So is this the year to not go heavy on RB?

[SmokingMonkey]

to answer the original question, I'll go with no.
This is THE year to go heavy on RB.

Don't be shy, grab yourself a handful, maybe two.
Tons of late value WRs with high ceilings.
Unfortunately they all have floors that flirt with 0 on a weekly basis as well.
But therein lies the gamble.

Some names off the top of my head:
Tavon Austin
Insert this year's Saints WR name
Insert Texans rookie WR name
Torrey Smith
Markus Wheaton
Marvin Jones
White/Treadwell/Coleman/Shepard - I'm sure there are a couple other 1st yr WRs that haven't played in the NFL yet that will be fantasy relevant and could be had cheap in a draft

 

[TREFF]

to answer the original question, I'll go with no.
This is THE year to go heavy on RB.

Don't be shy, grab yourself a handful, maybe two.
Tons of late value WRs with high ceilings.
Unfortunately they all have floors that flirt with 0 on a weekly basis as well.
But therein lies the gamble.

Some names off the top of my head:
Tavon Austin
Insert this year's Saints WR name
Insert Texans rookie WR name
Torrey Smith
Markus Wheaton
Marvin Jones
White/Treadwell/Coleman/Shepard - I'm sure there are a couple other 1st yr WRs that haven't played in the NFL yet that will be fantasy relevant and could be had cheap in a draft

That's my opinion as well. The more pass happy the league gets, the more and more viable WR's there are. Not difficult in the least to find plenty of decent alternatives on in the wire throughout the season, the same cannot be said for RB's. Yes the top guy have turnover all the time, yes the best WR's are more reliable. .they're also much more plentiful

 

[SteelersPride]

I mean last year I won my big money league after drafting Andrew Luck in the 1st. And it was mostly because I got first round QB play out of Blake Bortles the second half of the season. It doesn't really matter what you do as long as you end up with 3+ studs and some good filler.

that's lucky, bc u lack severe depth taking a qb in round 1

 

[eaglesnut]

that's lucky, bc u lack severe depth taking a qb in round 1

Definitely some great luck involved. But the lack of depth isn't any more than if you miss on a 1st round RB. My team was pretty poor until I started to get 1st round production from my QB. Just turned out to be a FA guy performing at that level instead of my 1st round QB.

 

[Brees#1]

I'd take the first, but point is going wr even in your first 3 rounds really isn't bad. Idk why people obsess over getting rbs and needing rbs to win in December.

I don't like playing like a 10 year old who likes his receivers.

 

[ehb5]

I don't like playing like a 10 year old who likes his receivers.

What?

 

[Brees#1]

Young people tend to draft QBs and receivers in fantasy early. I just got rid of a teenager that played like that. He would draft Jeffery, Green, Megatron with his first picks the last three years(one was 2nd round, one was 3rd because of keepers). I do not like to play the zero RB strategy. Last year was a fluke, don't expect all those RBs to get hurt again so you can win a title with Antonio or ODB.

And yes, WRs turn up on FA all the time because the top number twos are hard to figure out before the season starts. Also, people drop players during bye weeks as well.

 

[ehb5]

Young people tend to draft QBs and receivers in fantasy early. I just got rid of a teenager that played like that. He would draft Jeffery, Green, Megatron with his first picks the last three years(one was 2nd round, one was 3rd because of keepers). I do not like to play the zero RB strategy. Last year was a fluke, don't expect all those RBs to get hurt again so you can win a title with Antonio or ODB.

And yes, WRs turn up on FA all the time because the top number twos are hard to figure out before the season starts. Also, people drop players during bye weeks as well.

Ahaha what?? First off I'd love something more than anecdotal evidence about young people drafting qbs and wrs first.

Secondly - you got rid of a kid because he drafted Jeffery, Green, Megatron?? They're good players! Wtf!?? Would love to hear why taking a WR in the first is awful.

Whether last year was a fluke or not if you have Antonio and OBJ with meh RBS you're gonna have a damn good team most likely.

I really hope you aren't putting money on any of these leagues you're in for your own sake.

 

[Brees#1]

I have done a mock last night and one last week. My draft is late next month and also, I'm starting technical college so I'll be a bit less involved in overdrafting. But so far this is what I am analyzing.

JC and Lacy are falling to round 2. In my league, I expect the 10 people out of 12 to go RB first. I would assume Gurley, Bell, AP, Elliot are the first four. Then David Johnson, Martin, McCoy, Coleman the next four. Which means after that Lacy and Charles follow so I believe they will not be round 2 in the actual draft. The mocks are filled with people who think Lacy's a risk for round 1 and KC is going to have a RBBC(which is rubbish). I have picked Elliot/Bell, JC/Lacy, and Hyde/Forte the two mocks I did going RB-RB-RB first three rounds. The last mock I did not plan that, but Cooks was gone and saw I could get TY or Cobb in fourth. So went ahead and took Forte. In the last mock my RBs consisted of Bell, Lacy, Forte, Forsett, West(blurb pick over DWill), Starks. My three WRs being Hilton, Fitz, and White.

WRs appeared to be thin after round 9. But it's tricky to know who will be the break out number two receivers. And, the top three ranked are receivers which is very odd because I expect them to only be picked by one of two people leaving one(likely Julio) to see round 2. However it appears RB is BPA round 2.

 

[Brees#1]

Ahaha what?? First off I'd love something more than anecdotal evidence about young people drafting qbs and wrs first.

Secondly - you got rid of a kid because he drafted Jeffery, Green, Megatron?? They're good players! Wtf!?? Would love to hear why taking a WR in the first is awful.

Whether last year was a fluke or not if you have Antonio and OBJ with meh RBS you're gonna have a damn good team most likely.

I really hope you aren't putting money on any of these leagues you're in for your own sake.

No I got rid of him because he abused the waiver system with high waiver priority due to losing record and being dependent on his uncle who's been losing last couple of years and busy with school. He just was not a active player.

 

[Brees#1]

Ahaha what?? First off I'd love something more than anecdotal evidence about young people drafting qbs and wrs first.

Secondly - you got rid of a kid because he drafted Jeffery, Green, Megatron?? They're good players! Wtf!?? Would love to hear why taking a WR in the first is awful.

Whether last year was a fluke or not if you have Antonio and OBJ with meh RBS you're gonna have a damn good team most likely.

I really hope you aren't putting money on any of these leagues you're in for your own sake.

What did Antonio do week 16 last year? DWill got both TDs. Johnson had 40 points week 15 at Philadelphia. I would rather have good RBs.

 

[ehb5]

What did Antonio do week 16 last year? DWill got both TDs. Johnson had 40 points week 15 at Philadelphia. I would rather have good RBs.

Antonio had 13 for me in my championship game. Sure DWill had 38 for me but Julio had 38 for me too (and so did Reed). Sure David Johnson had 51 for me in that same league the week earlier but he wasn't even the highest scoring player on my team that week because Antonio had 52. Oh and Julio had 32 for me that week. (If you can't tell already, I ran through the playoffs with 3 straight blowouts). Also worth noting Freeman, Johnson, and DWill were all acquired dirt cheap or free. So basically you cherry picked the hell out of the examples you used and still didn't make a solid argument. I mean Antonio Brown and Julio combined for 135 (!!!) Points in weeks 15 and 16! Please tell me how focusing on those WRs hurt me.

 

[TREFF]

What did Antonio do week 16 last year? DWill got both TDs. Johnson had 40 points week 15 at Philadelphia. I would rather have good RBs.

So don't take the statistically best, most consistent WR in the first, becuase he didn't score a lot in week16, but by all means draft a backup RB becuase he scored 2 TD's in week 16?? .guess I'd better follow up my 1st round pick of DWILL with Mike Gilisle in the second. .he scored in week 16 as well.

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

One year I had Calvin Johnson, Josh Gordon, Antonio Brown, and AJ Green. I think I drafted a RB first too. Anyway, my team didn't even make the playoffs. So you won't see me drafting a WR in the first and probably even the second round. Good RBs are just too sparse to neglect the position in the first few rounds. Good fantasy WRs are almost always available off the waiver wire, but very few good RBs are.

 

[ehb5]

One year I had Calvin Johnson, Josh Gordon, Antonio Brown, and AJ Green. I think I drafted a RB first too. Anyway, my team didn't even make the playoffs. So you won't see me drafting a WR in the first and probably even the second round. Good RBs are just too sparse to neglect the position in the first few rounds. Good fantasy WRs are almost always available off the waiver wire, but very few good RBs are.

I don't understand this narrative that good wrs are just a dime a dozen on the waiver wire. You are much more likely to find a RB who gives you good production week in and week out than a wr on the waiver wire due to injuries. When bell gets hurt dwill comes in and puts up top 5 rb numbers. If AB gets hurt there's nobody who can replicate what he does. And idk what leagues people are playing in where there are good wrs on the waiver wire every week.

 

[Brees#1]

Antonio had 13 for me in my championship game. Sure DWill had 38 for me but Julio had 38 for me too (and so did Reed). Sure David Johnson had 51 for me in that same league the week earlier but he wasn't even the highest scoring player on my team that week because Antonio had 52. Oh and Julio had 32 for me that week. (If you can't tell already, I ran through the playoffs with 3 straight blowouts). Also worth noting Freeman, Johnson, and DWill were all acquired dirt cheap or free. So basically you cherry picked the hell out of the examples you used and still didn't make a solid argument. I mean Antonio Brown and Julio combined for 135 (!!!) Points in weeks 15 and 16! Please tell me how focusing on those WRs hurt me.

Yes they were picked up off FA but do you really think that RBs on run first teams are going to get hurt again like they did last year? I am a runningback person. I care about my style winning more than just winning.

 

[TREFF]

I don't understand this narrative that good wrs are just a dime a dozen on the waiver wire. You are much more likely to find a RB who gives you good production week in and week out than a wr on the waiver wire due to injuries. When bell gets hurt dwill comes in and puts up top 5 rb numbers. If AB gets hurt there's nobody who can replicate what he does. And idk what leagues people are playing in where there are good wrs on the waiver wire every week.

Well now there I'd disagree strongly, very few situations are like Bell/DWill, for the most part injuries create 2 and 3 headed RBBC where each is used in such a way that none are reliable fanatasy wise. Decent weekly production from waiver wire RB's is comparatively rare. Maybe 2-4 situations a year where a waiver wire pickup becomes a quality starter, and generally, in a competitive situation, you've gotta be high on the waiver priority to have a shot at getting those guys. Literally dozens where you can get quality, sustainable production from waver wire WR's, and often times you can grab them as few agents without even worrying about the waiver claim priority.

Much much easier to fill a hole at wide out than at RB...BUT, that in no way devalues the elite WR's

 

[TREFF]

Yes they were picked up off FA but do you really think that RBs on run first teams are going to get hurt again like they did last year? I am a runningback person. I care about my style winning more than just winning.

From here on, Brees shall be known as Sidney Dean. "Rather lose and look good than win"

Ive heard of and respect those who would rather life with dignity and respect rather than win dishonestly. .but never "style"

 

[Brees#1]

I don't understand this narrative that good wrs are just a dime a dozen on the waiver wire. You are much more likely to find a RB who gives you good production week in and week out than a wr on the waiver wire due to injuries. When bell gets hurt dwill comes in and puts up top 5 rb numbers. If AB gets hurt there's nobody who can replicate what he does. And idk what leagues people are playing in where there are good wrs on the waiver wire every week.

Last year Watkins, T Benjamin, Decker, Hurns, Snead, Floyd, that guy in Minnesota were all on FA and had Andrew Luck not been injured and playing with a bad line there would have been Moncrief or Dorsett having a chance to be a FA bargain.

Now in 2014, the FA receivers that contributed were John Brown, Sanu, Robinson(but got hurt), M Bryant. There were less RB options than WRs. In 2013, there was Jeffery, M Jones, TWill, C Patterson, Allen. For RBs, Ellington had his moments, Bernard as well, but Moreno, J Bell, Blount, Stacy were the only major contributors.


If JC, Bell, Forsett, McCoy, Elliot, David Johnson, Ingram, Martin(maybe) are not getting hurt then the other backup options to injuries don't have a bigger opportunity.

 

[Brees#1]

I don't understand this. How am I going to win more with Brown and Murray/Ingram than with Bell and Nelson/Green? The latter consists of two high volumes.