NE Patriots & 2025 Free Agency

[BigKen]

After next Sunday, this will be the most discussed thing from Fort Kent, ME to Hartford, CT over to Providence, RI.

Of course, Mayo and the coaching staff might overtake free agency if Robert Kraft hands the decision making over to Johnathan Kraft.

None the less, we'll have a place to discuss real signings and rumors, as well as people we hope that the Patriots will at least attempt to sign.

 

[BigKen]

Patriots have made a huge effort to sign their own players in the past. Here are the potential free agents on the Patriots and my opinion of who should be kept. I've selected nine (highlighted) of the list and none of these guys will break the bank.

Offense​

• Jacoby Brissett (QB) – UFA
• Chukwuma Okorafor (T) – UFA
• Austin Hooper (TE) – UFA
• Calvin Anderson (T) – UFA
• JaMycal Hasty (RB) – UFA
• Mitchell Wilcox (TE) – UFA
• Kawaan Baker (WR) – ERFA
• JaQuae Jackson (WR) – ERFA
• Tyrone Wheatley Jr. (T) – ERFA
• Kevin Harris (RB) – RFA
• La’Michael Pettway (TE) – ERFA

Defense​

• Jonathan Jones (CB) – UFA
• Marco Wilson (CB) – UFA
• Armon Watts (DT) – UFA
• Daniel Ekuale (DT) – UFA
• Raekwon McMillan (ILB) – UFA
• Jaylinn Hawkins (S) – UFA
• Oshane Ximines (OLB) – UFA
• Trysten Hill (DT) – UFA
• Christian Elliss (DE) – RFA
• Joe Giles-Harris (LB) – RFA
• A.J. Thomas (S) – RFA
• Shaun Wade (CB) – UFA
• Alex Austin (CB) – ERFA
• Will Bradley-KIng (DE) – ERFA
• Josiah Bronson (DT) – ERFA
• Joshuah Bledsoe (S) – ERFA
• Brenden Schooler (S) – RFA
• Jeremiah Pharms (DT) – ERFA
• Azizi Hearn (CB) – ERFA

Special Teams​

• Joey Slye (K) – UFA

 

[NWPATSFAN]

Patriots have made a huge effort to sign their own players in the past. Here are the potential free agents on the Patriots and my opinion of who should be kept. I've selected nine (highlighted) of the list and none of these guys will break the bank.

Offense​

• Jacoby Brissett (QB) – UFA
• Chukwuma Okorafor (T) – UFA
• Austin Hooper (TE) – UFA
• Calvin Anderson (T) – UFA
• JaMycal Hasty (RB) – UFA
• Mitchell Wilcox (TE) – UFA
• Kawaan Baker (WR) – ERFA
• JaQuae Jackson (WR) – ERFA
• Tyrone Wheatley Jr. (T) – ERFA
• Kevin Harris (RB) – RFA
• La’Michael Pettway (TE) – ERFA

Defense​

• Jonathan Jones (CB) – UFA
• Marco Wilson (CB) – UFA
• Armon Watts (DT) – UFA
• Daniel Ekuale (DT) – UFA
• Raekwon McMillan (ILB) – UFA
• Jaylinn Hawkins (S) – UFA
• Oshane Ximines (OLB) – UFA
• Trysten Hill (DT) – UFA
• Christian Elliss (DE) – RFA
• Joe Giles-Harris (LB) – RFA
• A.J. Thomas (S) – RFA
• Shaun Wade (CB) – UFA
• Alex Austin (CB) – ERFA
• Will Bradley-KIng (DE) – ERFA
• Josiah Bronson (DT) – ERFA
• Joshuah Bledsoe (S) – ERFA
• Brenden Schooler (S) – RFA
• Jeremiah Pharms (DT) – ERFA
• Azizi Hearn (CB) – ERFA

Special Teams​

• Joey Slye (K) – UFA

Hooper yes
Hasty no
Jones 50/50 depends on draft and cost
Ekuale yes
Ximines no
Ellis yes
Schooler yes yes
Pharms 60/40 yes
Slye yes

 

[BigKen]

We all agree that the greatest need for the Patriots going forward is a significant improvement in the OL. That starts with a solid LT. Every LT headed to FA will be immediately coveted by his own team and that team will attempt to make an offer that will hopefully scare off everyone else. Big problem for them is that the Patriots have somewhere between $139M and $144M of cap space and hopefully will be willing to spend it. The NFL Cap is expected to be somewhere between $285M and 300M in 2025. If it is $300M, the Patriots will have approx. $175M to spend.

Garrett Bolles is a prime target for every LT needy team. He will probably cost somewhere around 4/$120M ($30M per year, $100M guaranteed) if the Broncos don't sign him before the market opens, if they haven't already.
Cam Robinson will cost less, but the Jags will probably try to price him out of everyone else's wallet. 4/$88m ($50m guaranteed)
Ronnie Stanley, DJ Humphries, Demontray Jacobs (NE) and Jaylon Moore are the remainder of the Under 30 group.

A one year monster from the Jets, Tyron Smith (34) might be worth a $20M-$25M offer to have a rookie study under while greatly improving the left side protection.

Cornelius Lucus and Kevin Beachem round out the top ten. They're a bit older but still very serviceable.

Any of these nine would be a positive impact for the Patriots. With the money that they will have, they cannot be pinching pennies.

 

[BigKen]

Hooper yes
Hasty no
Jones 50/50 depends on draft and cost
Ekuale yes
Ximines no
Ellis yes
Schooler yes yes
Pharms 60/40 yes
Slye yes

I'd rather have Hasty than Gibbons and Ximines is just a 2nd year player who got hurt and would be a solid PS guy. JMO.............

 

[NWPATSFAN]

I'd rather have Hasty than Gibbons and Ximines is just a 2nd year player who got hurt and would be a solid PS guy. JMO.............

Hasty is a little Hasty in making decisions. He didn't show me anything to warrant keeping him. Gibson is still under contract and a better back IMO. I've also stated previously I hope NE gets a RB and FB.

Ximines would depend on what NE does in FA and the draft. I hate keeping a guy solely for STs unless they are special. Ie. Slater Schooler...

 

[NWPATSFAN]

We all agree that the greatest need for the Patriots going forward is a significant improvement in the OL. That starts with a solid LT. Every LT headed to FA will be immediately coveted by his own team and that team will attempt to make an offer that will hopefully scare off everyone else. Big problem for them is that the Patriots have somewhere between $139M and $144M of cap space and hopefully will be willing to spend it. The NFL Cap is expected to be somewhere between $285M and 300M in 2025. If it is $300M, the Patriots will have approx. $175M to spend.

Garrett Bolles is a prime target for every LT needy team. He will probably cost somewhere around 4/$120M ($30M per year, $100M guaranteed) if the Broncos don't sign him before the market opens, if they haven't already.
Cam Robinson will cost less, but the Jags will probably try to price him out of everyone else's wallet. 4/$88m ($50m guaranteed)
Ronnie Stanley, DJ Humphries, Demontray Jacobs (NE) and Jaylon Moore are the remainder of the Under 30 group.

A one year monster from the Jets, Tyron Smith (34) might be worth a $20M-$25M offer to have a rookie study under while greatly improving the left side protection.

Cornelius Lucus and Kevin Beachem round out the top ten. They're a bit older but still very serviceable.

Any of these nine would be a positive impact for the Patriots. With the money that they will have, they cannot be pinching pennies.

I think NE can draft a starting OT. Both Cambell and Banks have dropped slightly in some of the recent big boards. I think they will go between 6-10? So if the cost is too high on the FA pool just move on. Trade the current #1 pick and get one or the other plus the extra draft capital. Use that money on a WR like Higgens. Don't low ball him. Overpay and get him. Lord knows NE can't draft nor develop WRs.

This scenario alone will greatly improve the offense. Add the FB and possibly a good blocking TE and the running game should improve. Barring Stevenson can remember how to hold onto the ball.

 

[BigKen]

I think NE can draft a starting OT. Both Cambell and Banks have dropped slightly in some of the recent big boards. I think they will go between 6-10? So if the cost is too high on the FA pool just move on. Trade the current #1 pick and get one or the other plus the extra draft capital. Use that money on a WR like Higgens. Don't low ball him. Overpay and get him. Lord knows NE can't draft nor develop WRs.

This scenario alone will greatly improve the offense. Add the FB and possibly a good blocking TE and the running game should improve. Barring Stevenson can remember how to hold onto the ball.

So how much is too much for a solid LT? $25M? $30M? $35M? If you're paying a QB $45M a year, isn't a LT to protect his blind side worth the same? Lose the QB, lose the season, possibly lose the QB forever.

So, you pay Bolles $30M a year for 4 years, pay Higgins $35M a year for 4 years and there's still $100M left in the piggy bank. Now you can fill very specific holes like CB and spend $25-$30M more for a DJ Reed or Carleton Davis or $20M for Asante Samuel?

Wow....Still have $70M to spend on an EDGE Like Matthew Judon or Haason Reddick or maybe both.

Just make sure that you have $20M leftover for the draft. Now Trade and select with care and fill the OL holes and DL holes.

Maybe 9-7 in 2025 and load of picks in 2026????

I make it too simple. The front office wants to make it seem as complicated as the Shroud of Turin or Cleopatra's final resting place.

 

[cheerupcharlie]

You keep mentioning Bolles. He’s already resigned with the Broncos.

And you want to pay him 30 million a year? Denver signed him on a 4 year 82 million. Yeah…. Let’s over pay 10 million a year.

 

[BigKen]

Let’s over pay 10 million a year.

Charle, You have to remember ""WHERE"" they will be playing. Taxachusetts. Miserable humidity in training camp, pleasant fall for the start of th season that turns into miserable cold, rain, sleet and snow. Plus the team sucks. Ifyou want top players, they will have to overpay to entice them to spend 8 months in the northeast.

Have to be realistic. Money will be the deciding factor in the first two tiers of free agents.

I lived up there for 72 year of my life except the four in the far east. Lived in Taxachusetts from 1985-1988 and couldn't wait to move out.

 

[BigKen]

Patriots' Top Free Agent Target Drops Ominous News

The New England Patriots desperately need to shore up their receiving corps heading into the NFL offseason, and everyone knows their top target in free agency is going to be Tee Higgins.

www.yardbarker.com

 

[nefansince75]

Charle, You have to remember ""WHERE"" they will be playing. Taxachusetts. Miserable humidity in training camp, pleasant fall for the start of th season that turns into miserable cold, rain, sleet and snow. Plus the team sucks. Ifyou want top players, they will have to overpay to entice them to spend 8 months in the northeast.

Have to be realistic. Money will be the deciding factor in the first two tiers of free agents.

I lived up there for 72 year of my life except the four in the far east. Lived in Taxachusetts from 1985-1988 and couldn't wait to move out.

I guess that's why the Titans are a perennial powerhouse with the longer summers, shorter winters and no taxes.

 

[NWPATSFAN]

So how much is too much for a solid LT? $25M? $30M? $35M? If you're paying a QB $45M a year, isn't a LT to protect his blind side worth the same? Lose the QB, lose the season, possibly lose the QB forever.

So, you pay Bolles $30M a year for 4 years, pay Higgins $35M a year for 4 years and there's still $100M left in the piggy bank. Now you can fill very specific holes like CB and spend $25-$30M more for a DJ Reed or Carleton Davis or $20M for Asante Samuel?

Wow....Still have $70M to spend on an EDGE Like Matthew Judon or Haason Reddick or maybe both.

Just make sure that you have $20M leftover for the draft. Now Trade and select with care and fill the OL holes and DL holes.

Maybe 9-7 in 2025 and load of picks in 2026????

I make it too simple. The front office wants to make it seem as complicated as the Shroud of Turin or Cleopatra's final resting place.

IMO it's not so much the $ it's about $ verse longevity. You can't spend to much for a 1-2 year vet player.

 

[BigKen]

IMO it's not so much the $ it's about $ verse longevity. You can't spend to much for a 1-2 year vet player.

We've come to a point in pro sports where it's a case of money and Length of contract and guaranteed money.
There's hardly a player, especially in the NFL who will even talk to a team about one or two years. If you want to be as sfe as possible, sign the oldest FAs to one year contracts. They will not play for peanuts, so be ready to cough up a big guaranteed contract.

A good 2025 example might be LT Tyron Smith DAL. He made it through 2024. He's36, $6.5 million, including a $4.5 million signing bonus. Would you be willing to pay him $8-$10M for one year guaranteed?

Higgins has said that he's willing to take less money if the Bengals want to resign him. Move on. How about Keenan Allen? 33 years, 6'3" 212
His contract was signed with the Chargers for 4/$45M with $20.5M guaranteed. He's healthy, still catching balls every week. 2/$30M guaranteed??

Dollars vs length vs guaranteed money. If you can't understand where the league is today, then you're living in a Fantasy Football universe.

 

[NWPATSFAN]

We've come to a point in pro sports where it's a case of money and Length of contract and guaranteed money.
There's hardly a player, especially in the NFL who will even talk to a team about one or two years. If you want to be as sfe as possible, sign the oldest FAs to one year contracts. They will not play for peanuts, so be ready to cough up a big guaranteed contract.

A good 2025 example might be LT Tyron Smith DAL. He made it through 2024. He's36, $6.5 million, including a $4.5 million signing bonus. Would you be willing to pay him $8-$10M for one year guaranteed?

Higgins has said that he's willing to take less money if the Bengals want to resign him. Move on. How about Keenan Allen? 33 years, 6'3" 212
His contract was signed with the Chargers for 4/$45M with $20.5M guaranteed. He's healthy, still catching balls every week. 2/$30M guaranteed??

Dollars vs length vs guaranteed money. If you can't understand where the league is today, then you're living in a Fantasy Football universe.

Not sure you understood my comment? It appears we're saying the same thing just different ways?

So yes I would entertain those two offers you mentioned. Granted Smith is getting long in the tooth. Does he have one more serviceable year? He's better than what NE has now. He could also provide that veteran preference. Possibly groom a rookie picked up later in the draft?

So much depends on what NEs draft strategy is?

 

[BigKen]

Not sure you understood my comment? It appears we're saying the same thing just different ways?

So yes I would entertain those two offers you mentioned. Granted Smith is getting long in the tooth. Does he have one more serviceable year? He's better than what NE has now. He could also provide that veteran preference. Possibly groom a rookie picked up later in the draft?

So much depends on what NEs draft strategy is?

Which scares the living hell out of me.

They certainly didn't show much last year.

 

[Yankee Traveler]

Charle, You have to remember ""WHERE"" they will be playing. Taxachusetts. Miserable humidity in training camp, pleasant fall for the start of th season that turns into miserable cold, rain, sleet and snow. Plus the team sucks. Ifyou want top players, they will have to overpay to entice them to spend 8 months in the northeast.

Have to be realistic. Money will be the deciding factor in the first two tiers of free agents.

I lived up there for 72 year of my life except the four in the far east. Lived in Taxachusetts from 1985-1988 and couldn't wait to move out.

That will be worth a couple mil $.

Denver has it's own issues.

 

[Yankee Traveler]

I guess that's why the Titans are a perennial powerhouse with the longer summers, shorter winters and no taxes.

The Titans have Oline and QB issues.

And they have drafted Oline first or second round for the past 4 or 5 years.

 

[BigKen]

Of the top 75 Free Agents that will be available (If they don't resign with their present team), here are some guys that can fill spots and help turn the Patriots around in 2025. I also think they can be signed for reasonable contracts.

13. CB Charvarius Ward, San Francisco 49ers​

Ward struggled in 2024 and posted career lows in a number of PFF metrics, but his overall body of work will keep him as one of the top options on the market in 2025. Last year was his best in the NFL to date, with his 86.5 PFF coverage grade ranking third among all players at the position. With cornerback teammate Deommodore Lenoir receiving an in-season extension, the writing appears to be on the wall that Ward will be on the way out of San Francisco.

Top free agent comparison: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, 2014​

Player	Coverage grade w/ no pressure	Cov. grade on throws in ≤ 3s	Forced incompletion rate	Single coverage grade	APY as % of Cap at signing
Charvarius Ward	81.3	79.2	15.8%	41.3	?
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie	72.6	80.9	15.1%	N/A	5.3%

25. G Teven Jenkins, Chicago Bears​

Jenkins is a force to be reckoned with on most Sundays; the issue over his career thus far has been getting on the field on Sundays. There are some occasional whiffs to clean up in pass protection, but it can’t exactly help his pass-set footwork going from right tackle to left tackle to left guard while also rehabbing a bunch over his rookie contract. Fellow 2021 second-round draft pick Sam Cosmi signed a four-year, $74 million extension with the Washington Commanders before the 2024 campaign, which could serve as a favorable comparison for Jenkins, as Cosmi also kicked inside from tackle to guard and missed some time to injury through his first three seasons.

Top free agent comparison: Brian Winters, 2017​

Player	Pass-blocking grade	True pass set pass-blocking grade	Positive run-blocking grade percentage	APY as % of Cap at signing
Teven Jenkins	73.7	67.6	15.2%	?
Brian Winters	75.0	66.0	12.2%	4.7%

38. WR Darius Slayton, New York Giants​

Shaky quarterback and offensive line play arguably limited Slayton’s production during his time with the Giants, which is unfortunate for a player who is a threat to break off an explosive play at any moment. The former fifth-round steal nonetheless had four seasons of at least 700 receiving yards on 15 yards per reception over his first five years in the league, which is harder to do when the quarterback has little time to wait for longer-developing routes downfield. Slayton is also the Giants’ 2024 Walter Payton Man of the Year nominee, showing he’d be an asset to any locker room.

Top free agent comparison: Paul Richardson, 2018​

Player	Receiving grade	Yards per route run	Average depth of target	Yards after catch per reception	APY as % of Cap at signing
Darius Slayton	64.8	1.23	13.1	4.9	?
Paul Richardson	68.8	1.39	14.8	3.4	4.5%

41. G/T Mekhi Becton, Philadelphia Eagles​

Becton is the latest in a very long line of star pupils to attend Jeff Stoutland University in Philadelphia, working with arguably the league’s best offensive line coach to get his career back on track. A kick inside to guard for 2024 may not be a permanent move for Becton, as the Eagles have possibly the best tackle tandem in the NFL, but his demonstrated versatility across the line is only a good thing.

Top free agent comparison: Ezra Cleveland, 2024​

Player	Pass-blocking grade	True pass set pass-blocking grade	Positive run-blocking grade percentage	APY as % of Cap at signing
Mekhi Becton	61.0	49.1	14.3%	?
Ezra Cleveland	55.1	53.1	16.8%	3.1%

71. EDGE Matthew Judon, Atlanta Falcons​

Judon was traded to the Falcons after a contract feud with the New England Patriots, and the new Patriots front office certainly looks sharp for acquiring a 2025 third-round pick for a player on the decline. Outside of his injury-shortened 2023 season that played a role in the trade, Judon set career lows almost across the board in 2024 compared to all prior healthy seasons besides his rookie campaign in 2016.

Top free agent comparison: Ahmad Brooks, 2017​

Player	Pass-rush grade	True pass set pass-rush grade	Pass-rush win rate	Run-defense grade	APY as % of Cap at signing
Matthew Judon	55.1	56.9	6.8%	56.9	?
Ahmad Brooks	52.0	57.9	7.3%	66.6	2.1%

 

[BigKen]

I think we all teand to gravitate toward the best free agents available and then get pissed of because they signed somewhere else. So I've started looking at the top 200 free sgents available and restricted myself to the the first top 100 and then combed my through looking a players that could be signed for huge money and then a reasonable alternative at much less.

LT Ronnie Stanley, alternative Mehi Bector
ED Malcom Koonce, alternative Chase Young
LB Dre Greenlaw, alternative Earnest Jones
DL Calais Campbell, Jarran Reed
OG Will Fries, alternative Zack Martin
S Camryn Bynum, alternative Justin Reed
WR Marquis Brown, alternative Darius Slaton
RB JK Dobbins, alternative Nick Chubb
CB DJ Reed. alternative Chavarious Ward


Here are some guys that might be available for cheap on Friday on Friday.........Injury, Age, Poor 2024, Team cap problems, etc..............

CB Stephon Gilmore
ED Matthew Judon
ED Demarcus Lawrence
S Harrison Smith
DI BJ Hill
LB Bobby Wagner


You can probably find more or better, but the idea is that with $140M to spend, Vrabel doesn't have to cannonball and splash everyone poolside. Making a perfect jackknife and barely make the water ripple might be a better thing for him and the team.