Proof that ADP is Garbage

[leftypower]

He had 2 games before the trade and one was a team who looked good the first two weeks against the run and a team who could. Its not Richardson's fault his OC cannot understand to get him involved in the passing game. When the browns had nothing else ravens could put 8 in the box. So could Miami and thats what they did. But only a decent defense could do something like that. Ravens were already good against the run(except for Lacy but packers had too much) and dolphins game plan was to stop TRich. You can't expect to have a RBBC and Andrew Luck running as well and getting his and expect TRich to produce. This is what I hate about football now is the RBBC, it is going to ruin the game soon. Backs use to find their own holes as the game goes on, now its about the OL and knowing when to go. Idk, some backs may have some mental issues with stuff like this. It can happen in intense moments like football. Football really is violent, and is not suppose to be easy for runningbacks. They can't always find holes and some OCs don't know when to run the ball. This RBBC is also for two reasons.........health and trickery. It isn't working. Injuries are part of the game and if I am not mistaken, last year's playoff teams in the NFC three division winners had starting backs, the other got lucky with a defensive year against soft teams and the wild cards one had a starting back and the other had Drew Brees. In the AFC one had Brady, the other had another good defense in the bengals, one had no competition in their division, and the other had Moreno and then Ball along with Manning. The wild cards had JC and Matthews. RBBC does not win enough games.

With so many words to justify, I think you should take him in the first round. ..... trust me, he'll be there for you.

 

[TREFF]

With so many words to justify, I think you should take him in the first round. ..... trust me, he'll be there for you.

 

[averagejoe]

To Mock or Not to Mock?

I still stand by what I said earlier. I think most view mock drafts as good practice to think in a fast-paced environment. But many in the FF community may not put much stock in a mock.

Looked at one ADP site which bases it's rankings on mock drafts. Just today their rankings are based on about 1000 mocks! Here is a list of players that were drafted in the first round (since this site provides a high and low along with the average).

First Overall - McCoy, Charles, Peterson, Forte, Megatron, Peyton, Brees, Graham, Lacy, Lynch
As High as 2nd Overall - Demaryius, Monte Ball, Rodgers
As High as 3rd Overall - A.J., Dez
As High as 4th Overall - Foster, LeVeon, Giovani, Morris, Keenan Allen, Pitta
As High as 5th Overall - Murray, Seahawks, Manziel
As High as 6th - Gronk
7th - Julio, Doug Martin, Brady
8th - Marshall
10th - Jordy, Julius Thomas
11th - Stacey
12th - Luck, Antonio Brown, Reggie Bush

 

[wilwhite]

I can see someone going crazy with Manziel, thinking he's just the bee's knees. But Pitta at 4th overall?

That's the thing with mocks. Somebody might be trying out a strategy where they only draft guys who start with P.

 

[tlance]

I still stand by what I said earlier. I think most view mock drafts as good practice to think in a fast-paced environment. But many in the FF community may not put much stock in a mock.

Looked at one ADP site which bases it's rankings on mock drafts. Just today their rankings are based on about 1000 mocks! Here is a list of players that were drafted in the first round (since this site provides a high and low along with the average).

First Overall - McCoy, Charles, Peterson, Forte, Megatron, Peyton, Brees, Graham, Lacy, Lynch
As High as 2nd Overall - Demaryius, Monte Ball, Rodgers
As High as 3rd Overall - A.J., Dez
As High as 4th Overall - Foster, LeVeon, Giovani, Morris, Keenan Allen, Pitta
As High as 5th Overall - Murray, Seahawks, Manziel
As High as 6th - Gronk
7th - Julio, Doug Martin, Brady
8th - Marshall
10th - Jordy, Julius Thomas
11th - Stacey
12th - Luck, Antonio Brown, Reggie Bush

Any 1 mock won't tell you a thing, but the average rank from a thousand mocks should be pretty close.

I still prefer data from actual drafts, but those averages are helpful.

Going back to the Peyton Manning example, if you had your crystal ball and knew 100% that Manning was going to break every record last year, taking him in the first round would still have been a reach pick because you could have easily gotten him in the 2nd. Knowledge of ADP helps you maximize the talent on your roster.

 

[wilwhite]

That's a great point, Tlance.

Going a bit deeper, though, ADP is an average but doesn't tell you variability - but you can find it, sort of. According to FF calculator for last year, Peyton, for instance with his 3.08 ADP, went anywhere from the second overall pick to the early fifth round. Fitz, with a similar ADP (3.05), never went in the first round and was always gone by the middle of the fourth.

Unfortunately they don't give standard of deviation. In theory Peyton could have gone in the first in half the drafts and in the fifth in half the drafts - or in the third in all drafts but two.

In a real-life example, LeVeon Bell - prior to his injury - had an ADP of 6.12 last year. In the MBBRL A League (the day before the injury), Sam took him at 3.01. Of course he saw me take him in the early 6th in the Suicide League and his stock was rising, so he obviously thought Le'Veon might not make it back to him in the late fourth and was probably right.