2014 Offseason Plans Thread Pt2

[Justinkm83]

Agree I didn't put that much stock in T.R.'s story ... should have said that at the time I posted it. What I found strange for JD to be saying ... the guy's limited and has to earn the job and that a few spares plus ODOR will be in the run for the spot.

If I am Profar I'm thinking ... Crap! Last year I couldn't get on the field because Kinsler and Andrus had the middle tied up ... then they move Kinsler and I am listed as the probable starter ... and then all of a sudden I got to beat off a bunch of guys ... including the guy the scribes have already projected to be the next 2d baseman after me!

Profar might be worried a little, but I'm sure he's full of confidence. He knows what he can do, and it's his job if he shows he's ready to take the next step. I've never been a huge Profar fan, but I hope the kid proves me wrong this year.

 

[WastinSomeTime]

Under the YIKES banner ... story posted today on the TEX website about Profar's shoulder tendinitis ...

Profar to open Spring Training with limits | texasrangers.com: News

"Profar enters camp as the leading candidate to be the Rangers' starting second baseman. But he still has to earn the job. The Rangers have options, including veterans Adam Rosales, Brent Lillibridge and Josh Wilson, and rookies Rougned Odor and Luis Sardinas.

"We have not brought anybody who is guaranteed to be on the club, but we've brought in a number of guys externally and internally," Daniels said, adding that Profar "has to put his head down and show what he can do. Hopefully he can do that, but he has to earn it."

Wow! Maybe Odor ... but Rosales?!! Yikes!

Not sure I like that messaging ... player has tendinitis ... and you are going to scare him that he might lose his job he's never had to a guy you might lose your job to eventually.

I don't really see this being anyone's job other than Profar. Odor is still at least a year away. I think it is just a statement to get guys to really compete at ST.

 

[DT LUNA]

I don't really see this being anyone's job other than Profar. Odor is still at least a year away. I think it is just a statement to get guys to really compete at ST.

I feel sure that's the case.

 

[jta4437]

Calculating contracts for Nelson Cruz, other remaining free agents who received qualifying offers - MLB - ESPN

Interesting article on the impact of draft pick compensation on QO FAs

 

[jta4437]

If you're like me, thoughts of spring seem far away as you shovel a foot of snow from your driveway, wondering if your back or heart will be the first to quit. But for major leaguers, spring is an imminent thing, with all teams having their full complement of players reporting in the next week or so.

That doesn't go for all major leaguers, however, as a large number of players remain unsigned. The most notable among them are the six players on Keith Law's top-rated free agents list who haven't signed yet, with five of them -- Ubaldo Jimenez, Ervin Santana, Stephen Drew, Nelson Cruz and Kendrys Morales -- finding the markets less receptive to their desired salaries than they had hoped, at least partially due to draft picks they will cost the team that signs them as a result of the qualifying offer they received from their former teams.

The market has been so slow for these players that it's fair to ask if teams are being too protective of their draft picks. But upon further inspection, it appears GMs are acting rationally. Allow me to explain.

Whether a team loses a first-, second- or later-round pick, those picks have real value. When looking at the value of draft picks before last year's draft, I developed a model of expected WAR value from each pick. (Remember: We can't just use the average value of each pick, or Albert Pujols would make one think the 402nd pick is valuable, which it is not.)

The No. 20 pick came out with an expected value of 5.6 WAR, the No. 45 pick at 2.9 WAR and the No. 75 pick at around 1.6 WAR. (I'm using these as proxies for the types of picks that would be given up for teams that sign these players.) Even when you take into consideration that the players aren't free, especially toward the end of arbitration, for those three picks I get an estimated surplus value of 4.2 WAR, 2.2 WAR and 1.2 WAR, respectively.

Those WAR figures for a typical draft pick may not be exciting, but in a world where Phil Hughes makes $8 million per season, those numbers are significant. With teams paying roughly $5.45 million in the free-agent market for a win (my current estimate based on existing contracts), the loss of the 20th pick in the draft comes out to $23 million. You might eat that when you're signing a superstar, but it's a painful price to add in for a second- or third-tier free agent. The numbers are less for our theoretical 45th and 75th picks, but $12 million and $7 million, respectively, are still significant chunks of cash.

For each of the "qualifying offer five," I've run down the ZiPS contract projection for each one (in a neutral park/league) along with how they should be priced when you factor in first- or second-round compensation. I gave them a year on the contract for each season they project to exceed 2 WAR, with a minimum of a two-year deal.

Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP
ZiPS projected contract: Four years, $75 million
First-round compensation: Four years, $52 million
Second-round compensation: Four years, $63 million

Jimenez is probably in the best position of the "qualifying offer five," providing enough value that he's worth signing to a contract of a significant length, which makes the loss of draft-pick value manageable. The Blue Jays in particular have two protected first-round picks, and given Jimenez's upside -- he was unstoppable in the second half -- he has a good shot at finding a home (if not in Toronto, then with another second-tier contender).

The Indians remain a good home for Jimenez, but they would want to factor in the price of not getting a compensation sandwich pick, a pick in the mid-30s having around $15 million in surplus value.

Ervin Santana, RHP
ZiPS projected contract: Four years, $50 million
First-round compensation: Four years, $27 million
Second-round compensation: Four years, $38 million

Here we really see the impact of the lost pick. There's absolutely no way Santana would sign for $27 million over four years, but that's essentially what it would take to make the loss of a typical first-round pick a fair trade. Even the 30th pick in the draft has a $17 million expected value, so that essentially cuts off two-thirds of teams except for the ones that are feeling a bit of desperation.

Complicating matters is that some of the teams still looking for pitching (Baltimore, Toronto) play in homer-friendly parks that aren't great fits for the gopher-ball-friendly Santana.

Stephen Drew, SS
ZiPS projected contract: Two years, $20 million
First-round compensation: Two years, $-3 million
Second-round compensation: Two years, $8 million

Considering Drew is already in his 30s and has a significant injury history, it's hard to justify a long-term deal, and the draft-pick compensation doesn't change if you sign a one-year contract rather than a five-year deal. It's quite logical that the Mets -- who have a protected first-rounder and gave up their second-rounder for Curtis Granderson -- would be one of the teams most interested in Drew, as the third-round compensation drops his value to two years, $13 million.

While the Mets may be willing to exceed that number, Drew's reported desire for an opt-out clause after one year makes it a bad idea. Limiting the upside the Mets can get from a Drew contract just makes Ruben Tejada more appealing.

Kendrys Morales, 1B
ZiPS projected contract: Two years, $24 million
First-round compensation: Two years, $1 million
Second-round compensation: Two years, $12 million

Nelson Cruz, OF
ZiPS projected contract: Two years, $18 million
First-round compensation: Two years, $-5 million
Second-round compensation: Two years, $6 million

Morales and Cruz are in the same boat since they both have a similar problem, in that there's almost no scenario in which losing a first-round pick becomes a good idea. Morales stayed healthy in 2013 and was quite solid for the Mariners, but he's also on the wrong side of 30 and provides little defensive value. A team that desperately needs offense and owns a protected first-rounder may sign Morales, but his market is limited.

Cruz is even older than Morales, more one-dimensional and is coming off a PED suspension, none of which will help him on the open market. If there ever truly was a five-year, $75 million offer on the table from a team, Cruz turning it down was a mistake of epic proportions, similar to that of Jody Reed (who once turned down three years, $7.8 million and ended up getting one year, $350,000) or Juan Gonzalez (who turned down eight years, $140 million before 2000; made $39 million in remaining five years of his career). Like Drew, Cruz is actually worth negative dollars when you factor in a first-round pick.

The Mariners remain the best fit for Cruz (and he has been linked to Seattle all winter) as a team that really wants to spend money and always thinks it's just a mediocre DH away from a 90-win season.

 

[Justinkm83]

A game in July that Tanaka pitched in is being televised on a FS channel if anyone's interested. He doesn't look to be worth what they paid for him.

 

[romeo212000]

A game in July that Tanaka pitched in is being televised on a FS channel if anyone's interested. He doesn't look to be worth what they paid for him.

I've said that from the start.

 

[Windingmywatch]

Calculating contracts for Nelson Cruz, other remaining free agents who received qualifying offers - MLB - ESPN

Interesting article on the impact of draft pick compensation on QO FAs

JTA ... thanks very much for posting that. Well worth the read. Very insightful.

Does anyone remember the date on which teams that sign a QO-offered player no longer have to give up a draft choice? May 15th?

 

[PAINTERMAN]

JTA ... thanks very much for posting that. Well worth the read. Very insightful.

Does anyone remember the date on which teams that sign a QO-offered player no longer have to give up a draft choice? May 15th?

I'm pretty sure they can't be signed until completion of the June draft. Anytime a team signs a player prior to they lose the draft pick. That is why it has been rumored that Morales may not be signed until after the draft. Looks like there might be others as well.

 

[Bmurph]

I've said that from the start.

I read something where the Yankees said they viewed him a solid #3, not sure if they meant he would be their 3 behind Sabathia and Kuroda or if they viewed him as a #3 in most teams rotations? Either way thats too much bread unless the dude is at least a #2 borderline #1, even on the Yankees scale

 

[Bmurph]

I'm pretty sure they can't be signed until completion of the June draft. Anytime a team signs a player prior to they lose the draft pick. That is why it has been rumored that Morales may not be signed until after the draft. Looks like there might be others as well.

Yeah think you're right any team that signs a player prior to the June 5th draft has to give up the draft compensation

 

[Windingmywatch]

Yeah think you're right any team that signs a player prior to the June 5th draft has to give up the draft compensation

Then on June 6th ... who do you throw the lifeline to if they are still without a ride? Cruz or Morales?

 

[WastinSomeTime]

Then on June 6th ... who do you throw the lifeline to if they are still without a ride? Cruz or Morales?

That would be dependent on how we are doing in all areas as a team which would then determine if and where we have a need.

 

[RevSader]

That would be dependent on how we are doing in all areas as a team which would then determine if and where we have a need.

June 6th will be D-Day for them as well it sounds like.

 

[Xx srs bsns xX]

Under the YIKES banner ... story posted today on the TEX website about Profar's shoulder tendinitis ...

Profar to open Spring Training with limits | texasrangers.com: News

"Profar enters camp as the leading candidate to be the Rangers' starting second baseman. But he still has to earn the job. The Rangers have options, including veterans Adam Rosales, Brent Lillibridge and Josh Wilson, and rookies Rougned Odor and Luis Sardinas.

"We have not brought anybody who is guaranteed to be on the club, but we've brought in a number of guys externally and internally," Daniels said, adding that Profar "has to put his head down and show what he can do. Hopefully he can do that, but he has to earn it."

Wow! Maybe Odor ... but Rosales?!! Yikes!

Not sure I like that messaging ... player has tendinitis ... and you are going to scare him that he might lose his job he's never had to a guy you might lose your job to eventually.

I think this is a wise move - make the kids earn it.
That said, COULD YOU IMAGINE the uproar if Odor won the starting spot and Profar got sent back to AAA???

 

[Xx srs bsns xX]

Orioles agree to sign Yoon. Pending physical of course...

Orioles To Sign Suk-Min Yoon: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

 

[romeo212000]

Then on June 6th ... who do you throw the lifeline to if they are still without a ride? Cruz or Morales?

Easy answer. Morales.

 

[romeo212000]

I read something where the Yankees said they viewed him a solid #3, not sure if they meant he would be their 3 behind Sabathia and Kuroda or if they viewed him as a #3 in most teams rotations? Either way thats too much bread unless the dude is at least a #2 borderline #1, even on the Yankees scale

That's too much unless he's a #1. Period.

 

[Justinkm83]

Easy answer. Morales.

I agree. If I was Seattle I would have already signed Morales back.

 

[PDay8810]

I'm sure this has been discussed but I'm pumped after watching Fielder's offseason work out and interview. He sure seems to be focused on being in the very best shape possible.