MLB Daily Thread: 10-19-17 Does Houston Have A Chance Now? Celtics Lose AGAIN

[SlinkyRedfoot]

i think it's fascinating that yanks could make the WS...and then do a huge payroll slash.

Marlins style.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I get jokes

I do sometimes. Not right now, though.

 

[Used 2 B Hu]

Well the Dodgers only won once in Brooklyn and the Giants only won twice in New York after the Yankees won their first. It was mostly just the Yankees.

My bad...what he actually pointed out, was that nearly every world series featured one or two of the NY teams. Seems like there was a decade plus where it was either yanks, dodgers, or giants

 

[Used 2 B Hu]

I do sometimes. Not right now, though.

Jon Heyman barking at the moment?

 

[soxfan1468927]

I'm not sure that math works out.

Sure it does.

54/100*58/100=.313

So they are giving the Astros a 32% chance of winning both games. Which adds up since the actual percentage could be 54.4% and 58.4% and they are just rounding. Would come to 31.7% in that case.

And then if they think the Dodgers have a greater than 50% chance of beating those teams (which their "rating" has the Dodgers as the best team") then you cut the number in half. Which it roughly is.

 

[PolarVortex]

FiveThirtyEight.com is giving the Yankees a 32% chance of winning the World Series, and the Astros only 15%.

However, they're giving the Astros a 58% chance of winning on Friday, and 54% on Saturday.

That math does not even work. Oddsmaker dumbassery.

 

[PolarVortex]

All yo

I have three testicles.

u need now is a girl with a supernumerary nipple....or Chandler Bing.

 

[navamind]

I just want Game 7's. I'm not ready for baseball to end.

 

[soxfan1468927]

My bad...what he actually pointed out, was that nearly every world series featured one or two of the NY teams. Seems like there was a decade plus where it was either yanks, dodgers, or giants

Oh yeah, from 1920-1957 a New York team appeared in 27 out of 38 World Series. 13 of those had two NY teams, 1 had just the Dodgers, 3 had just the Giants, and 10 just the Yankees. And a New York team won 8 straight championships from 1949-1956 and only two other teams even made a WS appearances. The 1950 Phillies and 1954 Indians.

 

[The Q]

I just want Game 7's. I'm not ready for baseball to end.

I wish for 43 games every October.

 

[Mike A. S.]

Nothing. Well, actually there are a few things wrong with stats. For one thing, they hold back the evolution of baseball because the stats are so sacred to baseball fans. Like, if stats weren't consumed and worshipped with such affection, baseball would probably move to a more reasonable schedule. Like maybe 130 games a year with a season that started in mid-April and ended in mid-September. But, as fans, we want our favorite players to have a fighting chance to break records held by players that played in 154 or 162 game format.

Baseball simply should not be played in the snow.

That's not only about the stats. Nobody wants to lose 30-some games worth of the money they can make by playing those extra 30-some games either.

 

[soxfan1468927]

That math does not even work. Oddsmaker dumbassery.

What doesn't work about that math?

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Sure it does.

54/100*58/100=.313

So they are giving the Astros a 32% chance of winning both games. Which adds up since the actual percentage could be 54.4% and 58.4% and they are just rounding. Would come to 31.7% in that case.

And then if they think the Dodgers have a greater than 50% chance of beating those teams (which their "rating" has the Dodgers as the best team") then you cut the number in half. Which it roughly is.

That math does not even work. Oddsmaker dumbassery.

FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

i think it's fascinating that yanks could make the WS...and then do a huge payroll slash.

Its the most genius rebuild in the history of professional sports

You cannot think of a rebuild in any other sport where a team doesnt completely bottom out

And to think that their payroll will be slashed significantly next season...Beautiful

 

[soxfan1468927]

FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!

It's pretty easy. If FiveThirtyEight gives the Astros a 54% and 58% chance of winning the next two games, then there is a 30.8-31.8% chance that both occur. Just based on how they round it. Has to be at least 31.51% since they rounded up to 32%.

So the Yankees have at least a 68.49% chance of reaching the World Series. If they give the Yankees a 46-47.4% chance of beating the Dodgers or Cubs (weighted towards the Dodgers as they are given a 92% chance to advance), then the odds of both happening is between 31.5-32.46%.

If the Astros are given that 31.51% chance of advancing, and given the same chance the Yankees would have against the Dodgers/Cubs they have a 14.5-14.9% chance of both events occurring.

Makes perfect sense.

 

[The Q]

Its the most genius rebuild in the history of professional sports

You cannot think of a rebuild in any other sport where a team doesnt completely bottom out

And to think that their payroll will be slashed significantly next season...Beautiful

if they lose in the WS...it will be interesting to see Yankee fans and writers reactions.

But then again, if they landed Machado or Harper, that would soften the blow.

 

[The Q]

It's pretty easy. If FiveThirtyEight gives the Astros a 54% and 58% chance of winning the next two games, then there is a 30.8-31.8% chance that both occur. Just based on how they round it. Has to be at least 31.51% since they rounded up to 32%.

So the Yankees have at least a 68.49% chance of reaching the World Series. If they give the Yankees a 46-47.4% chance of beating the Dodgers or Cubs (weighted towards the Dodgers as they are given a 92% chance to advance), then the odds of both happening is between 31.5-32.46%.

If the Astros are given that 31.51% chance of advancing, and given the same chance the Yankees would have against the Dodgers/Cubs they have a 14.5-14.9% chance of both events occurring.

Makes perfect sense.

*FanGraphs' simulations have the Astros winning Games 6 & 7 30.6% of the time. FiveThirtyEight gives it a 32% chance, but gives the Astros a 58-42 edge on Friday...and a 54-46 edge on Saturday.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

if they lose in the WS...it will be interesting to see Yankee fans and writers reactions.

I'd have to think everyone would be pretty happy. Disappointed, sure, but no one put them in the World Series preseason.

 

[The Q]

*Teams trailing 3-2 have lost the series in 37 of 55 instances. BUT! Teams trailing 3-2 with Games 6 & 7 at home have won the series 13 of 27 times."

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

if they lose in the WS...it will be interesting to see Yankee fans and writers reactions.

But then again, if they landed Machado or Harper, that would soften the blow.

Most people have seen this season as Gravy once they advanced past the Twins

There was little optimism to upset the Tribe

Less optimism to upset the Stros

And I assume even less vs the Dodgers should they get there

No one ever wants to lose a World Series, but the fact that the window is just opening, it lessens the blow