• Have something to say? Register Now! and be posting in minutes!

MLB Daily Thread: 10-19-17 Does Houston Have A Chance Now? Celtics Lose AGAIN

Used 2 B Hu

Baredevil
111,678
24,239
1,033
Joined
Apr 19, 2013
Location
USA
Hoopla Cash
$ 1,525.18
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
Well the Dodgers only won once in Brooklyn and the Giants only won twice in New York after the Yankees won their first. It was mostly just the Yankees.

My bad...what he actually pointed out, was that nearly every world series featured one or two of the NY teams. Seems like there was a decade plus where it was either yanks, dodgers, or giants
 

soxfan1468927

Well-Known Member
7,001
978
113
Joined
Jul 3, 2013
Location
603
Hoopla Cash
$ 7,185.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
I'm not sure that math works out.
Sure it does.

54/100*58/100=.313

So they are giving the Astros a 32% chance of winning both games. Which adds up since the actual percentage could be 54.4% and 58.4% and they are just rounding. Would come to 31.7% in that case.

And then if they think the Dodgers have a greater than 50% chance of beating those teams (which their "rating" has the Dodgers as the best team") then you cut the number in half. Which it roughly is.
 

navamind

Well-Known Member
21,578
4,972
293
Joined
May 15, 2012
Location
NJ
Hoopla Cash
$ 1,000.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
I just want Game 7's. I'm not ready for baseball to end. :(
 

soxfan1468927

Well-Known Member
7,001
978
113
Joined
Jul 3, 2013
Location
603
Hoopla Cash
$ 7,185.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
My bad...what he actually pointed out, was that nearly every world series featured one or two of the NY teams. Seems like there was a decade plus where it was either yanks, dodgers, or giants
Oh yeah, from 1920-1957 a New York team appeared in 27 out of 38 World Series. 13 of those had two NY teams, 1 had just the Dodgers, 3 had just the Giants, and 10 just the Yankees. And a New York team won 8 straight championships from 1949-1956 and only two other teams even made a WS appearances. The 1950 Phillies and 1954 Indians.
 

The Q

Hoop’s Villain, Reality’s Hero
32,630
11,213
1,033
Joined
Aug 16, 2015
Hoopla Cash
$ 1,000.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3

Mike A. S.

Well-Known Member
1,553
268
83
Joined
Dec 20, 2016
Hoopla Cash
$ 1,000.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
Nothing. Well, actually there are a few things wrong with stats. For one thing, they hold back the evolution of baseball because the stats are so sacred to baseball fans. Like, if stats weren't consumed and worshipped with such affection, baseball would probably move to a more reasonable schedule. Like maybe 130 games a year with a season that started in mid-April and ended in mid-September. But, as fans, we want our favorite players to have a fighting chance to break records held by players that played in 154 or 162 game format.

Baseball simply should not be played in the snow.
That's not only about the stats. Nobody wants to lose 30-some games worth of the money they can make by playing those extra 30-some games either.
 

SlinkyRedfoot

Well-Known Member
40,575
8,605
533
Joined
Jul 15, 2014
Location
Cripple Creek
Hoopla Cash
$ 500.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
Sure it does.

54/100*58/100=.313

So they are giving the Astros a 32% chance of winning both games. Which adds up since the actual percentage could be 54.4% and 58.4% and they are just rounding. Would come to 31.7% in that case.

And then if they think the Dodgers have a greater than 50% chance of beating those teams (which their "rating" has the Dodgers as the best team") then you cut the number in half. Which it roughly is.

That math does not even work. Oddsmaker dumbassery.

FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!
 

DirtDirtDirt

Well-Known Member
31,892
5,215
533
Joined
Apr 17, 2013
Hoopla Cash
$ 1,000.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
i think it's fascinating that yanks could make the WS...and then do a huge payroll slash.


Its the most genius rebuild in the history of professional sports

You cannot think of a rebuild in any other sport where a team doesnt completely bottom out

And to think that their payroll will be slashed significantly next season...Beautiful
 

soxfan1468927

Well-Known Member
7,001
978
113
Joined
Jul 3, 2013
Location
603
Hoopla Cash
$ 7,185.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!
It's pretty easy. If FiveThirtyEight gives the Astros a 54% and 58% chance of winning the next two games, then there is a 30.8-31.8% chance that both occur. Just based on how they round it. Has to be at least 31.51% since they rounded up to 32%.

So the Yankees have at least a 68.49% chance of reaching the World Series. If they give the Yankees a 46-47.4% chance of beating the Dodgers or Cubs (weighted towards the Dodgers as they are given a 92% chance to advance), then the odds of both happening is between 31.5-32.46%.

If the Astros are given that 31.51% chance of advancing, and given the same chance the Yankees would have against the Dodgers/Cubs they have a 14.5-14.9% chance of both events occurring.

Makes perfect sense.
 

The Q

Hoop’s Villain, Reality’s Hero
32,630
11,213
1,033
Joined
Aug 16, 2015
Hoopla Cash
$ 1,000.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
Its the most genius rebuild in the history of professional sports

You cannot think of a rebuild in any other sport where a team doesnt completely bottom out

And to think that their payroll will be slashed significantly next season...Beautiful

if they lose in the WS...it will be interesting to see Yankee fans and writers reactions.

But then again, if they landed Machado or Harper, that would soften the blow.
 

The Q

Hoop’s Villain, Reality’s Hero
32,630
11,213
1,033
Joined
Aug 16, 2015
Hoopla Cash
$ 1,000.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
It's pretty easy. If FiveThirtyEight gives the Astros a 54% and 58% chance of winning the next two games, then there is a 30.8-31.8% chance that both occur. Just based on how they round it. Has to be at least 31.51% since they rounded up to 32%.

So the Yankees have at least a 68.49% chance of reaching the World Series. If they give the Yankees a 46-47.4% chance of beating the Dodgers or Cubs (weighted towards the Dodgers as they are given a 92% chance to advance), then the odds of both happening is between 31.5-32.46%.

If the Astros are given that 31.51% chance of advancing, and given the same chance the Yankees would have against the Dodgers/Cubs they have a 14.5-14.9% chance of both events occurring.

Makes perfect sense.

*FanGraphs' simulations have the Astros winning Games 6 & 7 30.6% of the time. FiveThirtyEight gives it a 32% chance, but gives the Astros a 58-42 edge on Friday...and a 54-46 edge on Saturday.
 

SlinkyRedfoot

Well-Known Member
40,575
8,605
533
Joined
Jul 15, 2014
Location
Cripple Creek
Hoopla Cash
$ 500.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
if they lose in the WS...it will be interesting to see Yankee fans and writers reactions.

I'd have to think everyone would be pretty happy. Disappointed, sure, but no one put them in the World Series preseason.
 

The Q

Hoop’s Villain, Reality’s Hero
32,630
11,213
1,033
Joined
Aug 16, 2015
Hoopla Cash
$ 1,000.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
*Teams trailing 3-2 have lost the series in 37 of 55 instances. BUT! Teams trailing 3-2 with Games 6 & 7 at home have won the series 13 of 27 times."
 

DirtDirtDirt

Well-Known Member
31,892
5,215
533
Joined
Apr 17, 2013
Hoopla Cash
$ 1,000.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
if they lose in the WS...it will be interesting to see Yankee fans and writers reactions.

But then again, if they landed Machado or Harper, that would soften the blow.


Most people have seen this season as Gravy once they advanced past the Twins

There was little optimism to upset the Tribe

Less optimism to upset the Stros

And I assume even less vs the Dodgers should they get there

No one ever wants to lose a World Series, but the fact that the window is just opening, it lessens the blow
 
Top