Trading DOWN

[jakedog56]

I saw a article that compared a bunch of the major sites grades. Only one A- and that was for the 9ers. The consensus grade for the Seahawks is a B-, which is about midpoint.

 

[MrS]

You are focusing on specific players that may or may not pan out.

Ruben Foster doesn't have a position to play for us right now. And, IMO, if you are going to draft a LB in the first round they need to be transcendent players. Maybe Foster will be one of those players but that seems unlikely.

The draft is always a crap shoot. Focusing on individual players is pointless.

He coyld have filled our olb spot, he is potentially a transcendent player like you said. What makes it worse is we gave him to the niners for a 4th and 6th round pick from the jags we got for moving down again

Have you seen our record of drafting after the top two rounds?

Lockett was a 3rd rounder, who else has worked out recently? Most of the homeruns were taken in 2012 and earlier. Not a lot has come from more recent drafts

 

[flyerhawk]

He coyld have filled our olb spot, he is potentially a transcendent player like you said. What makes it worse is we gave him to the niners for a 4th and 6th round pick from the jags we got for moving down again

But this boils down to you suggesting that your grading of Foster is better than the Seahawks front office. That seems really unlikely.

If the Seahawks thought he was a transcendent player that would fit in their system, they would have drafted him. IMO, I think it is dubious to suggest that a guy taken with the 31st pick is projected to be a transcendent player.

He's a talented linebacker in a league where linebackers are not prioritized. Will linebackers, in particular, are something this FO puts very few resources into.

Lockett was a 3rd rounder, who else has worked out recently? Most of the homeruns were taken in 2012 and earlier. Not a lot has come from more recent drafts

Part of the problem is that there are fewer positions for us to get home runs with. After the 2013 season this team was pretty loaded. There were only a handful of positions that weren't filled.

Which doesn't mean they couldn't have done better. They most certainly could have. Especially on OL. But they have several starters from the past few drafts.

 

[MrS]

foster fell for off field issues and potential injury issues, not because of talent issues.

if he ends up an all pro and mcdowell ends up a bust, its a huge blunder.

 

[chf]

If he ends up an all pro and mcdowell ends up a bust, its a huge blunder.

Way out on a limb with that.

 

[JMR]

Where was Foster going to play on this team? Isn't he like 225 pounds? Already with shoulder issues? Our open LB spot is SAM, and 225 lbs is not gonna cut it there. Had the Hawks not traded down at all, I think there's a better chance they would have still picked McDowell over Foster.

 

[Anointed One]

Where was Foster going to play on this team? Isn't he like 225 pounds? Already with shoulder issues? Our open LB spot is SAM, and 225 lbs is not gonna cut it there. Had the Hawks not traded down at all, I think there's a better chance they would have still picked McDowell over Foster.

Carroll said McDowell is who they were targeting at #26 anyways... They rolled the dice, w/ plenty of homework and picked up 4 additional picks to boot... They got their man and 4 additional picks... I'd say that's a pretty damn good win...

 

[flyerhawk]

foster fell for off field issues and potential injury issues, not because of talent issues.

if he ends up an all pro and mcdowell ends up a bust, its a huge blunder.

Listening to the Ringer podcast, it sounds like he might need surgery this summer.

 

[Uhsplit]

So are we supposed to ignore the "experts" or adore them?

Ignore them. Let your HC be your guide until he cant do it any more.

 

[Screamin12th]

So you think that nearly every Day 2 pick we made was a bad pick?

No their picks were ok but the value was a little low. They grabbed way to many players that i felt were drafted to high. The players they got have flaws and were graded lower for a reason thats all i am saying. If they can get Malik McDowell to play then thats a pretty good pick up but this dude was taking GAMES off not plays so thats a BIG time worry. How many players have you seen take GAMES off and make it in the NFL? lol

then the reaches. I value the 2nd day a D- the 3rd day a C+. The guys they got on the 3rd day were a little better value picks.

 

[flyerhawk]

No their picks were ok but the value was a little low. They grabbed way to many players that i felt were drafted to high. The players they got have flaws and were graded lower for a reason thats all i am saying. If they can get Malik McDowell to play then thats a pretty good pick up but this dude was taking GAMES off not plays so thats a BIG time worry. How many players have you seen take GAMES off and make it in the NFL? lol

then the reaches. I value the 2nd day a D- the 3rd day a C+. The guys they got on the 3rd day were a little better value picks.

Just curious but how many of those day 2 picks did you watch play?

At this point it is obvious that you just watch to sound like you know more than you really do. I'm sure you would have drafted sure fire players in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

 

[JMR]

No their picks were ok but the value was a little low. They grabbed way to many players that i felt were drafted to high. The players they got have flaws and were graded lower for a reason thats all i am saying. If they can get Malik McDowell to play then thats a pretty good pick up but this dude was taking GAMES off not plays so thats a BIG time worry. How many players have you seen take GAMES off and make it in the NFL? lol

then the reaches. I value the 2nd day a D- the 3rd day a C+. The guys they got on the 3rd day were a little better value picks.

Graded lower by who? I'm just looking at NFL.com (and I'm aware there are a number of other sites with grades, but NFL.com seems like a good start point), and Malik McDowell has a 6.2 grade. That is tied with Lamp as the best grade of all players drafted in round 2, and it's better than most of the players drafted in round 1 outside the top 6. In fact, only 8 players from 1.7-1.32 had a better grade than McDowell (half of those were 6.3, so a negligible difference). That seems like pretty damn good value to me, and they were paid 4 extra draft picks to take him at 35 instead of 26. McDowell had a better grade than Kevin King, Ruben Foster, and Cam Robinson.

Pocic had a 5.7 grade, which is right there with all of the other players drafted in that area. Commensurate value.

This pattern continues all through the 4 picks we had in the 3rd round as well -- all the players we took have grades that are right there with the other players drafted in that area. I think it's awfully difficult to make an objective argument that says the Hawks didn't get value and/or took guys with lower grades, unless you're going to dig around until you find some site somewhere that supports what you want to say. It still looks to me like your over-arching theme is they didn't do what you wanted, so it must not be good. Your hope has to be the picks don't work out so you can come back and proclaim to be right, and I have no idea why you would be rooting for that.

 

[JMR]

Carroll said McDowell is who they were targeting at #26 anyways... They rolled the dice, w/ plenty of homework and picked up 4 additional picks to boot... They got their man and 4 additional picks... I'd say that's a pretty damn good win...

Yeah, I heard PC indicate that in the post draft presser. I guess that what they all say though -- "this is the guy we really wanted" cuz it's not like they're going to say how they were really hoping for Kevin King but settled for McDowell when King was no longer there.

The way I think it went down is they had about a half dozen players more or less equally graded when they came up on pick 26. Who exactly those players were is probably not something we'll ever know for sure, but certainly McDowell was 1 of them. That's when they decided to trade down a handful of spots for the near impossibility that all of the players would be taken before they could pick at 31. They get up at 31, and enough of those players are still there that they do it again.....then 1 more time from 34 to 35. If it had been Lamp or Robinson or ____ that would have been there at 35 instead of McDowell, they probably would have been saying more or less the same things about how that was who they wanted.

If they had a player graded head and shoulders above the other cluster of guys at the top of their board at 26 (or 31, or 35....), I think they would have held ground and taken him right there. Instead, they take a calculated risk in exchange for 4 more picks. I think it's a good strategy even if McDowell doesn't pan out.

 

[flyerhawk]

If they had a player graded head and shoulders above the other cluster of guys at the top of their board at 26 (or 31, or 35....), I think they would have held ground and taken him right there. Instead, they take a calculated risk in exchange for 4 more picks. I think it's a good strategy even if McDowell doesn't pan out.

This is what it boils down to.

Even if Foster or King or Ramcyzk or Robinson turn into studs that doesn't mean that they were wrong to do what they did. They would only be wrong if they graded one of those guys significantly higher than the other players in that cluster. Perhaps they mis-graded and one of those players will be stud but that's just 2nd guessing.

Every draft is about maximizing your chances of success. IMO, the Hawks have a far better chance of landing a top tier player with 6 picks in the first 3 rounds than they would have had with 3 picks in the first 3 rounds and the #26 pick.

 

[JMR]

Lockett was a 3rd rounder, who else has worked out recently? Most of the homeruns were taken in 2012 and earlier. Not a lot has come from more recent drafts

The only picks that I think you can call "home runs" from the 4th or later are Kam Chancellor (2010), KJ Wright (2011) and Sherm (2011). But there's been at least 1 hit from the 4th round or later in every draft since 2012:

2013: Luke Willson. You also have Spencer Ware here, who has been a quality player in KC. Pretty bad draft class for the entire league (evidenced by the fact we now have the #2 and #3 overall picks from this draft signed on year FA deals).

2014: Cassius Marsh. KPL has been good on ST and a borderline starter.

2015: Glowinski. Only a 1 year starter, but he's only been around 2 seasons.

2016: just too early call, but Quinton Jefferson may develop into a key contributor.

2012 had Jeremy Lane & Sweezy, which I don't think is much different than 2013-2015. The truth is, if you get 1 solid contributor from the 4th round and beyond then that's doing about as good as you can expect.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Seattle would've never drafted Foster, lol. Kidding me? We ran a 3 LBer set like 15% of the time last year. We were operating in the nickel like 3/4 of the time. And why do you think 2 of the safeties we drafted are dominant in the run game and press and not the pass attack? Because we're going to be running that nickel set a ton. That's the reason Seattle made zero effort to even draft another linebacker.

In addition, we went and got McDougald, ANOTHER safety who plays the run very well, and Carroll/Schneider have no issue moving safeties to corners/nickel, whatever. Lane is a pure pass pro guy and he's injured 24/7 anyway.

Seattle Seahawks: Breaking Down the 4-2-5 Defense

Foster would've been quite possibly the stupidest pick of the draft if you know what Seattle wants to run and they took him.

 

[dude82]

This is more draft-adjacent news than draft news, but I didn't want to start a whole new thread for it.

Jake Heaps has signed with the Hawks and will be around to compete for the backup spot this summer along with the UDFA QB the Hawks picked up.

 

[Screamin12th]

This is more draft-adjacent news than draft news, but I didn't want to start a whole new thread for it.

Jake Heaps has signed with the Hawks and will be around to compete for the backup spot this summer along with the UDFA QB the Hawks picked up.

Like this pick up. Kids been here before and knows the offense and he looked good the last time he was here. Starter no, starter in a pinch, sure it could be worse much worse. Don't think he beats out Boykin but he might not have to.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Like this pick up. Kids been here before and knows the offense and he looked good the last time he was here. Starter no, starter in a pinch, sure it could be worse much worse. Don't think he beats out Boykin but he might not have to.

I like it. Thought he gave Boykin a run for his money last off season.

 

[Uhsplit]

foster fell for off field issues and potential injury issues, not because of talent issues.

if he ends up an all pro and mcdowell ends up a bust, its a huge blunder.

Expect to lots of 4-2-5 schemes as the passing game has become more important and utilized over time. If you agree with that, then we have 2 superb starters at LB. It could be a waste of a #1 pick to pick a position that is becoming less valuable over time. I am pretty sure that is where Pete is heading with our personnel groupings as we have avoided the 3rd LB spot for the last 2 drafts and hardly used a 3rd LB at all last year.
Kam might play a hybrid LB/SS along with having one of the new SS additions playing the typical SS spot.
Evolution man, evolution.

edit: I just noticed Sharks 4-2-5 post mentioned earlier. Duh