2012 NBA Prospect Comparables

[rtiff68]

While I know there is already a 2012 prospect thread, this exercise is a little more specific (as opposed to just general prospect discussion), so I decided to start up a new one. One way I like to evaluate the draft every year is to create comparables for every prospect (current or former NBA players; best case/worst case/most likely, etc.). Feel free to criticize/comment on mine, or add some of your own.

Anthony Davis
Best Case: a prime Marcus Camby with a jump shot (with range), a handle, and a baby hook-- which, in my mind, would make him a bigger Kevin Garnett.

Worst Case: I don't see much downside here. A more active, weaker/lankier Josh Smith that makes better decisions?

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Best Case: a 6'8 Russell Westbrook who doesn't shoot too many perimeter jumpers.

Worst Case: Thabo Sefolosha with a better handle and the ability to finish at the rim in transition (defensive stopper on perimeter that scores 10ppg).

Most Likely: a smaller, quicker Gerald Wallace (whose impact ends up being pretty similar, overall).

Andre Drummond
Best Case: Andrew Bynum? There aren't many guys with that combination of size, athleticism, and soft hands at that age (doubt he ever gets here, for the record).

Most Likely: DeAndre Jordan-- a big body who fouls too much, but clogs the lane, alters shots, and averages in the neighborhood of 8pts/8rebs.

Harrison Barnes
Best Case: Danny Granger-- adequate defender who shoots a lot of jump-shots. Best served as a number 2 on a contender, could be the best player on a .500ish squad.

Most Likely: The obvious comparison (because of his alma-mater) is Marvin Williams with a better mid-range jump shot. I don't mind that, but I will go with a taller version of OJ Mayo. Knocks down the mid range J very well, but doesn't assert himself on the court in any other way and disappears for long stretches.

Tyler Zeller
Most Likely: Jason Smith-- he is most famous for unleashing his inner Patrick Willis on Blake Griffen.

Worst Case: a quicker Brian Zoubek (his career has really taken off, hasn't it?).

Thomas Robinson
Best Case: a more athletic Paul Millsap.

Worst Case: a leaner Brandon Bass with better hands.

Jared Sullinger
Best Case: Al Jefferson, but less of a head case.

Worst Case: a weaker Dajuan Blair with better footwork. Unfortunately, the only reason Blair has had any success in the NBA has been his lower body strength. I see the "worst case" or some approximation of it as the far more likely scenario here.

John Henson
Most Likely: Maybe I can't see past the uniform, but this guy looks like an absolute Ed Davis clone to me (slightly on the weaker side, as well).

Tony Wroten
Best Case: a smaller, healthier Tyreke Evans with better decision making.

Worst Case: a 6'5 inch version of Khalid El Amin. Powerful, but can't break people down and can't shoot. This one is a randon throwback, but for some reason it popped into my head.

That's just a few to get things started...

 

[CitySushi]

Repped for Khalid El Amin reference. Nice work. I'll post my thought comparisons later.

 

[EKmane]

While I know there is already a 2012 prospect thread, this exercise is a little more specific (as opposed to just general prospect discussion), so I decided to start up a new one. One way I like to evaluate the draft every year is to create comparables for every prospect (current or former NBA players; best case/worst case/most likely, etc.). Feel free to criticize/comment on mine, or add some of your own.

Anthony Davis
Best Case: a prime Marcus Camby with a jump shot (with range), a handle, and a baby hook-- which, in my mind, would make him a bigger Kevin Garnett.

Worst Case: I don't see much downside here. A more active, weaker/lankier Josh Smith that makes better decisions?

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Best Case: a 6'8 Russell Westbrook who doesn't shoot too many perimeter jumpers.

Worst Case: Thabo Sefolosha with a better handle and the ability to finish at the rim in transition (defensive stopper on perimeter that scores 10ppg).

Most Likely: a smaller, quicker Gerald Wallace (whose impact ends up being pretty similar, overall).

Andre Drummond
Best Case: Andrew Bynum? There aren't many guys with that combination of size, athleticism, and soft hands at that age (doubt he ever gets here, for the record).

Most Likely: DeAndre Jordan-- a big body who fouls too much, but clogs the lane, alters shots, and averages in the neighborhood of 8pts/8rebs.

Harrison Barnes
Best Case: Danny Granger-- adequate defender who shoots a lot of jump-shots. Best served as a number 2 on a contender, could be the best player on a .500ish squad.

Most Likely: The obvious comparison (because of his alma-mater) is Marvin Williams with a better mid-range jump shot. I don't mind that, but I will go with a taller version of OJ Mayo. Knocks down the mid range J very well, but doesn't assert himself on the court in any other way and disappears for long stretches.

Tyler Zeller
Most Likely: Jason Smith-- he is most famous for unleashing his inner Patrick Willis on Blake Griffen.

Worst Case: a quicker Brian Zoubek (his career has really taken off, hasn't it?).

Thomas Robinson
Best Case: a more athletic Paul Millsap.

Worst Case: a leaner Brandon Bass with better hands.

Jared Sullinger
Best Case: Al Jefferson, but less of a head case.

Worst Case: a weaker Dajuan Blair with better footwork. Unfortunately, the only reason Blair has had any success in the NBA has been his lower body strength. I see the "worst case" or some approximation of it as the far more likely scenario here.

John Henson
Most Likely: Maybe I can't see past the uniform, but this guy looks like an absolute Ed Davis clone to me (slightly on the weaker side, as well).

Tony Wroten
Best Case: a smaller, healthier Tyreke Evans with better decision making.

Worst Case: a 6'5 inch version of Khalid El Amin. Powerful, but can't break people down and can't shoot. This one is a randon throwback, but for some reason it popped into my head.

That's just a few to get things started...

Rtiff, wassup ,friend! Glad to see you migrating over here with your usual great input.

 

[uncfan103]

I hope you guys don't mind me talking about prospects over here.
My thoughts:
Barnes is hard to compare to anyone, but i'll say worst case = Rashad McCants or Sebastian Telfair

Henson i think is very comparable to Brandan Wright.

I like the Kidd-Gilchrist and Gerald Wallace comparison.

 

[CameronFrye]

I hope you guys don't mind me talking about prospects over here.
My thoughts:
Barnes is hard to compare to anyone, but i'll say worst case = Rashad McCants or Sebastian Telfair

Henson i think is very comparable to Brandan Wright.

I like the Kidd-Gilchrist and Gerald Wallace comparison.

Please feel free to post any time. Your input is welcome.

You say the worst-case comparison for Barnes is McCants or Telfair. Do you envision a best-case comparison or are you so down on Barnes that you don't think he'll succeed (read: star) in the NBA?

Comparing anyone to Brandan Wright to Warriors fans is like telling us that you think he will most definitely fail in the NBA.

 

[rtiff68]

Rtiff, wassup ,friend! Glad to see you migrating over here with your usual great input.

Hey EK! Good to see you as well.

I was reading through your prospect thread, and I noticed that you are pretty high on Moe Harkless. While I have not watched him at all, everything that I have read sounds intriguing. In general, I have found that sticking to the following 2 rules when evaluating prospects usually ends up paying off:

1) Does the prospect in question have the physical tools (size, speed, athleticism) to succeed at the next level, or will he rely solely on skill? The number of successful NBA players who do not possess otherworldly physical tools is a short one-- since the draft is ultimately a gamble, I find that it's generally better to bet against someone being the next Nash, etc.

2) How old is the prospect in question, and did said prospect not dominate the college game until they were older (a man amongst boys, so to speak)?

Harkless obvious passes on both counts. Who would you compare him to (best/worst and/or most likely)?

 

[rtiff68]

I hope you guys don't mind me talking about prospects over here.
My thoughts:
Barnes is hard to compare to anyone, but i'll say worst case = Rashad McCants or Sebastian Telfair

Henson i think is very comparable to Brandan Wright.

I like the Kidd-Gilchrist and Gerald Wallace comparison.

Can I ask why you see McCants and/or Telfair? When I think of McCants and Telfair, I think of two guys with talent who consistently make terrible decisions every time they touch the ball (in McCants case, it's "touch-ball-shoot-ball," kind of like Nick Young).

In contrast, when I think of Barnes at his worst, I think of a talented player who disappears and fades into the background too much-- a player who is entirely too passive. You can say a lot of things about Rashad McCants, but you always know when he's in the game (for the aforementioned reason).

 

[CameronFrye]

Can I ask why you see McCants and/or Telfair? When I think of McCants and Telfair, I think of two guys with talent who consistently make terrible decisions every time they touch the ball (in McCants case, it's "touch-ball-shoot-ball," kind of like Nick Young).

In contrast, when I think of Barnes at his worst, I think of a talented player who disappears and fades into the background too much-- a player who is entirely too passive. You can say a lot of things about Rashad McCants, but you always know when he's in the game (for the aforementioned reason).

Knew. McCants hasn't played in the league in a few seasons. But your point is very accurate.

As for your assessment that Barnes disappears and fades into the background too much, I remember a certain ball-handling forward from a college in North Carolina who came out in 2002 to much hype and did exactly that. I wish I could remember his name.....

 

[rtiff68]

Knew. McCants hasn't played in the league in a few seasons. But your point is very accurate.

As for your assessment that Barnes disappears and fades into the background too much, I remember a certain ball-handling forward from a college in North Carolina who came out in 2002 to much hype and did exactly that. I wish I could remember his name.....

Kyle Singler?

Sorry, just trying to keep the theme of the thread going!

 

[CameronFrye]

Kyle Singler?

Sorry, just trying to keep the theme of the thread going!

LMAO. I sure as hell hope Barnes does not become the second coming of Singler or Dungina. That would be a shame.

 

[@sportsopinions]

Is Barnes a taller Wayne Ellington? To stick with the school comparison. He scored in college, couldn't create for himself. I remember in the National Championship I needed him to get 2 points in the second half to win a huge player points scored pool I'm in and I think he went scoreless, talk about disappearing...

 

[rtiff68]

Terrence Jones
Best case: a shorter Lamar Odom with a better jump shot.

Most likely: Darrell Arthur (the more muscular, 2011 version, not the fresh-out-of-Kansas version).

Fab Melo
Most likely: a more motivated Kwame Brown?

Best Case: a weaker, but more explosive and better rebounding version of Kendrick Perkins.

 

[uncfan103]

Ill try to answer those questions and explains my thoughts in this post...

I do not think Barnes has the ability to star in the NBA. The comparison to McCants and Telfair were because they had high expectations coming into the league and failed to really accomplish anything. I have a hard time comparing Barnes playing ability to anyone. I think Barnes will have a hard time transitioning because he can't create well, the NBA 3 point line is probably out of his range, he can't shoot off of the dribble (expect mid-range, with smaller defenders on him), and he is a poor ball handler, and lazy defender. As far as best cast scenario i don't have a player to compare him too, but i think he could be a solid starter/sixth man depending on the team and hold his own. I think best case scenario he can be compared to maybe Rudy Fernandez?

Henson is very comparable physically to Brandan Wright. I think Henson will be a better version of Brandan Wright. He will rebound better, and he has a better post game, im just not sure how his size will translate. I have a hard time believing Henson will bust the way Wright has, but if he does it is because he of his size rather than his playing ability.

 

[rtiff68]

Perry Jones III
Most Likely: a more athletic, non-stoned version of Michael Beasley. I think the NBA PJ3 ends up being a lot like the college PJ3: flashes of brilliance, decent-but-not-spectacular numbers, and a lot of fans/announcers/coaches saying "if only he dominated the way his talent suggests he should..."

Best case: a taller, more athletic, better rebounding version of Al Harrington (minus the tendency to create multitudes of "and 1" situations by tomahawk chopping every player that drives the lane instead of playing defense). A prime Al averaged 17/5, so that would put PJ3 averaging 17/8ish.

 

[CameronFrye]

Ill try to answer those questions and explains my thoughts in this post...

I do not think Barnes has the ability to star in the NBA. The comparison to McCants and Telfair were because they had high expectations coming into the league and failed to really accomplish anything. I have a hard time comparing Barnes playing ability to anyone. I think Barnes will have a hard time transitioning because he can't create well, the NBA 3 point line is probably out of his range, he can't shoot off of the dribble (expect mid-range, with smaller defenders on him), and he is a poor ball handler, and lazy defender. As far as best cast scenario i don't have a player to compare him too, but i think he could be a solid starter/sixth man depending on the team and hold his own. I think best case scenario he can be compared to maybe Rudy Fernandez?

Henson is very comparable physically to Brandan Wright. I think Henson will be a better version of Brandan Wright. He will rebound better, and he has a better post game, im just not sure how his size will translate. I have a hard time believing Henson will bust the way Wright has, but if he does it is because he of his size rather than his playing ability.

You keep saying that, but I just don't see it. Throughout this season and especially in the NCAA tournament, Barnes was covering both guys who were 4 inches taller and 4 inches shorter than he was - and he was holding his own on both ends. He wasn't getting the spectacular blocks like some dominant centers were and he was not pulling off quick steals that made anyone think of Gary Payton in his prime. But Barnes was keeping his man in front of him the whole time and was constantly contesting shots.

I will not argue with his shooting ability, because I think the kid takes too many ill-advised shots. But I will say that once he gets to the NBA, unless he is asked to carry a piss-poor team like Charlotte, he is going to be playing alongside better players, better shooters and better slashers than he is. Each one will be able to teach him the ins and outs of the NBA game. When it's all said and done, I honestly think that Barnes will be a solid - if unspectacular - player in the league. He'll be a solid role player like Trevor Ariza or James Posey or Thad Young - never the star of the team, but a guy who can score double-digits each night and do a lot of the stuff that doesn't get into the box score.

 

[uncfan103]

You keep saying that, but I just don't see it. Throughout this season and especially in the NCAA tournament, Barnes was covering both guys who were 4 inches taller and 4 inches shorter than he was - and he was holding his own on both ends. He wasn't getting the spectacular blocks like some dominant centers were and he was not pulling off quick steals that made anyone think of Gary Payton in his prime. But Barnes was keeping his man in front of him the whole time and was constantly contesting shots.

I will not argue with his shooting ability, because I think the kid takes too many ill-advised shots. But I will say that once he gets to the NBA, unless he is asked to carry a piss-poor team like Charlotte, he is going to be playing alongside better players, better shooters and better slashers than he is. Each one will be able to teach him the ins and outs of the NBA game. When it's all said and done, I honestly think that Barnes will be a solid - if unspectacular - player in the league. He'll be a solid role player like Trevor Ariza or James Posey or Thad Young - never the star of the team, but a guy who can score double-digits each night and do a lot of the stuff that doesn't get into the box score.

I understand what you are saying because he has the ability to play good defense, i just think he doesn't consistently play good defense throughout the game. I don't have a problem with the Thad Young and James Posey comparisons though. And I wish he wouldn't have taken the ill-advised shots that he did though, it wasn't necessary.

Here is a very good article about Harrison Barnes, IMO.
Brand Gone Bust: Harrison Barnes's two years with the North Carolina Tar Heels - Grantland

 

[CitySushi]

@ Uncfan and everyone else...

What are your thoughts on Kendall Marshall? What do you think his best, worst and most likely projections figure to be based on his time at UNC?

He sort of reminds me of Andre Miller. Not a lot of flash, but a great facilitator and suspect with his scoring. He doesn't strike me as a great athlete but a heady player who seems to make all the right decisions. Thoughts?

 

[uncfan103]

@ Uncfan and everyone else...

What are your thoughts on Kendall Marshall? What do you think his best, worst and most likely projections figure to be based on his time at UNC?

He sort of reminds me of Andre Miller. Not a lot of flash, but a great facilitator and suspect with his scoring. He doesn't strike me as a great athlete but a heady player who seems to make all the right decisions. Thoughts?

Jason Kidd - minus the rebounding. He lacks athleticism on the defensive side and likes to use his hands a lot. He is extremely knowledgable and aware of everything, and can make just about any pass. And his athleticism doesn't hinder him on offense because he is able to manipulate his defender. He is quick and can change directions in a heartbeat. A lot of people talk about his lack of scoring, but look at the end of this year. He averaged almost 15 points and 10 assists. But it will be interesting to see how they try to defend him in the NBA because some teams chose to sag way off of him, and some teams put constant pressure om him.

 

[uncfan103]

Ill try to answer those questions and explains my thoughts in this post...

I do not think Barnes has the ability to star in the NBA. The comparison to McCants and Telfair were because they had high expectations coming into the league and failed to really accomplish anything. I have a hard time comparing Barnes playing ability to anyone. I think Barnes will have a hard time transitioning because he can't create well, the NBA 3 point line is probably out of his range, he can't shoot off of the dribble (expect mid-range, with smaller defenders on him), and he is a poor ball handler, and lazy defender. As far as best cast scenario i don't have a player to compare him too, but i think he could be a solid starter/sixth man depending on the team and hold his own. I think best case scenario he can be compared to maybe Rudy Fernandez?

I would like to go ahead and beat everryone to it and say I was wrong, completely wrong. Barnes is in a good situation and has shown he is extremely capable of being an NBA starter. Good luck the rest of the series and season.

 

[Heathbar012]

I would like to go ahead and beat everryone to it and say I was wrong, completely wrong. Barnes is in a good situation and has shown he is extremely capable of being an NBA starter. Good luck the rest of the series and season.

I guess I missed this thread before. You're welcome here anytime. Got anymore scouting reports? I like that Marshall one. Are the Heels gonna get Wiggins?