2019 FA thread

[Rollingthndr]

Probably not after all. read the following article and it seems like they'll use Marvin as trade bait during FA or before/during draft nights.

Nice research but he better add some talent at WR in FA then if he plans to dump Jones. Those guys that Stafford was throwing to at the end of the year were absolute TRASH.

I understand what he's trying to do where he can do like Belicheck and just play matchups. But he is forgetting a couple huge components. 1) Stafford sure and hell isn't Bradyesque in any way shape or form. Stafford isn't even close to as good as a Philip Rivers. 2) The offensive line is flat out atrocious. 3) If all there is to throw to is Golladay. Nobody will respect the passing game and sell out to stop Johnson.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

2018 NFL Free Agents and Free Agency Contracts

Here’s one I use. I like it from OTC because it gives the ball park figures to kinda see what you’re looking at paying

When you realize you should read entire thread and then go back and post.

just take me off your ignore list and then it'll be okay. lol

 

[BigKen]

Is there a door 3?

Oakland??

 

[Old Lion]

articles that should be read, imo.

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/...inn-detroit-lions-no-rush-next-oc/2484292002/

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2019/01/04/golden-tate-trade-lions-eagles/2482105002/

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2018/12/31/detroit-lions-marvin-jones-trade/2454685002/

6 takeaways from Lions GM Bob Quinn’s end-of-season press conference

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/...quinn-matt-patricia-detroit-lions/2482551002/

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/...atricia-sexual-assault-allegation/2481610002/

The EOS press conference article was good. The rest were opinions from writers which I couldnt give 2 shits about.

 

[Old Lion]

I like PFF. Not sure about their Tracy Walker grading cause I honestly don't remember that guy making one play all year, unless it was later in the year after my passion for watching these bums was already faded. All the rest of the Defensive guys I agree on.

Also noteworthy that TJ Lang was our highest rated O-lineman? YIKES

TW3 played well when he was in there which was not too often. He had a pick six called back because that jerk Navin Johnson got called for holding. Had another INT as well. Keep in mind that only Slay and Diggs had INTs this year besides TW3. Noone else. And in very limited playing time.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

@Old Lion

SpoTrac Market value is hit or miss but these might give you an idea outside of looking through OTC positional

Trey Flowers

Preston Smith

Dee Ford

Jadeveon Clowney

DeMarcus Lawrence

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

The biggest advantage to signing Trey Flowers, as you stated Old Lion, is that he already knows most of MP's system. I assume MP has made a few changes here or there.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Here's some other SpoTrac Market Value "Guesses"

Tevin Coleman
BB_72; Alex, I'll take Tevin Coleman for 5M or even TJ Yeldon as mentioned by @Old Lion

Mark Ingram

Golden Tate

Grady Jarrett
BB_72; not that I want Jarrett, I found it interesting

C.J. Mosley
BB_72; I think they're short 2.3M per year avg on this guess

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Flower's will probably end up getting 5 yr 82.5M-85M with at least 45-50M in guarantees, imo

 

[Old Lion]

Flower's will probably end up getting 5 yr 82.5M-85M with at least 45-50M in guarantees, imo

That sounds a little high but only 25 and it is better then giving it to the 39 year old we currently have at that position. I would grab Preston Smith too. The rest would be too expensive for what they IMO.

 

[Rollingthndr]

That sounds a little high but only 25 and it is better then giving it to the 39 year old we currently have at that position. I would grab Preston Smith too. The rest would be too expensive for what they IMO.

17 million a year is very salty.
We gave Ansah what? 15 and that is an average of the top 5 salaries at DE?
So basically we would have to pay him 1-2 over DE money?
Dude is maybe a top 10 player but certainly not in the JJ Watt class of talent.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

That sounds a little high but only 25 and it is better then giving it to the 39 year old we currently have at that position. I would grab Preston Smith too. The rest would be too expensive for what they IMO.

I'm probably a little high but it's not the total contract, its the total guaranteed money.

The only current competition Flowers has is

#1 Lawrence..... he's averaged 12.75 sacks last 2 years. only had 1 sack through 9 GP in 2016

#2 Clowney…….. he's averaged 8 sacks last 3 years

#3 Ford (KC)….. he's averaged 10.5 2 of last 3 years. had 2 sacks in 2017 only had 6 GP that year

#4 Flowers...….. he's averaged 7 the last 3 years

#5 P. Smith...…. he's averaged 5.75 sacks the last 3 years

There are 9 out of the top 11 teams with at least 53M in cap space that need an edge rusher depending on who it is and what base front they run.

If Dallas loses Lawrence they'll overpay because it's JJ.

teams in 9 of top 11 most cap space needing an edge rusher starting with top cap space

Colts, NYJ, Bills, Raiders, 49'ers, Cardinals, Hawks, Boys, Bengals

who wouldn't want to go to Colts, Boys, 49'ers, Hawks that all have good young qb's. Maybe Jets with Darnold but depends on who becomes HC. Cards, Raiders and Bengals are dumpster fires right now, imo.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

That sounds a little high but only 25 and it is better then giving it to the 39 year old we currently have at that position. I would grab Preston Smith too. The rest would be too expensive for what they IMO.

It'll become a bidding a war because edge rushers are always in demand and especially when they have pro experience. 5 guys and 9 teams needing at least one.

Some of those teams have other players whose contracts expire at end of 2019 season but 45-50M in guaranteed money is easily dumped in 3 years if the player doesn't pan out. 20M signing bonus over 5 years is 4M per year. Base salaries of 9M, 9m and 7m eats up 25M in guaranteed. that's 45M in guaranteed money. The only thing left after 3 years is 2 years of 4M each in signing bonus.

Real Money base salaries would be 13M per year but not all guaranteed.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

17 million a year is very salty.
We gave Ansah what? 15 and that is an average of the top 5 salaries at DE?

Ansah and Lawrence both got 17.1M this last year. One team benefitted.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

That sounds a little high but only 25 and it is better then giving it to the 39 year old we currently have at that position. I would grab Preston Smith too. The rest would be too expensive for what they IMO.

17 million a year is very salty.
We gave Ansah what? 15 and that is an average of the top 5 salaries at DE?
So basically we would have to pay him 1-2 over DE money?
Dude is maybe a top 10 player but certainly not in the JJ Watt class of talent.

I'm not saying "I Think" Trey Flowers is worth a 5 year 85M deal but I'm willing to throw out a guess some team like the NYJ, Raiders or Bills make a stupid offer to him for near that.

I believe his MAX is 13-14 per year for 5 years but that he gets much more than that.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

@Old Lion and @Rollingthndr I've got some numbers to throw at both of you with players who've had nearly the same stats as Flowers prior to them signing huge deals similar to one I have pegged for Flowers upcoming and the Cap Space was 12-25 less than what's expected this year.

I'll post them tomorrow because it's a long list (9 players and stats) and I don't have an excel software to make it easier.

Olivier Vernon signed a 85M/40M guarantee/5 year in 2016... cap space was 155 for teams. He has the same amount of sacks as Trey Flowers over the last 3 years and just above that average in 3 prior years before getting that deal.

DT Kawann Short80.5M/45M guaranteed/5 year in 2017. he has 16.5 sacks over last 3 years. and had almost the same sacks prior to this deal that Flowers has had over last 3 years (which is 21 sacks 2016-2018).

there's 7 others to fully post and 13 overall but I am not doing it tonight.

BTW, JJ Watt only played 3 games and 5 games respectively in 2016 and 2017 and had a combined 1.5 sacks during those combined games in both years.

 

[Old Lion]

I'm not saying "I Think" Trey Flowers is worth a 5 year 85M deal but I'm willing to throw out a guess some team like the NYJ, Raiders or Bills make a stupid offer to him for near that.

I believe his MAX is 13-14 per year for 5 years but that he gets much more than that.

I am hoping that because he is more of a flex system player that it does not happen. If he were a true 4-3 end or 3-4 end then I would be more worried. Unless another team is playing that system they should be smart enough to realize he may not be nearly as effective straight up. I would be OK with the 13-14 mil per year at his age and the fact that he perfect for this system.

Okwara and Kennard have been pretty good too, but having Flowers solidifies those positions for us. Our D-line is shaping up. A'shawn ha re-emerged and adding Snacks of course. RJF has some intangibles too but we need 1 more there. Gabe Atkins filled in this year but I dont know if he is the answer.

Adding Flowers would allow us to draft White instead of Allen although either would probably be fine at that point. If we dont we would definitely have to go for Allen.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

@Old Lion; here's a link to upcoming scheduled dates for all-star games new league year 2019 etc. It'll probably get lost in this thread.

2018-2019 National Football League Important Dates

2018-19 NFL Important Dates | NFL Football Operations


January 19 -- East-West Shrine Game, Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida.

January 26 -- Senior Bowl, Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, Alabama.

February 19 -- First day for clubs to designate Franchise or Transition Players.

February 26-March 4 -- Combine Timing and Testing, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana.

March 5 -- Prior to 4:00 p.m., New York time, deadline for clubs to designate Franchise or Transition Players.

March 11-13 -- During the period beginning at 12 noon, New York time, on March 11th and ending at 3:59:59 p.m., New York time, on March 13th, clubs are permitted to contact, and enter into contract negotiations with, the certified agents of players who will become Unrestricted Free Agents upon the expiration of their 2018 player contracts at 4:00 p.m., New York time, on March 13. However, a contract cannot be executed with a new club until 4:00 p.m., New York time, on March 13.

During the above two-day negotiating period, a prospective unrestricted free agents who is not represented by an NFLPA Certified Contract Advisor is permitted to communicate directly with a new club's front office officials (excluding the head coach and other members of the club's coaching staff) regarding contract negotiations.

March 13 -- The 2019 League Year and Free Agency period begin at 4:00 p.m., New York time.

The first day of the 2019 League Year will end at 11:59:59 p.m., New York time, on March 13. Clubs will receive a personnel notice that will include all transactions submitted to the League office during the period between 4:00 p.m., New York time, and 11:59:59 p.m., New York time, on March 13.

March 13 -- Trading period for 2019 begins at 4:00 p.m., New York time, after expiration of all 2018 contracts.

 

[Rollingthndr]

Olivier Vernon signed a 85M/40M guarantee/5 year in 2016... cap space was 155 for teams. He has the same amount of sacks as Trey Flowers over the last 3 years and just above that average in 3 prior years before getting that deal.

Vernon is the guy he most reminds me of actually. Good player for sure. Which Flowers is definitely good.

DT Kawann Short80.5M/45M guaranteed/5 year in 2017. he has 16.5 sacks over last 3 years. and had almost the same sacks prior to this deal that Flowers has had over last 3 years (which is 21 sacks 2016-2018).

Short is more of a DT and I think Flowers is a DE right?

BTW, JJ Watt only played 3 games and 5 games respectively in 2016 and 2017 and had a combined 1.5 sacks during those combined games in both years.

That is just health. Flowers has better numbers while JJ was hurt but it's apples to oranges here. Watt is a 3 time defensive player of the year and generational talent. He came back and immediately got 16 sacks this year. Flowers has 21 CAREER sacks.

 

[Rollingthndr]

Adding Flowers would allow us to draft White instead of Allen although either would probably be fine at that point. If we dont we would definitely have to go for Allen.

Why not both?