 2016 season. There are some pretty good to great FA's coming up in the 2015 class. There are some veterans who will definitely be looking at max money and some younger guys on the verge of being worth max money.

Could we be looking at a draft class where most of them (especially the higher value FA's) are signing 1 year deals and then becoming free agents again for 2016?

If so, do players move, see how things go with their new team before signing a new deal or moving on? Or do they stay one more season with their old team and then look to sign a longer deal with a new team in 2016?

Depends on the FA.

I think guys like Lebron, Love, Aldridge and M Gasol can take the risk and sign one yr deal with the near certainty of getting a bigger deal in 2016.

*I don't think Aldridge nor Gasol will do so.*

But, Brook Lopez, Al Jefferson, Tyson Chandler?

No.

They will take the money and run because of their extensive injury histories....less so for AL..

I think the 2nd tier guys like Jordan, Milsap, Monroe, Tobias Harris will also take the money and run this Summer.

However, I do wonder how it will affect RFA.

Might guys refuse to take a max offer from the Team that drafted them, if the franchise sucks, by accepting the qualifying offer?

Waiting another year, and becoming a UFA, will allow them to move to the team of their choice while cashing in on a larger contract.

 

[ducky]

Add Hassan Whiteside to the list of FA's for 2016. Read an article basically stating because of NBA rules Miami cannot resign him without fully releasing him. Which means he will be a free agent in 2016 as well.

It's actually worse than that too.

Because Whiteside will only have played two season for the Heat, the Heat will not have full Bird right's. So they can't offer more than the league average salary for him in 2016 if they are over the cap that summer.
So they could get outbid for him if they don't have salary cap space but at this point they are scheduled to have space but who knows what they do this offseason.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Depends on the FA.

I think guys like Lebron, Love, Aldridge and M Gasol can take the risk and sign one yr deal with the near certainty of getting a bigger deal in 2016.

*I don't think Aldridge nor Gasol will do so.*

But, Brook Lopez, Al Jefferson, Tyson Chandler?

No.

They will take the money and run because of their extensive injury histories....less so for AL..

I think the 2nd tier guys like Jordan, Milsap, Monroe, Tobias Harris will also take the money and run this Summer.

However, I do wonder how it will affect RFA.

Might guys refuse to take a max offer from the Team that drafted them, if the franchise sucks, by accepting the qualifying offer?

Waiting another year, and becoming a UFA, will allow them to move to the team of their choice while cashing in on a larger contract.

some very good points.

and as we both were basically saying- guys tend to take the money when they can get it- ESPECIALLY because a max salary is not a specific dollar figure- its tied to a % of the cap.

so it doesnt really matter in the grand scheme of things whether the cap is 65 or 85....if a player signs a max contract he gets a percentage of the cap based on experience.

The only way that this would come back and bite guys is if they are at the very very top tier of players- and the max contract rules are loosened and allow for Jordanesque contracts that get like 40 million a year- and the vast amount of current "max" level players wont ever see that kind of thing.

and like you said- could Gasol and Aldridge possibly take advantage of that? I agree with you that its possible but not probable. - especially when the max is tied to a percentage of the cap anyway.

I also think your exactly right that it could effect the 2nd tier guys like the HArris', Monoroe's etc. a lot more and those guys who right now arent real max guys- have the most incentive to wait.

when your LeBron- you can pretty much do whatever you want to do since you have so much leverage.

but a guy like Aldridge who most likely is looking at offseason surgery- and if he did suffer say a torn ACL or achilees could tank his value?-- theres little incentive not to take the max this offseason.

 

[WiggyRuss]

It's actually worse than that too.

Because Whiteside will only have played two season for the Heat, the Heat will not have full Bird right's. So they can't offer more than the league average salary for him in 2016 if they are over the cap that summer.
So they could get outbid for him if they don't have salary cap space but at this point they are scheduled to have space but who knows what they do this offseason.

this is true....

 

[WiggyRuss]

my solution to the max contract problem is this-

its clear that its unfair that LeBron is restricted to get basically the same "max" deal as Gordon Heyward. both are max guys right now. thats unfair.

Id say that the cap should count the current "max" against the cap- the 22 million LeBron is making- but that each team could designate one "super max" guy. Say the Cavs could give LeBron 40 million a year- but only the current "max" value of 22 counts against the cap.

This would cause talent to be disbursed more evenly throughout the league. It would discourage super teams- and get the best players paid the most.

This way- say like Westbrook would have to decide between taking a "max" worth 22 million to stay with Durant- OR- he could become the Lakers designated "super max" player- and get paid 34 million a year- but only 22 counts against the Lakers cap.

The problem with this is that it effectively destroys the Bird Exception and totally mitigates the built in favor for hometeams to retain their players- but only for teams with 2 great players that would get a super max.

Its a hard issue to resolve- We have seen what a huge contract like Kobe's does to a teams cap. It pretty much cripples the organization from making moves. Its hard for me to imagine LeBron would even take the 40 million a year if it meant his team was crippled from putting talent around him- but that leaves the unfair situation where the LeBrons and Kobes pretty much get the same money as the Gordon Heywards and Eric Bledsoes and Deandre Jordans of the world.

 

[gordontrue]

Depends on the FA.

I think guys like Lebron, Love, Aldridge and M Gasol can take the risk and sign one yr deal with the near certainty of getting a bigger deal in 2016.

*I don't think Aldridge nor Gasol will do so.*

But, Brook Lopez, Al Jefferson, Tyson Chandler?

No.

They will take the money and run because of their extensive injury histories....less so for AL..

I think the 2nd tier guys like Jordan, Milsap, Monroe, Tobias Harris will also take the money and run this Summer.

However, I do wonder how it will affect RFA.

Might guys refuse to take a max offer from the Team that drafted them, if the franchise sucks, by accepting the qualifying offer?

Waiting another year, and becoming a UFA, will allow them to move to the team of their choice while cashing in on a larger contract.

Beat me to it. Yep. The whole sign-one-year-and-wait-for-a-better-deal only works for the elite, can't-miss players. Players that either have injury history or haven't proven they can sustain their current level of play would be taking too much of a gamble going that route.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Beat me to it. Yep. The whole sign-one-year-and-wait-for-a-better-deal only works for the elite, can't-miss players. Players that either have injury history or haven't proven they can sustain their current level of play would be taking too much of a gamble going that route.

I mean even take a guy like Kevin Love. Every team in the league would have begged to give him a max contract.

3-4 months later and I am not sure if that is the case. Imagine if he tears his ACL tomorrow. Then it is DEFINITELY not the case.

2 years ago i would have given Dwade a max without thinking. Right now? highly unlikely

 

[ducky]

Virtually every team in the NBA would offer Love a max contract in a heartbeat.

His play has fallen a little this year as he has struggled to adjust in Cleveland. But he still is unquestionably a top 3 PF in the league that a GM would hand a max contract to right now. Davis obviously is by far away is #1 at that position. And only Griffin compares to Love past that. Everyone else at the position either scares you a little because of age or ability when you are talking about signing them to a 5 year max contract.

 

[Clayton]

my solution to the max contract problem is this-

its clear that its unfair that LeBron is restricted to get basically the same "max" deal as Gordon Heyward. both are max guys right now. thats unfair.

It is unfair but thats where shoe deals and commercials come in. Nobody is buying Gordon Heyward's shoes.

Kevin Love's fate will be decided in the postseason. Bosh was huge for Miami when Lebron was there. Love has to be that big in his own way for Miami to beat Atlanta and/or whoever comes out of the West.

 

[trojanfan12]

my solution to the max contract problem is this-

its clear that its unfair that LeBron is restricted to get basically the same "max" deal as Gordon Heyward. both are max guys right now. thats unfair.

Id say that the cap should count the current "max" against the cap- the 22 million LeBron is making- but that each team could designate one "super max" guy. Say the Cavs could give LeBron 40 million a year- but only the current "max" value of 22 counts against the cap.

This would cause talent to be disbursed more evenly throughout the league. It would discourage super teams- and get the best players paid the most.

This way- say like Westbrook would have to decide between taking a "max" worth 22 million to stay with Durant- OR- he could become the Lakers designated "super max" player- and get paid 34 million a year- but only 22 counts against the Lakers cap.

The problem with this is that it effectively destroys the Bird Exception and totally mitigates the built in favor for hometeams to retain their players- but only for teams with 2 great players that would get a super max.

Its a hard issue to resolve- We have seen what a huge contract like Kobe's does to a teams cap. It pretty much cripples the organization from making moves. Its hard for me to imagine LeBron would even take the 40 million a year if it meant his team was crippled from putting talent around him- but that leaves the unfair situation where the LeBrons and Kobes pretty much get the same money as the Gordon Heywards and Eric Bledsoes and Deandre Jordans of the world.

I like this. It may help to keep teams from "stacking" star players on their team and force teams to make decisions on star players.

For example, right now, Lebron would obviously be Cleveland's super max player, but he's also 30 years old. If they are looking to sign him to a 5 year deal, do they want to be paying a 35 year old Lebron $40 million? Maybe they decide they are better off just giving Lebron a max deal and going with a much younger Kyrie as their super max, since he will be entering his prime during that contract? Whichever way they decide, they risk pissing off the other guy and losing him to someone else.

It would be similar to the choice the Lakers had to make between Shaq and Kobe years ago.

 

[purguy12]

Add Hassan Whiteside to the list of FA's for 2016. Read an article basically stating because of NBA rules Miami cannot resign him without fully releasing him. Which means he will be a free agent in 2016 as well.

wow this kid might get some what paid now. Miami should up signed him long term if they knew what they had. They been looking for a Big for awhile and now he can leave. wow.