2015 Rosterbation

[Mays-Fan]

A couple of people mentiond Vogelsong - he isn't signed for 2015 (not even an option year). If Voges is in the starting 5 next year, he needs a new contract. (He'll be 37 in less than a month.)

I'm fine with that (not like the FO needs my permission). Maybe even 2/10 or 2/12. After his horrendous start, he has done rather well. Plus, our SP situation is far from deep or settled. Sure we have some depth in AA esp, but obviously none of it is MLB-proven. And we likely won't do any better in the FA market. He deserves at least another year.

 

[tzill]

You think Gutierrez will be back? I don't see it. During he game last night Kruk was going off him because of his pacing, and it seemed that he was hinting that it was something that drives Boch and Raggs crazy.

While he has had a very fine season, I suspect he will be a one-and-done with us.


Also, while I am not a fan of Peavey's act, he has done quite well for us, and his relationship with Boch is well documented. I suspect he will be back next year. Not sure who's spot he takes, though (Vogey or Timmeh)

Well, Guti has a couple of things going for him. 1, he's had a nice year. 2, he's Arb3 this offseason. I could see them bringing him back, and I could also see them not offering arb. If there's one thing I trust SabeySabes to do, it's to give Bochy a solid bullpen to manage.

Per Timmah: they won't eat the $18MM he's owed next year. They didn't do it with Zeets and they won't do it with Freak. He's a starter unless he completely implodes, and they won't even concede THAT before the ASB. You're right that Peavy may be brought back instead of Tron, but he'll be more expensive.

 

[tzill]

I'm fine with that (not like the FO needs my permission). Maybe even 2/10 or 2/12. After his horrendous start, he has done rather well. Plus, our SP situation is far from deep or settled. Sure we have some depth in AA esp, but obviously none of it is MLB-proven. And we likely won't do any better in the FA market. He deserves at least another year.

It'll be interesting with Tron. I don't know that he'll sign to be a #6 guy, so they might have to promise him a rotation spot as they did this year. If he doesn't sign with us, he likely will have plenty of interest elsewhere.

I think they will have to choose between Peavy and Tron, and not keep both.

 

[msgkings322]

A couple of people mentiond Vogelsong - he isn't signed for 2015 (not even an option year). If Voges is in the starting 5 next year, he needs a new contract. (He'll be 37 in less than a month.)

Vogelsong seems like the kind of guy who can be effective even when older, he's not a power pitcher by any means, relies on location and control, so if he can do it at 36 why not 37-38?

Like tzill said it'll probably be an either/or thing with Peavy.

 

[SFGRTB]

Guti will probably be replaced with another dumpster dive minor league ST invite guy. That's been the trend ever since Boch has been manager. Some guys stick (Casilla, Machi, Mota, Petit), some move on (Medders, Bautista, Hensley, Gaudin, Rosario). Guti strikes me more as the guy who will not stick.

Peavy and Vogly will be interesting cases. If Peavy keeps this up, he could probably con a team into giving him a 3 year deal, given he's still only 33. I think we are going to have to replace him some how. Vogly will probably be on another one year deal, but he could lobby for a 2 year deal and have a decent case. It will be Giants or the golf course though, he's not going anywhere else.

 

[calsnowskier]

Next year MAY be the year they do not dumpster dive. We have so many "kids" who should be knocking on the door (Strickland, Hall, Bochy, Kick, Cordier, Osich, etc)

 

[SFGRTB]

Next year MAY be the year they do not dumpster dive. We have so many "kids" who should be knocking on the door (Strickland, Hall, Bochy, Kick, Cordier, Osich, etc)

They'll dumpster dive, but they'll give the kids a fair shot for once (Law was sign). I agree with tzill that Strickland has a good chance. September will be telling. They loved him pre-Tommy John in 2013. I'm also excited to see Cordier. They'll also probably be grooming a new closer soon.

 

[tzill]

I've been rethinking this for a while now. It seems we've found our 2b and reserve C.

I see it like this:

SP: Bum/Huddy/Horse/Tron/Peavy -- I don't think Crick or any of the other SP will be ready until midseason 2015.
RP: KCya/JA/Machi/JLo/Kontos/Petit/Timmah -- Can't see spending big money on Romo, esp if they have to spend on Peavy and Tron
C: MVP/Susser -- Hacktor probably starts in Fresno and is traded
IF: BB9/Panik/Stamos/Panda/Kobe/Duffman -- I think Scoots is done
OF: Herk/Oxy/Shark/Carbonell/Brown -- can't see getting a FA or re-signing Beast

 

[calsnowskier]

I've been rethinking this for a while now. It seems we've found our 2b and reserve C.

I see it like this:

SP: Bum/Huddy/Horse/Tron/Peavy -- I don't think Crick or any of the other SP will be ready until midseason 2015.
RP: KCya/JA/Machi/JLo/Kontos/Petit/Timmah -- Can't see spending big money on Romo, esp if they have to spend on Peavy and Tron
C: MVP/Susser -- Hacktor probably starts in Fresno and is traded
IF: BB9/Panik/Stamos/Panda/Kobe/Duffman -- I think Scoots is done
OF: Herk/Oxy/Shark/Carbonell/Brown -- can't see getting a FA or re-signing Beast

We will see about Brown. While I am excited about Carbonell, I suspect he will be a mid-season call-up.

I do not know how, but I think the bully will go through a bit of a shakeup. Kontos is out of options, and he is a definite keeper. Strickland may be given the 9th inning job. I just don't see how that happens barring a trade or 3. I can see KCYa and Kontos as trade bait.

 

[tzill]

We will see about Brown. While I am excited about Carbonell, I suspect he will be a mid-season call-up.

I do not know how, but I think the bully will go through a bit of a shakeup. Kontos is out of options, and he is a definite keeper. Strickland may be given the 9th inning job. I just don't see how that happens barring a trade or 3. I can see KCYa and Kontos as trade bait.

Good points; maybe they'll eat a bunch of money and trade Timmah?

 

[calsnowskier]

Good points; maybe they'll eat a bunch of money and trade Timmah?

Not gunna happen.

1) No one wants him. He is useless.

2) He is loved here. He will live out his contract, then either retire or become Dontrell Willis.

 

[msgkings322]

Not gunna happen.

1) No one wants him. He is useless.

2) He is loved here. He will live out his contract, then either retire or become Dontrell Willis.

Yup. And only the Mariners likely to take a chance on him.

Although, if the bolded is true, don't we have to DFA him? You can't waste the roster spot...or two if Hacktor is required...

 

[SFGRTB]

We will see about Brown. While I am excited about Carbonell, I suspect he will be a mid-season call-up.

I do not know how, but I think the bully will go through a bit of a shakeup. Kontos is out of options, and he is a definite keeper. Strickland may be given the 9th inning job. I just don't see how that happens barring a trade or 3. I can see KCYa and Kontos as trade bait.

I could get behind this idea, Casilla's trade value will never be higher. Package him with Hacktor and you might actually get something pretty decent. We got Pagan for a reliever and struggling CFer.

Strickland is being groomed as a closer. I think it will be his job next year, more reason to trade KCYa while you can.

 

[VASFfan]

This is just a semi-random thought, but about our 2015 rotation...it's probably a foregone conclusion that we MUST sign one veteran starter, either some other team's free agent or one of our own, Vogelsong or Peavy. But consider Vogelsong. He's closer to 40 than 30, probably expects a fairly rich deal (somewhere north of $6M and probably he thinks he deserves closer to $10M) and almost assuredly wants at LEAST a 2 year deal. He's a perfectly decent, back-of-the-rotation guy. But rather than plow anywhere near that much cash into such a pitcher, would we just be better off plugging someone like a Petit or Heston or Kickham into the rotation for a perhaps limited amount of time, and for a lot less money, until Krick or Blackburn or Stratton or Blach or whoever is ready to take over?

Ok, you can stop laughing now. I know we're talking about the Giants, a team that prefers the vets and that historically hates young guys like poison. But rather than overpay for someone like Vogelsong, maybe it's best to take the long view and think, ok, we can save some money here in the short-term and prepare for the future when we've got a wealth of young guys who should be ready in the next 1 to 2 years (tops), and who we don't want to be blocked by a "perfectly decent" but mediocre guy like Vogelsong. True, it would require having faith in our system, that we've got some guys who can do Vogelsong's job for a year, or less, and do it much cheaper. And maybe such faith isn't merited. (Every time Kickham shows up, he seems to have this insatiable desire to implode.) But, on balance, I think I'd rather take a chance on a young guy, rather than re-up with Ryan.

Of course, if the Giants decide to spend big on TWO veteran free-agents, that would be fine too!

 

[tzill]

This is just a semi-random thought, but about our 2015 rotation...it's probably a foregone conclusion that we MUST sign one veteran starter, either some other team's free agent or one of our own, Vogelsong or Peavy. But consider Vogelsong. He's closer to 40 than 30, probably expects a fairly rich deal (somewhere north of $6M and probably he thinks he deserves closer to $10M) and almost assuredly wants at LEAST a 2 year deal. He's a perfectly decent, back-of-the-rotation guy. But rather than plow anywhere near that much cash into such a pitcher, would we just be better off plugging someone like a Petit or Heston or Kickham into the rotation for a perhaps limited amount of time, and for a lot less money, until Krick or Blackburn or Stratton or Blach or whoever is ready to take over?

Ok, you can stop laughing now. I know we're talking about the Giants, a team that prefers the vets and that historically hates young guys like poison. But rather than overpay for someone like Vogelsong, maybe it's best to take the long view and think, ok, we can save some money here in the short-term and prepare for the future when we've got a wealth of young guys who should be ready in the next 1 to 2 years (tops), and who we don't want to be blocked by a "perfectly decent" but mediocre guy like Vogelsong. True, it would require having faith in our system, that we've got some guys who can do Vogelsong's job for a year, or less, and do it much cheaper. And maybe such faith isn't merited. (Every time Kickham shows up, he seems to have this insatiable desire to implode.) But, on balance, I think I'd rather take a chance on a young guy, rather than re-up with Ryan.

Of course, if the Giants decide to spend big on TWO veteran free-agents, that would be fine too!

I doubt that the Giants will start 2015 with any of the farm SP arms. I also doubt they'll give PeaveMe or Tron more than one year, for the reasons you mention. Thus, if either is fixated on a two year deal, SabeySabes will let him walk. By 2016, we should have 2-3 of the arms ready (Crick, Stratton, Mejia, Beede, Kickham, Blackburn, Blach, Agosta, Heston). One could argue that Kick is no longer a future prospect and has a chance to crack the 2015 rotation out of ST.

As for the myth that the Giants abhor kids in favor of vets: Posey, Belt, Panik, Crawford, Sandoval, Susac, Bumgarner, Cain, Lincecum, JSanchez, Hacktor, Romo all say "hi."

 

[msgkings322]

I doubt that the Giants will start 2015 with any of the farm SP arms. I also doubt they'll give PeaveMe or Tron more than one year, for the reasons you mention. Thus, if either is fixated on a two year deal, SabeySabes will let him walk. By 2016, we should have 2-3 of the arms ready (Crick, Stratton, Mejia, Beede, Kickham, Blackburn, Blach, Agosta, Heston). One could argue that Kick is no longer a future prospect and has a chance to crack the 2015 rotation out of ST.

As for the myth that the Giants abhor kids in favor of vets: Posey, Belt, Panik, Crawford, Sandoval, Susac, Bumgarner, Cain, Lincecum, JSanchez, Hacktor, Romo all say "hi."

Peavy is only 33, I think they'd be ok signing him for 2 or even 3 years. And I'd be on board with that, I already like Peavy a lot in orange and black, he's a perfect fit here, like Hudson only younger. But I doubt Vogelsong comes back.

 

[calsnowskier]

I agree that neither Peavy nor Vogey should or will get a 2 year deal (remember the discussion we had about the actual miles on their arms, and Peavy has actually thrown more innings than Vogey in his career). As VAS said, if they insist on a longer deal, they can walk.

We have these guys locked in (contract-wise) for 2015...

Cain
Bumgarner
Hudson
Lincecum
Petit (he may be arb, not sure, and too lazy to check Cotts)

Timmeh and Biggie are not ideal options for a contending team to have in their opening-day rotation outside of injuries, so I think we SHOULD account for two holes (but we will likely only address 1 hole).

If the PTBs determine one of Peavy or Vogey as an option, I will trust them, but I would not want to spend more than 6 or 7 for Vogey or 10 for Peavy.

I do not have the FA list in front of me, but I seem to remember there being a small handful of 3/4 types in this class. I am sure we can convince one or two of them to come here at a minor discount (2/20 - 2/24-ish?) because of the park, Bochys handling of pitchers and our contender status.

 

[VASFfan]

I doubt that the Giants will start 2015 with any of the farm SP arms. I also doubt they'll give PeaveMe or Tron more than one year, for the reasons you mention. Thus, if either is fixated on a two year deal, SabeySabes will let him walk. By 2016, we should have 2-3 of the arms ready (Crick, Stratton, Mejia, Beede, Kickham, Blackburn, Blach, Agosta, Heston). One could argue that Kick is no longer a future prospect and has a chance to crack the 2015 rotation out of ST.

As for the myth that the Giants abhor kids in favor of vets: Posey, Belt, Panik, Crawford, Sandoval, Susac, Bumgarner, Cain, Lincecum, JSanchez, Hacktor, Romo all say "hi."

For the record, learn to read...I didn't say the Giants "abhor" kids. But it's also hard to deny, without blinders on, that the Giants strongly prefer veterans. The Giants resisted bringing Panik up, and when they finally did out of desperation, Sabean baldly stated that Panik wasn't ready. (So much for that notion.) They resigned Arias rather than giving one of the kids a shot. They resigned Blanco. Belt has, in my judgment, been jerked around by management. And really? You're going to rely on first round draft choices like Cain to defend the front office on this count? If they DON'T like their first round picks, then they really DO "abhor" kids. And even then, they resigned a dead in the water Timmy, for HUGE money, than go with someone younger.

Please. If you want to have an argument, don't set up a straw man, that's really boring. Especially when I'm generally a huge backer of both Sabean and Bochy.

 

[VASFfan]

I doubt that the Giants will start 2015 with any of the farm SP arms. I also doubt they'll give PeaveMe or Tron more than one year, for the reasons you mention. Thus, if either is fixated on a two year deal, SabeySabes will let him walk. By 2016, we should have 2-3 of the arms ready (Crick, Stratton, Mejia, Beede, Kickham, Blackburn, Blach, Agosta, Heston). One could argue that Kick is no longer a future prospect and has a chance to crack the 2015 rotation out of ST.

As for the myth that the Giants abhor kids in favor of vets: Posey, Belt, Panik, Crawford, Sandoval, Susac, Bumgarner, Cain, Lincecum, JSanchez, Hacktor, Romo all say "hi."

Jeez, I got distracted by the "abhor" thing. (BTW, in fairness, I did make the "hate like poison" comment but I thought it was obvious I was exaggerating, trying to be a little funny about it. Guess I was wrong. Anyway...) I do hope you're right about the Giants not being willing to offer Vogelsong anything more than 1 year. In that event, I would assume he would walk. On the other hand, I don't think I'd even offer him the one year, so it would be moot. Peavy I'm not so sure about. I might do 2 years, IF he's not looking for some crazy amount of money. Someone has to fill the back of the rotation, and while I don't have a list of FA's available, I would guess Peavy's a reasonable choice among that list. And while we MIGHT have one of Petit/Heston/Kickham/etc. in the rotation, I'd have a hard time imagining that the Giants would go into spring training with TWO of them as the odds-on candidates to fill out the rotation.

 

[calsnowskier]

From MLBTR...

Brett Anderson (27) – $12MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout
Scott Baker (33)
Josh Beckett (35)
Chad Billingsley (30) – $14MM club option with a $3MM buyout
A.J. Burnett (38) – mutual option
Chris Capuano (36)
Bruce Chen (38) – $5.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Wei-Yin Chen (29) – $4.75MM club option with a $372K buyout
Kevin Correia (34)
Johnny Cueto (29) – $10MM club option with an $800K buyout
Ryan Dempster (38)
Gavin Floyd (32)
Yovani Gallardo (29) – $13MM club option with a $600K buyout
Jason Hammel (32)
J.A. Happ (32) – $6.7MM club option
Aaron Harang (37)
Dan Haren (34) – $10MM player option if 180 innings reached in 2014
Roberto Hernandez (34)
Hisashi Iwakuma (34) – $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Josh Johnson (31) – $4MM club option
Kyle Kendrick (30)
Hiroki Kuroda (40)
Jon Lester (31)
Colby Lewis (35)
Francisco Liriano (31)
Paul Maholm (33)
Justin Masterson (30)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (34)
Brandon McCarthy (31)
Franklin Morales (29)
Brandon Morrow (30) – $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Felipe Paulino (31) – $4MM club option with a $250K buyout
Jake Peavy (34)
Wandy Rodriguez (36)
Ervin Santana (32)
Joe Saunders (34)
Max Scherzer (30)
James Shields (33)
Misael Siverio (24)
Kevin Slowey (31)
Carlos Villanueva (31)
Ryan Vogelsong (37)
Edinson Volquez (30)
Jerome Williams (33)
Randy Wolf (38)
Chris Young (36)