Reds and Bailey nearing 6 yr 100 mil extension

[wvu_man]

Homer Bailey and the Reds have agreed to terms on a six-year, $105MM extension with a $25MM mutual option that contains a $5MM buyout, reports MLB.com's Mark Sheldon.
Bailey, a client of Excel Sports Management, successfully avoids arbitration by agreeing to the massive extension and also forgoes his first venture into free agency, which would have come at the end of the 2014 season. He had filed for an $11.6MM salary while the Reds countered with an offer of $8.7MM. The two have been said to be working on a long-term deal for quite some time, with the first reports that an extension was close coming from the Cleveland Plain Dealer's Paul Hoynes on Sunday night.

 

[Redsfan1507]

What if...Latos and Cueto come back healthy, Bailey keeps getting better...all 3 of those guys could compete for a Cy Young...and that isn't even considering what Chapman might do as a starter. Leake and Cingrani aren't bad either. Could be the best starting rotation in MLB.

 

[BigDDude]

it really isn't a trend. Bruce signed in the winter. I think Cueto did.
It's probably just when Walt decides to clear his desk and get to it.
They make these discussions fairly far in advance. The agents have more than one player, usually.

What say you about this John, as I respect your opinion. Is Homer Bailey anything more that a ever so slightly above league average pitcher?

Just curious, as that is how I see him. And, for him, or anyone in that same boat, this is a VERY nice payday indeed. He still has time to improve, and this will be his magic age 27 season, so....?

 

[Redsfan1507]

He's only a few games above .500, but the first 2 years he wasn't close to being ready for MLB. I think he's much better than average pitcher... Not just the 2 no hitters, but he has top 15 SP stuff, IMO. His K:BB ratio was very good last year. He just needs 2-4 more W's a season for people to take notice.

 

[wvu_man]

That's exactly right 1507. From reading all the comments about his contract, wins and losses is the only stat that everyone is concerned about. They don't take into consideration how many of those L's were quality starts that he only had 1 or 2 runs from Dusty's "mighty home run or bust" offensive approach. Obviously, a lot of them do not follow Reds baseball and know how much Homer has matured in the past 2 years. He is no longer the stubborn kid who got rattled when a couple of things went wrong. I read an article a couple of years ago about a new strength and conditioning program that he started and put on like 15 or 20 lbs of muscle. I don't think it's no coencidence that his ERA has dropped quit a bit since then. He's able to go deeper into games with getting fatigued and his fastball actually gets faster in the later innings.

 

[BigDDude]

That's exactly right 1507. From reading all the comments about his contract, wins and losses is the only stat that everyone is concerned about. They don't take into consideration how many of those L's were quality starts that he only had 1 or 2 runs from Dusty's "mighty home run or bust" offensive approach. Obviously, a lot of them do not follow Reds baseball and know how much Homer has matured in the past 2 years. He is no longer the stubborn kid who got rattled when a couple of things went wrong. I read an article a couple of years ago about a new strength and conditioning program that he started and put on like 15 or 20 lbs of muscle. I don't think it's no coencidence that his ERA has dropped quit a bit since then. He's able to go deeper into games with getting fatigued and his fastball actually gets faster in the later innings.

Well, except for me. But, i'm nobody, so it is o.k.

 

[wvu_man]

Well, except for me. But, i'm nobody, so it is o.k.

lol...I'm sorry Dude. I should've been more specific. I've been commenting on the CBS articles about Homer today. That's where all the crazies were talking about his contract. I didn't mean you...sorry about the confusion

 

[JohnU]

I'd say Homer is a consistently league average guy. He will give you a decent-to-quality start as often as the middle 85 percent of NL pitchers. On any given day, he'll throw a 2-hitter ... or fail to make it out of the 4th inning. I suppose he's just not the power pitcher who can endure a bad couple of innings and end up with a 7-inning start.

But he is durable and has clearly matured. The fans love him and that will probably not change now,

Is that a $105M pitcher? Well, yeah ... and if he were Kershaw, he'd get twice that much.

But let's be honest ... there are only a half-dozen Kershaw-type guys in the NL, and a few were that type until they got old -- Halliday, Lee.

Homer Bailey compares to Justin Masterson, which makes measuring his contract easier ... and maybe to Jeff Samardzija ...

What remains to be seen is if he can approach the success that Lincecum had for a couple of years.

I like this signing for its stability with upper-middle-level talent. It's not a $21 million contract for a relief pitcher, if you are seeking a comparison.

 

[BigDDude]

lol...I'm sorry Dude. I should've been more specific. I've been commenting on the CBS articles about Homer today. That's where all the crazies were talking about his contract. I didn't mean you...sorry about the confusion

And forgive me and my pet peeve about lumping people together.

 

[BigDDude]

I'd say Homer is a consistently league average guy. He will give you a decent-to-quality start as often as the middle 85 percent of NL pitchers. On any given day, he'll throw a 2-hitter ... or fail to make it out of the 4th inning. I suppose he's just not the power pitcher who can endure a bad couple of innings and end up with a 7-inning start.

But he is durable and has clearly matured. The fans love him and that will probably not change now,

Is that a $105M pitcher? Well, yeah ... and if he were Kershaw, he'd get twice that much.

But let's be honest ... there are only a half-dozen Kershaw-type guys in the NL, and a few were that type until they got old -- Halliday, Lee.

Homer Bailey compares to Justin Masterson, which makes measuring his contract easier ... and maybe to Jeff Samardzija ...

What remains to be seen is if he can approach the success that Lincecum had for a couple of years.

I like this signing for its stability with upper-middle-level talent. It's not a $21 million contract for a relief pitcher, if you are seeking a comparison.

Thank you kind sir.


Your feeling pretty well mirrors mine, save for the fact that you likely have more personal info and insight into the guy than I do, with me relying mostly on just his raw numbers, and not him actually playing.

 

[JohnU]

I just watch the guy pitch every 5th day. We hear the announcers and sometimes what they don't say is as plain as day. Homer had a run-up with Reds announcer Marty Brenneman, who can be fairly brutal in his cranky years. I think Marty took personal offense that Homer ditched an interview. I can't recall the details.

There was thinking, as a result, that Homer didn't want to stay in Cincy. Clearly that wasn't the case and he's obviously made a connection with the dugout staff, Price in particular, and probably some of the players.

That connection established, I'd look for some pretty interesting things from David D. Bailey this year.

 

[WvuDieHard]

Homer's numbers historically is not representative of his contract. His huge contract was based on the last 81 games of the previous season and the measured improvement in his abilities. Then there is the "potential to improve" part of the contract but aren't all contracts geared toward speculation to some degree? I think this was an excellent move and it tells the team that Homer is your ace. Now that Price can change pitchers when he wants too instead of the Lounge Lizard known as Dusty "the Dustmop" Baker, I believe this pitching staff will be better than last years. I believe in Price because of what he has done with the staff since he came aboard. Let's hope that rubs off on the bats.

 

[JohnU]

Dunno if Homer is the ace, long-term.
For now, Latos isn't until that knee is right.
Cueto isn't until he can prove he can pitch 63 innings, or the same number as our closer pitched.

For now, you give the ball to a guy earning a 100 million buckaroo bonzais.

 

[Ryanballa]

I read something earlier that said we still have a shot at signing Latos,or Cueto. As of right now it would be Latos for me. Cueto can be a ace when healthy but he is havin a tough time staying healthy,too injury prone to give alot of money to.

 

[JohnU]

Cueto has no real history of injuries. A lat strain isn't exactly career-threatening. Depending on the nature of the injury, it could take 6 months to heal and in his case, probably should have. Why he tried to come back twice afterward is more about being a blockhead than an injury risk. Still, can't blame him for trying. If he had actually healed, the Reds were in gravy.

I'd guess they are trying to find out why the lat strain occurs. Still, nothing wrong with his pitching.

 

[JohnU]

All I wish Cueto would do is cut his hair.

 

[wvu_man]

As of right now, I gotta agree with Ryan. Until Cueto shows that his delivery is fixed (whether he keeps the twist or ditches it) and can stay healthy, I'd rather sign an extension with Latos. I guess this season will tell us a lot about the future starting rotation. If Cueto and Latos both pitch well, they're gonna have to make a decision on which guy they want to move forward with IF they have the funds to do so. Just looking at some of the expiring contracts of a few (Marshall, Ludwick, Broxton, and whatever they do with Phillips), we should have enough to keep one of them. Also, we'll see what kind of season Cingrani will have as a full time starter. Hopefully, Price has him working on his change up and a breaking ball?? I'll be keeping a close eye on Stephenson and Holmberg this season too. I'm sure their progression and development will determine the fates of Cueto and Latos.

 

[JohnU]

What strikes me as peculiar is the outreach for Manny Parra. With Marshall in the pen, Parra is redundant.

Except ... Parra is our 6th best starting pitcher. Better than Francis or Wang, for sure.

I'd keep an eye on that situation.

As for an either/or with Cueto or Latos, to this point, if I have to choose, I keep Latos.

 

[Redsfan1507]

A guy like me, used to the historical Reds Little Sisters of the Poor fiscal policy, am shocked at any long term deal...After the Bailey signing, I'm not sure they can't keep whoever they reallt want to keep. A lot depends on attendance, TV revenue, the MLB sharing agreement, and creative accounting. We don't see the balance sheet. Maybe there is more there than we know.

I suspect unless he pulls some bat magic out of his arse, they won't keep 37 year olds with 5 shoulder surgeries for $9M forever. Gotta believe there are a lot of farmhands that could play LF and swing a .250 bat for less money. They'll probably let a player go every now and then. Choo was a loss they didnt figure on affording to keep. Bailey is a pitcher, younger, and arguably more upside. Glad they chose to oust Volquez and keep Cueto, if he can be healthy especially.

They have 2 years to figure Latos and Cueto and Chapman contracts out. By then, Medoraco and Frazier and Cozart will be nearing the same conversations. Gas may be $6/gal and minimum wage $11/he by then.

 

[wvu_man]

As Reds fans, we already know that Homer didn't get the runs he needed to pick up more wins last season. Just for shits and giggles, I did a little digging to put it in black & white. Here are the scores of the games he started last season and lost:
10-0
0-0 (No decision)
1-0
4-2
3-2
7-1
5-4
6-0
5-3
5-0
4-3
5-2
2-1
6-4
4-2
4-1

Half of his L's, he either got zero runs or 1 run of support. In four games he got 2 runs, and the most he ever got was 4 runs. I realize that a few of these losses he got shellacked and exited early, but what are your chances of getting a win with that kind of offensive production? It baffles me that the majority of people who are bashing this contract is SO hung up on wins and losses.