10-1

[Irish7478]

you don't get it so let's just drop it.

I know you were interested on the point spreads of the losses. ND was a 2.5 point underdog to Clemson. We lost by 2, so we beat the spread. Bama was a 14.5 point favorite versus Ole Miss, they lost by 6. They missed the spread by 20.5. Oklahoma was a 13.5 point favorite over Texas, they lost by 7. They missed the spread by 20.5 (same as Bama). Michigan State was a 6.5 point favorite over Nebraska, they lost by 1. They missed the spread by 7.5 points.

Hopefully that helps you formulate your argument on which losses were the worst.

 

[whywork2]

Las Vegas point spreads are merely a tool to divide the betting in half. Nothing more or less. They're not a prediction of anything more or less.

 

[KnuteRoc]

1. Clemson
2. Bamy
3. Irish
4. Iowa
5. Oklahoma/MSU

Oklahoma shouldn't have overtaken us this week considering the only change is SoS recalculations.

Iowa replaces tOSU and Oklahoma or MSU will be in the fifth and sixth spot. This then allows everything to fall into place; if the Irish beat Stanford, they remain in the Top4. Once Iowa and MSU play for the B1GCG the winner will be 3rd or 4th, with the Irish taking the other spot. Oklahoma is left out. Of course the media folks are hyping up the OU, they have a backloaded schedule and the B12 runs the risk of being left out of the party for the second year in a row. But, check the numbers tonight, I doubt OU's SoS overtakes the Irish's and nothing else has changed other than someone considering the Irish won ugly. But tOSU won ugly almost the whole year and still had a place in the top 4 gifted to them every week by these very same talking heads simply because they're 'defending champs', as if that has anything to do with the selection process. It's about this year, not what you did last year. That BS talk needs to stop from them. If ND loses to Stanford, then it's as easy as Oklahoma or the B12 champ taking our spot.

Now the only real problem for us is that there is this little talked about 'responsibility' from the committee to try not to have rematches of in-season games. So, if the Irish make it, they might be ranked 3rd so as to avoid a 'direct' rematch. If they make it and Clemson does too, well... then they do.

I really don't see how Oklahoma leaps us except for an inordinate amount of importance placed on these last two games, which would probably be categorized as wins over Top25. Both teams have 2 wins depending on which Poll or Ranking you're using. We have Navy/USC or Navy/Temple, and OU has Baylor and TCU, but OU has Akron and their SoS, so while they may have the edge on quality of top 25 Ws, we have the edge on overall SoS and have two top 25 Ws as well. Then if that's still too close, they'll look at injuries. We should be fine there too... Kelly's plan is working to perfection.

 

[Irish7478]

I think we could move down one or two spots, based on the poor performance against BC and the injuries sustained. Hopefully a good performance against Stanford will move us back, and some upsets in the Big10 or Big12 could help get us back into the playoff picture.

 

[poewelch84]

1. Clemson
2. Bamy
3. Irish
4. Iowa
5. Oklahoma/MSU

Oklahoma shouldn't have overtaken us this week considering the only change is SoS recalculations.

Iowa replaces tOSU and Oklahoma or MSU will be in the fifth and sixth spot. This then allows everything to fall into place; if the Irish beat Stanford, they remain in the Top4. Once Iowa and MSU play for the B1GCG the winner will be 3rd or 4th, with the Irish taking the other spot. Oklahoma is left out. Of course the media folks are hyping up the OU, they have a backloaded schedule and the B12 runs the risk of being left out of the party for the second year in a row. But, check the numbers tonight, I doubt OU's SoS overtakes the Irish's and nothing else has changed other than someone considering the Irish won ugly. But tOSU won ugly almost the whole year and still had a place in the top 4 gifted to them every week by these very same talking heads simply because they're 'defending champs', as if that has anything to do with the selection process. It's about this year, not what you did last year. That BS talk needs to stop from them. If ND loses to Stanford, then it's as easy as Oklahoma or the B12 champ taking our spot.

Now the only real problem for us is that there is this little talked about 'responsibility' from the committee to try not to have rematches of in-season games. So, if the Irish make it, they might be ranked 3rd so as to avoid a 'direct' rematch. If they make it and Clemson does too, well... then they do.

I really don't see how Oklahoma leaps us except for an inordinate amount of importance placed on these last two games, which would probably be categorized as wins over Top25. Both teams have 2 wins depending on which Poll or Ranking you're using. We have Navy/USC or Navy/Temple, and OU has Baylor and TCU, but OU has Akron and their SoS, so while they may have the edge on quality of top 25 Ws, we have the edge on overall SoS and have two top 25 Ws as well. Then if that's still too close, they'll look at injuries. We should be fine there too... Kelly's plan is working to perfection.

TCU was ranked 18th and lost again they will be a top 25 team but only for another week. OSU losing will drop them down a bit because they didn't respect them to begin with. Notre Dame should have two wins agains top 25 teams when the final rankings come out just as Oklahoma will as you've said above of course that depends on the kind of drop Oklahoma State takes after losing to Baylor and Oklahoma.

 

[poewelch84]

I think we could move down one or two spots, based on the poor performance against BC and the injuries sustained. Hopefully a good performance against Stanford will move us back, and some upsets in the Big10 or Big12 could help get us back into the playoff picture.

I don't see it happening because of the injuries simply because Adams he can play at a high level himself so that won't be the case. The poor performance perhaps but the committee will look at the fact that BC is the best defense statistically in the country and their play on the field all season has backed that up to a degree (you can question their competition level but they seem to have played well enough against better teams).

 

[idseer]

So what did you mean when you said "I'd love to point out how our losses are worse than most (maybe all) of the contenders but I can't without a whole lot of investigative work". What additional info would you need to show that Oklahoma losing to Texas was worse than ND losing to Clemson? Or Bama losing to Ole Miss? Or Michigan State losing to Nebraska?

oh .... NOW you get it?

show me how many times notre dame met it's betting margin vs all the other teams meeting theirs that you're talking about ... for all games played ... not just the losses.

you know ... comparing nd's loss to these other team's losses isn't very relevant. and it seems to be the only thing you feel is important. when notre dame had a great team in 1993 their one loss was to a weak bc team. did that loss mean nd was not one of the top 4 teams in cf? hell no! alabama. msu, osu, baylor, fla, nc, ou, and ND ... all found a way to lose one game. look at the work as a whole ... which is what you have to do with all the other teams you've mentioned.

 

[idseer]

I don't see it happening because of the injuries simply because Adams he can play at a high level himself so that won't be the case. The poor performance perhaps but the committee will look at the fact that BC is the best defense statistically in the country and their play on the field all season has backed that up to a degree (you can question their competition level but they seem to have played well enough against better teams).

even stats such as "best defense' aren't solid indicators. best defense against who? bc is currently ranked 46th in sos. or do you believe that bc ACTUALLY has the best defense in the country?

 

[idseer]

Las Vegas point spreads are merely a tool to divide the betting in half. Nothing more or less. They're not a prediction of anything more or less.

i don't believe that's altogether true. i think when you look at the total year for all the teams involved it's a pretty accurate gauge of a team's ability.

 

[whywork2]

i don't believe that's altogether true. i think when you look at the total year for all the teams involved it's a pretty accurate gauge of a team's ability.

whether you believe it or not that is just stating fact. They put out the lines to divide the bet, it's that simple. It may or may not end up being a guage, that's not their goal. Their goal is to divide the bet and make the juice and be put in a no lose situation.

 

[idseer]

whether you believe it or not that is just stating fact. They put out the lines to divide the bet, it's that simple. It may or may not end up being a guage, that's not their goal. Their goal is to divide the bet and make the juice and be put in a no lose situation.

that would also be a no win situation. i don't think they're in business to break even.
besides ... are you telling me odds aren't made until after the betting is done? i don't think so.

 

[whywork2]

that would also be a no win situation. i don't think their in business to break even.

No disrespect but they collect the juice or vigorish on the losses. It generally is ten percent and over time adds up to a tremendous amount of winnings. Someone has to pick greater than 55% winners against the Vegas line just to play even. Let's say you bet ten games for one hundred a game. If you go five and five you already out $50 and that's when you play even. If you win 6 out of 10 at one hundred a game you would win $600-$440 and be ahead $160 . If on the other hand you lose 6 of 10 you win 4 times $100 equaling $400 but lose 6 times $110 which is minus $660 and therefore you're out $260. So if you win six of ten you're ahead $160 but if you lose six of ten you're out $260. Parlays and teaser bets are even more profitable for the house. You're correct on one thing, they , Vegas , are not in the business to break even. You don't build temples in the desert on losses.

 

[whywork2]

even stats such as "best defense' aren't solid indicators. best defense against who? bc is currently ranked 46th in sos. or do you believe that bc ACTUALLY has the best defense in the country?

Just for the record I agree with you here. BC is by no means the best defense, they're a solid defense though no doubt.

 

[whywork2]

that would also be a no win situation. i don't think they're in business to break even.
besides ... are you telling me odds aren't made until after the betting is done? i don't think so.

No, Vegas puts out an early line and depending on the betting they make adjustments as the money comes in. Come on man. I take it you never gambled on the Vegas point spreads. This by the way isn't my opinion, this is just matter of fact.

 

[KnuteRoc]

Well just peruse the Guess that Stat thread, Purguy updates it every week, it should have the results of the Irish versus the spread for every game, though we obviously didn't beat the spread this past week. I should've known better too because BC does historically play us tough. I had to be the dunce and think that the Irish would play similarly to the previous week. 28-7 against one of the worst offenses in the nation wouldn't have been too out of the realm of possibilities. 19-16 with 3 Redzone turnovers and a dropped pass from Fuller that arguably would've been a TD puts us over the spread if we hit 3 FGs and one TD.

Now though I agree that Vegas does put the lines to start with at a spot that will generate betting, I also agree that they do engage in oddsmaking with respect to whom they feel would beat whom and they're usually pretty accurate and often times are close to their margin, aka, spread. Like for example this past week, it was 16.5. Well we know damn well the game doesn't deal in half-points. I think that half point is there to trip up those that will bet the spread. Just because the betting is heavily on ND which raises the spread margin, someone still has to decide what amount to increase the spread in order to generate the betting.

If the initial line is +2.5 for Stanford, the vegas thinking is that even as the visitor they think ND might win. Doesn't the home team typically get +3 for homefield? So no matter how the betting starts to go, toward one team or the other, the line's base starting point is set by the odds makers as who they think will win, or at least that's my understanding of it, please school me if I'm wrong.

 

[Irish7478]

oh .... NOW you get it?

show me how many times notre dame met it's betting margin vs all the other teams meeting theirs that you're talking about ... for all games played ... not just the losses.

you know ... comparing nd's loss to these other team's losses isn't very relevant. and it seems to be the only thing you feel is important. when notre dame had a great team in 1993 their one loss was to a weak bc team. did that loss mean nd was not one of the top 4 teams in cf? hell no! alabama. msu, osu, baylor, fla, nc, ou, and ND ... all found a way to lose one game. look at the work as a whole ... which is what you have to do with all the other teams you've mentioned.

Are you joking? Your post specifically talked about "how our losses are worse than most (maybe all) of the contenders". Now suddenly your changing it. You really are a piece of work. God I wish you were a Michigan fan.

 

[purguy12]

overall I think a win and we are in. I can't see us being in it the whole time and now the committee taking us out after a win against Stanford. It wouldn't make much sense. If so why not have us in the top 4 at all. Just to be safe I would like to see Oklahoma lose and Iowa. I do think Iowa will lose in the conference championship game. Also bama losing in the SEC would be awesome. Then no SEC team makes it.

 

[purguy12]

we have the best loss against all 1 loss teams. That will help us big time. We just need Clemson to win out. Stanford win would give us a top win also throw in the win against Navy if they win out they will be a top 15 team.

Just have to think positive.

 

[idseer]

No, Vegas puts out an early line and depending on the betting they make adjustments as the money comes in. Come on man. I take it you never gambled on the Vegas point spreads. This by the way isn't my opinion, this is just matter of fact.

actually no. never in my life. thanks for the info.

what still confuses me is ... when notre dame is a 2 td favorite to win ... that has nothing to do with actual expectations?

 

[purguy12]

Shocked we fell that much. A win should still get us in but having oklahoma ahead of us is the biggest joke ever. I think they want to see Irish get a nice win before they jump us back in.