Be careful if resigning Jefferson.

[nuraman00]

Jefferson is not going to be as productive after his new contract. Elton Brand and Jermaine O'Neal suddenly lost it one year. (Brand after his injury in 2008).

Jefferson is going to be the same. Early in his new contract, there's going to be a sharp decline. I don't think he has the game to keep it up.

His rebounding will probably fall first, then his scoring.

I'd do 4 years, $10M per year, but not more than that, and I'd hope the final year salary is 13M or less.

I would not give him 5 years.

It might make the team worse to go after younger but worse players, but I think it's better than being stuck with a large contract and declining productivity.


Ideally, they'd get someone like Josh Smith, who is better and I think will be more stable.

Remember the comments after Okur resigned? Someone posted "Memo is kind of lame now". That's where I see Jefferson headed, within 2 years. Because of his lack of mobility, I don't think his game can last. He relies a lot on pump fakes in the post to get open. And if you take that away, and all that's left is his jump shot, that's not as good of a player. And I think his pump fakes will stop working within 2 years.

Add to it that I don't think he can get the tough rebounds that are necessary. His rebounding averages are fine, but there's a difference between the way he rebounds, and Boozer rebounds. Boozer can still box people out and go for 19-20 rebounds. Jefferson gets rebounds because he's tall, like Troy Murphy.

 

[nuraman00]

Bill Simmons just said "PGs and C's are like boxers. When they lose it, they lose it".

I agree in principle, but with respect to all positions. And that's just where I see Jefferson headed. Other bigs in the past several years have fallen sharply too.

 

[Sackataters]

I would concur, a 4 year deal seems right. He'll probably seek more and walk. So, would you give Millsap another 4 year, 8 per year deal? Seems high as he has peaked. But, when you consider Marv is making 8.

 

[nuraman00]

I would concur, a 4 year deal seems right. He'll probably seek more and walk. So, would you give Millsap another 4 year, 8 per year deal? Seems high as he has peaked. But, when you consider Marv is making 8.

These are tough questions. I agree Millsap has peaked, but it's better to have a smaller bad contract than a larger one.

I'll have a good answer during the offseason. Need some time to think, and explore all possibilities with the cap space.

Marvin might make $8M, but a lot of swingmen on teams make about that much, for about the same level. And he only has 1 year left. There's going to be some mistake contracts, but someone like Marvin's is pretty common on most teams, and is more tradable IMO.

If Jefferson ends up being like how I think Jermaine O'Neal and Brand lost it, those are really hard to move, and you have to make a bad deal to move it.

I think Boozer has held up better. Even if Boozer isn't scoring, I can feel his presence with his passing in high-low sets, or his rebounding. Maybe it's because he screams after every rebound, haha, but I feel his impact during most of the game. With Jefferson, if he doesn't get the ball to score, I don't feel him setting good screens or grabbing big rebounds. Not as versatile.

Jefferson is a good player, but I'm just afraid of the type of mistake contract that could happen.

Nene, recently, was another example.

David West got 2 years, $20M from Indiana in 2011. Expand that to 4 years, and I think that's fair for Jefferson. Yeah, Jefferson is a better scorer in terms of ppg, but West's game holds up better and he's more versatile.

 

[Sackataters]

These are tough questions. I agree Millsap has peaked, but it's better to have a smaller bad contract than a larger one.

I'll have a good answer during the offseason. Need some time to think, and explore all possibilities with the cap space.

Marvin might make $8M, but a lot of swingmen on teams make about that much, for about the same level. And he only has 1 year left. There's going to be some mistake contracts, but someone like Marvin's is pretty common on most teams, and is more tradable IMO.

If Jefferson ends up being like how I think Jermaine O'Neal and Brand lost it, those are really hard to move, and you have to make a bad deal to move it.

I think Boozer has held up better. Even if Boozer isn't scoring, I can feel his presence with his passing in high-low sets, or his rebounding. Maybe it's because he screams after every rebound, haha, but I feel his impact during most of the game. With Jefferson, if he doesn't get the ball to score, I don't feel him setting good screens or grabbing big rebounds. Not as versatile.

Ha, Boozer has held up better because he treats his body like a 75 year old man treats his riding mower. Nurses that baby. Oil change every 50 hours. Doesn't take it out in the rain. He missed half his career in Utah.

Yeah, he's still productive. But, if I remember right, got 75 mil. Too much.

 

[nuraman00]

He played in 354/492 games, 71.95% of games.

Also, I see it more of a case where someone struggled with an injury early in his Utah career (in between the first and 2nd years), but after that, was healthy most of the time after that. I look at it in terms of number of injuries. It was one early. From 2006 - 2010, 270 / 328, 82% of games.

I also think players in general make injuries worse 1/2 the time by coming back early, then they re-aggravate it or overcompensate and hurt something else.

I was fine with Boozer's contract. A comparable player, like David Lee, got as much.

I also think most players aren't good if they try to play hurt. Chris Paul tried playing a few weeks ago, had 9 assists and 4 points, and Curry had 28 and 6 assists. It's not the offense as much as it is the defense. When Webber was coming back from his microfrature surgery in 2004, he was ok on offense, but Kwame Brown had 30 and 19 on him, and Lamar Odom had 30 and 17 on him. I've rarely seen a player who was hurt and tried to come back too early really help his team, because he just turns into a liability on defense, regardless of what offense he provides.

If a player tries to come back, and starts playing poorly, he gets killed, not just during the game by his opponent, but by fans for hurting the team.

When Jameer Nelson came back for the Magic in the 2009 Finals, I admire the effort, but unless he's 80% (which he wasn't), it just wasn't going to be enough.

Cassell tried coming back during the 2004 WCF for Minnesota, and just couldn't do as much. Flip Saunders ended up having to play Darrick Martin over him.

Most of these athletes, aren't better than bench players if they're at less than 80%. Most of the time, they play poorly, either with turnovers on offense, or just not good defense, then they hurt the team more. And the fans get on them. A healthy backup is usually better than less than 80% starter IMO.

Maybe a player has a good half, that's about it.

I don't treat it like a personal flaw if a player gets hurt, it's just expected during contact sports, and some of it is luck. I trust that these guys are trying to do whatever it takes, from the trainers and doctors, to get back to full speed. Some of it is just luck IMO.

Baron Davis first had back problems during the 2002 World Championships, but played through it, ever since then, he'd have recurring back spasms. Which eventually lead to hamstring problems. Etc.

Dwight Howard has been healthy until this year, now this year he looks ordinary, not like a DPOY year. Did the back surgery rob him of his mobility, or is he having a slow recovery? We'll see. But usually the best players are those that can stay the healthiest. Once a player starts to have an injury, they're usually not the same, especially if they get a second one.

 

[Sackataters]

So, you think that was another error by the front office? Letting Boozer walk. Paying Memo was. How fortunate to get out of that contract. Why did the Nets take him on? Talk about a head scratcher.

 

[nuraman00]

So, you think that was another error by the front office? Letting Boozer walk. Paying Memo was. How fortunate to get out of that contract. Why did the Nets take him on? Talk about a head scratcher.

Yeah, I was not a fan of bringing Memo back. To me, here's how I summed up his last few years:

2006-2007: Good until ASB, inconsistent after that.
2007-2008: Inconsistent until ASB, good after that.

The next two years, just not a fan. I know his numbers were decent in 2008-2009, but he was super inconsistent. For example, he had a 27 point game against Portland, then 3 weeks later, went 1-5 with maybe 4 points, and the Jazz were blown out.

There was a lot of that going on.

Also, I had always wanted to see this lineup, as I thought it put the best 5 players, especially defensively. Okur's defense was worse than his offense by 2008-2009, IMO.

Boozer
Millsap
Kirilenko
Brewer
Williams


I thought Boozer-Millsap-Kirikenlo was the best defensive lineup, as all those guys, plus Brewer, could get some steals and get out and run.

I also thought that since Boozer could rebound well, that playing a little small wouldn't hurt. I thought he could still rebound against bigger guys.

Maybe it wouldn't be good against Dwight Howard, but as Millsap has shown the past few years, he wasn't good against Dwight Howard, nor even Rashard Lewis (when Lewis was in Orlando). Orlando was just a tough team regardless.

Also, since Sloan didn't like 3's, then Okur was wasted anyways. He didn't let Okur shoot too many until late in the game anyways.

So might as well get players that played Sloan's style more.

Ideally, Brewer could be upgraded with a bigger SG, but other than that, I thought my lineup was more athletic, could rebound better, and better in the paint, which was where Sloan liked playing anyways.

 

[nuraman00]

So, you think that was another error by the front office? Letting Boozer walk. Paying Memo was. How fortunate to get out of that contract. Why did the Nets take him on? Talk about a head scratcher.

The Nets gave bad contracts to Travis Outlaw and Okur. They've made a few of those head-scratching moves.

 

[nuraman00]

Okur actually had a solid face-up game. He showed it a few times. There were 3-4 games where he didn't take 3's, but just used fakes and drives. He just didn't seem to bring it consistently, and he just stayed on the perimeter.

When Okur was in Detroit, I think Brown made him play in the paint more. Which was why Okur wanted to get away from Brown, lol.

I'm not calling Okur soft or anything, just saying he was inconsistent, and I thought he could have been a little more than he was. I saw a good offensive talent, both with 3's, and his face-up game, but he couldn't really form "the big 3". Boozer and Williams were consistent, Okur was less so.

 

[raptorlife4]

interested in bargnani? he is on the block. offers?

 

[nuraman00]

interested in bargnani? he is on the block. offers?

I'll take Jose Bautista.