Proof that ADP is Garbage

[TKOSpikes]

ADP is an absolute joke. Other than having a vague outline of where someone might be drafted, or having a list in front of you, it serves no purpose besides kind of sort of ranking the players based on what they did last year.

First of all, ADP is a statistic taken from so many different kinds of leagues, and all mashed into one. (ESPN's ADP is different than Yahoo's, etc.). 10 team leagues, 12 team leagues, PPR, 6-point QB TD pass, flex, 3 WR, 2-QB, ....

Second, the higher the pick, it's more likely said player won't be there for your next pick, so you have to take him if you want him. Or the later the pick, the more fluctuated it can be (who can tell me with total certainty D-Jax will outscore Harvin? ...you can't)

And third, it's NEVER right, so how can not following it be wrong? I think to some extent, maybe even without knowing it, we all use the tier philosophy in the moment. If we like that player and there doesn't seem to be anyone left in his group, we take him.

 

[wilwhite]

My point is that you should be evaluating them on the same criteria. You're taking the points per game for the best starting ADP lineup. And unless I'm interpreting this incorrectly, you're not doing the same for your actual drafted teams.

That's a fair point... the team in question drafted:

QB: Brees (27.2 PPG)
RB: Charles (19.2)
RB: R. Bush (13.1)
Flex: Bradshaw (11.3)
WR: Fitz (9.3)
WR: Nelson (11.2)
TE: Witten (8.3)
K: Zeurlein (7.1)
DST: Bears (9.3)

Total: 116.0 - slightly better than he actually did over the season (as compared to 126.4 for the ADP all-stars).

By the way, that was Bandit's MBBRL B squad.

 

[averagejoe]

So following your argument, Wil, if ADP is pointless, it's okay to draft Matt Prater in the first round.

 

[TKOSpikes]

So following your argument, Wil, if ADP is pointless, it's okay to draft Matt Prater in the first round.

A kicker? ...you don't need ADP to tell you that. A Bronco who doesn't kick, but carries the Ball though, sure!

 

[Bandit]

That's a fair point... the team in question drafted:

QB: Brees (27.2 PPG)
RB: Charles (19.2)
RB: R. Bush (13.1)
Flex: Bradshaw (11.3)
WR: Fitz (9.3)
WR: Nelson (11.2)
TE: Witten (8.3)
K: Zeurlein (7.1)
DST: Bears (9.3)

Total: 116.0 - slightly better than he actually did over the season (as compared to 126.4 for the ADP all-stars).

By the way, that was Bandit's MBBRL B squad.

I believe I drafted Josh Gordon in that league last year also, though and I don't see him on the list there. I know he wasn't one of first slotted picks, but he was in my starting lineup each week. Gordon last year leads me to another thing ADP can be used for. Last year Gordon was suspended the first two weeks and it helped to know where he was getting drafted on average so you could know which round you could wait to get him in.

 

[TREFF]

So following your argument, Wil, if ADP is pointless, it's okay to draft Matt Prater in the first round.

:ss:

Lol

 

[wilwhite]

Well, if in your projections he'll outscore all the other kickers by 200 FF pts, absolutely. You'd be a fool not to, if there's a chance somebody else might realize the same thing.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Last year Gordon was suspended the first two weeks and it helped to know where he was getting drafted on average so you could know which round you could wait to get him in.

on the flip side, I think he was "averaging" the 9th round, so I thought I might grab the 49ers last year in round 7 and come back with Gordon in 8, but low and behold he was taken in the 7th right after my pick! (was that you Wil?) ...So it can get you in trouble too.

 

[TKOSpikes]

...or maybe it was averaging the 11th round at he was snatched in the 9th. either way, my point remains.

 

[averagejoe]

The kicker comment was a hyperbole.

I think Bandit hit the nail on the head. ADP is a guide, not a rule. And while I appreciate all of the detail, research and reasoning behind your presentation, there is a glaring flaw in your argument. And that is:

The FF team with the most fantasy points does NOT always win the league championship.
​

tlance won the KOTF league, but was only 3rd in scoring (out of 12). Wil won the Suicide league, but was also 3rd in scoring (out of 12). In another one of my leagues, the league champ was 2nd in scoring (out of 12). And in a fourth league, the league champion was actually 6th in scoring (out of 12).

So having the best-possible, most optimal scoring squad does not guarantee victory.

 

[broncosmitty]

That's always frustrated me in free standard leagues. Joined a league(finally allowed in) in '99 that bases "the winner" off overall money won. And there literally are dozens of ways to earn money. The "best" team always wins. But, in the NFL, the best doesn't, so my frustration is somewhat minimal.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

So having the best-possible, most optimal scoring squad does not guarantee victory.

I was in the championship game in 3 of my 4 money leagues last year, and was only the point leader in 1 of them, which did pan out to be a championship.
The overall points leader won another one, and I beat the overall points leader in the other. I can't remember who won the other league, I did not make the playoffs, mostly due to my weekly over-evaluation and lineup changes. Had several wins sitting on my bench in that one, including week 1, when I chose to start Cam Newton vs SEA (due to CAR being at home, and SEA having to travel across the country) in a 12-7 bore of game, instead of Eli vs the Cowboys and his 450yds and 4TDs. Other owner had Peyton and his ridiculous week 1 performance, which would have been awesome to beat.

OK, I ventured way off topic there, so to bring it back, the regular season points champ made it to the finals in 3 of my 4 leagues last year, and only won 1 of those championships.
So while I will whole heartedly agree that scoring the most does not = victory, it sure as hell doesn't hurt!

 

[wilwhite]

Well, my point wasn't about most points winning championships, but about ADP not having much to do with player value.

(That All-ADP squad incidentally didn't do much in Week 16.)

 

[leftypower]

Some good points made on both sides of the coin. The value of ADP is to give an idea of when the guys you may want will likely go on that particular site. Most average plaers are somewhat lazy and will follow the site they play on's rankings. Anyway, nothing in fantasy is a sure bet so to say it is totally useless is wrong. To say it can be relied upon for the best team is wrong.
As stated and proven many times over the years, 'experts' are only correct about 60% of the time. The most accurate each year hits around 65%. So, if you should happen to use the best info out there and your personal instincts push it to 70%, statistically, you'll still be wrong on 3 out of ten players drafted - - very good odds, but still leaves enough error (discounting injuries) to either win or lose.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Voice of reason Lefty... kind of makes me regret calling it "a joke".

 

[Barilko]

Wow great work as always Will of White...

Ill tell you i only use ADP as such

i think that i have gained a pretty good handle on which players in my leagues will be apt to use ADP to completely dictate their respective drafts...

and thus..

ill check out ADP and if and when a fellow owner is about to make a predictable ADP pick

and that so called ADP is some one i want then i may grab him depending on draft positions (obviously)

otherwise ill sit back and watch my fellow owners make there so called ADP predictable picks and thus i can see the future (within reason -not trying to be smug here) and draft accordingly...

in other words ill grab the player i want if the ADP tells me that predictable owner will take said player
or ill wait around and stock up elsewhere.


so thank you ADP...with that being said

it wont work with these MBBRL guys..

they are not so predicatable and are definately more insightful than my fellow Hockey loving Fantasy Footballers

 

[Barilko]

It has always been my philosophy or should i say I have used the philosophy of never trusting ADP. I have no problem as you all probably know going against and ADP.

Not You

 

[Barilko]

The kicker comment was a hyperbole.

I think Bandit hit the nail on the head. ADP is a guide, not a rule. And while I appreciate all of the detail, research and reasoning behind your presentation, there is a glaring flaw in your argument. And that is:

The FF team with the most fantasy points does NOT always win the league championship.
​

tlance won the KOTF league, but was only 3rd in scoring (out of 12). Wil won the Suicide league, but was also 3rd in scoring (out of 12). In another one of my leagues, the league champ was 2nd in scoring (out of 12). And in a fourth league, the league champion was actually 6th in scoring (out of 12).

So having the best-possible, most optimal scoring squad does not guarantee victory.

and ya some bum from Canada won the B and that kills all theories...

 

[R.J. MacReady]

I came in here to defend the payroll company I have been using for 15 years.

.......never mind.

 

[Kevin12773]

I came in here to defend the payroll company I have been using for 15 years.

.......never mind.

I was thinking the same thing!