2015 Rosterbation

[Mays-Fan]

Add this to the Panda thinking: If we don't re-sign him, we'll either have to play a (possibly quite) substandard and/or untested replacement for him (Arias, Duffy, Duvall), apparently not Posey, or likely overpay for a free agent third baseman (Headley?). What does THAT cost?

I know it's been mentioned, but Panda, and perhaps Pagan's surgery, has become the fork in the road for us in 2015 and beyond. We either sign him and fight to stay in contention, or we clean house (don't re-sign Peavy or Vogey or Romo or Morse) and rebuild.

If Pagan's surgery was as successful as he says it was, I would favor re-signing Sandoval and damn the torpedoes.

 

[calsnowskier]

Yesterday, there was a story on MLBTR saying that even Panda's team does not know where the 100M number came from, and they would be ecstatic to get a deal like that...

"I don’t know where that came from, but he’d be happy and I’d be happy"


Yasmany Tomas Rumors: Tuesday ? MLB Trade Rumors

 

[Montalban]

Boston Red Sox said just now that they are going all in on Sandoval and will give him a 6 year deal if needed. They plan to use him as a DH after Ortiz retires and at 3rd until then. Ortiz has 1 year left on his contract.

:sick:

I heard that as well this morning. Not good news if you are in the camp that wants to keep Sandoval.

 

[Montalban]

Add this to the Panda thinking: If we don't re-sign him, we'll either have to play a (possibly quite) substandard and/or untested replacement for him (Arias, Duffy, Duvall), apparently not Posey, or likely overpay for a free agent third baseman (Headley?). What does THAT cost?

I know it's been mentioned, but Panda, and perhaps Pagan's surgery, has become the fork in the road for us in 2015 and beyond. We either sign him and fight to stay in contention, or we clean house (don't re-sign Peavy or Vogey or Romo or Morse) and rebuild.

If Pagan's surgery was as successful as he says it was, I would favor re-signing Sandoval and damn the torpedoes.

I'm intrigued by the idea of Duffy at 3B if Sandoval does not re-sign. The more I saw of him, the better I liked him. I absolutely loved his dash home from second on the wild pitch in the NLCS. He seems to be able to hit a little as well.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Yesterday, there was a story on MLBTR saying that even Panda's team does not know where the 100M number came from, and they would be ecstatic to get a deal like that...

"I don’t know where that came from, but he’d be happy and I’d be happy"


Yasmany Tomas Rumors: Tuesday ? MLB Trade Rumors

FWIW, Jay Alou, Tomas's agent, is Jesus Alou's son. Jesus Alou, former Giant, and Matty and Felipe's brother of course, has been Boston's director of Dominican operations since 2002.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesús_Alou

 

[calsnowskier]

I'm intrigued by the idea of Duffy at 3B if Sandoval does not re-sign. The more I saw of him, the better I liked him. I absolutely loved his dash home from second on the wild pitch in the NLCS. He seems to be able to hit a little as well.

I am not sure that Duffy has the arm for 3B (ignorance, not a challenge). If he does not, though, I think his D is good enough to man SS, and if they decide to go with Craw and Duffy, moving Craw to 3B may be the answer. Although, 3B is a different set of skills from SS. SS is about range and positioning while 3B is about reflexes. I am not sure Craw has that (again, ignorance, not challenge). Of course we also have EA and Arias to add to the mix.

I would certainly rather go with one of these mentioned internal options rather than go after Headley. Headley would cost a decent amount of money (10M aav?), and he has not done jack since his big year a few years back.

 

[calsnowskier]

FWIW, Jay Alou, Tomas's agent, is Jesus Alou's son. Jesus Alou, former Giant, and Matty and Felipe's brother of course, has been Boston's director of Dominican operations since 2002.

Shit, that was in regards to Tomas, not Panda...

My bad.

Not sure how I got that mixed up with Panda.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I'm intrigued by the idea of Duffy at 3B if Sandoval does not re-sign. The more I saw of him, the better I liked him. I absolutely loved his dash home from second on the wild pitch in the NLCS. He seems to be able to hit a little as well.

Very, very SSS.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Shit, that was in regards to Tomas, not Panda...

My bad.

Not sure how I got that mixed up with Panda.

If we signed Tomas, and presumably not Panda, that would be the exception to my "signing Panda or not is the fork in the road for 2015 and beyond" theme. Signing Tomas would be a linchpin to the "full speed ahead" scenario as well.

Although Tomas will likely not fully develop for a year or three. So signing Tomas could well be part of a re-build theme as well.

 

[msgkings322]

If we signed Tomas, and presumably not Panda, that would be the exception to my "signing Panda or not is the fork in the road for 2015 and beyond" theme. Signing Tomas would be a linchpin to the "full speed ahead" scenario as well.

Although Tomas will likely not fully develop for a year or three. So signing Tomas could well be part of a re-build theme as well.

Well, you all are sick of hearing my take. Not that we should 'rebuild' but that we should play the long game with 2015, work on contending in 2016.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Well, you all are sick of hearing my take. Not that we should 'rebuild' but that we should play the long game with 2015, work on contending in 2016.

Although that really has not been the historical thinking of the FO, IMHO. It's easy, but incorrect, to look back and say that the FO has been doing some sort of "even year championship building", but it's just been fate that it worked out that way. The FO has, IMO, done their level best and in good faith, tried to put the best team out there that they could EVERY year, and there is no reason to think they wouldn't do the same in 2015.

 

[msgkings322]

Although that really has not been the historical thinking of the FO, IMHO. It's easy, but incorrect, to look back and say that the FO has been doing some sort of "even year championship building", but it's just been fate that it worked out that way. The FO has, IMO, done their level best and in good faith, tried to put the best team out there that they could EVERY year, and there is no reason to think they wouldn't do the same in 2015.

Kind of. To me it looked more like they'd win a ring, then bring basically the same team back...and that doesn't usually work the next year, due to regression, injury, simple luck. Frankly a big part of winning it all is unexpected luck, like Wellenmeyer getting hurt = Bumgarner up and terrific, plus Huff, Vogelsong and Scutaro in 2012, Panik and to a lesser extent Susac this year, etc.

We may very well get lucky with something unexpected and win in 2015, but I don't want them to make dumb moves to do so, why force it? It's not like we're starved for championships anymore. I don't think they will actively tank or try not to win, but I hope they don't make panic moves to force it in 2015.

 

[calsnowskier]

Kind of. To me it looked more like they'd win a ring, then bring basically the same team back...and that doesn't usually work the next year, due to regression, injury, simple luck. Frankly a big part of winning it all is unexpected luck, like Wellenmeyer getting hurt = Bumgarner up and terrific, plus Huff, Vogelsong and Scutaro in 2012, Panik and to a lesser extent Susac this year, etc.

We may very well get lucky with something unexpected and win in 2015, but I don't want them to make dumb moves to do so, why force it? It's not like we're starved for championships anymore. I don't think they will actively tank or try not to win, but I hope they don't make panic moves to force it in 2015.

The End-of-Year Giants in '10 was a COMPLETELY different team from the Beginning-of-Year Giants. Bringing THAT team back was a smart move. We still had (or expected to have) SUPER-elite pitching, and the offense looked like it could be above average. Until Posey went down (and for a short time after as well), that Giants team looked like it could put together a legit repeat-run. The stress on the offense to withstand the loss of Posey and the nose-dive of Huff was just too much, and when China-Doll came over and tanked and then got hurt, the team threw in the towel. It just wasn't our year.

'13 was a good team until Pagan went down, followed by Belt and Scutaro. We still had 2 Aces going into the season with 2 Solid-ish starters behind with Timmeh and Vogey, and a re-energized Zito. That team, going in was a decent contender. It just didn't happen.

2014, quite frankly, was a complete surprise. THIS year needs more shuffling than the past, but the org is arguably less able to shuffle because of salaries paid for the previous success of the team and a VERY weak FA class. We don't have superstars coming up through the system like we had 5 years ago.

 

[tzill]

Although that really has not been the historical thinking of the FO, IMHO. It's easy, but incorrect, to look back and say that the FO has been doing some sort of "even year championship building", but it's just been fate that it worked out that way. The FO has, IMO, done their level best and in good faith, tried to put the best team out there that they could EVERY year, and there is no reason to think they wouldn't do the same in 2015.

Agreed. If they were building for a championship in 2014, they did a piss-poor job of it as they almost missed the playoffs altogether.

They're trying to win it all every year.

 

[tzill]

The End-of-Year Giants in '10 was a COMPLETELY different team from the Beginning-of-Year Giants. Bringing THAT team back was a smart move. We still had (or expected to have) SUPER-elite pitching, and the offense looked like it could be above average. Until Posey went down (and for a short time after as well), that Giants team looked like it could put together a legit repeat-run. The stress on the offense to withstand the loss of Posey and the nose-dive of Huff was just too much, and when China-Doll came over and tanked and then got hurt, the team threw in the towel. It just wasn't our year.

'13 was a good team until Pagan went down, followed by Belt and Scutaro. We still had 2 Aces going into the season with 2 Solid-ish starters behind with Timmeh and Vogey, and a re-energized Zito. That team, going in was a decent contender. It just didn't happen.

2014, quite frankly, was a complete surprise. THIS year needs more shuffling than the past, but the org is arguably less able to shuffle because of salaries paid for the previous success of the team and a VERY weak FA class. We don't have superstars coming up through the system like we had 5 years ago.

I was with you 100% up to the last sentence. We just don't know.

Crick, Mella, Blach, Beede, Williamson, Carbonell, Arroyo, Stratton, Garcia could all be stars for all we know. Thing is, you usually can't predict superstars -- even Posey had his distractors at the draft.

Moreover, we don't need more superstars to contend; solid contributors with the stars with have plus decent health could get us there.

And besides, we all know Susac is a perennial all star in waiting....

 

[tzill]

Us or Bo$ox...

Report: Sandoval market appears down to two teams | CSN Bay Area

 

[Montalban]

I am not sure that Duffy has the arm for 3B (ignorance, not a challenge). If he does not, though, I think his D is good enough to man SS, and if they decide to go with Craw and Duffy, moving Craw to 3B may be the answer. Although, 3B is a different set of skills from SS. SS is about range and positioning while 3B is about reflexes. I am not sure Craw has that (again, ignorance, not challenge). Of course we also have EA and Arias to add to the mix.

I would certainly rather go with one of these mentioned internal options rather than go after Headley. Headley would cost a decent amount of money (10M aav?), and he has not done jack since his big year a few years back.

I don't want to move Crawford from SS. Despite the complaints I hear about him, I believe he has excellent range and is a good fielder. I've always been one who thought a great arm at SS was more valuable than a great arm at 3B. As you said, 3B is about reflexes. I bet Duffy could handle it. My concern is can he hit well enough to justify him being there regularly? I've seen enough of Arias to believe that he is no more than a decent back up, verstile enough to play 4 positions in a pinch.

PS, please don't be concerned about "challenging" me. I'm hardly an expert and just go mainly on observation.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Agreed. If they were building for a championship in 2014, they did a piss-poor job of it as they almost missed the playoffs altogether.

They're trying to win it all every year.

Which, barring extraordinary circumstances, is the way it should be, esp here. You NEVER know who will be hurt, who will emerge, who gets traded, who gets hot, who gets cold, etc. We have what I'm sure is a relatively high and predictable revenue stream by MLB standards, which makes it easy for the FO to try and put the best team they can out there every year. For them, it's not a matter of "well, if we get Player X and Player Y, then revenue will increase by Z% so therefore we can probably afford them". I would imagine between selling every game out, and what I'm sure is an increasingly lucrative TV revenue stream (TV payers LOVE a winner), they don't have to take many chances regarding payroll.

Finance guys LOVE predictable.

 

[calsnowskier]

I don't want to move Crawford from SS. Despite the complaints I hear about him, I believe he has excellent range and is a good fielder. I've always been one who thought a great arm at SS was more valuable than a great arm at 3B. As you said, 3B is about reflexes. I bet Duffy could handle it. My concern is can he hit well enough to justify him being there regularly? I've seen enough of Arias to believe that he is no more than a decent back up, verstile enough to play 4 positions in a pinch.

PS, please don't be concerned about "challenging" me. I'm hardly an expert and just go mainly on observation.

I wasn't referring to challenging you, I meant I was not stating a lack of confidence in Duffys arm or Craws reflexes. I was stating a lack of confidence in my knowledge about Duffys arm and Craws reflexes.

Does that make sense?

 

[Montalban]

I wasn't referring to challenging you, I meant I was not stating a lack of confidence in Duffys arm or Craws reflexes. I was stating a lack of confidence in my knowledge about Duffys arm and Craws reflexes.

Does that make sense?

Yep. I'm reminded all the time about my lack of knowledge of this game. I consider myself fairly knowledgeable about baseball but just today I saw a headline that said "Kluber wins A.L. Cy Young Award". I thought, WTF?, I've never even heard this guys name before. That might tell you who you are dealing with here. How is it possible that a baseball lover has never heard of the A.L. Cy winner?