Top 25 teams of the CFP era

[Deep Creek]

BCS methodology, efficiency, CFP appearance/CFP win/CFP title and talent.

This answers the only question I had. Thanks. (It was how the 2014 TCU team was in their w/o the 2014 Baylor team since Baylor beat them that year. But, your criteria makes that crystal clear.)

 

[ericd7633]

If Fields doesn't get hurt against PSU and again against michigan, they are probably #1 on your list, and I would say overall they were better than 2014 all things being equal. However, 2014 OSU won the NC, beat 3 of the top 5 teams in the final rankings with a 59-0 win over another top 15 team, and boasted several immediate impact elite NFL players. They are top 5, without question.

OSU winning the 2019 title probably pushes them to #1 or #2, it would be close between them and 2018 Clemson for the #1 spot. And yeah, honestly, I think they were a lot better than the 2014 OSU team. They just ran into a much better team in 2019 Clemson, and had they won, a much better LSU team than Oregon. 2019 was the most top heavy as far as teams go.

And yes, OSU closed out strong as hell in 2014, but the totality of their season is why they are behind the other National Champions, and even some teams that didn't win it, like the 2019 OSU team.

 

[ericd7633]

This answers the only question I had. Thanks. (It was how the 2014 TCU team was in their w/o the 2014 Baylor team since Baylor beat them that year. But, your criteria makes that crystal clear.)

That Baylor team didn't crack the top 35.

 

[Across The Field]

OSU winning the 2019 title probably pushes them to #1 or #2, it would be close between them and 2018 Clemson for the #1 spot. And yeah, honestly, I think they were a lot better than the 2014 OSU team. They just ran into a much better team in 2019 Clemson, and had they won, a much better LSU team than Oregon. 2019 was the most top heavy as far as teams go.

And yes, OSU closed out strong as hell in 2014, but the totality of their season is why they are behind the other National Champions, and even some teams that didn't win it, like the 2019 OSU team.

The totality of the season?

Like 2016 Clemson, who had 6 wins by a TD or less, with 2 of those coming against unranked teams, as well as a loss to unranked Pitt and should've lost to NC State had their kicker not choked on an easy FG attempt?

Or 2019 Clemson who had 2 ranked wins all year, one against the #25 team in the final rankings and the other coming in a highly controversial contest against a team who's best offensive player played with a sprained MCL that hampered him greatly? And oh yeah, didn't even win the NC?

Or 2017 Alabama who had 2 ranked wins before bowl season, got physically dominated by their rival in the final week of the season, and didn't even play for/win their conference title? Not to mention getting to play the worst CFP team of the CFP era in the first round?

But no, no bias here.

 

[ericd7633]

2019 Georgia was better than 2018 and 2014

They were all relatively close to each other. 2018 UGA finished 25, 2014 UGA finished 30 and 2019 UGA finished 32.

 

[ericd7633]

The totality of the season?

Like 2016 Clemson, who had 6 wins by a TD or less, with 2 of those coming against unranked teams, as well as a loss to unranked Pitt and should've lost to NC State had their kicker not choked on an easy FG attempt?

Or 2019 Clemson who had 2 ranked wins all year, one against the #25 team in the final rankings and the other coming in a highly controversial contest against a team who's best offensive player played with a sprained MCL that hampered him greatly? And oh yeah, didn't even win the NC?

Or 2017 Alabama who had 2 ranked wins before bowl season, got physically dominated by their rival in the final week of the season, and didn't even play for/win their conference title? Not to mention getting to play the worst CFP team of the CFP era in the first round?

But no, no bias here.

Clemson was knocked down because of their lack of efficiency during the season, it's why they are behind the team they beat for the title and another non title team. On the bright side for them, they did beat 6 ranked teams on the way to winning that title. Which is why they rate so high in the BCS methodology of this ranking. There isn't that big of a gap between 2016 Clemson and 2014 Ohio State.

2019 Clemson had one close game the whole season. And yes, were lucky/fortunate to beat Ohio State 2019. The gap between 2019 Clemson and 2014 Ohio State is small enough that if Ohio State 2019 would have beaten Clemson 2019, 2014 Ohio State would be ahead of Clemson 2019. These aren't massive gaps or anything.

2017 Bama had two ranked wins just like 2014 OSU did heading into bowl season. Again, there isn't a massive gap between any of these teams you have mentioned. And 2014 OSU did lose by even more to a much worse team than any of these teams did.

And no, this isn't being biased.

 

[Across The Field]

Clemson was knocked down because of their lack of efficiency during the season, it's why they are behind the team they beat for the title and another non title team. On the bright side for them, they did beat 6 ranked teams on the way to winning that title. Which is why they rate so high in the BCS methodology of this ranking. There isn't that big of a gap between 2016 Clemson and 2014 Ohio State.

2019 Clemson had one close game the whole season. And yes, were lucky/fortunate to beat Ohio State 2019. The gap between 2019 Clemson and 2014 Ohio State is small enough that if Ohio State 2019 would have beaten Clemson 2019, 2014 Ohio State would be ahead of Clemson 2019. These aren't massive gaps or anything.

2017 Bama had two ranked wins just like 2014 OSU did heading into bowl season. Again, there isn't a massive gap between any of these teams you have mentioned. And 2014 OSU did lose by even more to a much worse team than any of these teams did.

And no, this isn't being biased.

2016 Clemson was one of the least impressive NC winners in recent memory. They had 6 ranked wins, which is nice, but they struggled what seemed like every other week. They weren't dominant against any high-end teams other than OSU, who was probably Urban's second-worst team at OSU.

2019 Clemson had one close game the whole season because their schedule was complete and total shit. They had one "impressive" win all year long, and that game was highly criticized on a national level for multiple reasons.

2014 OSU had 3 ranked wins heading into bowl season - #8 Michigan State, #18 Wisconsin, and #25 Minnesota. Two of those were on the road, and one was on a neutral site, which was absolute destruction. Also, unlike 2017 Alabama, 2014 OSU won their conference, which alone should put them above 2017 Alabama.

Having a team that won the NC (in blowout fashion, at that) with that resume at #10 is absurd.

 

[ericd7633]

2016 Clemson was one of the least impressive NC winners in recent memory. They had 6 ranked wins, which is nice, but they struggled what seemed like every other week. They weren't dominant against any high-end teams other than OSU, who was probably Urban's second-worst team at OSU.

2019 Clemson had one close game the whole season because their schedule was complete and total shit. They had one "impressive" win all year long, and that game was highly criticized on a national level for multiple reasons.

2014 OSU had 3 ranked wins heading into bowl season - #8 Michigan State, #18 Wisconsin, and #25 Minnesota. Two of those were on the road, and one was on a neutral site, which was absolute destruction. Also, unlike 2017 Alabama, 2014 OSU won their conference, which alone should put them above 2017 Alabama.

Having a team that won the NC (in blowout fashion, at that) with that resume at #10 is absurd.

Clemson 2016 and Ohio State 2014 had similar seasons, like I said both were similar in efficiency metrics, with OSU 2014 actually slightly better ahead. Clemson played the much more difficult schedule. That part isn't really close. You bring up resumes at the end, but have a problem with 2016 Clemson being rated better when they had a better resume, so that doesn't really add up?

Clemson's 2019 schedule was bad. OSU did play a better schedule no doubt, but neither played an overwhelming difficult schedule. But Clemson 2019 played better against that schedule than OSU 2014 did IMO. Either way though, the part of this ranking where OSU lacks wasn't something made up by me, rather part of the inclusion of this ranking to take more things into account.

 

[Across The Field]

Clemson 2016 and Ohio State 2014 had similar seasons, like I said both were similar in efficiency metrics, with OSU 2014 actually slightly better ahead. Clemson played the much more difficult schedule. That part isn't really close. You bring up resumes at the end, but have a problem with 2016 Clemson being rated better when they had a better resume, so that doesn't really add up?

Clemson's 2019 schedule was bad. OSU did play a better schedule no doubt, but neither played an overwhelming difficult schedule. But Clemson 2019 played better against that schedule than OSU 2014 did IMO. Either way though, the part of this ranking where OSU lacks wasn't something made up by me, rather part of the inclusion of this ranking to take more things into account.

2016 Clemson had a tougher schedule but it wasn't "much more difficult" as you said. They also looked a lot uglier doing it than OSU did. They struggled against every ranked team they faced but one, lost to a worse team than 2014 OSU did, and should've lost to another unranked team if their kicker didn't choke on a gimme FG. They won 6 games against ranked teams with a total margin of victory of 57 points. 2014 OSU beat 4 ranked teams by a combined margin of victory of 100 points.

It's absurd that you're going to try and lump 2014 OSU's schedule with 2019 Clemson's but say that 2016 Clemson played a "much more difficult schedule" than 2014 OSU. That's ridiculous.

 

[ericd7633]

2016 Clemson had a tougher schedule but it wasn't "much more difficult" as you said. They also looked a lot uglier doing it than OSU did. They struggled against every ranked team they faced but one, lost to a worse team than 2014 OSU did, and should've lost to another unranked team if their kicker didn't choke on a gimme FG. They won 6 games against ranked teams with a total margin of victory of 57 points. 2014 OSU beat 4 ranked teams by a combined margin of victory of 100 points.

It's absurd that you're going to try and lump 2014 OSU's schedule with 2019 Clemson's but say that 2016 Clemson played a "much more difficult schedule" than 2014 OSU. That's ridiculous.

I've admitted, from an efficiency standpoint, OSU was slightly better. But the schedule discrepancy is more apparent with the BCS methodology. Also, how is 2014 VT worse than 2016 Pitt? Are you confusing 2017 Clemson with 2016? If so that would make sense.

Clemson 2016 had the #3 SOS according to Sagarin, Ohio State 2014 #29. Clemson's SOS in 2019 was #47. So the gap between 2016 Clemson and 2014 OSU was larger than 2014 OSU and 2019 Clemson. Which was my larger overall point. Clemson played a really really tough schedule in 2016. Ohio State 2014 played a good schedule, 2019 Clemson above average. Neither great though.

 

[Across The Field]

I've admitted, from an efficiency standpoint, OSU was slightly better. But the schedule discrepancy is more apparent with the BCS methodology. Also, how is 2014 VT worse than 2016 Pitt? Are you confusing 2017 Clemson with 2016? If so that would make sense.

Clemson 2016 had the #3 SOS according to Sagarin, Ohio State 2014 #29. Clemson's SOS in 2019 was #47. So the gap between 2016 Clemson and 2014 OSU was larger than 2014 OSU and 2019 Clemson. Which was my larger overall point. Clemson played a really really tough schedule in 2016. Ohio State 2014 played a good schedule, 2019 Clemson above average. Neither great though.

Oh you're right, I mixed up 2016 Pitt with 2017 Syracuse. 2016 Pitt and 2014 VT were comparable.

Clemson's SOS was only 47 because of OSU and LSU. Otherwise it was total trash. They played one ranked team before the bowls while OSU played 3 in 2014. The B1G wasn't a juggernaut in 2014, but it was still far better than the ACC in 2019. Any metric that puts 2019 Clemson ahead of 2014 Ohio State is clearly very flawed.

 

[Blackshirts BLVD]

 

[ericd7633]

Oh you're right, I mixed up 2016 Pitt with 2017 Syracuse. 2016 Pitt and 2014 VT were comparable.

Clemson's SOS was only 47 because of OSU and LSU. Otherwise it was total trash. They played one ranked team before the bowls while OSU played 3 in 2014. The B1G wasn't a juggernaut in 2014, but it was still far better than the ACC in 2019. Any metric that puts 2019 Clemson ahead of 2014 Ohio State is clearly very flawed.

And OSU's was #29 because they played Bama and Oregon. That number includes all games played.

And every BCS/efficiency model methodology had 2019 Clemson ahead. They were that dominate during the regular season. I'm even weighing the title for OSU and they still fall slightly behind them. But even you said yourself 2019 OSU is better than 2014 OSU. So I don't see what the issue is with 2019 Clemson being ahead.

 

[Across The Field]

And OSU's was #29 because they played Bama and Oregon. That number includes all games played.

And every BCS/efficiency model methodology had 2019 Clemson ahead. They were that dominate during the regular season. I'm even weighing the title for OSU and they still fall slightly behind them. But even you said yourself 2019 OSU is better than 2014 OSU. So I don't see what the issue is with 2019 Clemson being ahead.

So 2014 OSU had a much tougher schedule, won the national title, had twice as many ranked wins (and much more impressive in those wins), yet somehow they're behind 2019 Clemson? Yes, I will reiterate - any metric that has 2019 Clemson ahead of 2014 OSU is extremely flawed.

Also, I said that if Justin Fields is 100% healthy, I have them ahead of 2014 OSU. I also have them well ahead of 2019 Clemson.

 

[DeafOranguntan]

As everyone else said, tremendously stupid list. Whatever metrics you used were garbage. First, Clemson beat their playoff opponents in 2018 by a larger margin of victory against better opponents than LSU did last year. Clemson lost what was likely the greatest defensive line ever and the rest of their front 7 and Venables was just trying to disguise it all season with Simmons. Second, how do you have 2016 Alabama over 2016 Clemson? Clemson beat Alabama. Same for 2019. Clemson beat Ohio State and dominated the last 3 quarters once they settled down. 2017 Alabama wasn't phenomenal. Clemson just sucked with Kelly Bryant or they would have won that game (and 2017 Clemson is overrated too). And 2014 Ohio State is rated too low. I don't know what metrics you used, but this list is stupid. If I were estimating a top 25, I'd have something like (I could be forgetting somebody and you could argue a few, but this is just off the top of my head, not relying on dumb "metrics"):

1. 2018 Clemson - Best defense, phenomenal offense, beat their opponents by 28 points missing 3 key starters
2. 2019 LSU - Maybe the most impressive offense ever, good defense
3. 2016 Clemson - Great defense (held a good Ohio State to nothing), and Deshaun Watson/Mike Williams
4. 2015 Alabama - One of Saban's most loaded teams in history behind Derrick Henry, weakest position was QB
5. 2014 Ohio State - One of the best defenses on this list (Bosa, Lee, and Apple), Zeke, played best in big games
6. 2018 Alabama - There's a reason people said this was the best team in history, most dominant team in SEC play ever
7. 2016 Alabama - Fantastic team, very similar to the squad in 2015, Clemson basically just exhausted them
8. 2015 Clemson - First time in the spotlight playing #4, Saban had to resort to crazy calls to win
9. 2019 Clemson - There was a ton of talent on this team, but something just wasn't right. The new defensive line killed them and Trevor Lawrence was too in his head that season, but Clemson had great WRs, RB, and an offensive line
10. 2019 Ohio State - probably the second best defensive line on this list, along with a phenom QB and RB
11. 2017 Alabama (I think this was probably the weakest national champion, but they were national champion)
12. 2014 Oregon - Mariota was just a generational player playing in the perfect system for him
13. 2017 Georgia - Good all around team behind a phenomenal rushing attack (second best UGA team since '80)
14. 2018 Notre Dame - Probably the least talented unit in this list, but they had a lot of heart and challenged #1 more than #6. Very good in the trenches with excellent corners
15. 2017 Oklahoma - Mayfield played the best game Oklahoma's had in decades, but just came up short
16. 2016 Washington - Similar to #14. Played with a lot of heart and while #7 controlled the game, never went away
17. 2014 Alabama - The running backs were phenomenal with a good line, but defense couldn't handle Zeke and Sims was Sims
18. 2017 Clemson - ton of talent, similar defense to #1, but horrendous, vanilla offense run by pick machine
19. 2018 Oklahoma - Kyler Murray and good receivers/linemen, worst defense in history

Honestly, I don't think it's worth discussing any more teams. I could argue Florida State's 59-20 loss was better than Ohio State's 31-0 loss, Michigan State's 38-0, or Oklahoma's 37-17 loss. That might be true. But most years, we get matchups between teams that shouldn't be there and powerhouses. I think there's a big dropoff after #10 and another one at maybe 15...

 

[DeafOranguntan]

So 2014 OSU had a much tougher schedule, won the national title, had twice as many ranked wins (and much more impressive in those wins), yet somehow they're behind 2019 Clemson? Yes, I will reiterate - any metric that has 2019 Clemson ahead of 2014 OSU is extremely flawed.

Also, I said that if Justin Fields is 100% healthy, I have them ahead of 2014 OSU. I also have them well ahead of 2019 Clemson.

Sure kid, that's why you lost. We can always play the coulda woulda shoulda game.

 

[Across The Field]

Sure kid, that's why you lost. We can always play the coulda woulda shoulda game.

That's fine. Clemson scored more points than OSU did that weren't stolen by the refs. That's why you won. That's not even including the rest of the officiating fuckery. Give us a 100% Fields and give Clemson Lawrence running on a sprained MCL and OSU wins by 20+. No questions asked.

 

[Wamu]

Not sure if there is such a list out there, but I was curious how the teams have stacked up through the first 6 years of the CFP era. I put together a 10 metric ranking system to accomplish this. I did put added weight towards winning a CFP game, and winning the CFP title, along with the other metrics used.

Here is what the data spit out for the top 25 teams:

1. 2019 LSU
2. 2018 Clemson
3. 2018 Alabama
4. 2016 Alabama
5. 2015 Alabama
6. 2016 Clemson
7. 2017 Alabama
8. 2019 Ohio State
9. 2019 Clemson
10. 2014 Ohio State
11. 2014 Oregon
12. 2015 Clemson
13. 2017 Georgia
14. 2017 Ohio State
15. 2019 Alabama
16. 2014 TCU
17. 2014 Alabama
18. 2017 Penn State
19. 2017 Wisconsin
20. 2018 Notre Dame
21. 2015 Ohio State
22. 2017 Central Florida
23. 2017 Clemson
24. 2014 Florida State
25. 2018 Georgia

Next 5: 2017 Oklahoma, 2016 Washington, 2018 Ohio State, 2016 Michigan, 2014 Georgia.

It was interesting to me to see how many non CFP teams made the top 24. But I think that makes sense because I think most can agree a team like 2019 Bama is probably better than a team like 2015 Michigan State. Also, of note, every Bama team since the CFP era made the list and all were in the top 15. Clemson had 5 of their teams make the top 25 and Ohio State had 4 of their teams make the top 25. Conversely, Oklahoma, which has made 4 CFP's, didn't have a single team make the top 25, with 2017 Oklahoma missing by 1. The 2015 CFP was the worst CFP in this era, with only 2 teams making the top 25. 2017 was the most top heavy year with 7 teams making the top 25.

No UCF? @UCFhonors will have something to say about that.

 

[ericd7633]

So 2014 OSU had a much tougher schedule, won the national title, had twice as many ranked wins (and much more impressive in those wins), yet somehow they're behind 2019 Clemson? Yes, I will reiterate - any metric that has 2019 Clemson ahead of 2014 OSU is extremely flawed.

Also, I said that if Justin Fields is 100% healthy, I have them ahead of 2014 OSU. I also have them well ahead of 2019 Clemson.

Both finished 14-1. We know the SOS #'s.
Clemson's MOV - 33.7
OSU's MOV - 25.2
OSU has the better wins, OSU has the worst loss. OSU has a title. Clemson has a title appearance.

The placing in these rankings is miniscule. It's largely based on Clemson being better during the regular season(including CCG), and also beating 2019 OSU(even though they aren't ahead of them). Clemson 2019 is also unfortunate in the fact they had to play 2019 LSU.

 

[The Derski]

No UCF? @UCFhonors will have something to say about that.

They’re #22