2011 Projections

[tzill]

So, Cal's post over in dummyland got me thinking:

I think we can reasonably expect the following...

Torres falls back slightly.
Panda Improves to sub '09 numbers
Huff regresses slightly
Posey regresses to .280 / 20 / 85 (nice regression, huh?)
Sanchez plays 120 games, hitting .285
Miggy plays 145 games, 18 HRs, .250
Ross hits .270, 25 (look at his career numbers, dude is a baller)
Belt comes up and hits .260, 15 HR in half year

We will experience a slight regression in the pen, but that is only because the pen was sooo awesome in '10. Same with the rotation. You can not expect the rotation to perform as it did in '10, even with the horses we have.

I looked up Bill James 2011 projections for what I think the opening day lineup will be:

Player Slash OPS wOBA HR RBI

cf Torres 270/340/440 780 345 14 54
2b Franchez 285/330/400 730 321 8 54
c Posey 310/370/505 875 380 21 83
1b Huff 270/350/455 805 350 19 75
3b Panda 310/365/490 855 372 18 78
ss Miggy 280/325/415 740 320 17 84
rf Ross 265/320/445 765 332 18 70
lf DeRosa 260/330/410 740 325 14 63

James projections tend to be pretty good. The variance for any one player can be pretty big of course (Huff could hit 320, Panda could completely bomb) but in aggregate I think they're usually pretty good. So, given that premise, I'd note that there is no crap hitter in this lineup, nor is there a guy who will struggle to get on base.

There is no 30 HR guy, but only Franchez is unlikely to hit at least 10 HR. The hitting is spread throughout the lineup and there is only one guy who is a hacker (Panda). This could very well be an above average offense in 2011.

Especially if they go out and get JJ Hardy and let Miggy be the supersub.

All in all, I'm digging Sabes this offseason.

 

[Heathbar012]

Here, here. +1. I like the looks of that line-up. Health, health, health.

 

[Heathbar012]

By the way, tzill, I can't really get any of the intelligent posters at the Warriors board to answer what I think are valid questions. I mostly get responses from guys with poor reading comprehension. You'd tell me if I'm an asshole, right?

 

[filosofy29]

Here, here. +1. I like the looks of that line-up. Health, health, health.

I thought your name was Heath?

Also Heath, I hate boards like that. The ones where if you're not a regular they don't even respond to your posts or questions. I mean really? They take themselves that seriously as posters that they don't answer valid questions by new posters? Wow.....

 

[Heathbar012]

Luckily, much like the rest here, I don't take myself or the internet too seriously. You're right, though. I guess with any pack there has to be some butt-sniffing before acceptance. Cue joke from cal in 5...4...3...2...

 

[filosofy29]

Luckily, much like the rest here, I don't take myself or the internet too seriously. You're right, though. I guess with any pack there has to be some butt-sniffing before acceptance. Cue joke from cal in 5...4...3...2...

That's how I met my wife.....

I know, you and Cal are having a Battle Royale today. Cal's just mad because he's a closet Casey Blake fan.

Alright, I admit it, I paid him off to get back at you for the Creepy Uncle comment

 

[Heathbar012]

That's the thing. Cal doesn't do it for the money. It's for the love of the game... and maybe Casey Blake.

 

[calsnowskier]

That's the thing. Cal doesn't do it for the money. It's for the love of the game... and maybe Casey Blake.

You are the one who commented on how Blakes blazer brought out the color in his eyes and how he filled out his pants.

BTW, do you still have the Steve Lyons incident video on your desktop?

 

[Heathbar012]

You can't fault me for being detail-oriented no matter how homo-erotic. Well...

The only Steve Lyons incident that I'm aware of is his broadcasting career. Zing! .

 

[TidrowThePitchingMaster]

I actually expect Posey to be slightly better this year. A slight decrease in power but an increase in his BB rate.


Other than that, I concur with everything.

 

[calsnowskier]

You can't fault me for being detail-oriented no matter how homo-erotic. Well...

The only Steve Lyons incident that I'm aware of is his broadcasting career. Zing! .

YouTube - Psycho Steve Lyons Drops His Pants During a Game

 

[popeyecv64]

YouTube - Psycho Steve Lyons Drops His Pants During a Game

I will not troll this thread sirs

 

[Heathbar012]

YouTube - Psycho Steve Lyons Drops His Pants During a Game

Hahahaha. I remember that now. That look to the sky is priceless. "I can't believe I just forgot where I was." And, yes, screen capture now has it as my desktop photo. ...

 

[tzill]

By the way, tzill, I can't really get any of the intelligent posters at the Warriors board to answer what I think are valid questions. I mostly get responses from guys with poor reading comprehension. You'd tell me if I'm an asshole, right?

Probably not on the ESPN boards, as I'm one "a-hole" away from being banned.

Not that this would kill me, mind you.

On the Ws board, there are a couple of solid posters (CamFry, Billinder, a couple of others) and if you really want a response, I'd appeal directly to them. I'll venture over there and see if I can get things stirred up for you.

Asshole. :p

 

[Heathbar012]

Probably not on the ESPN boards, as I'm one "a-hole" away from being banned.

Not that this would kill me, mind you.

On the Ws board, there are a couple of solid posters (CamFry, Billinder, a couple of others) and if you really want a response, I'd appeal directly to them. I'll venture over there and see if I can get things stirred up for you.

Asshole. :p

I've recently realized aside from you, so money, Bill, Chuck, shaff, cam, (occasionally) oaksoldier, (maybe) joepro and (possibly) a couple others, that board is pretty worthless. That should be enough for some good discourse, but it doesn't help that the Warriors are playing horribly and all of those guys above are probably better at their jobs than me. .

 

[msgkings322]

I've recently realized aside from you, so money, Bill, Chuck, shaff, cam, (occasionally) oaksoldier, (maybe) joepro and (possibly) a couple others, that board is pretty worthless. That should be enough for some good discourse, but it doesn't help that the Warriors are playing horribly and all of those guys above are probably better at their jobs than me. .

What do you mean they are playing 'horribly'? They are playing 'Warrior-ly'. Isn't their current play familiar?

 

[Heathbar012]

What do you mean they are playing 'horribly'? They are playing 'Warrior-ly'. Isn't their current play familiar?

Touche. I should be used to mediocrity, but I really like the starting 5. Unfortunately, they can't play effectively for 48 minutes every night. With key players locked up and maturing, I still think that they're in a good position. We'll see. It looks like I should watch more college ball to see who might fall to them in the draft.

 

[msgkings322]

Touche. I should be used to mediocrity, but I really like the starting 5. Unfortunately, they can't play effectively for 48 minutes every night. With key players locked up and maturing, I still think that they're in a good position. We'll see. It looks like I should watch more college ball to see who might fall to them in the draft.

To be fair they teased us with their good start vs a soft schedule, so there was (and is) reason to hope for improvement, finally. But the current stretch of games is their toughest all year. If they can keep their heads up after this run, they might be able to finish at .500 or so and contend for the right to have LA or SA crush them in the first round of the playoffs.

 

[Heathbar012]

To be fair they teased us with their good start vs a soft schedule, so there was (and is) reason to hope for improvement, finally. But the current stretch of games is their toughest all year. If they can keep their heads up after this run, they might be able to finish at .500 or so and contend for the right to have LA or SA crush them in the first round of the playoffs.

This is all that I expected of them at the beginning of the year. The Lee, Amudson and Udoh injuries have hurt their chances to steal wins from thin front courts, like Phoenix and Portland (hopefully). The games that still haunt me are the Pistons and Bucks losses on the road and the Knicks loss at home.They should be 11-9 at the worst (Memphis, Houston and Phoenix should've gone down, too), but like I said, "Oh, well." We'll see how much of an impact Amundson has on that second unit. Him and a solid back-up pg will make the Warriors significantly better.

 

[tzill]

I've recently realized aside from you, so money, Bill, Chuck, shaff, cam, (occasionally) oaksoldier, (maybe) joepro and (possibly) a couple others, that board is pretty worthless. That should be enough for some good discourse, but it doesn't help that the Warriors are playing horribly and all of those guys above are probably better at their jobs than me. .

Yeah, we've got a Tito clone Jeremy Lin fanboi now, which is pretty irritating. Also, we're in the middle of a probable seven game losing streak, so the regulars are lying low. Things should pick up there in the New Year.