Proof that ADP is Garbage

[TREFF]

The kicker comment was a hyperbole.

I think Bandit hit the nail on the head. ADP is a guide, not a rule. And while I appreciate all of the detail, research and reasoning behind your presentation, there is a glaring flaw in your argument. And that is:

The FF team with the most fantasy points does NOT always win the league championship.
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tlance won the KOTF league, but was only 3rd in scoring (out of 12). Wil won the Suicide league, but was also 3rd in scoring (out of 12). In another one of my leagues, the league champ was 2nd in scoring (out of 12). And in a fourth league, the league champion was actually 6th in scoring (out of 12).

So having the best-possible, most optimal scoring squad does not guarantee victory.

I've been the highest scoring team twice and MISSED THE PLAYOFFS!!! I've seen the lowest scoring team sneak in, have two hot weeks and steal the title... This couldn't be more accurate Joe.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

Well I might be a little late here but I do use ADP as a guide to see where the guys are trending (like a few have mentioned before) and I would say most do. Gotta have an idea on where some of your sleepers/handcuffs are going to be drafted. Not too into drafting handcuffs (Foster/Tate has been about it). In almost all leagues (not our 3 though for sure) you're gonna have guys going strictly off of ADP and you can use that as an advantage provided your rankings aren't too similar to ADP (haven't finished mine but I can already tell they are not too close).

 

[tlance]

Well, my point wasn't about most points winning championships, but about ADP not having much to do with player value.

(That All-ADP squad incidentally didn't do much in Week 16.)

Here is where I disagree.

ADP is the best way to measure a player's value before the season starts. It is how you can determine if player A for player B is a fair deal straight up, or if one side needs to throw in a kicker to make it right.

I think what Wil is suggesting is that ADP is not a great predictor of production. I agree with that statement.

Still though, if you had picked Eddie Lacy in round 1 ahead of Spiller and Richardson, you would have been correct, but that does not make it a good value pick.

 

[averagejoe]

Well, my point wasn't about most points winning championships, but about ADP not having much to do with player value.

(That All-ADP squad incidentally didn't do much in Week 16.)

And I get that. But part of my reasoning highlights the fact that while loosely following ADP as a reference, it will provide owners with a "competitive" team.

It was also mentioned a few posts back that ADP is only about 60% accurate. I agree. But that 60% applies to EVERY team, not just those that refer to ADP.

 

[tlance]

And I get that. But part of my reasoning highlights the fact that while loosely following ADP as a reference, it will provide owners with a "competitive" team.

It was also mentioned a few posts back that ADP is only about 60% accurate. I agree. But that 60% applies to EVERY team, not just those that refer to ADP.

I would say substantially less. You might have a 60% chance of hitting on your 1st round pick, but that 5th round player by ADP will either have a lower ceiling or higher odds of busting.

 

[Barilko]

I came in here to defend the payroll company I have been using for 15 years.

.......never mind.

Now that is funny...

 

[TKOSpikes]

So, how do you suggest drafting a guy like Michael Floyd?

I took him in the 4th in the suicide...I think he went in the 8th in S2. If I think he will out produce Welker and Garcon for example, why would I chance him falling because his ADP is the 6th? Any further difference in rounds/player value is too obvious, IMO, to "need" an ADP guide. Like I said, it ends up being a list of players.

 

[tlance]

So, how do you suggest drafting a guy like Michael Floyd?

I took him in the 4th in the suicide...I think he went in the 8th in S2. If I think he will out produce Welker and Garcon for example, why would I chance him falling because his ADP is the 6th? Any further difference in rounds/player value is too obvious, IMO, to "need" an ADP guide. Like I said, it ends up being a list of players.

I am certainly not suggesting that anybody sticks to ADP.

It is a tool, nothing more. If Floyd is a 6th round pick by ADP, then I would try to snag him in the 5th if I really wanted him. If you reach too far, you negate the potential upside that he has by paying too high a price.

Anytime an owner gets too locked in on one specific player that he has to have, I feel like they are making a mistake unless they have the restraint to wait it out and get proper value on the pick. I was guilty of that last season with a couple players (Spiller and Vick) and it did not turn out well for either.

 

[Bandit]

I am certainly not suggesting that anybody sticks to ADP.

It is a tool, nothing more. If Floyd is a 6th round pick by ADP, then I would try to snag him in the 5th if I really wanted him. If you reach too far, you negate the potential upside that he has by paying too high a price.

Anytime an owner gets too locked in on one specific player that he has to have, I feel like they are making a mistake unless they have the restraint to wait it out and get proper value on the pick.

Couldn't have said it better myself, Agree 100%

 

[wilwhite]

ADP is the best way to measure a player's value before the season starts.

If by "best" you mean "impartial and specific" then yes.

If alphabetical order is just as good (for RBs anyway) impartial and specific is about all it has going for it.

 

[tlance]

If by "best" you mean "impartial and specific" then yes.

If alphabetical order is just as good (for RBs anyway) impartial and specific is about all it has going for it.

You are talking about production, I am talking about value.

Trent Richardson had far more value than Eddie Lacy for the first few weeks of the season. Then people started to realize TRich sucked and Lacy was a beast.

There is no approximation needed. If you tried to trade Lacy for Trich in week 1, the TRich owner would have laughed at you because TRich had a lot more value. Again, that is no guarantee of production as the TRich owner surely found out, but ADP absolutely is an indicator of value.

 

[wilwhite]

Ah, okay - value in the market sense. ADP is indeed an indicator of that, kinda by definition.

But unlike many market assets, FF players also have another value - how many points they just scored for your team in a weekly competition.

In the long run, that's the value that matters.

 

[Brees#1]

Well last year in my league the guy who won the championship scored as high as 160 in a week and almost 150 when he played me.

Week 1 when he scored the most
QB-Manning(60 points)
RB-Peterson(big game 20 points)
RB-Jackson
WR-Bowe
WR-Welker(20 points big game)
Flex-Jennings
TE-Cameron(a TD game at least)
DST-Steelers
K-Hauschka

Week 4 when he played me
QB-Manning(4 TDs)
RB-Peterson(2 TDs)
RB-Fred Jackson(TD)(the other Jackson was hurt)
WR-Welker(2 TDs)
WR-Jennings(2 TDs)
Flex-Cannot remember
TE-Cameron(big game, TD)
DST-Jets
K-Hauschka(11 points)

And week 13 this guy scored fourth most on the year with 149 against me(he scored 154 the next week)
QB-Kaepernick
RB-Forte(lots of yards)
RB-Bernard
WR-Green(TD)
WR-Jeffery(monster game, TD)
Flex-Decker(4 TDs)
TE-Fred Davis
DST-Carolina(SF on bench)
PK-Cannot remember)

Next week he replaced CK with McCown

Based on first guy
QB-round 3
RB-round 1
RB-round 2/round 10
WR-round 5
WR-round 4/FA
Flex-round 6
TE-round 8
DST-last few rounds/FA
K-round 12 or 13.

Second guy
QB-round 4
RB-round 2
RB-FA
WR-round 1
WR-round 7 or 8
Flex-round 5(traded Nelson for him before season)
TE-FA
DST-FA
PK-FA


Kind of shows that FA really does affect the team but solid starters help as the first guy had that in his favor.

 

[Brees#1]

You are talking about production, I am talking about value.

Trent Richardson had far more value than Eddie Lacy for the first few weeks of the season. Then people started to realize TRich sucked and Lacy was a beast.

There is no approximation needed. If you tried to trade Lacy for Trich in week 1, the TRich owner would have laughed at you because TRich had a lot more value. Again, that is no guarantee of production as the TRich owner surely found out, but ADP absolutely is an indicator of value.

But no one saw that trade coming with TRich either. If he stayed in Cleveland, he plays like he played last year because he would be one of the only offenses. In fact losing him may have helped Gordon make the plays he did. Cleveland had no backs and then TRich goes to a team where he is not going to get 20 carries a game and he proceeds to suck. Thats one reason to not draft RBs on teams who could deal him.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Wow.

Ah, T-Rich not getting the ball 20 times a fame had nothing to do with the other running backs on the Colts.

Wow.

 

[leftypower]

But no one saw that trade coming with TRich either. If he stayed in Cleveland, he plays like he played last year because he would be one of the only offenses. In fact losing him may have helped Gordon make the plays he did. Cleveland had no backs and then TRich goes to a team where he is not going to get 20 carries a game and he proceeds to suck. Thats one reason to not draft RBs on teams who could deal him.

I had him last year and he sucked with Cleveland for the first several games before the trade. Then he continued to sick with the Colts. .... bottomline, he sucked last year - - location had nothing to do with it.

 

[wilwhite]

TRich actually sucked the year before, too. When you suck near the goal line and with a bunch of touches, though, you can still rack up FF points.

 

[Bandit]

I'm sure we could do an entire thread on leagues that TRich owners got screwed in last year, or just a "TRich Sucks" thread, or maybe a "TRich is Poor" thread I like the sound of that better.

 

[Brees#1]

I had him last year and he sucked with Cleveland for the first several games before the trade. Then he continued to sick with the Colts. .... bottomline, he sucked last year - - location had nothing to do with it.

He had 2 games before the trade and one was a team who looked good the first two weeks against the run and a team who could. Its not Richardson's fault his OC cannot understand to get him involved in the passing game. When the browns had nothing else ravens could put 8 in the box. So could Miami and thats what they did. But only a decent defense could do something like that. Ravens were already good against the run(except for Lacy but packers had too much) and dolphins game plan was to stop TRich. You can't expect to have a RBBC and Andrew Luck running as well and getting his and expect TRich to produce. This is what I hate about football now is the RBBC, it is going to ruin the game soon. Backs use to find their own holes as the game goes on, now its about the OL and knowing when to go. Idk, some backs may have some mental issues with stuff like this. It can happen in intense moments like football. Football really is violent, and is not suppose to be easy for runningbacks. They can't always find holes and some OCs don't know when to run the ball. This RBBC is also for two reasons.........health and trickery. It isn't working. Injuries are part of the game and if I am not mistaken, last year's playoff teams in the NFC three division winners had starting backs, the other got lucky with a defensive year against soft teams and the wild cards one had a starting back and the other had Drew Brees. In the AFC one had Brady, the other had another good defense in the bengals, one had no competition in their division, and the other had Moreno and then Ball along with Manning. The wild cards had JC and Matthews. RBBC does not win enough games.

 

[Brees#1]

TRich actually sucked the year before, too. When you suck near the goal line and with a bunch of touches, though, you can still rack up FF points.

This should tell you not to draft him unless he is going to be a bellcow.