Ongoing NHL thread - Part III

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Ugh, and of course I wrote both sets of numbers backwards. The playoff numbers are the lower ones and the non-playoff are the higher ones. Sorry for the confusion.

I assumed it pretty quickly lol

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

If you think that my post was about comparing Phil Kessel and Jonathan Toews then you completely missed the point. But I don't think that you actually think that.

Then why else mention him??

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Does that player exist? A player on a scoring line who doesn't perform better against worse teams?

Can you look that up? I'd be willing to make a bet that player doesn't exist. There is, after all, a reason worse teams are worse.

I could see bottom six guys doing that, because there's less TOI and less scoring density over which the numbers could properly even out, but not the guys who get lots of shifts and lots of points.

I did it manually, but I just crunched Ovie's quickly and he's got 1.00 PPG against non-playoff teams and 0.93 PPG against playoff teams. Lower, but a minimal dropoff compared to a 0.24 PPG difference.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Then why else mention him??

The point was that looking at small, specific splits like that isn't a good way to draw/prove conclusions about players. So I looked at a player that I knew you had different conclusions about, and it turned out he had even wider splits. I don't know the full list of guys that you think turn it up a notch in important games, so I went with one that I knew.

 

[Center Ice]

I did it manually, but I just crunched Ovie's quickly and he's got 1.00 PPG against non-playoff teams and 0.93 PPG against playoff teams. Lower, but a minimal dropoff compared to a 0.24 PPG difference.

Hey Danny, if you're looking for a new HC you can have ours, he sucks!!!!!

 

[DragonfromTO]

The point was that looking at small, specific splits like that isn't a good way to draw/prove conclusions about players. So I looked at a player that I knew you had different conclusions about, and it turned out he had even wider splits. I don't know the full list of guys that you think turn it up a notch in important games, so I went with one that I knew.

Basically what I'm saying is that the point I was making wasn't about the players but about the analysis.

 

[dare2be]

and that teams have better records against teams who win less? I mean, this seems pretty obvious

Nope, but to be a contender you have to at least win some of those games, especially down the stretch as a playoff bubble team. Last year the Pens backed into the playoffs and this year it seems the Pens are following that same blueprint (3-6 in the last month, 1-5 in the last 3 weeks)

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

A few others:

Patrick Kane: 1.47 PPG against non-playoff teams, 1.26 PPG against playoff teams, .21 difference

Jamie Benn: 1.03 PPG against non-playoff teams, 1.15 PPG against playoff teams, -.11 difference (that isn't a mistake)

Johnny Gaudreau: 1.04 PPG against non-playoff teams, 1.00 PPG against playoff teams, .04 difference

So against the top wingers, the only guy with a gulf in points against playoff/non-playoff teams comparable to Kessel is Patrick Kane, who is scoring 1.26 PPG against playoff teams.

I think you can draw at least some conclusion here about play against top opposition.

 

[dash]

I wish Johnny Hockey would start putting on points on the road like he does at the Saddledome...

 

[pixburgher66]

2 on 2 rush with speed, and Lundqvist, screaming at the ref, just knocks the net off the moorings. Yeah, okay Hank. Should be more than 2 minutes, because that's ridiculous.

 

[pixburgher66]

Not since Patty Roy have I seen such petulance.

 

[Darkstone42]

In rugby referees can send players to the sin bin for intentionally breaking a rule in order to slow the pace of the game while the opponent is on the attack. The normal cost of the infraction is applied, plus an extra cost of losing that player for 10 minutes.

Throwing the net off the moorings that obviously intentionally should probably be both the 2-minute penalty for delay-of-game it is, plus and additional cost, perhaps an automatic double-minor. Though, was it even a penalty before that guy in the AHL did it? So progress, I guess.

 

[Darkstone42]

On that note, I'd consider adding an extra penalty for really obvious intentional trips and hooks and slashes, as well. I mean, it's tough to call intent there, but if it's really clear, go for it.

Though that's most common on breakaways, so maybe award both a penalty shot and a powerplay in those cases.

 

[Darkstone42]

You get what you deserve, Hank.



I get salty over cynical play.

 

[Darkstone42]

There's a point for Kessel against a playoff team, by the way.

 

[pixburgher66]

On that note, I'd consider adding an extra penalty for really obvious intentional trips and hooks and slashes, as well. I mean, it's tough to call intent there, but if it's really clear, go for it.

Though that's most common on breakaways, so maybe award both a penalty shot and a powerplay in those cases.

I think what Hank did should be a penalty shot. I also think teams should be allowed to elect PP or PS. I kinda agree with the idea of getting both, but that probably never happens. Regardless, the guy showed up a ref right to his face for reasons I'm still not sure of, seeing as he was taken out by his own man. Could've gotten two for delay and two for unsportsmanlike. Mostly, I just think something so pathetic should get more than two...because for any skater that does something similar they probably get tossed. If he was shaken up, I get wanting a whistle...but that's when you stay down.

 

[dash]

Regardless, the guy showed up a ref right to his face

20 game suspension. Oh showed, not shoved nevermind

 

[pixburgher66]

20 game suspension. Oh showed, not shoved nevermind

With how sensitive refs have been since then, I wouldn't be shocked. Five games, $5k, for hurt feelings.

 

[esls79]

Oilers have been pretty respectable since removing Schultz from their lineup. Granted it's March and Oilers games in March are meaningless except in the moral victory column but still.

 

[DragonfromTO]

There's a point for Kessel against a playoff team, by the way.

So if he goes pointless against Calgary on Saturday the 0.24 differential being discussed earlier will drop to 0.16, cut by almost a third (it's more like 30% I think but I'll be damned if I'm gonna type more than 2 decimal places) because of only 2 games. And relatively normal games too, not a 5 or 6 point night or anything. I think that simple detail that anyone can understand no matter their math training or aptitude probably says a lot about the statistical significance of the difference.