Reds-Cubs thread

[chico ruiz]

there's more to it than just l-r-l-r-l-r order. you have to look at what the reds have available on the roster and their individual proven abilities. you don't have to be gene mauch to see what dusty is doing with frazier. 'trying to do,' is probably more accurate. todd must see the ball fairly well because he has a .330 obp. and he's going to bust it on every batted ball. i don't know how it's going to work out. but, if it means he's going to see less off speed stuff, i'm for it. putting bruce in the #4 spot? i don't know where to start with this misguided idea. he's another guy that gives maximum effort. busts it down the line, and i appreciate that more than most fans i know. but, jay k's a lot. a whole lot. 2nd in the national league. on pace to whiff close to 200 times. so, you stuff all your left-handed hitters into the top of the order? are you suggesting that be the batting order for a majority of the 162 games? more flexibility from baker might be a discussion to have, but otherwise that would be a horribly unbalanced line-up. that's the line-up card you hand to the umpire when facing kershaw, corbin, locke, gonzalez, lee, ryu, miley, or bumgarner? and those names are just off the top of my head. i've read a lot of posts on this board bemoaning how badly the reds do v. lefties. put bruce in the 4 hole, and it only gets worse. more, i haven't even mentioned how jay can disappear, for a couple weeks at a time, offensively. phillips is in the 4 hole out of necessity because, even when slumping, he hits the ball. yeah, yeah, yeah he has a tendency to roll over on the ball when he's going bad. but, i'd rather have actual contact, than a k, every time. anything can happen when the ball is put into play. and what about jay's hitting chart and the shifts that are put on him. every team, with the exception of a few, has very good bullpens now. pittsburgh has turned starters into relievers. seems like every team has 2 guys out of the pen who can throw 95+ mph. kansas city has 3 who approach 100mph. and most of the contending teams have 2 or 3 very effective lefties. that proposed line-up would be an opposing manager's dream come true.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I hear you.

Jay Bruce is hitting .272 against lefties, .270 against righties, though.
He's walked 38 times, has 24HR has 5 SF, hit into 7 DPs. His K:BB is about 4:1.

Phillips is hitting . 265 vs LHP, .269 v. RHP. He's walked 38 times, has 15 HR, 8 SF but hit into 14 DP's so far. His K:BB ratio is about 2:1

Not many hitters can do what BP does in so many lineup spots. I don't mean to slam him at all, he's just a better tablesetter I believe.

Check out cleanup hitters on most teams- their stats probably look more like Bruce's than BP's. they strike out more because the hit twice the HRs., and because a power hitters swing is normally more up, making contact less likely.

Too many hitters have to hit "out of position" here. Some of that is lack of players with those classic tools for roles. Some is limited by the narrow offensive philosophy of Dusty. We can argue forever about the chicken/egg thing, but DB clearly doesn't try to score effectively, without the long ball.

As I said earlier, it's the production at 3b, LF and the general lack of getting runners in scoring isotope with fewer than 2 outs that is the offensive culprit here.

 

[chico ruiz]

look at where hitters with 100 or more k's, in the NL, are most frequently slotted by their respective managers. it's not 4. they can't all be as intransigent as dusty, right? and, in terms of the batting votto second in the batting order idea. holy mother-lovin jumping leaping spinning twirling somersaulting pirouetting poopballs.

 

[JohnU]

I don't see that the Reds do worse against lefties. I'd think their offense against righthanders is probably worse, but at 14 or so over .500, they're worming their way to a lot of wins.

I suspect my overall frustration is that they don't get enough big innings early in the game. Even at that, the starters are going deeper into the games than almost anybody in the league. Go figure. The idea with scoring early is that a lot of starters are vulnerable in the first 30 pitches. Catch a guy who's on his stuff early and it's rare. Give him an inning to get the feel of the mound and the zone, and you settle in for a long day.

The secret to getting to a starter early is the No. 2 guy in the order, between Choo and Votto. I believe Dusty is more frustrated about that than anybody and Phillips probably has said he doesn't want to hit there. Frazier probably volunteered! With him, I think it's 'tell me when it's soup and I'm hungry.'

I think the logic in me isn't satisfied with 'it doesn't matter how, so long as you get it done.' That effectively means we depend on luck to some extent. I don't think that's true but it suggests Dusty has some sort of 'prophet' that says, 'we can piss around here for 6-7 innings and we will find a way.'

That's just an old Pablo Cruz pop song.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I don't think a veteran guy that averages 14 HR a season is a preferred 4 hitter.

I think it's easier to sell a guy that is going to hit 25-30 HR as one though.

Again, I don't want to criticize BP, but with Votto in front, and Bruce behind, I could be disappointed with 15HR and .265 BA from him. More importantly, I think that if you believe in lineup protection, that must mean the guys floundering in the 2 hole here really suck.

Most of the Reds strikeout too much. BP and Bruce also walk an embarrassingly low number of times, and obviously it's not because pitchers fear hitters behind them much. They're swingaholics. IMO, none on 2 outs and no runs is a frequent situation that may motivate them to swing like axe murderers.