Can the future CFP teams be accurately predicted on NSDs?

[Deep Creek]

Recruiting data can predict college football's next championship

Looks like the playoff teams for the 2019 season will be Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and LSU.

This should make the LSU folks happy and get the Cookie Monster an extended contract. What say ye corndog faithful?

 

[_rolltideroll_]

Just two SEC teams? Rigged.

 

[4down20]

No, it can not.

"Four-year home-state recruiting average"

Seriously? That's dumb. It's like they just created criteria as they went along to filter teams out.

 

[7Samurai13]

Oregon, Michigan State, and Washington have all made the playoffs with BAD recruiting classes. Does it help? Obviously. But it is not a be all end all stat to determine playoff teams.

 

[Wild Turkey]

Oregon, Michigan State, and Washington have all made the playoffs with BAD recruiting classes. Does it help? Obviously. But it is not a be all end all stat to determine playoff teams.

That just speaks to how bad the conference strength is in the B1G and PAC and is also an excellent argument for the playoffs not expanding.

 

[theboardref]

No, it can not.

"Four-year home-state recruiting average"

Seriously? That's dumb. It's like they just created criteria as they went along to filter teams out.

Agreed. The state of Alabama has some pretty good talent. That talent is enough for the two major SEC programs and enough for the smaller conference teams. In some cases other major schools pick up some kids from Bama, think LSU has at least one this year.

Bama does most of its damage out of state. Don’t really think who Bama recruits in their own state, or doesn’t recruit, would ding them. Hell they could recruit all their kids out of state and it would still be a top tier class.

 

[theboardref]

That just speaks to how bad the conference strength is in the B1G and PAC and is also an excellent argument for the playoffs not expanding.

Pretty sure the only team in that list that faired out ok was Oregon if I am not mistaken.

 

[Deep Creek]

Oregon, Michigan State, and Washington have all made the playoffs with BAD recruiting classes. Does it help? Obviously. But it is not a be all end all stat to determine playoff teams.

Those three all made it to the playoffs but none of 'em have won it with those "bad" classes.

That said, I do believe Clem has won it with non top 5 classes but I'm not a recruiting guru.

 

[Deep Creek]

Pretty sure the only team in that list that faired out ok was Oregon if I am not mistaken.

If by "faired out ok" you mean they won a game...then you are 100% correct.

 

[UCFhonors]

Ever heard of confirmation bias? Well now everyone ITT has.

#UCFacts

 

[theboardref]

If by "faired out ok" you mean they won a game...then you are 100% correct.

Better than getting blasted like the other two, although both did play Bama.

 

[4down20]

Agreed. The state of Alabama has some pretty good talent. That talent is enough for the two major SEC programs and enough for the smaller conference teams. In some cases other major schools pick up some kids from Bama, think LSU has at least one this year.

Bama does most of its damage out of state. Don’t really think who Bama recruits in their own state, or doesn’t recruit, would ding them. Hell they could recruit all their kids out of state and it would still be a top tier class.

Well Ross was a 5 star that went to Clemson, so that one dinged us pretty good. But overall, yeah it's not very relevant.

 

[cwalke3408]

Those three all made it to the playoffs but none of 'em have won it with those "bad" classes.

That said, I do believe Clem has won it with non top 5 classes but I'm not a recruiting guru.

You wouldn't be wrong.
2016: 11th
2015: 9th
2014: 16th
2013: 15th

 

[AlaskaGuy]

Better than getting blasted like the other two, although both did play Bama.

Washington got blasted?

 

[handicappers]

Washington got blasted?

No but your asshole did in prison.


Bwahahahaha

Texas will be in CFP next season.

 

[theboardref]

Washington got blasted?

Held 5 touchdowns below season average, lost by 17, was manhandled up front, Browning was ineffective, punter was the MVP, scored on the second drive and didn’t score again all game, trailed by double digits for 35 minutes with no concern of a comeback. So to reiterate, yes blasted.

 

[MAIZEandBLUE09]

Damn, so close. Looks like we were the last team out.

 

[Deep Creek]

You wouldn't be wrong.
2016: 11th
2015: 9th
2014: 16th
2013: 15th

For the 2018 natty team, it would be the 2015 - 2018 classes of 9th, 11th, 16th and 7th (which included Sunshine who was a huge factor in winning it this year.) So, that gives Clem a four year average recruiting class of 10.75 or outside the top 10 classes for that four year period. So, couldn't an objective observer logically conclude that Clemson has done a better job of developing talent and coaching over that period of time than the 7, 8 or 9 other teams that had higher recruiting classes have done?

And, in B4 someone brings up the fact that some of those teams have players that leave early. That could definitely be a factor...but a factor could also be pointed out that said teams also replaced the players that left early with other players just as good or better...only younger.

 

[Sheluvsbama]

Oregon, Michigan State, and Washington have all made the playoffs with BAD recruiting classes. Does it help? Obviously. But it is not a be all end all stat to determine playoff teams.

Recruiting stars don't necessarily mean success. It means they have good potential with the right coaching. Sometimes it pans out, and sometimes it doesnt.

 

[Deep Creek]

Recruiting stars don't necessarily mean success. It means they have good potential with the right coaching. Sometimes it pans out, and sometimes it doesnt.

Glad you put "necessarily" in there. If stars didn't matter, why are the ones with more stars by their names more coveted than those with less stars?