2013 Numbers (Looking ahead to 2014...)

[averagejoe]

I pulled the data from various sites and started running my usual numbers.

Usage Numbers & Yards-Per
This is basically a calculation of pass attempts + rush attempts + targets and then this total is divided by the total number of plays a team runs. Then I divide this by each players' games (or Usage Per Game; UPG).

Some surprises were Bobby Rainey leading the list. He was used on 30% of TB's plays in the games he played. More than any other RB. Another surprise was Doug Martin was 2nd, 27%. Too bad Tampa's coaching is about to change. Another surprise was Andre Brown who ranked 5th, 22%.

Backs always score the highest.

Gronk was the highest TE. Graham was 2nd. Third was Cameron.

Wideouts. Blackmon had the highest usage with 13%. He also had the 3rd-highest yards per game (YPG). What a shame. Julio Jones had the 2nd-highest UPG and YPG. Josh Gordon blew everyone away with the highest YPG. But he too will now undergo a coaching change.

One surprise was Cecil Shorts. He had very respectable usage numbers (10%) but had less yardage than other WR in the 10% range. Another was Vincent Jackson who had 11% usage, but had about 200 less yards than other 11% WR.

Still factoring other....

 

[The Foot]

Joe great job as always on these stats, I am still scratching my head at how one would figure this stuff out. But I need a favor on another subject. You being an IDPer like myself but for much longer, I would love, love, love to get your most in depth opinion of Jadeveon Clowney.

My question is: Is he the real deal in your opinion.? Is he the next Peyton Manning at his position or will he be just a good player? Was he holding back this year as to not get hurt? Any of your analysis on the subject would be immensely appreciated!

 

[averagejoe]

To be honest, Foot, I don't really follow college ball. Fortunately fantasy history has shown that the majority of rookies do not live up to their expectations.

So how do I rank rookies? Well, like gauging/ranking any other fantasy player, you consider the team they're going to, the team need, and their NFL draft selection. (And perhaps even preseason play/evidence.) Based on these criteria, you can see how RB like Bell and Lacy had successful rookie seasons.

So you have to look at IDP - Clowney - the same way.

Just as Lacy and Bell were not first round fantasy picks (Lacy was a late 2nd round pick, and Bell was a late 3rd/early 4th rounder), you have to adjust your enthusiasm for Clowney in much the same way. Which means that veteran "proven" DL might be drafted before him.

Is he the real deal? Only time will tell. I'm sure his hype and a high NFL draft selection will make him seem like a "can't miss" guy.

Hope that answers it.

 

[averagejoe]

I'm probably talking to myself in this thread, but here are the top-10 Usage-Per-Game leaders from 2013:

RB
30% - Bobby Rainey
27% - Doug Martin
24% - Charles & Forte
23% - Bell, McCoy & AP
22% - Lynch, Andre Brown & Murray

TE
9% - Gronk & Graham
8% - Pitta, Daniels, Gonzo, Cameron & Witten
7% - Clay, Olsen & Gates

WR
13% - Blackmon
12% - Julio Jones
11% - Gordon, A. Brown, Garcon, Bryant, A. Johnson, V. Jackson, Jeffery & Green

 

[Sam Sportboy]

I'm probably talking to myself in this thread, but here are the top-10 Usage-Per-Game leaders from 2013:

RB
30% - Bobby Rainey
27% - Doug Martin
24% - Charles & Forte
23% - Bell, McCoy & AP
22% - Lynch, Andre Brown & Murray

TE
9% - Gronk & Graham
8% - Pitta, Daniels, Gonzo, Cameron & Witten
7% - Clay, Olsen & Gates

WR
13% - Blackmon
12% - Julio Jones
11% - Gordon, A. Brown, Garcon, Bryant, A. Johnson, V. Jackson, Jeffery & Green

I've been reading your posts just haven't put enough thoughts together for next year but it is coming. I'm kinda curious how some of these HC hirings are going to pan out as far as fantasy goes. Especially interested in the Houston/TB jobs as my freaking keepers are Foster (who I am high on this year, again) and Martin (who I was high on but if he isn't going to be the bell cow then I think he takes a major hit). Either way, nice info Joe!

 

[averagejoe]

...and here are the top-10 Yardage-Per-Game leaders:

RB
134.1 - McCoy
132.0 - Charles
120.8 - Forte
108.0 - R. Bush
105.3 - Murray
102.6 - AP
99.1 - Rainey
98.3 - Moreno
96.8 - Lynch
95.7 - Bell

TE
84.6 - Gronk
75.9 - Graham
61.1 - Cameron
57.4 - Reed
56.7 - Davis
56.3 - Thomas
54.5 - Gates
53.7 - Gonzo
53.2 - Witten
51.0 - Olsen

WR
123.9 - Gordon
117.4 - J. Jones
103.5 - Blackmon
95.4 - Jeffery
94.9 - A. Brown
93.3 - Megatron
89.4 - D. Thomas
89.1 - Green
87.9 - Andre Johnson
85.3 - Garcon

 

[averagejoe]

Especially interested in the Houston/TB jobs as my freaking keepers are Foster (who I am high on this year, again) and Martin (who I was high on but if he isn't going to be the bell cow then I think he takes a major hit).

I agree, Sam. The situation in TB is an interesting one to watch. Based on the usage numbers, it looked like the old coaching staff leaned heavily on the RB, whether it was Rainey or Martin.

When Lovie was in Chicago, I got the impression that the offense was secondary since he was a defensive-minded coach. At press conferences about up-coming games, his catch-phrase always seemed to be "we're gonna come off the bus running." Good theory, but that didn't always happen with a poor O-line.

My guess with Lovie, is that he gives the new OC in Tampa a decent amount of leeway to run the offense. He did with Shea, Turner, Martz and Tice.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

...and here are the top-10 Yardage-Per-Game leaders:

RB
134.1 - McCoy
132.0 - Charles
120.8 - Forte
108.0 - R. Bush
105.3 - Murray
102.6 - AP
99.1 - Rainey
98.3 - Moreno
96.8 - Lynch
95.7 - Bell

TE
84.6 - Gronk
75.9 - Graham
61.1 - Cameron
57.4 - Reed
56.7 - Davis
56.3 - Thomas
54.5 - Gates
53.7 - Gonzo
53.2 - Witten
51.0 - Olsen

WR
123.9 - Gordon
117.4 - J. Jones
103.5 - Blackmon
95.4 - Jeffery
94.9 - A. Brown
93.3 - Megatron
89.4 - D. Thomas
89.1 - Green
87.9 - Andre Johnson
85.3 - Garcon

Bush- Suprising to see him so high on this list. Goes to show you he isn't just a PPR stud (I passed on him in all leagues)
Murray- Got him cheap in one league and was happy. IMO he will be a top 5 back next year until/unless he gets hurt.
Rainey- Not sure how the TB situation pans out but if Lovie takes a liking to this kid could mean the end for Martin. Of course, it could end up the other way around.
Moreno- Insert Ball here or will Moreno keep his job?
Thomas- Was lucky enough to get this guy at the end of my money league draft. Suprised he was able to do as well as he did with all of the mouths Peyton had to feed. Don't think it will happen again. Let somebody else pay the high price for him next year.
Blackmon- This is the guy (depending on ADP and whether or not he can stop rockin the gonge) that I will be targeting in every draft along with Patterson. IMO they will probably be cheap enough to draft RB's ahead of them and one of them is likely to go off for you weekly.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

.

My guess with Lovie, is that he gives the new OC in Tampa a decent amount of leeway to run the offense. He did with Shea, Turner, Martz and Tice.

Good god that was a trainwreck...............Martz wasn't much better.

 

[averagejoe]

Good god that was a trainwreck...............Martz wasn't much better.

They all were disastrous.

• Lovie was probably hoping that Shea would bring some of the KC firepower with him. Unfortunately, Priest Holmes and Trent Green weren't coming with Shea.
• Ron Turner had some success with the Bears prior to Lovie's tenure. But he was unimaginative. He once said (and I wish I was making it up), that if we run the same play 10 times, the defense can't stop it all 10 times.
• Martz was just as stubborn. But like Shea, he didn't have Warner, Faulk and Holt to work with.
• Tice. Culpepper and Moss were long gone. 'Nuff said.

So like I said, the new OC for Tampa should get plenty of leeway from Lovie.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

They all were disastrous.

• Lovie was probably hoping that Shea would bring some of the KC firepower with him. Unfortunately, Priest Holmes and Trent Green weren't coming with Shea.
• Ron Turner had some success with the Bears prior to Lovie's tenure. But he was unimaginative. He once said (and I wish I was making it up), that if we run the same play 10 times, the defense can't stop it all 10 times.
• Martz was just as stubborn. But like Shea, he didn't have Warner, Faulk and Holt to work with.
• Tice. 'Nuff said.

So like I said, the new OC for Tampa should get plenty of leeway from Lovie.

That was awesome. Hell, if you run it 15 times maybe it will work twice.

 

[averagejoe]

Ran some more numbers... this time 3-year TD average. The QB were pretty predictable. And maybe even the RB were somewhat "expected" as well (13.0 - Lynch; 12.3 - AP; 12.0 - McCoy). But the WR had a few surprises IMO:

11.3 - Dez
11.0 - Decker & Megatron
10.0 - Jordy Nelson
9.7 - Green & Marshall
9.3 - Demaryius
8.3 - Welker
8.0 - VJax
7.7 - Cruz & Colston

 

[TREFF]

Decker is a shocker to me, as is Colston. Colston just nectar he consistently tosses up a zero anytime I ever start him so I've thrown in the towel on him.

But really didn't recall Decker being THAT good three years ago.

 

[averagejoe]

But really didn't recall Decker being THAT good three years ago.

Decker was a shocker to me too. But in the last 3 seasons, he's cause 11, 13 and 9 TD. Fairly high TD numbers.

Some of the other "surprises" was no Fitz, and no Andre in the top 11 players I listed. (Although Fitz barely missed.)

 

[TREFF]

Really? Fitz being close at all somewhat surprises me. Not that he isn't that damned good, he is, but man is been brutal in AZ since Kurt left

 

[averagejoe]

Really? Fitz being close at all somewhat surprises me. Not that he isn't that damned good, he is, but man is been brutal in AZ since Kurt left

Actually, he was next. His 3-year TD average was 7.3.