2015 Rosterbation

[Mays-Fan]

I agree that neither Peavy nor Vogey should or will get a 2 year deal (remember the discussion we had about the actual miles on their arms, and Peavy has actually thrown more innings than Vogey in his career). As VAS said, if they insist on a longer deal, they can walk.

We have these guys locked in (contract-wise) for 2015...

Cain
Bumgarner
Hudson
Lincecum
Petit (he may be arb, not sure, and too lazy to check Cotts)

Timmeh and Biggie are not ideal options for a contending team to have in their opening-day rotation outside of injuries, so I think we SHOULD account for two holes (but we will likely only address 1 hole).

If the PTBs determine one of Peavy or Vogey as an option, I will trust them, but I would not want to spend more than 6 or 7 for Vogey or 10 for Peavy.

I do not have the FA list in front of me, but I seem to remember there being a small handful of 3/4 types in this class. I am sure we can convince one or two of them to come here at a minor discount (2/20 - 2/24-ish?) because of the park, Bochys handling of pitchers and our contender status.

Agreed, but it may be difficult or even unrealistic to think they could be had for just one-year deals. Not in this market, IMHO.

That being said, as of right now, all else being equal, I would understand 2/12 for Vogey, and 2/18 or 2/20 for Peavy.

Our hitting depth is coming around (Panik, Susac), with a good chance of more on the way (Duvall, Carbonell, Williamson) so we may not be so SP-dependent as in recent years past. And there's always Timmeh in the wings, who I think is still better than he has been post-ASG.

Admittedly, I have not bumped any of this against a 2015 salary budget. Whatever that might be.

 

[tzill]

For the record, learn to read...I didn't say the Giants "abhor" kids. But it's also hard to deny, without blinders on, that the Giants strongly prefer veterans. The Giants resisted bringing Panik up, and when they finally did out of desperation, Sabean baldly stated that Panik wasn't ready. (So much for that notion.) They resigned Arias rather than giving one of the kids a shot. They resigned Blanco. Belt has, in my judgment, been jerked around by management. And really? You're going to rely on first round draft choices like Cain to defend the front office on this count? If they DON'T like their first round picks, then they really DO "abhor" kids. And even then, they resigned a dead in the water Timmy, for HUGE money, than go with someone younger.

Please. If you want to have an argument, don't set up a straw man, that's really boring. Especially when I'm generally a huge backer of both Sabean and Bochy.

1. When Panik came up, he WASN'T ready...or do you not remember his first couple of months? He was called up May 22. On Aug 5 he was hitting .238 (60 ABs). They resisted bringing him up because, in their estimation, he WASN'T READY. For the last month, he's adjusted and been on fire. Extremely unusual for a rookie to do that -- at least one without pedigree like Posey. Nonetheless, we are all overjoyed he's this good this soon. But, it wasn't to be expected.
2. They re-signed Arias because he's a legitimate ML player. One who would make just about any team's bench. Why would you give "one of the kids" a shot? Arias is a career .265 hitter with about 1,000 PA's in the majors...he's proven he's a ML player who defends well at all IF positions.
3. They re-signed Blanco because...wait for it...he's a legitimate ML player. One who would...wait for it...make most ML teams bench. Career .257 hitter with about 2,000 PA's in the majors who is a plus plus defender and can play all three OF positions.
4. Belt was brought up when he was 23 and given the starting 1b job. He struggled his first year, but has been very good since (in the argument for top three in the NL at his position last year). When healthy, has pretty much played (145 games in 2012, 150 last year) full time. He's 26
5. Most "first round draft choices" don't make the show. Cain was promoted when he was 20, and has been full time in the rotation since. Irrespective of which round he was taken, no veteran was "preferred" to him.
6. Timmy made the show when he was 22...again, another kid who they "preferred" to a veteran. I guess your argument is that he, at 29, was "preferred" to a younger pitcher. Which SP should have been promoted? Petit is 29, Escobar flamed out, Heston and Kickham didn't exactly have great seasons worthy of a call up, and Crick, Beede, Flores, Mella, Mejia, Blach, Blackburn, etc...none were deemed ready. Are you implying that you know better than the FO that you claim to be a "huge backer" of?
7. The rest of my list -- Posey, Crawford, Sandoval, Bumgarner, Susac, H Sanchez, J Sanchez, Romo....all kids who were "preferred" to veterans.

In short, there is no evidence that the Giants "prefer veterans" more than most other teams (excepting maybe the A'ss who churn their players with such frequency it makes one's head spin). Compared to other mid and large market teams, I think this "Giants love their vets" meme is simply not true.

A "straw man" as it were.

 

[tzill]

Jeez, I got distracted by the "abhor" thing. (BTW, in fairness, I did make the "hate like poison" comment but I thought it was obvious I was exaggerating, trying to be a little funny about it. Guess I was wrong. Anyway...) I do hope you're right about the Giants not being willing to offer Vogelsong anything more than 1 year. In that event, I would assume he would walk. On the other hand, I don't think I'd even offer him the one year, so it would be moot. Peavy I'm not so sure about. I might do 2 years, IF he's not looking for some crazy amount of money. Someone has to fill the back of the rotation, and while I don't have a list of FA's available, I would guess Peavy's a reasonable choice among that list. And while we MIGHT have one of Petit/Heston/Kickham/etc. in the rotation, I'd have a hard time imagining that the Giants would go into spring training with TWO of them as the odds-on candidates to fill out the rotation.

Here's your list of 2015 FA SPs:

Brett Anderson (27) – $12MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout
Scott Baker (33)
Josh Beckett (35)
Chad Billingsley (30) – $14MM club option with a $3MM buyout
A.J. Burnett (38) – mutual option
Chris Capuano (36)
Bruce Chen (38) – $5.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Wei-Yin Chen (29) – $4.75MM club option with a $372K buyout
Kevin Correia (34)
Johnny Cueto (29) – $10MM club option with an $800K buyout
Ryan Dempster (38)
Gavin Floyd (32)
Yovani Gallardo (29) – $13MM club option with a $600K buyout
Jason Hammel (32)
J.A. Happ (32) – $6.7MM club option
Aaron Harang (37)
Dan Haren (34) – $10MM player option if 180 innings reached in 2014
Roberto Hernandez (34)
Hisashi Iwakuma (34) – $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Josh Johnson (31) – $4MM club option
Kyle Kendrick (30)
Hiroki Kuroda (40)
Jon Lester (31)
Colby Lewis (35)
Francisco Liriano (31)
Paul Maholm (33)
Justin Masterson (30)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (34)
Brandon McCarthy (31)
Franklin Morales (29)
Brandon Morrow (30) – $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Felipe Paulino (31) – $4MM club option with a $250K buyout
Jake Peavy (34)
Wandy Rodriguez (36)
Ervin Santana (32)
Joe Saunders (34)
Max Scherzer (30)
James Shields (33)
Misael Siverio (24)
Kevin Slowey (31)
Carlos Villanueva (31)
Ryan Vogelsong (37)
Edinson Volquez (30)
Jerome Williams (33)
Randy Wolf (38)
Chris Young (36)

The bolded I think will have their options picked up. As you say, Peavy might be a pretty reasonable choice. Especially in the NL West, in our yard. 2/20?

 

[calsnowskier]

I agree that Vogey and Peavy, of the available FA SPs, actually make the most sense for the Giants when you look at expected rotation position, cost and signability.

Lester and Scherzer are clearly the cream of the crop, but Scherzer will cost $$, years AND a pick, and Lester will cost $$ and years. While I am sure the FO will "kick the tires" on both, and they may actually be a "finalist" on one or both of them, I would be shocked (SHOCKED, I tell you) if they get either.

 

[tzill]

I agree that Vogey and Peavy, of the available FA SPs, actually make the most sense for the Giants when you look at expected rotation position, cost and signability.

Lester and Scherzer are clearly the cream of the crop, but Scherzer will cost $$, years AND a pick, and Lester will cost $$ and years. While I am sure the FO will "kick the tires" on both, and they may actually be a "finalist" on one or both of them, I would be shocked (SHOCKED, I tell you) if they get either.

Agreed. Babs is interesting if the doyers don't pick up his option....

 

[calsnowskier]

Only 9 "10"s remain (not counting Ishikawa), and we are likely to lose 2 more this off season (Romo and Panda).

 

[Stokes1931]

Only 9 "10"s remain (not counting Ishikawa), and we are likely to lose 2 more this off season (Romo and Panda).

We may rue seeing Panda go, but I don't think we can afford him. His hitting does not justify a $12-$15 million per year deal, not with needing a lead off hitter who can stay healthy, etc.

I am pleased to see the team getting younger, and kids coming up through the system. Susser and Panik are keepers for sure. We need some OF HELP BADLY, perhaps the Cubans can help there.

 

[calsnowskier]

We may rue seeing Panda go, but I don't think we can afford him. His hitting does not justify a $12-$15 million per year deal, not with needing a lead off hitter who can stay healthy, etc.

I am pleased to see the team getting younger, and kids coming up through the system. Susser and Panik are keepers for sure. We need some OF HELP BADLY, perhaps the Cubans can help there.

One game not-withstanding, Panda is NOT a crunch player. He tends to fold under pressure. And if you look at his overall numbers, they aren't all that dominating. And they trend in the wrong direction (this season I think bucks that trend, but this was a contract year).

If money were a complete non-issue, than, sure. I would rather have him than not. But he will be WAY over-paid and over-paid for too long. No thank you.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Just copying this post from another thread, because it really belongs here:

For 2015 payroll, in rough terms, start with 2014. BBRef has us at $166.6mm, which needs to be adjusted for Peavy. BBRef has us at $14.5 - $3.0 or $11.5 net. We only net paid Peavy $2mm, per MLBTR. So subtract $11.5 - 2.0 = 9.5 from $166.6, and we are at an adjusted $157mm for 2014. Add 7% for FO payroll expansion, about $11mm, and we are at $168mm for 2015. Nothing new here, just reasonable estimation on my part, IMO.

Per BBRef, we are at $125.1mm for 2015, prior to some needed re-signings. Morse, Romo, Guti not re-signed. Some guesswork here, obviously, but Belt at $5mm, Blanco at $4mm (didn't really want to do that, but no internal alternative emerged), Petit at $2mm, Crawford at $1.5mm. That interim subtotal is now $137.6mm. We'll need about $4mm for some young-arb, pre-arb guys (Machi, Kontos, HSan, Panik, Susac, Strickland, etc), to fill out the roster after the key FA moves are made (next para). Conservatively, say we are at $142mm. I'm not too worried about being off $1-$2mm here, because with that as a variable, the FO will adjust to do make the right moves re FAs.

So that leaves $26mm for FAs (168-142). I'm thinking $10mm for Peavy, but we might need $12mm the way he is going. If I'm the FO, Vogey gets $6mm, leaving $8-10mm for an FA OF, and I don't know right now who to target for that. If no Vogey, then that leaves Bum/Jake/Cain/Huddy/Petit as the SPs, with Timmy as the the spot starter, and about $15mm for the FA OF. I would be more comfortable not re-signing Vogey if any of our prospects were MLB-ready, but they are not, IMO.

So while we have some challenges going forward, there is good reason for optimism. Health of the vets (Cain, Pagan, Huddy, etc) is the key to 2015.

And remember, $37mm rolls off after 2015 with Scoots, Timmeh and Huddy.

Respectfully,
Captain Obvious

 

[Mays-Fan]

Romo and Vogey making it difficult for anyone thinking they don't want them on the 2015 roster. Just saying.

 

[msgkings322]

Romo and Vogey making it difficult for anyone thinking they don't want them on the 2015 roster. Just saying.

Panda too...

If we win the WS and those guys keep producing this postseason I can't say I'd mind much if they all get paid.

No one doesn't want those guys on the roster, we just don't think we can afford them. Romo will get paid like a closer somewhere, Panda will probably get 5/100, Vogey we might be able to sign as our 5th starter but I'd hate to sign him and then not be able to get Peavy...

But wanting them back? Hell yes I want all 3. It'll come down to $$.

 

[calsnowskier]

Romo and Vogey making it difficult for anyone thinking they don't want them on the 2015 roster. Just saying.

Vogey is competing with Petit, and I think Petit has more upside. Still a few variables out there to be able to say 100%, though.

Romo is gone. We are STACKED with bully arms, and he is getting expensive.

 

[calsnowskier]

Speaking of Peavey, did anyone see his interview by FS1 during the celebration? I am a fan of this guy now. Talk about professional. All about propping Bochy and the rest of the team.

Also, he really seems to love it here.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Speaking of Peavey, did anyone see his interview by FS1 during the celebration? I am a fan of this guy now. Talk about professional. All about propping Bochy and the rest of the team.

Also, he really seems to love it here.

Yeah, he did an in-game interview a couple weeks back (not a game he was pitching, IIRC), and I had the same reaction. As fiery as he is when he pitches, he was very articulate and charming, if you will. Intelligent, respectful, witty - he even has a good media voice and could get a color job somewhere when he's done pitching and investing his megamillions.

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

Sandoval could end up being a star in the NLCS. But if we are at three-years for him and their are multiple teams willing to go 5-100M+, they can have him. The whole at 3B would suck, but we can't pay Sandoval 20M+

 

[calsnowskier]

Sandoval could end up being a star in the NLCS. But if we are at three-years for him and their are multiple teams willing to go 5-100M+, they can have him. The whole at 3B would suck, but we can't pay Sandoval 20M+

Giving him 5 years would just about guarantee that his numbers will plummet. He just doesn't have the work-ethic to be productive when $$ is not a concern, I think.

A 3-year deal, I think, will offer enough incentive for him to continue to keep his numbers north of pedestrian.



Now, given this, I have no idea what solutions we have "when" he walks. I guess we either go with Duffy, or work a trade. Someone here mentioned Donaldson, but there is no way Beane would trade with the Giants. What was the last A's/Giants trade? Beck?

 

[Mays-Fan]

Giving him 5 years would just about guarantee that his numbers will plummet. He just doesn't have the work-ethic to be productive when $$ is not a concern, I think.

A 3-year deal, I think, will offer enough incentive for him to continue to keep his numbers north of pedestrian.



Now, given this, I have no idea what solutions we have "when" he walks. I guess we either go with Duffy, or work a trade. Someone here mentioned Donaldson, but there is no way Beane would trade with the Giants. What was the last A's/Giants trade? Beck?

If we let Panda walk, I go back to moving Posey to third. Maybe Duffy or Arias or Duvall when Posey has to catch. This is assuming Susac can be the regular catcher. I don't believe Posey's transition would be difficult for him. It's not perfect but no solution is.

We would miss Panda for his glove more than for his bat.

 

[TKellion]

C-Susac
1B-Belt
2B-Panik
3B-Posey
SS-Crawford
OF-Pence
OF-Pagan
OF-Carbonnell

Go ahead and give Panda his QO and get the draft picks,Move Posey to 3B.

Give Panik 2B,Bring up Carbonell for LF and make Susac the #1 catcher

Get rid of Blanco,Perez,Arias and No need to resign a single FA position player.

BN-Duffy
BN-Duvall
BN-Sanchez
BN-Brown(cant be worse than Perez,Blanco and many others not named)
BN-?

DFA Arias he flat out blows.

SP-Bum
SP-Cain
SP-Peavy
SP-?
SP-Hudson

I cant see Peavy not wanting to return.We have plenty of options for the last rotation spot.Heston,Petit,resign Vogelsong,Lincecum(sadly),Kickham,Crick,Blackburn,Blach

RP-Casilla
RP-Lopez
RP-Affeldt
RP-Machi
RP-Lincecum
RP-Law
RP-Strickland

Timmy becomes the most expensive long reliever spot starter in the league.

I looked at the FA list and it just blows except for Nelson Cruz but I am ready to move on from Pablo.Posey needs a new position and I dont want to give up on Belt just yet which makes 3B the best spot for him.He cant be any less mobile than Sandoval.

Fill out the bench internally,find out who can contribute and start weeding out those that cant hack the MB level.

If Belt just doesnt break out offer up the farm for Kris Bryant or someone like him.This is not what I expect to happen just what I would like to happen.We have a year to figure it out since they seem to be cursed in odd numbered years

 

[Mays-Fan]

C-Susac
1B-Belt
2B-Panik
3B-Posey
SS-Crawford
OF-Pence
OF-Pagan
OF-Carbonnell

Go ahead and give Panda his QO and get the draft picks,Move Posey to 3B.

Give Panik 2B,Bring up Carbonell for LF and make Susac the #1 catcher

Get rid of Blanco,Perez,Arias and No need to resign a single FA position player.

BN-Duffy
BN-Duvall
BN-Sanchez
BN-Brown(cant be worse than Perez,Blanco and many others not named)
BN-?

DFA Arias he flat out blows.

SP-Bum
SP-Cain
SP-Peavy
SP-?
SP-Hudson

I cant see Peavy not wanting to return.We have plenty of options for the last rotation spot.Heston,Petit,resign Vogelsong,Lincecum(sadly),Kickham,Crick,Blackburn,Blach

RP-Casilla
RP-Lopez
RP-Affeldt
RP-Machi
RP-Lincecum
RP-Law
RP-Strickland

Timmy becomes the most expensive long reliever spot starter in the league.

I looked at the FA list and it just blows except for Nelson Cruz but I am ready to move on from Pablo.Posey needs a new position and I dont want to give up on Belt just yet which makes 3B the best spot for him.He cant be any less mobile than Sandoval.

Fill out the bench internally,find out who can contribute and start weeding out those that cant hack the MB level.

If Belt just doesnt break out offer up the farm for Kris Bryant or someone like him.This is not what I expect to happen just what I would like to happen.We have a year to figure it out since they seem to be cursed in odd numbered years

I like the sentiments for the most part, but I don't think we can rely on Carbonell to be a starter esp so soon. If we don't sign Panda, we will have plenty of budget for a quality OF. I'm thinking Tomas. Esp with Pagan now unreliable healthwise.

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

C-Susac
1B-Belt
2B-Panik
3B-Posey
SS-Crawford
OF-Pence
OF-Pagan
OF-Carbonnell

Go ahead and give Panda his QO and get the draft picks,Move Posey to 3B.

Give Panik 2B,Bring up Carbonell for LF and make Susac the #1 catcher

Get rid of Blanco,Perez,Arias and No need to resign a single FA position player.

BN-Duffy
BN-Duvall
BN-Sanchez
BN-Brown(cant be worse than Perez,Blanco and many others not named)
BN-?

DFA Arias he flat out blows.

SP-Bum
SP-Cain
SP-Peavy
SP-?
SP-Hudson

I cant see Peavy not wanting to return.We have plenty of options for the last rotation spot.Heston,Petit,resign Vogelsong,Lincecum(sadly),Kickham,Crick,Blackburn,Blach

RP-Casilla
RP-Lopez
RP-Affeldt
RP-Machi
RP-Lincecum
RP-Law
RP-Strickland

Timmy becomes the most expensive long reliever spot starter in the league.

I looked at the FA list and it just blows except for Nelson Cruz but I am ready to move on from Pablo.Posey needs a new position and I dont want to give up on Belt just yet which makes 3B the best spot for him.He cant be any less mobile than Sandoval.

Fill out the bench internally,find out who can contribute and start weeding out those that cant hack the MB level.

If Belt just doesnt break out offer up the farm for Kris Bryant or someone like him.This is not what I expect to happen just what I would like to happen.We have a year to figure it out since they seem to be cursed in odd numbered years

I still want to keep Blanco. He was never a starting OF but he is a reliable 4th OF and we need that.

I would explore Chase Headley as a cheaper one to two-year alternate at 3B. I think assuming Posey can make the transition to 3B and play it well is far too risky. Keep him at catcher another year. If Belt can play LF, should consider trading him. Open up 1B for Posey, make Susac the every day C.

Could go big after Tomas, though reports are it will cost 100M+. If we can't get him, then things get more tricky. Maybe look at Alex Rios as a cheaper, short-term option