What was Cincy thinking re: Andy Dalton contract?

[RobToxin]

Dalton is not worth the time or the monetary commitment.

Has he ever gotten past the first round of the playoffs?

Are you aware of how many years it took Peyton Manning to get past the first round of the playoffs?

1998: Missed playoffs.
1999: One-and-done.
2000: One-and-done.
2001: Missed playoffs.
2002: One-and-done.
2003: Won first ever playoff game.

 

[jarntt]

6 years / 96 million (17 million guaranteed) with 19 million in escalators based solely on playoff goals.

Plus, the team can cut him after 2 seasons if he is still not winning playoff games with little hit to the cap, meaning that AJ McCarron has had two full seasons to learn the playbook, and practice against the Bengals top 5 defense including their stable of 1st round CB's (Newman, Hall, Jones, Kirkpatrick, Dennard and Nelson).

From what I was reading online, forget where it was at, the cap is expected to potentially double within the next 3 seasons, which means if Dalton earns this contract, his contract will be grossly underpaid.

Bengals management made a great sign even if Dalton doesn't win another playoff game, because after two seasons, they can let him go and start with McCarron, and they still have plenty of money to resign AJ Green and Vonteze Burfict to long term contracts.

The cap doubling in 3 years??? I don't think you are going to locate that link again...

 

[jarntt]

Are you aware of how many years it took Peyton Manning to get past the first round of the playoffs?

1998: Missed playoffs.
1999: One-and-done.
2000: One-and-done.
2001: Missed playoffs.
2002: One-and-done.
2003: Won first ever playoff game.

Correct. The argument of playoff wins isn't fair. It's a team game and he hasn't been around that long. However the argument that he isn't very good is valid IMO...

 

[cdumler7]

The cap doubling in 3 years??? I don't think you are going to locate that link again...

From what I have heard they are expecting over the next at least 2-years that the Cap will go up somewhere between $10-15 million each year. Doubling it is asking quite a bit and if that was the case I think you would see some of these contracts just exploding with back-loaded deals more than we have. Yes some of these guys are getting paid more than what the position was being paid 5-years ago but that is expected with the Cap going up. The contracts are not going up with the idea that the Cap is going up as much as double. They look more like a 10% increase over the next 2-years or so.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Why does everyone act like Dalton is an aged veteran. Everyone seems to forget that he has only played in the NFL for 3 seasons... Let me say that again... 3 SEASONS... Don't give me that "russell wilson did it" crap. Nothing against RW, he is going to be a good QB as well. But it's still quite the accomplishment to have been in the playoffs for the first 3 seasons of your career. He definitely has room to improve.

Plus, it is only for 2 years anyways, and if he has not started winning in the playoffs and earning his contract with escalators, the Bengals can cut him with little cap penalty allowing them to have nearly a full cap to work with even after the cut.

With the salary cap expected to nearly double in the next 3 years, if Dalton starts winning playoff games this contract will be an absolute drop in the bucket.

Also, with how cap friendly this contract is, the Bengals can easily sign AJ Green and Burfict to long term contracts keeping the young core of talent together on this team.

Plus, his stats have been going up each of the past 3 seasons, he just needs to get over that playoff hump.

2011| 3398 yards / 6.6 AVG / 20 TD's / 80.4 QBR
2012| 3669 yards / 6.9 AVG / 27 TD's / 87.4 QBR
2013| 4293 yards / 7.3 AVG / 33 TD's / 88.8 QBR

30 wins in 3 seasons to start his career, and 3 straight playoff appearances. Granted, he has laid eggs in the playoffs, but how was Manning's playoff record? How about Marino? What about Matt Ryan? Nice thing about Dalton, he just turned 26 and has only been in the league for 3 years and improved each year. This gives the Bengals a chance to see if he can get over that hump for 2 more years, while not killing them in the cap if they want to get rid of him and still be able to afford their other star players in Green and Burfict.

 

[Money]

Correct. The argument of playoff wins isn't fair. It's a team game and he hasn't been around that long. However the argument that he isn't very good is valid IMO...

I also love how people say it's a team game when discussing wins and losses...like it's not a team game when discussing stats. Apparently QBs get those all by themselves.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

From what I have heard they are expecting over the next at least 2-years that the Cap will go up somewhere between $10-15 million each year. Doubling it is asking quite a bit and if that was the case I think you would see some of these contracts just exploding with back-loaded deals more than we have. Yes some of these guys are getting paid more than what the position was being paid 5-years ago but that is expected with the Cap going up. The contracts are not going up with the idea that the Cap is going up as much as double. They look more like a 10% increase over the next 2-years or so.

Yeah, when I read it, I was was flabbergasted. I think I had read it on Twitter, but not 100% sure anymore, the numbers just stuck in my head, so I can't vouch for the validity of the source. Just reporting what I had seen if they are true, wow!

 

[purguy12]

All I have to say Im happy with my 49ers and Kaepernick Deal. At least my QB has been to a Super bowl and 2 NFC championship games.

 

[FaCe-LeE-uS]

Plus, his stats have been going up each of the past 3 seasons, he just needs to get over that playoff hump.

2011| 3398 yards / 6.6 AVG / 20 TD's / 80.4 QBR
2012| 3669 yards / 6.9 AVG / 27 TD's / 87.4 QBR
2013| 4293 yards / 7.3 AVG / 33 TD's / 88.8 QBR

This makes me want to draft him in fantasy football...

But you are right. His only downfall will be the playoff hump if it defeats him again. Kudos to Cincy's FO for putting this deal together like they did. It could pay off huge if he starts to play better in the postseason. And like you said, it makes it a lot easier to sign Green & Burfict. Something tells me that Dalton was probably irritated by the contract, but he certainly didn't put himself in a commanding position to negotiate his contract.

 

[MHSL82]

Flacco has been money in the postseason since 2010. That is why he got paid. He's very similar to Eli. Both are very streaky regular season QBs who show up when it counts most.

Flacco, as described above, is the opposite of Dalton, consistent in the regular season and hasn't shown up when it counts the most - however, I am not as much of a stickler to the past as some. Dalton could advance this year or he could have a great playoff game in a loss. It doesn't have to be a disappointment because the years before were.

 

[Sharkinva]

This makes me want to draft him in fantasy football...

But you are right. His only downfall will be the playoff hump if it defeats him again. Kudos to Cincy's FO for putting this deal together like they did. It could pay off huge if he starts to play better in the postseason. And like you said, it makes it a lot easier to sign Green & Burfict. Something tells me that Dalton was probably irritated by the contract, but he certainly didn't put himself in a commanding position to negotiate his contract.

If he was irratated by getting $22 million in guaranteed money, and a total possible value of $115 million I would have let him walk. And Im actually a fan of the kid. Its a fair deal for both sides. the Bengals have him locked up if he performs, and they wont be doing the cap hell dance over this contract for the next five years. Im hoping this is the direction all teams will take in signing their QBs long term. Because the Manning, Romo and Flacco deals had the potential of screwing things for every one.

 

[Lemon Harang Pie]

Flacco has been money in the postseason since 2010. That is why he got paid. He's very similar to Eli. Both are very streaky regular season QBs who show up when it counts most.

That's what happens when you have very, very small sample sizes.

Every couple of years there are QB's "who show up when it counts most" until they don't and then their post season stats start to resemble their regular season stats.

 

[dirtboy068]

its a basic NFL bullshit contract.. its basically only a 2 year 25 million contract.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Uh Bengals fans I'm sorry but if you think cutting Dalton in year 3 and starting McCarron is viable you're out of your mind. McCarron will amount to nothing in the NFL.

 

[Dolemite censored]

He's a young ascending QB and this deal makes good sense.

He can't win against playoff caliber defenses.

End of story.

 

[SonnyCID]

A decade ago Dalton's first 3 years would have been considered impressive.

 

[SteelersPride]

I can't say 100% but my thought here is Mike Brown is content with having a pretty good team and didn't want to upset the apple cart...pretty good gets you a decent gate every year and gives fans "hope", but the smart fans know this guy is about at his ceiling...not a bad QB, but doubtful he will ever bring a title.

hey flacco won one

 

[NinerSickness]

This is literally the dumbest contract ever signed. It's better to have an absolutely horrible QB than a QB who's just good enough to lose in the playoffs.

And for those who point to Flacco:

Flacco >>>>> Dalton. Any Dalton sucks. He has as much talent around him as Kaepernick to ensure he looks like he's a good QB.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

If Dalton gets past the first two years, it probably means he is doing pretty well, just saying.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

He can't win against playoff caliber defenses.

End of story.

Top 5 defenses are really hard to beat in general. How well did teams opposing the Bengals #3 ranked defense do? How were the QB's? I mean hell, the Bengals were still missing Geno Atkins half the year, lost Hall their #1 CB for half the season or more, and they lost their starting SAM backer for the entire season in preseason. They lost three very important pieces to their defense, still was ranked #3 in the NFL in defense. So how did opposing QB's do against them? Only QB I know who did anything of real value was Andrew Luck. Even then, it was a 42-28 loss, and they were forced to pass the entire second half racking up the yards against mostly a soft defense forcing them to take what they get underneath, and prevent against the big play.

It is pretty damn hard to beat top 5 defenses. I am not saying Dalton is always decent against great defenses, but you can maybe find a handful of games where he has beat really good defenses and had a pretty dang good game as well. He is capable, but he has to realize it at the right time. Still a very cap friendly deal that is all upside for management, no drawbacks. Bengals are finally doing things the right way from business management, to contracts, to the draft, gathering depth and talent and finding the right coaches and teachers to get the most out of their players.

According to early camp reports, Dalton looks even better this year so far under Hue Jackson's new offense, and has had days where he has completed 17 of 19 passes for 200 and that on the heels of a day where he was 16 of 19. That is looking pretty good considering how good the Bengals defense is that he is playing against each day in practice.