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averagejoe
You fell victim to one of the classic blunders.
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Don't trust rookies.
But I may be coming around to Saquon Barkley.
According to FantasyPros, Barkley's ECR is 8 and his ADP is 6.
While I don't trust rookies, I do trust trends.
Did some digging and found that in the last decade, 29 rookie RB have had at least 1000 yards from scrimmage in their first year. That's not a bad number considering only 20 RB were drafted in the first round in the last decade.
Of course, Ezekiel Elliott in 2016 leads the way. He was picked 4th overall and rumbled behind a great O-line to the tune of 1994 total scrimmage yards.
I have felt that his example tilted the scales towards rookies since this seems to be an expectation of every fantasy owner that their rookie mancrush becomes the next EE.
There are other rookies who did well too. Doug Martin in 2012 (1926 yds), Chris Johnson in 2008 (1488 yds) round out the top 3 rookie RB in the last 10 years.
But there are some duds. Darren McFadden was taken 4th overall in 2008 and only mustered 784 scrimmage yards. C.J. Spiller was taken 9th overall in 2010 and barely made 440 scrimmage yards.
Look, I think the Giants have a terrible O-line. So Barkley would have to make his own yards. It may not be fair to compare, but the Giants are on their third rookie RB in consecutive seasons. Previously there was 4th round pick Wayne Gallman (2017), and 5th rounder Paul Perkins (2016). Skipping back a couple more seasons, there was also 4th-rounder Andre Williams (2014) and 1st round flop David Wilson (2012).
Sorry but the G-men don't have a good resume on picking RB this side of Tiki Barber.
That said, I was not that enthused about Ezekiel Elliott's situation in Dallas in his rookie season. If you recall, The 'Boys were going to start a rookie QB (Dak Prescott) along with a rookie RB. It didn't seem like a desirable situation regardless of the hype or the O-line. Still, Elliott made history.
I still feel that Barkley will have to pull a rabbit out of his hat to finish 6th overall in fantasy scoring as his ADP suggests. But based on how first round rookies have done over the last decade, I am willing to consider him in the top 15.
I'll probably still miss out on him which I'm okay with. Anyone care to talk me into bumping him up a few spots? Or down?
But I may be coming around to Saquon Barkley.
According to FantasyPros, Barkley's ECR is 8 and his ADP is 6.
While I don't trust rookies, I do trust trends.
Did some digging and found that in the last decade, 29 rookie RB have had at least 1000 yards from scrimmage in their first year. That's not a bad number considering only 20 RB were drafted in the first round in the last decade.
Of course, Ezekiel Elliott in 2016 leads the way. He was picked 4th overall and rumbled behind a great O-line to the tune of 1994 total scrimmage yards.
I have felt that his example tilted the scales towards rookies since this seems to be an expectation of every fantasy owner that their rookie mancrush becomes the next EE.
There are other rookies who did well too. Doug Martin in 2012 (1926 yds), Chris Johnson in 2008 (1488 yds) round out the top 3 rookie RB in the last 10 years.
But there are some duds. Darren McFadden was taken 4th overall in 2008 and only mustered 784 scrimmage yards. C.J. Spiller was taken 9th overall in 2010 and barely made 440 scrimmage yards.
Look, I think the Giants have a terrible O-line. So Barkley would have to make his own yards. It may not be fair to compare, but the Giants are on their third rookie RB in consecutive seasons. Previously there was 4th round pick Wayne Gallman (2017), and 5th rounder Paul Perkins (2016). Skipping back a couple more seasons, there was also 4th-rounder Andre Williams (2014) and 1st round flop David Wilson (2012).
Sorry but the G-men don't have a good resume on picking RB this side of Tiki Barber.
That said, I was not that enthused about Ezekiel Elliott's situation in Dallas in his rookie season. If you recall, The 'Boys were going to start a rookie QB (Dak Prescott) along with a rookie RB. It didn't seem like a desirable situation regardless of the hype or the O-line. Still, Elliott made history.
I still feel that Barkley will have to pull a rabbit out of his hat to finish 6th overall in fantasy scoring as his ADP suggests. But based on how first round rookies have done over the last decade, I am willing to consider him in the top 15.
I'll probably still miss out on him which I'm okay with. Anyone care to talk me into bumping him up a few spots? Or down?
