so here is the deal concerning KC

[Stymietee]

the thing is he shouldnt be leaving that is the whole thing . this guy is what we have been looking for , for 2 decades and i dont buy you can plug just anyone in there and get the same or better production . and that is what we want , to move forward not tread water at 500 or take a step back and be the houston texans of the past few years

now all that being said if you are asking me which way to go the i say trot out colt , forget about sign his equals AJ , hoyer , mccown , grap, mcgloin and hope you hit on a qb without trading up with good draft capitol we could use elsewhere

we made a whole now we didnt have at qb , so upgrades on defense will get pushed aside until the qb is found

Again we have to be very careful about language, what we "should" be doing is a far cry from what's actually being done. I've had girlfriends who used to try this shit on me all of the time....."If you love me then you "should........" To which I would respond, "well I guess I don't love your ass then, 'cause your BS ain't working!"

Interesting how that same thing applies here. Kirk and his team are saying that, "if you love me, you "should" prove that to me. The floor starts at 24M per" The organization repeatedly responds, "Well, jackass, I guess we don't love your ass as much as you think, here's our offer."

 

[skinsdad62]

still dean silent

 

[skinsdad62]

Seahawks fan here. Local sports radio had an absolute blast counting the number of times your GM called Kirk by the wrong name. Gave us at least an hour of good laughs. As bad as that gaffe was, not offering Cousins the highest value QB contract in the NFL was far worse. My reasoning follows.

Cousins didn’t get the chance to be a starter until Washington gave up on salvaging RGIII. The only real data we have on him is his 4th and 5th seasons in the league. Comparing him to other QBs 4th and 5th seasons might be slightly biased in favor of Cousins given that he has incidentally had an excellent 2 seasons (acknowledging possible confirmation bias), but most of his peers got to start well before their 4th season, and Kirk's relative lack of in-game experience serves as a disadvantage for Cousins in this review of NFL statistics.



Anyway, pro-football-reference.com has this incredible search tool, and I created this sortable list of cumulative stats from a QB's 4th and 5th seasons in the league. Search criteria are: NFL seasons from 2002 - 2016, players drafted (or otherwise entering league) between 1999-2012, over 500 pass attempts over the 2 combines seasons, at least 20 starts over the combined 2 seasons. That’s kind of a level playing field with which to compare Cousins with other NFL QBs at the same stage of development.



There are 38 players that fit the criteria, and in addition to Cousins, they include the likes of Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Phillip Rivers, Russell Wilson, Andy Dalton, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Matt Stafford, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Daunte Culpepper, Joe Flacco, and David Carr (Peyton Manning was drafted before the sample period). That's a pretty solid list of franchise QBs.



Looking at the search form, we find that Cousins was asked to throw the ball a tremendous number of times, and his yardage production was second only to Matt Stafford.

• 3rd in total attempts over the two seasons (only surpassed by Stafford and Ryan)
• 2nd in total passing yards (behind only Stafford)
• 2nd in passing yards/game (behind only Stafford)

Despite the heavy workload asked of Cousins, he still managed to be incredibly efficient, basically ending up tied for 1st in efficiency with Russell Wilson's 4th and 5th seasons.

• 1st in completion %age
• 12th in TD %age
• 4th in INT %age (2.0%, Wilson leads the way at 1.85%)
• 2nd in sack frequency (partially a product of OL, but mostly related to QB play)
  
• 2nd in passer rating (behind only Wilson)
• 2nd in Y/A (behind only Wilson)
• 1st in ANY/A

That is elite production for his stage of career. That is elite efficiency, again for his stage of career.



Ignoring stage of career tells a similar story:

In 2015, Cousins was 7th in DYAR and 6th in DVOA and 6th in QBR, in his first full year as a starter, only beat out by players .
In 2016, Cousins was 3rd in DYAR and 5th in DVOA and 5th in QBR, in his second full year as a starter.

And Cousins has done it all on an historically (and currently) dysfunctional team, and for a front office that has made it clear that they have little faith in him.



Yes, Cousins has his flaws (poise under pressure, arm strength), and I have more faith in the current iterations of Brady, Brees, Rodgers, and, as a Seahawks fan, even Wilson. Yet despite those flaws, Cousins' 4th and 5th seasons, as a passer, were as good as or better than these same 4 QBs at the same stage of development. Brees improved his arm strength after his first half decade in the league and Cousins can likely do the same, especially with his work ethic. Poise does come with experience and knowledge, it's not surprising that some poor decision making is a criticism of an NFL player inside his first 50 starts. Even Brady still gets flustered in a dirty or confusing pocket. Cousins provides excellent gross production and efficiency, by every measure, and that far outweighs his few negatives, negatives that are expected to improve over several more seasons.



He should be easily recognized as a top 8 QB right now, and one with significant upside given how few starts he has had in the league.



At his age, and with his upside, I thought it would be unlikely that Cousins would sign any contract before testing the waters of free agency, but the Redskins would have been wise to give Cousins a contract worthy of his talent level, and in this NFL it would have meant offering Cousins the richest contract in NFL history. That is what he will earn as a free agent

a non fan with some stats on KC

 

[skinsdad62]

It is not about the money with KC
This is about KC’s values and the Law of Diminishing Returns.

KC did a great job of explaining his values in his own words. If his words about himself don’t convince people my words won’t either. Moving on…

Many people don’t understand the Law of Diminishing Returns but wise people always abide by it. It is basic economics. Supply and demand. As the thing you lack becomes more abundant your desire for it wanes. What you will sacrifice to get more of it shinks down as your suppy of it grows beyond your need. The other things you value become more important. Does the rich old man crave more money, or more time? Does the poor young man have different motivations?

When KC got drafted his financial situation took a massive turn for the better. The rookie salary for a 4th round pick is doctor/lawyer/shady politician kind of money. KC wasn’t set for life but it was life changing. Over the years he used that salary to build a life and put down roots.

Then he gets a massive windfall of nearly $20m. This is life changing, lottery winner, never have to work again, trust fund for the coming generations money. Money is no longer a problem, come what may.

Now he get even more again this year. Tell me, is this $24m going to double his financial security? Is it going to double his personal happiness? What deep unfulfilled need will this money satisfy that last year’s money couldn’t cover? Allen is trying to sell ice cubes to an eskimo here. Money just doesn’t have much impact on KC’s decision making any more. I get that. If I were in KC’s cleets I would feel the same way.

So what does motivate him now? He says he wants to stay long term where it is a good fit. But what does that mean? Perhaps the "home town advantage" plays a role here. Does KC want to stay here where he has built his life and started his family and made life long friends? Does he want that more than an extra $4m/yr?

How about professional accolades? He has the fortune. Is fame now on the top of his list? Hall of Fame? Superbowl rings? MVP? Will he go to a losing franchise for an extra $4m/yr?

KC is living the dream. He wants to be here first but only if he sees the chance for success in the coming years. How the year unfolds realy does matter to him. It is not about BA. How much does your boss’, boss’ boss mean to you in your job? It is about Gruden, Cavanaugh and Callahan (his life insurance agent).

If the four of them build something really special this year and the D becomes average he will take take a fair deal to stay here. And he will want to lock in long term. It won’t set new NFL records but it will be more than BA would have liked to pay. It will be cap friendly enough to sign the Pryors, Longs, Browns and Galettes that can help him make this team a contender.

and this is where denver comes in with elway if the skins dont wise up

 

[Sportster 72]

Those are good posts dad. I think we have said things similar although probably not quite as detailed about Cousin's. Still you know all the responses you will get from the ABC crowd. They are just numbers, he doesn't make the team (by himself win enough) etc. etc. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Still good info on how effective Cousin's has been over the past two years. He has been top 5 but as I said the ABCers do not agree with that.

 

[j_y19]

Seahawks fan here. Local sports radio had an absolute blast counting the number of times your GM called Kirk by the wrong name. Gave us at least an hour of good laughs. As bad as that gaffe was, not offering Cousins the highest value QB contract in the NFL was far worse. My reasoning follows.

Cousins didn’t get the chance to be a starter until Washington gave up on salvaging RGIII. The only real data we have on him is his 4th and 5th seasons in the league. Comparing him to other QBs 4th and 5th seasons might be slightly biased in favor of Cousins given that he has incidentally had an excellent 2 seasons (acknowledging possible confirmation bias), but most of his peers got to start well before their 4th season, and Kirk's relative lack of in-game experience serves as a disadvantage for Cousins in this review of NFL statistics.



Anyway, pro-football-reference.com has this incredible search tool, and I created this sortable list of cumulative stats from a QB's 4th and 5th seasons in the league. Search criteria are: NFL seasons from 2002 - 2016, players drafted (or otherwise entering league) between 1999-2012, over 500 pass attempts over the 2 combines seasons, at least 20 starts over the combined 2 seasons. That’s kind of a level playing field with which to compare Cousins with other NFL QBs at the same stage of development.



There are 38 players that fit the criteria, and in addition to Cousins, they include the likes of Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Phillip Rivers, Russell Wilson, Andy Dalton, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Matt Stafford, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Daunte Culpepper, Joe Flacco, and David Carr (Peyton Manning was drafted before the sample period). That's a pretty solid list of franchise QBs.



Looking at the search form, we find that Cousins was asked to throw the ball a tremendous number of times, and his yardage production was second only to Matt Stafford.

• 3rd in total attempts over the two seasons (only surpassed by Stafford and Ryan)
• 2nd in total passing yards (behind only Stafford)
• 2nd in passing yards/game (behind only Stafford)

Despite the heavy workload asked of Cousins, he still managed to be incredibly efficient, basically ending up tied for 1st in efficiency with Russell Wilson's 4th and 5th seasons.

• 1st in completion %age
• 12th in TD %age
• 4th in INT %age (2.0%, Wilson leads the way at 1.85%)
• 2nd in sack frequency (partially a product of OL, but mostly related to QB play)
  
• 2nd in passer rating (behind only Wilson)
• 2nd in Y/A (behind only Wilson)
• 1st in ANY/A

That is elite production for his stage of career. That is elite efficiency, again for his stage of career.



Ignoring stage of career tells a similar story:

In 2015, Cousins was 7th in DYAR and 6th in DVOA and 6th in QBR, in his first full year as a starter, only beat out by players .
In 2016, Cousins was 3rd in DYAR and 5th in DVOA and 5th in QBR, in his second full year as a starter.

And Cousins has done it all on an historically (and currently) dysfunctional team, and for a front office that has made it clear that they have little faith in him.



Yes, Cousins has his flaws (poise under pressure, arm strength), and I have more faith in the current iterations of Brady, Brees, Rodgers, and, as a Seahawks fan, even Wilson. Yet despite those flaws, Cousins' 4th and 5th seasons, as a passer, were as good as or better than these same 4 QBs at the same stage of development. Brees improved his arm strength after his first half decade in the league and Cousins can likely do the same, especially with his work ethic. Poise does come with experience and knowledge, it's not surprising that some poor decision making is a criticism of an NFL player inside his first 50 starts. Even Brady still gets flustered in a dirty or confusing pocket. Cousins provides excellent gross production and efficiency, by every measure, and that far outweighs his few negatives, negatives that are expected to improve over several more seasons.



He should be easily recognized as a top 8 QB right now, and one with significant upside given how few starts he has had in the league.



At his age, and with his upside, I thought it would be unlikely that Cousins would sign any contract before testing the waters of free agency, but the Redskins would have been wise to give Cousins a contract worthy of his talent level, and in this NFL it would have meant offering Cousins the richest contract in NFL history. That is what he will earn as a free agent

a non fan with some stats on KC

This is a really interesting and objective look at KC from an outsider' position. I would be real curious how some of the KC "doubters" respond to this. @VTSparks? @Mitziman? @deanpet21? @coach_spurrier_1? Guys, how do you react to this post? You guys have been vocal about being concerned about KC, but as this poster has documented, given his level of live experience, he is out performing some of the game's greats at this stage in his career. Id really like to get your thought on this and if you were actually aware of his production?

 

[deanpet21]

This is a really interesting and objective look at KC from an outsider' position. I would be real curious how some of the KC "doubters" respond to this. @VTSparks? @Mitziman? @deanpet21? @coach_spurrier_1? Guys, how do you react to this post? You guys have been vocal about being concerned about KC, but as this poster has documented, given his level of live experience, he is out performing some of the game's greats at this stage in his career. Id really like to get your thought on this and if you were actually aware of his production?

What you fail to realize is that the guys KC was being compared to in that article mostly winning QB's. You are too much of a stat person like gk. When you actually watch the games and see KC decision making, game management, and clock management KC's game is still flawed. Which doesn't translate to being the highest paid QB in the league right now. Of course it can get better. NO doubt. I hope he kills it this year. Maybe we could get a LTD next year. Are you telling me that KC is a top 5 QB in the league from the last two seasons?

 

[j_y19]

What you fail to realize is that the guys KC was being compared to in that article mostly winning QB's. You are too much of a stat person like gk. When you actually watch the games and see KC decision making, game management, and clock management KC's game is still flawed. Which doesn't translate to being the highest paid QB in the league right now. Of course it can get better. NO doubt. I hope he kills it this year. Maybe we could get a LTD next year. Are you telling me that KC is a top 5 QB in the league from the last two seasons?

Yes, that is exactly what this analysis is telling you. You are wrong. His game management and decision making is one of the best and proved by these facts. That doesn't mean that he is mistake free. But what this analysis tells you is that all QBs have lapses under pressure with game management and decision making. They all make mistakes and KC is no exception. But at this stage is his career (year 5), he is actually ahead of most. You just can't understand that no QB can overcome a historically weak defense. You are so jaded by a couple of bad games that you can't actually understand that all 5 year QBs have bad games and most have more than KC has had.

I realize you will not read this entire post before you respond, but I would strongly suggest you digest it and look at his contemporaries at their 4 and 5 year marks before you do.

 

[Sleepy T]

It is not about the money with KC

So what does motivate him now? He says he wants to stay long term where it is a good fit. But what does that mean? Perhaps the "home town advantage" plays a role here. Does KC want to stay here where he has built his life and started his family and made life long friends? Does he want that more than an extra $4m/yr?

Soooo. Based on everything KC has said, Would a big money contract really have mattered? Would he have signed it, or is he (like the FO) still taking a wait and see approach? Maybe it would have made him think about it a little bit more , but I'm not still convinced he would have signed anything less than a huge deal.

If the four of them build something really special this year and the D becomes average he will take take a fair deal to stay here. And he will want to lock in long term. It won’t set new NFL records but it will be more than BA would have liked to pay. It will be cap friendly enough to sign the Pryors, Longs, Browns and Galettes that can help him make this team a contender.

That's a bold statement by a Seahawks fan who probably doesn't follow this team very closely. Not saying he/she is wrong, but I don't agree with it ... I think money is more of a factor than KC is claiming, but probably not everything... He will be in a position to have his cake and eat it too next offseason. He will either get paid ridiculous money on the tag/LTD and/or have his choice of who he wants to play for...probably both. We will see soon enough.

 

[j_y19]

Soooo. Based on everything KC has said, Would a big money contract really have mattered? Would he have signed it, or is he (like the FO) still taking a wait and see approach? Maybe it would have made him think about it a little bit more , but I'm not still convinced he would have signed anything less than a huge deal.



That's a bold statement by a Seahawks fan who probably doesn't follow this team very closely. Not saying he/she is wrong, but I don't agree with it ... I think money is more of a factor than KC is claiming, but probably not everything... He will be in a position to have his cake and eat it too next offseason. He will either get paid ridiculous money on the tag/LTD and/or have his choice of who he wants to play for...probably both. We will see soon enough.

Of course money is a factor and he is going to get paid. But as this poster opined, its not far fetched to believe that money is not the only factor at this point. A player in KC's position will have more money that he can ever spend (theoretically). Its not out of the realm for many professional athletes look for more once the money is taken care of. And most look for legacy. That is typically measured by wins, and more specifically, SB wins. So I believe that it is realistic to see that KC is evaluating the franchise to determine if they the guidance and management to build a long term winning franchise. Quite frankly, what we have seen so far, its questionable, at best, that they do.

 

[gkekoa]

What you fail to realize is that the guys KC was being compared to in that article mostly winning QB's. You are too much of a stat person like gk. When you actually watch the games and see KC decision making, game management, and clock management KC's game is still flawed. Which doesn't translate to being the highest paid QB in the league right now. Of course it can get better. NO doubt. I hope he kills it this year. Maybe we could get a LTD next year. Are you telling me that KC is a top 5 QB in the league from the last two seasons?

Give me five QBs who have been better the last two seasons. If you can, then give me ten. I need to see where you have KC.

 

[j_y19]

Give me five QBs who have been better the last two seasons. If you can, then give me ten. I need to see where you have KC.

More specifically, give 5 QBs that were better in years 4 and 5 of their careers. That is what the analysis is all about. Its comparing KC at his current point in his career to his contemporaries at the same point.

 

[gkekoa]

More specifically, give 5 QBs that were better in years 4 and 5 of their careers. That is what the analysis is all about. Its comparing KC at his current point in his career to his contemporaries at the same point.

Actually, I want his list over the last two seasons. I am curious.

 

[deanpet21]

Yes, that is exactly what this analysis is telling you. You are wrong. His game management and decision making is one of the best and proved by these facts. That doesn't mean that he is mistake free. But what this analysis tells you is that all QBs have lapses under pressure with game management and decision making. They all make mistakes and KC is no exception. But at this stage is his career (year 5), he is actually ahead of most. You just can't understand that no QB can overcome a historically weak defense. You are so jaded by a couple of bad games that you can't actually understand that all 5 year QBs have bad games and most have more than KC has had.

I realize you will not read this entire post before you respond, but I would strongly suggest you digest it and look at his contemporaries at their 4 and 5 year marks before you do.

One of the best is laughable. He doesn't have control of the timeouts Gruden does. Go watch the games again. You cant judge a QB by stats you judge a QB by winning. Yes he had a bad defense but when the season was on the line with the Carolina and NYG games he wasn't nearly the QB you portray him to be. You are going to say im nit picking but you have to when you are taking these contract numbers. I believe if he had won these games the LTD negoations would have gone much differently this off season.

 

[deanpet21]

Give me five QBs who have been better the last two seasons. If you can, then give me ten. I need to see where you have KC.

KC is like a top 10 to 15 Qb in this league. We have to pay a premium number for this talent. I like him as a Qb but he doesn't warrant the contract he is going to get right now. Of course this can change in the future

 

[j_y19]

One of the best is laughable. He doesn't have control of the timeouts Gruden does. Go watch the games again. You cant judge a QB by stats you judge a QB by winning. Yes he had a bad defense but when the season was on the line with the Carolina and NYG games he wasn't nearly the QB you portray him to be. You are going to say im nit picking but you have to when you are taking these contract numbers. I believe if he had won these games the LTD negoations would have gone much differently this off season.

Game management is more than time out management. It's taking what the defense gives you. Its reading the situation and knowing where to go with the ball. Its getting the ball out to avoid sacks. Its managing the entire offense successfully given the game situation. So give me 5 contemporaries of his not named Brady or Rogers who were better than him in years 4 and 5 of their careers doing this. I can think of one but I'll let you figure it out.

See you still don'y understand what the original poster's analysis was offering. Your immediate bias popped up and mis read the post. Typical.

 

[skinsdad62]

One of the best is laughable. He doesn't have control of the timeouts Gruden does. Go watch the games again. You cant judge a QB by stats you judge a QB by winning. Yes he had a bad defense but when the season was on the line with the Carolina and NYG games he wasn't nearly the QB you portray him to be. You are going to say im nit picking but you have to when you are taking these contract numbers. I believe if he had won these games the LTD negoations would have gone much differently this off season.

so sonny jurgensen , a HOF qb stinks because he didnt win ? dree brees sucked the last 5 years because he is 39-40 with 4 7-9 seasons ? what about phillip rivers ? does he suck too ? matt ryan had a string of losing seasons as well , matt stafford has had quite a few as well

most people who rattle off elite qbs in the game today get to brees at about 5 and his numbers more then justify it

all qbs miss reads , all qbs throw bad ints , all qbs mismanage time but yet KC must be perfect

the stats shown above show he is doing his job at qb at , yes , an elite level . yes he is a seahawks fan ,yes he doesnt "know " the skins like we do , however he doesnt carry the biases you or i have

when the season was on the line the year prior the team won and you and others dismiss that . any team can beat any team on any given sunday . you choose to diminish that fact because it doesnt serve your narrative

 

[deanpet21]

Game management is more than time out management. It's taking what the defense gives you. Its reading the situation and knowing where to go with the ball. Its getting the ball out to avoid sacks. Its managing the entire offense successfully given the game situation. So give me 5 contemporaries of his not named Brady or Rogers who were better than him in years 4 and 5 of their careers doing this. I can think of one but I'll let you figure it out.

See you still don'y understand what the original poster's analysis was offering. Your immediate bias popped up and mis read the post. Typical.

HIs own coach said in a press conference that KC needs to read defenses better. That statement right there from Gruden doesn't equate to being the highest paid QB in the NFL. Remember the kneel down play after a TO. Even the last INT against the Giants, late across the middle in the drive of his life.

 

[deanpet21]

so sonny jurgensen , a HOF qb stinks because he didnt win ? dree brees sucked the last 5 years because he is 39-40 with 4 7-9 seasons ? what about phillip rivers ? does he suck too ? matt ryan had a string of losing seasons as well , matt stafford has had quite a few as well

most people who rattle off elite qbs in the game today get to brees at about 5 and his numbers more then justify it

all qbs miss reads , all qbs throw bad ints , all qbs mismanage time but yet KC must be perfect

the stats shown above show he is doing his job at qb at , yes , an elite level . yes he is a seahawks fan ,yes he doesnt "know " the skins like we do , however he doesnt carry the biases you or i have

when the season was on the line the year prior the team won and you and others dismiss that . any team can beat any team on any given sunday . you choose to diminish that fact because it doesnt serve your narrative

I didn't say perfect. I just don't know how you have him as an elite QB from these last two seasons.

 

[gkekoa]

KC is like a top 10 to 15 Qb in this league. We have to pay a premium number for this talent. I like him as a Qb but he doesn't warrant the contract he is going to get right now. Of course this can change in the future

Name the QBs in order until you get to KC. Seriously. I am curious.