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Not to take anything away from Drexel, but we have over a week to theorize the matchup with Duke, until we play them. I'll put a Drexel game board up next week.
Personally, I think we match up well with Duke. I think that Cook and TJ match up well together, on both sides of the ball. Both are really good passers. The scoring threat from Cook is neutralized by the defense of TJ. Should be a great matchup there.
PG: TJ=Cook
Sulaimon and NJ are both great players, but NJ is such a strong on-ball defender, that I just can't see Sula doing well against him. Nor do I see Sula able to hang with NJ as a defender.
SG: NJ>Sula
Hood is going to have to go up against AG and RHJ. I think that Hood will stand a slightly better chance of scoring on AG, than he will on RHJ. Hollis-Jefferson is already a lock-down defender... as a freshman. His ability to score, I think, will hinge upon his ability to draw fouls by driving the lane (which is possible). Other than that, it's going to be difficult to score for him. Defensively, Hood will have his hands full with the more athletic, AG and RHJ. AG will be all over the place grabbing boards and put-backs and commanding respect from 3. Unless both freshmen get into horrible foul trouble early, I see AZ with the edge.
SF: AG>Hood
Parker will get his points, but it will be his most difficult test. AZ has so much size that he's either going to have to work outside -more like a SF- or deal with the trees. AG will play some PF, and the starters (BA and Zeus are 6'8" 230 and 7'0" 235, respectively. BA is developing into a very solid PF, especially on the offensive side. I have to give a slight edge to Duke. Parker is a talent, but he will feel more lonely down low that most games this season.
PF: Parker>BA
Zeus is coming into his own. He's only a sophomore, and still making mistakes, but he is growing every game. Jefferson sacrifices 3 inches and 25 pounds to Zeus, and that will probably be the difference, especially defensively, for Zeus.
C: Zeus>Jefferson
We don't really need to belabor the coaching matchup, right?
Coaching: K>Miller
It looks like Coach K really doesn't use his bench much, unless it's a blowout. AZ's rotation is very solid 1-7. RHJ and York could start on at least half the teams in the top 25. I don't feel like a homer saying that. Both are coming off the bench averaging double digits, both play great defense, and both are very smart, athletic, and driven. York is the backup SG, and RHJ is AG's backup at SF, especially when AG slides over to play the 4. The only really weaknesses that AZ has in their bench is the lack of a backup for TJ and Zeus. Other than that, they are very solid in their rotation. It looks like Thorton's good for a 3 ball per game, and that Dawkins can score, but it doesn't look like K trusts Dawkins, because he only gets PT during blowouts.
Bench: AZ>Duke
Experience will be a factor, especially for AZ, who has not played a top-5 team yet. I think that it might take a while for AZ to settle down. I see AZ get rattled and try to force things, and it looks like they get overwhelmed during stretches (especially the freshmen). Shouldn't be too much of a factor, but it will play into it, early.
Overall, I have AZ with a slight edge. That being said, I think it will be a great game. I do think AZ should win, but if AZ starts getting into foul trouble, Duke could extend a lead pretty quickly. That's my biggest worry. Truth is, AZ just has such an impressive defense, that unless the have to back away because of foul trouble, I can't see Duke being too successful. Duke is very top-heavy in their scoring. I just don't see where the scoring will come from, besides Parker. If hood gets hot from 3, that could certainly be a problem; AZ has shown to be slow to guard the perimeter at times. If Duke can get it going from outside, it could be dagger after dagger, all the way to victory.
Bottom-line is that I don't like calling victories, because it seems so certain. This is college basketball. I think it's better to call best of 10-game winners. I think AZ wins 6 of 10. AZ will probably start slow, just because of the venue and nerves. But unless the 3s start raining, they should be able to play their game. It would come down to this being one of the 4 that Duke wins though. Like I said, I'm worried about AZ fouling, and Duke's perimeter shooting. But if AZ can avoid those pitfalls, I see AZ taking it: too much rebounding, and stifling defense. AZ has held their opponents to anywhere from 27%-37% from the field. They just limit the opponent's ability to score, and take away possessions on the glass. It will be great to see how Cook is able to facilitate the offense against AZ.
Prediction: AZ 73 - Duke 70
Personally, I think we match up well with Duke. I think that Cook and TJ match up well together, on both sides of the ball. Both are really good passers. The scoring threat from Cook is neutralized by the defense of TJ. Should be a great matchup there.
PG: TJ=Cook
Sulaimon and NJ are both great players, but NJ is such a strong on-ball defender, that I just can't see Sula doing well against him. Nor do I see Sula able to hang with NJ as a defender.
SG: NJ>Sula
Hood is going to have to go up against AG and RHJ. I think that Hood will stand a slightly better chance of scoring on AG, than he will on RHJ. Hollis-Jefferson is already a lock-down defender... as a freshman. His ability to score, I think, will hinge upon his ability to draw fouls by driving the lane (which is possible). Other than that, it's going to be difficult to score for him. Defensively, Hood will have his hands full with the more athletic, AG and RHJ. AG will be all over the place grabbing boards and put-backs and commanding respect from 3. Unless both freshmen get into horrible foul trouble early, I see AZ with the edge.
SF: AG>Hood
Parker will get his points, but it will be his most difficult test. AZ has so much size that he's either going to have to work outside -more like a SF- or deal with the trees. AG will play some PF, and the starters (BA and Zeus are 6'8" 230 and 7'0" 235, respectively. BA is developing into a very solid PF, especially on the offensive side. I have to give a slight edge to Duke. Parker is a talent, but he will feel more lonely down low that most games this season.
PF: Parker>BA
Zeus is coming into his own. He's only a sophomore, and still making mistakes, but he is growing every game. Jefferson sacrifices 3 inches and 25 pounds to Zeus, and that will probably be the difference, especially defensively, for Zeus.
C: Zeus>Jefferson
We don't really need to belabor the coaching matchup, right?
Coaching: K>Miller
It looks like Coach K really doesn't use his bench much, unless it's a blowout. AZ's rotation is very solid 1-7. RHJ and York could start on at least half the teams in the top 25. I don't feel like a homer saying that. Both are coming off the bench averaging double digits, both play great defense, and both are very smart, athletic, and driven. York is the backup SG, and RHJ is AG's backup at SF, especially when AG slides over to play the 4. The only really weaknesses that AZ has in their bench is the lack of a backup for TJ and Zeus. Other than that, they are very solid in their rotation. It looks like Thorton's good for a 3 ball per game, and that Dawkins can score, but it doesn't look like K trusts Dawkins, because he only gets PT during blowouts.
Bench: AZ>Duke
Experience will be a factor, especially for AZ, who has not played a top-5 team yet. I think that it might take a while for AZ to settle down. I see AZ get rattled and try to force things, and it looks like they get overwhelmed during stretches (especially the freshmen). Shouldn't be too much of a factor, but it will play into it, early.
Overall, I have AZ with a slight edge. That being said, I think it will be a great game. I do think AZ should win, but if AZ starts getting into foul trouble, Duke could extend a lead pretty quickly. That's my biggest worry. Truth is, AZ just has such an impressive defense, that unless the have to back away because of foul trouble, I can't see Duke being too successful. Duke is very top-heavy in their scoring. I just don't see where the scoring will come from, besides Parker. If hood gets hot from 3, that could certainly be a problem; AZ has shown to be slow to guard the perimeter at times. If Duke can get it going from outside, it could be dagger after dagger, all the way to victory.
Bottom-line is that I don't like calling victories, because it seems so certain. This is college basketball. I think it's better to call best of 10-game winners. I think AZ wins 6 of 10. AZ will probably start slow, just because of the venue and nerves. But unless the 3s start raining, they should be able to play their game. It would come down to this being one of the 4 that Duke wins though. Like I said, I'm worried about AZ fouling, and Duke's perimeter shooting. But if AZ can avoid those pitfalls, I see AZ taking it: too much rebounding, and stifling defense. AZ has held their opponents to anywhere from 27%-37% from the field. They just limit the opponent's ability to score, and take away possessions on the glass. It will be great to see how Cook is able to facilitate the offense against AZ.
Prediction: AZ 73 - Duke 70
