Proof that ADP is Garbage

[wilwhite]

I'll do this at points per games played, to limit the effect of injuries.

The top performing lineup for 2013 would have given you 156.5 FF pts per week:

QB - Peyton (32.7 FF pts per game - at 6-pts per passing TD)
RB - Charles (19.2)
RB - McCoy (17.3)
Flex - Forte (16.4)
WR - Gordon (16.1)
WR: Megatron (15.6)
TE - Graham (13.6)
K - Gostkowski (10.5)
DST - Seahawks (16.5)

(of course you would have had to do something else at WR for the first two weeks)

While taking the top ADP players for each position would have only given you 126.4:

QB: Rodgers (22.6)
RB: AP (14.5)
RB: Martin (9.3)
Flex: Foster (10.8)
WR: Megatron (15.6)
WR: AJ Green (13.0)
TE: Graham (13.6)
K: Gostkowski (10.5)
DST: Seahawks (16.5)

Total: 126.4

Remember I'm giving ADP a break by not factoring in games missed.

That's a big gap.

Could you have actually drafted a team that vastly outperformed a cherry-picked ADP team? Well, here's an ideal draft, feasible in almost any 12-team league from the first half of the draft, that would have given you 146.5 FF points per week.

1st: RB Charles (19.2)
2nd: QB Peyton (32.7)
3rd: WR Antonio Brown (12.3)
4th: TE Vernon Davis (10.7)
5th: RB Lacy (13.7)
6th: Flex Moreno (14.7)
7th: DST Seahawks (16.5)
8th: WR Gordon (16.1)
Whenever: Gostkowski (10.5)

Okay, so with hindsight you could have drafted a much better team in an actual 12-team draft than All Top-ADP, but how does ADP stack up against actual FF teams form last year?

Well, the best teams in two 12-team leagues I was in with that same scoring had weekly averages of 114.0 and 115.3.

So to recap:

Best possible fixed lineup: 156.5 FF pts per week
Best actually draftable lineup: 146.5
Cherry-picked ADP: 126.4
Good actual FF team: 115.3

Remember the good actual FF team is in a 12-team draft, while the Cherry-picked ADP team is in a one-team draft.

Not only that, in reality the Cherry-picked ADP per-week score would have been lower, because the waiver wire guys used to fill in for Rodgers, Martin and Foster would have had lower PPG.

In a nutshell: don't laugh at anyone who is ignoring ADP. (At least not until mid-season.) They could easily be building a team that would kick an All Top-ADP team's ass all day long.

Anybody want to defend ADP? I gotta be off here somewhere because this is just nuts.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I'll do this at points per games played, to limit the effect of injuries.

The top performing lineup for 2013 would have given you 156.5 FF pts per week:

QB - Peyton (32.7 FF pts per game - at 6-pts per passing TD)
RB - Charles (19.2)
RB - McCoy (17.3)
Flex - Forte (16.4)
WR - Gordon (16.1)
WR: Megatron (15.6)
TE - Graham (13.6)
K - Gostkowski (10.5)
DST - Seahawks (16.5)

(of course you would have had to do something else at WR for the first two weeks)

While taking the top ADP players for each position would have only given you 126.4:

QB: Rodgers (22.6)
RB: AP (14.5)
RB: Martin (9.3)
Flex: Foster (10.8)
WR: Megatron (15.6)
WR: AJ Green (13.0)
TE: Graham (13.6)
K: Gostkowski (10.5)
DST: Seahawks (16.5)

Total: 126.4

Remember I'm giving ADP a break by not factoring in games missed.

That's a big gap.

Could you have actually drafted a team that vastly outperformed a cherry-picked ADP team? Well, here's an ideal draft, feasible in almost any 12-team league from the first half of the draft, that would have given you 146.5 FF points per week.

1st: RB Charles (19.2)
2nd: QB Peyton (32.7)
3rd: WR Antonio Brown (12.3)
4th: TE Vernon Davis (10.7)
5th: RB Lacy (13.7)
6th: Flex Moreno (14.7)
7th: DST Seahawks (16.5)
8th: WR Gordon (16.1)
Whenever: Gostkowski (10.5)

Okay, so with hindsight you could have drafted a much better team in an actual 12-team draft than All Top-ADP, but how does ADP stack up against actual FF teams form last year?

Well, the best teams in two 12-team leagues I was in with that same scoring had weekly averages of 114.0 and 115.3.

So to recap:

Best possible fixed lineup: 156.5 FF pts per week
Best actually draftable lineup: 146.5
Cherry-picked ADP: 126.4
Good actual FF team: 115.3

Remember the good actual FF team is in a 12-team draft, while the Cherry-picked ADP team is in a one-team draft.

Not only that, in reality the Cherry-picked ADP per-week score would have been lower, because the waiver wire guys used to fill in for Rodgers, Martin and Foster would have had lower PPG.

In a nutshell: don't laugh at anyone who is ignoring ADP. (At least not until mid-season.) They could easily be building a team that would kick an All Top-ADP team's ass all day long.

Anybody want to defend ADP? I gotta be off here somewhere because this is just nuts.

I think we would all agree that strictly following ADP with no flexibility is not an ideal strategy, but you should still take ADP into account just simply because maybe you can get that player you want one round later...

 

[Xponentialchaos]

I'll defend ADP.

It looks like your stats are suggesting that it's possible to beat out the ADP drafting. However, you're comparing a drafting philosophy against hindsight which is not actually practical. All this is proving is that ADP is not perfect.

When a person is laughed at for ignoring the ADP and makes a crazy pick, I contend that this person is much more likely to be incorrect than they are correct. Showing that they MIGHT be correct doesn't prove that ADP is garbage.

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

So what you're saying is no one can predict who is going to perform well during the season with 100% accuracy? That's good to know I guess?

 

[TREFF]

While I'm not defending ADP... taking it into account gives you a general idea on who you'll need to reach for and who you can wait on as it concerns your "break outs".

 

[Xponentialchaos]

Furthermore, I understand that you're not factoring in injuries. But I'm under the impression that you're not adjusting for waiver-wire transitions or making lineup changes.

For example, if Doug Martin was fully healthy the entire season and you extrapolated those kinds of numbers across the entire season, that owner would have still made some kind of adjustment, whether it would be on the waiver wire or promoting someone from the bench. Your two good teams, however, likely did make changes throughout the season.

 

[wilwhite]

It looks like your stats are suggesting that it's possible to beat out the ADP drafting. However, you're comparing a drafting philosophy against hindsight which is not actually practical. All this is proving is that ADP is not perfect.

Okay, forget the "ideal" draft. What about this:

Cherry-picked ADP: 126.4
Good actual FF team: 115.3

That wasn't hindsight, that was somebody drafting against 11 other owners. How come they're even in the same ballpark as a team composed of top ADP guys at each position? That shouldn't be possible.

 

[Xponentialchaos]

Blackjack analogy.

You're sitting on an 18 and the dealer has a 7. You obviously stay because you know that your odds of winning are better if you stay than if you hit.

Dealer flips a 9 and then a 3.

You have 18, Dealer has 19. You lose.

Your friend tells you "See that? Math is stupid. You should have hit! You would have gotten a 21 and most likely would have won. Therefore math is garbage."

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ADP isn't going to be correct all the time. However, if you drastically deviate from this, you're much more likely to hurt yourself than help yourself. Sure, every once in a while, you may strike gold with these crazy moves. You may hit on an 18 and get a 3. Statistically, it WILL happen. But for every one time you hit gold, you will bust much more often.

 

[Davis_Mike]

ADP should always be used as a basic guideline. Your league scoring setup, positional need & ADP should all be taken into account when drafting.

Your basic premise is hampered by the fact that most of the positional leaders in scoring were picked within a few picks of the actual ADP for the top guy at his position. At that point it comes down personal preference.

 

[wilwhite]

Playing the whole season at that rate, Martin would have been the #19 RB - it's not like Jennings or Ellington would have been a meaningful upgrade.

 

[Xponentialchaos]

Okay, forget the "ideal" draft. What about this:



That wasn't hindsight, that was somebody drafting against 11 other owners. How come they're even in the same ballpark as a team composed of top ADP guys at each position? That shouldn't be possible.

One made adjustments while the other one did not.

And your good teams probably weren't far off from ADP anyway.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

to be fair, even the experts say that ADP is not the way to go... they endorse the tier system!!!

 

[Xponentialchaos]

Playing the whole season at that rate, Martin would have been the #19 RB - it's not like Jennings or Ellington would have been a meaningful upgrade.

Can you post your starting lineup prior to the draft?

My point is that you should be evaluating them on the same criteria. You're taking the points per game for the best starting ADP lineup. And unless I'm interpreting this incorrectly, you're not doing the same for your actual drafted teams.

 

[Davis_Mike]

to be fair, even the experts say that ADP is not the way to go... they endorse the tier system!!!

I use a tiered system that still incorporates ADP.

 

[Xponentialchaos]

Can you post your starting lineup after the draft?

My point is that you should be evaluating them on the same criteria. You're taking the points per game for the best starting ADP lineup. And unless I'm interpreting this incorrectly, you're not doing the same for your actual drafted teams.

Fixed.

 

[The Foot]

It has always been my philosophy or should i say I have used the philosophy of never trusting ADP. I have no problem as you all probably know going against and ADP.

 

[wilwhite]

Okay - this should put the nail in the coffin for ADP (as far as RBs are concerned):

Comparing the top 36 ADP RBs and their actual performance (capping actual performance at 40th-best so guys like Martin and Bradshaw don't overinflate all the numbers), they ended up off by, on average, 12.36 spots.

Doing the same thing but using alphabetical order instead of ADP (i.e. Montee Ball #1, Le'Veon Bell #2, Gio Bernard #3...), they're off by, on average, 12.75 spots.

Chart below.

I concede that ADP is marginally better than alphabetical order.

 

[Bandit]

I think this whole ADP debate is missing the point. Nobody uses ADP as a list for their draft. At least nobody I know. You should use ADP as an indicator of when certain guys are getting drafted. If you love Toby Gerhart this year and think he's going to finish the year as a top 10 running back, that doesn't mean you draft him in the first round. You draft him as late as you know you can still get him. You use his ADP to get a ballpark for what round he is getting drafted in and then make sure you draft him one round earlier. Drafting is about getting the best players for the best value. Why draft him with the 11th pick of the 1st round when it is guaranteed that he will be there in the 4th round with the 38th pick. You are gaining the value of your first round pick by using ADP to not draft him until the 4th round.

 

[wilwhite]

ADP has been batted around here and there, but I think I may have been responding to the tangent that appeared on your great Suicide B Rankings thread, specifically this, from Joe:

That said, I still lean towards Bandit's way of thinking. If an owner is deviating from the ADP, then the owner is really deviating from the BPA (best player available). That's their choice. C'est la vie.

And even on this thread, Xpo said:

ADP isn't going to be correct all the time. However, if you drastically deviate from this, you're much more likely to hurt yourself than help yourself.

Which reminds me to check those top teams against ADP....

 

[Xponentialchaos]

Very first line in this thread:

"I'll do this at points per games played, to limit the effect of injuries."

Now we're not limiting the effect of injuries? I don't get it. There is an element of randomness when it comes to injuries, just as there is an element of randomness when it comes to any arbitrary ordering system like alphabetical order.

I'm done for now though. Believe what you want.