Devers…

[tzill]

there's millions of those in today's MLB

Also, I’m not sure how good his stuff is….his K rate isn’t special given he can throw 103

 

[tzill]

And now you have another, and a legit SP with upside, and money to spend.

I get thinking bad trade for you but it's not as bad as you are making it out (same with Luka trade)

The key to the trade for the Sox is getting off that contract. It could be REALLY UGLY in the 2030s.

 

[tzill]

I get some of the logic behind the trade, but I think the timing of it is rather nonsensical (deadline is 6-7 weeks away, Sox are 37-36, they're down Bregman) and I just don't think some of the return is a good fit. I do like the Sox freeing up money and I do think they're better off ridding themselves of it in the future, but there's always going to be the matter of what they do with that money. And while I think they're vastly improving their roster flexibility and payroll by moving him, I do think this trade hurts from a 2025 perspective.

I do like us getting Harrison out of the trade, but I just don't think Tibbs is a logical fit unless the Sox plan on using him or someone else as a trade chip. I don't hate him as a prospect either, he was a 1st rounder and he has a 132 wRC+ despite the meh BA with good K/BB rates... the Sox just have a bunch of outfielders already with Anthony/Duran/Rafaela/Abreu/Campbell/Refsnyder. Jose Bello has great K/BB rates, but he's 20 now and he hasn't even pitched in A ball

It might also just be the shock of the trade and the familiar feeling of the Nomar/Betts trades, but at least one of those trades worked out for the Sox. Hopefully it works out like the Nomar trade, but I'm feeling pretty skeptical right now. I hope you enjoy Devers at least, he is a fun hitter to watch. I will miss him killing the Yanks and making Cole his bitch

Personally, I can’t wait til October when he kills the Skankees again….

 

[tzill]

By the way Giants fans. timestamp this one...even if Harrison turns into a Wheeler level guy I'm all in on this deal, Posey made a great move here.

Felt the same and still do on Beltran for Wheeler

We’ve been over the Beltran deal quite a few times. There are those who believe it to be the correct move at the time and idiots.

The difference here is that Devers isn’t a rental. Now, if someone wants to complain about the contract, he has a point. Otherwise, I’m not sure we gave up all that much for an all star future HOF hitter.

Harry may never develop a legit second pitch. Tibbs may never be an adequate defender. Hicks may never have the strikeout stuff you’d expect, and Bello? Who dafuq knows….

 

[tzill]

Of course but the trade was the exact right play he just didn't perform great, he was ok, even above average for us in that short time...920 OPS and 159 OPS+ but only 167 at bats

And he got hit on the hand. Just really bad luck.

 

[msgkings322]

If it takes him 7 years to become an ace, I can live with the trade.

I am happy with the trade no matter what he does. It's the correct move, now Devers has to perform. You don't turn down the deal. If Harrison turns into an ace, good for him and for the Red Sox, they got what they needed. We got what we needed by giving up surplus.

 

[tzill]

It's just money, we keep being mad the Dodgers spend so much, ok let's f'ing go

Got a legit bat at age 28, who saw that as a possibility? Cost is just money and surplus arms, and a maybe bat trapped positionally behind a 'no doubt' one

Good trade, A grade

I think this is a correct take, except I would quibble on the “just money” part. There is opportunity cost risk with this one. Quite a lot actually. Money we are paying Devers in 2030 is money we won’t have to extend Webb, Roupp, Bird, Whiz, Ramos, Lee, Bryce, Doval, etc….

It’s not free money. Overall, I agree though. Solid move, no matter how it works out.

 

[tzill]

Yeah, the prospect cost AND the taking on of the full salary feels steep. Guess Posey felt it was worth the get. We will see. He will be good but not sure what the long term will look like. As I said earlier, if we get at least 3 more prime Devers' offensive years, it will likely be worth it even if Harrison turns out to be a stud.

Another thing (and I’ll argue against myself a bit here): salary inflation. $30M/yr is a huge number now, but in 5 years? Might be more middle of the pack. And the contract is heavily deferred as well so the cost to the Giants will be less in the early 30s.

 

[tzill]

He is going to have to improve his production to match the contract. Recently, he has been about a 3.5 WAR player. Inaccurately rule of thumbing, that makes him worth approx 22.5M per.

I’ve been reading that 1 WAR is much closer to $9M in value, so 3.5 WAR and he yields a slight surplus.

I’d expect he’ll be a 4 WAR guy for a couple of years.

 

[tzill]

I am happy with the trade no matter what he does. It's the correct move, now Devers has to perform. You don't turn down the deal. If Harrison turns into an ace, good for him and for the Red Sox, they got what they needed. We got what we needed by giving up surplus.

Sure, I get that. Harry is sunk cost. I’m not rooting for him to fail. All I’m saying is that when we evaluate this trade in 3 or 5 years, how Harry performs is going to matter, potentially quite a lot.

100% agree that if you have a chance to add a HOF bat, you do it 10 times out of 10.

It’s like adding Durant.

 

[msgkings322]

I think this is a correct take, except I would quibble on the “just money” part. There is opportunity cost risk with this one. Quite a lot actually. Money we are paying Devers in 2030 is money we won’t have to extend Webb, Roupp, Bird, Whiz, Ramos, Lee, Bryce, Doval, etc….

Fuck them if they don't pony up some of the ever increasing billions the franchise is worth to keep a winning team intact. We aren't going to spend like the Dodgers but we damn sure better keep up somewhat

It’s not free money. Overall, I agree though. Solid move, no matter how it works out.

 

[calsnowskier]

If it takes him 7 years to become an ace, I can live with the trade.

If Harry is a slow-moving locomotive that takes 4 or 5 years to become a CY contender, Tibbs takes 2-3 years to make it to the bigs and Devers gives us 3-4 years of MVP-vote-receiving seasons, it will be a win trade.

 

[calsnowskier]

The key to the trade for the Sox is getting off that contract. It could be REALLY UGLY in the 2030s.

There are accusations coming out now that the Sox made the trade to benefit their financial situation to improve their Soccer team in Europe.

If there is any meat on that bone, that could be big.

 

[calsnowskier]

I think this is a correct take, except I would quibble on the “just money” part. There is opportunity cost risk with this one. Quite a lot actually. Money we are paying Devers in 2030 is money we won’t have to extend Webb, Roupp, Bird, Whiz, Ramos, Lee, Bryce, Doval, etc….

It’s not free money. Overall, I agree though. Solid move, no matter how it works out.

This is my thought, but the counter arguments (many of which you make yourself) that 31M in ‘33 =/= 31M in ‘25, and apparently, lots of that money is deferred, so it isn’t actually 31M in ‘33.

 

[calsnowskier]

Murph just made a great point on KNBR…

Look at what the Nats got for Soto from the Pads. This was not that.

 

[calsnowskier]

Sabey Sabes took over the GM duties and he made a splash trade that changed the direction of the franchise.

Buster took over the PoBO duties (essentially what the GM was 30 years ago) and made a splash trade that will change the direction of the franchise.

 

[calsnowskier]

FZ was not capable of making this kind of deal. It simply isn’t in his DNA.

Damn. Buster has changed the culture in this organization almost over night. And it is back to what the Giants were as most of us were growing up.

 

[maxrandomness]

Sure, I get that. Harry is sunk cost. I’m not rooting for him to fail. All I’m saying is that when we evaluate this trade in 3 or 5 years, how Harry performs is going to matter, potentially quite a lot.

100% agree that if you have a chance to add a HOF bat, you do it 10 times out of 10.

It’s like adding Durant.

Interesting that Krukow recently told posey that Harrison had the best upside of all the young pitchers

 

[msgkings322]

If Harry is a slow-moving locomotive that takes 4 or 5 years to become a CY contender, Tibbs takes 2-3 years to make it to the bigs and Devers gives us 3-4 years of MVP-vote-receiving seasons, it will be a win trade.

It's a win if Devers produces, that's all we need to win the trade. Because then we win more games and are better able to compete for titles.

 

[filosofy29]

FZ was not capable of making this kind of deal. It simply isn’t in his DNA.

Damn. Buster has changed the culture in this organization almost over night. And it is back to what the Giants were as most of us were growing up.

Agreed. I think he’d be an amazing #2. He is very smart and some of his drafts are now starting to pull through. But he just seemed to lack whatever it is to make that big move. Whether it was paralysis by analysis or intestinal fortitude I don’t know.