2013 payroll

[tzill]

Since I'm in full rosterbation mode, here's how 2013 looks:




Zito 20
Lopez 4.5
Huff 2 (buyout)
TOTAL: 26.5 committed.

Estimates --
Beltran 15
Timmy 20
Cain 18
Wilson 12
RamRam 3
Casilla 3
Fonty 3
Song 7
Buster 4
Panda 5
Bum 3
Romo 2
Nate 3
Belt 1
Gillaspie 0.5
Crawford 0.5
Edlefsen 0.5
Brown 0.5
Panik 0.5
Peggy 0.5
Pill 1
Chez3 0.5
Surkamp 0.5
TOTAL: 104

Team Payroll approx 130MM
Peguero CF
Panik 2B
Buster C
Beltran LF
Panda 3B
Belt 1B
Nate RF
Crawford SS

SP: Tim, Cain, Bum, Song, Surkamp
RP: Wilson, Romo, RamRam, Lopez, Casilla, Edlefsen, Zito
Bench: Chez3, Pill, Fonty, Gillaspie, Brown

Thoughts?

 

[Heathbar012]

Looks like there is some good wiggle room there. Heathbar likey.

 

[msgkings322]

Since I'm in full rosterbation mode, here's how 2013 looks:




Zito 20
Lopez 4.5
Huff 2 (buyout)
TOTAL: 26.5 committed.

Estimates --
Beltran 15
Timmy 20
Cain 18
Wilson 12
RamRam 3
Casilla 3
Fonty 3
Song 7
Buster 4
Panda 5
Bum 3
Romo 2
Nate 3
Belt 1
Gillaspie 0.5
Crawford 0.5
Edlefsen 0.5
Brown 0.5
Panik 0.5
Peggy 0.5
Pill 1
Chez3 0.5
Surkamp 0.5
TOTAL: 104

Team Payroll approx 130MM
Peguero CF
Panik 2B
Buster C
Beltran LF
Panda 3B
Belt 1B
Nate RF
Crawford SS

SP: Tim, Cain, Bum, Song, Surkamp
RP: Wilson, Romo, RamRam, Lopez, Casilla, Edlefsen, Zito
Bench: Chez3, Pill, Fonty, Gillaspie, Brown

Thoughts?

Plausible but way too far off to really predict, kind of like forecasting the stock market in 2013.

Guys will get traded, hurt, not pan out, etc. FAs not even on our radar might get signed. Etc.

 

[CameronFrye]

Since I'm in full rosterbation mode, here's how 2013 looks:




Zito 20
Lopez 4.5
Huff 2 (buyout)
TOTAL: 26.5 committed.

Estimates --
Beltran 15
Timmy 20
Cain 18
Wilson 12
RamRam 3
Casilla 3
Fonty 3
Song 7
Buster 4
Panda 5
Bum 3
Romo 2
Nate 3
Belt 1
Gillaspie 0.5
Crawford 0.5
Edlefsen 0.5
Brown 0.5
Panik 0.5
Peggy 0.5
Pill 1
Chez3 0.5
Surkamp 0.5
TOTAL: 104

Team Payroll approx 130MM
Peguero CF
Panik 2B
Buster C
Beltran LF
Panda 3B
Belt 1B
Nate RF
Crawford SS

SP: Tim, Cain, Bum, Song, Surkamp
RP: Wilson, Romo, RamRam, Lopez, Casilla, Edlefsen, Zito
Bench: Chez3, Pill, Fonty, Gillaspie, Brown

Thoughts?

I think you are overpaying Cain to a huge degree. He's one of the better pitchers in the league but he's not in the realm of the top pitchers in the league. Besides, by the end of the 2012 season, he's not even going to be the second best pitcher on the Giants' roster. Bumgarner will be.

I'd give him $14 mil annually, but that is the upper limit.

One more thing - There's not a closer in the game today who is worth $12 mil per. If that's what Wilson wants, he can go find it in Boston or in New York after Rivera finally retires. But putting 10% of a team's payroll into a closer is just a stupid thing to do.

 

[msgkings322]

I think you are overpaying Cain to a huge degree. He's one of the better pitchers in the league but he's not in the realm of the top pitchers in the league. Besides, by the end of the 2012 season, he's not even going to be the second best pitcher on the Giants' roster. Bumgarner will be.

I'd give him $14 mil annually, but that is the upper limit.

One more thing - There's not a closer in the game today who is worth $12 mil per. If that's what Wilson wants, he can go find it in Boston or in New York after Rivera finally retires. But putting 10% of a team's payroll into a closer is just a stupid thing to do.

I agree in spirit on Cain but I'd go to 16.

And totally agree on Wilson. I lean towards keeping him, not trading him and installing Casilla, but not for 12 per.

 

[tzill]

I think you are overpaying Cain to a huge degree. He's one of the better pitchers in the league but he's not in the realm of the top pitchers in the league. Besides, by the end of the 2012 season, he's not even going to be the second best pitcher on the Giants' roster. Bumgarner will be.

I'd give him $14 mil annually, but that is the upper limit.

One more thing - There's not a closer in the game today who is worth $12 mil per. If that's what Wilson wants, he can go find it in Boston or in New York after Rivera finally retires. But putting 10% of a team's payroll into a closer is just a stupid thing to do.

FYI -- Cain makes $15.3 next year, so your "upper limit" has already been shattered.

Re: Wilson -- He gets 8.5 in Arb3 next year, and he's got Arb4 coming up in 2013. He's got to get at least $10, no?

I might have over estimated Wilson by 1-2MM but I think Matty is dead on at $18, if he continues to be an all-star.

 

[msgkings322]

FYI -- Cain makes $15.3 next year, so your "upper limit" has already been shattered.

Re: Wilson -- He gets 8.5 in Arb3 next year, and he's got Arb4 coming up in 2013. He's got to get at least $10, no?

I might have over estimated Wilson by 1-2MM but I think Matty is dead on at $18, if he continues to be an all-star.

I hope he has a good enough year to get 10 in arb. But what if 2010 was his best year?

 

[SFGRTB]

I think you are overpaying Cain to a huge degree. He's one of the better pitchers in the league but he's not in the realm of the top pitchers in the league. Besides, by the end of the 2012 season, he's not even going to be the second best pitcher on the Giants' roster. Bumgarner will be.

I'd give him $14 mil annually, but that is the upper limit.

One more thing - There's not a closer in the game today who is worth $12 mil per. If that's what Wilson wants, he can go find it in Boston or in New York after Rivera finally retires. But putting 10% of a team's payroll into a closer is just a stupid thing to do.

I beg to differ on Cain, he is the realm of the starting pitchers in the league. Since 2007, only 3 guys have had and ERA+ of 118 or higher with at least 200 IP: CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay and Matt Cain. He's 12th in WAR since 2006 (first full year). He's decreased his BB/9, HR/9 and HR/FB and increased his K/9, GB rates and WAR every year since 2009. I really think he is undervalued by the entire league.

He should command as much money as Lincecum will, but I think he'll get closer to 18 mill or so.

 

[SFGRTB]

Brown will be ready before Panik, possibly Sanchez can be resigned under the condition that he will be replaced at some point.

 

[CameronFrye]

FYI -- Cain makes $15.3 next year, so your "upper limit" has already been shattered.

Re: Wilson -- He gets 8.5 in Arb3 next year, and he's got Arb4 coming up in 2013. He's got to get at least $10, no?

I might have over estimated Wilson by 1-2MM but I think Matty is dead on at $18, if he continues to be an all-star.

Well, maybe my word choice was not the best, but Cain's contract was 3 years and $27.25 mil, meaning he averaged just over $9 mil per. I would not give him a contract that started at $18 mil, because it will go up from there and he's just not worth a contract that starts at that salary. If his contract was a multi-year deal that started at around $12 mil and escalated up to $18 mil in the final year, I might be able to understand it. But past that, I could not abide.

On a general note about my philosophy:

Looking at the average salaries for the top pitchers in the game, apparently I am not in alignment with most GMs and upper management people these days because more and more, the top paid players in the game are pitchers (Sabbathia, Halladay, Cliff Lee, Jered Weaver). I think it's crazy to pay guys that much money when they affect the team's outcome once every 5 days. If Ryan Braun, arguably the best young hitter in the game right now (Poo-holes is old and is not going to improve. THAT is what I mean by best young hitter), is averaging $21 mil per on his contract, there is no logical reason why any starting pitcher - who can affect his team's record once every 5 days - should be getting more or even close to the same amount as that.

The best hurlers in the game (Verlander, Halladay, Lincecum, Kershaw) should be getting in the neighborhood of $15-$16 mil per and guys like Cain should be a step below that at about $12 - $14 mil per. It is just crazy that a starting pitcher gets as much money as a hitter.

 

[CameronFrye]

The problem with baseball is that there is no salary cap and all contracts are not equal. The Spankees can afford to give Sabbathia $25 mil per because they are made of money. Invariably, Lincecum will get a contract that is close to what Sabbathia makes, even though Timmeh's deal will cost the Giants more than what the Spanks are throwing at CC.

Sabbathia's deal is not even 10% of the team's total payroll. The Giants, with a payroll around $125 million, are going to end up paying Timmeh around $20 mil. That is 16 percent of the team's payroll. Add in Zito's $20 mil and you're at 32% of team payroll for 2 pitchers. Add in Cain's $15 mil and you're at almost 40% for 3 pitchers.

I know that's reality, but it sucks.

 

[tzill]

Well, maybe my word choice was not the best, but Cain's contract was 3 years and $27.25 mil, meaning he averaged just over $9 mil per. I would not give him a contract that started at $18 mil, because it will go up from there and he's just not worth a contract that starts at that salary. If his contract was a multi-year deal that started at around $12 mil and escalated up to $18 mil in the final year, I might be able to understand it. But past that, I could not abide.

On a general note about my philosophy:

Looking at the average salaries for the top pitchers in the game, apparently I am not in alignment with most GMs and upper management people these days because more and more, the top paid players in the game are pitchers (Sabbathia, Halladay, Cliff Lee, Jered Weaver). I think it's crazy to pay guys that much money when they affect the team's outcome once every 5 days. If Ryan Braun, arguably the best young hitter in the game right now (Poo-holes is old and is not going to improve. THAT is what I mean by best young hitter), is averaging $21 mil per on his contract, there is no logical reason why any starting pitcher - who can affect his team's record once every 5 days - should be getting more or even close to the same amount as that.

The best hurlers in the game (Verlander, Halladay, Lincecum, Kershaw) should be getting in the neighborhood of $15-$16 mil per and guys like Cain should be a step below that at about $12 - $14 mil per. It is just crazy that a starting pitcher gets as much money as a hitter.

Cam, cam, cam. He's not going to take a contract that starts at $12...he makes $15.3 next year and he's been nothing but excellenty all-star goodness. He's going to get a raise and likely something like 3/54. You can't really base his future earnings off his last contract as he's no longer arb controlled. There is NO WAY he signs a 12/15/18 contract. More like 16/18/20.

Re: your anti-pitcher salary rant -- you're tilting at windmills, bro. The market is the market.

 

[Heathbar012]

Cam, cam, cam. He's not going to take a contract that starts at $12...he makes $15.3 next year and he's been nothing but excellenty all-star goodness. He's going to get a raise and likely something like 3/54. You can't really base his future earnings off his last contract as he's no longer arb controlled. There is NO WAY he signs a 12/15/18 contract. More like 16/18/20.

Re: your anti-pitcher salary rant -- you're tilting at windmills, bro. The market is the market.

+1, but might I add, Cam, you're also very correct. Everyday, the world seems like it could be a much better place if we could just shake everyone that needs to hear our one rant (I only allow myself a max of one per day). Take the advice or not, GMs, but listen and analyze.

 

[filosofy29]

+1, but might I add, Cam, you're also very correct. Everyday, the world seems like it could be a much better place if we could just shake everyone that needs to hear our one rant (I only allow myself a max of one per day). Take the advice or not, GMs, but listen and analyze.

Fair enough and I'm on the fence with the pitcher/everyday player debate. True the pitcher only has a direct effect on 1 of every 5 games, but that effect is usually on at least 20 or so batters. They impact that game to a LARGE degree. Usually hitters only get around 4 at bats to prove their worth (and if they're great, a lot of times they get intentionally walked.....which still has an impact, but not as great of one) and maybe 3-5 plays per game on the defensive side (besides a catcher who calls a game or 1st basemen). I mean, a RF'er who only catches two balls in the OF and goes 1-4 with a single and run.....does he really have the same effect on the game (even if he does that 5 times) that a SP would? Can you even aggregate that (I'm really asking, I don't know)? I still think it's probably more important to have an all-star everyday player over an all-star pitcher, but I think some of us underappreciate just how much a SP does (even if only every 5 days).

 

[tzill]

Fair enough and I'm on the fence with the pitcher/everyday player debate. True the pitcher only has a direct effect on 1 of every 5 games, but that effect is usually on at least 20 or so batters. They impact that game to a LARGE degree. Usually hitters only get around 4 at bats to prove their worth (and if they're great, a lot of times they get intentionally walked.....which still has an impact, but not as great of one) and maybe 3-5 plays per game on the defensive side (besides a catcher who calls a game or 1st basemen). I mean, a RF'er who only catches two balls in the OF and goes 1-4 with a single and run.....does he really have the same effect on the game (even if he does that 5 times) that a SP would? Can you even aggregate that (I'm really asking, I don't know)? I still think it's probably more important to have an all-star everyday player over an all-star pitcher, but I think some of us underappreciate just how much a SP does (even if only every 5 days).

WAR does a pretty good job of capturing this, IMO.

 

[Heathbar012]

Fair enough and I'm on the fence with the pitcher/everyday player debate. True the pitcher only has a direct effect on 1 of every 5 games, but that effect is usually on at least 20 or so batters. They impact that game to a LARGE degree. Usually hitters only get around 4 at bats to prove their worth (and if they're great, a lot of times they get intentionally walked.....which still has an impact, but not as great of one) and maybe 3-5 plays per game on the defensive side (besides a catcher who calls a game or 1st basemen). I mean, a RF'er who only catches two balls in the OF and goes 1-4 with a single and run.....does he really have the same effect on the game (even if he does that 5 times) that a SP would? Can you even aggregate that (I'm really asking, I don't know)? I still think it's probably more important to have an all-star everyday player over an all-star pitcher, but I think some of us underappreciate just how much a SP does (even if only every 5 days).

Good point, filo. Plus, most good pitchers practically work harder on their off-days than the days they are scheduled on the hill. Any room on that fence?