Reds and Bailey nearing 6 yr 100 mil extension

[Ryanballa]

This got me excited, although it hurts chances of signing Latos. I think Bailey can be really great at age 28.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I'm sure this will make BP happy.

 

[JohnU]

I can say for sure, it won't make Cueto happy.
Or maybe it will.
Looks like Walt has gambled on the future and Bailey is the man.
I think I am OK with that, seeing what he has done in the last 2 years.

 

[redsfan03]

Yikes, that's a lot of money tied up to only a few players when you consider Phillips and Votto's long term contracts. If this goes through, it likely means Cueto and Latos will be gone when their contracts are up.

 

[JohnU]

I know they aren't required to and I have no specific ideas in mind, but I would hope that these extremely wealthy athletes give something back to their society.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Well, maybe Bannana Bob has a printing press. I don't think BP is underpaid, but he felt betrayed because they told him they only had $60 Mil to pay him, then they paid Pujols money to Votto. Now Bailey gets triple digit mils ? BP is gonna throw a fit and demand back pay, I'd say.

I'm just not sure anymore what the Reds financial plan is, but they are accumulating quite a list of guys it's gonna take a while to pay off. The crazy trend lately among over spenders is to promise $150 M, pay a couple years of it then trade them off for someone else to take over a partial payment. Kinda crazy, but it keeps them afloat I guess. It's market rate I guess for a guy under 30 with 2 no-nos already. I don't know if that means we'll recognize the roster in 4 years, but if the farm keeps churning MLB minimum salary talent, and they don't have to pay closers that don't pitch $21 mil, and platoon LF's $9M a year, they might still afford a team.

There is no guarantee long term contracts stay healthy but they are insured for injury- if they just stink but can play, it's a loss. It's always a risk, but when you got a good one, maybe it's safer keeping him than hoping Stevenson is just as good at a fraction of the money.

One thing is sure, more payroll keeps the pressure to win on...bad things happen when you owe $125 M and get 5,000 people showing up to boo the team.

 

[JohnU]

It would appear that Bailey's biggest problem was always between his ears but, as Chris Welsh said, part of what made Price look good as a pitching coach was that Bailey stopped being 22 years old and started being 26 years old.

In other words, he got smarter as he got older.

One would assume that plays out for the others on the staff. Reds pitching staff is still very young considering its potential. Replacing Arroyo with Cingrani is a step backward in that area but Cingrani is a hard worker. I don't think he will make us forget Tom Browning, though.

As for the money, I don't think anybody knows where it comes from or where it goes. I suppose TV revenue is the big cash cow. One wonders, what happens if nobody watches the games?

 

[Ryanballa]

The only thing Bailey really isnt good at is getting W's they have really never been there for him. But that stat can be very overrated. This could be a huge signing for the Reds, if Bailey is gonna be elite and thats the kinda money he is gettin, is to be elite he needs to find away to get the W's. I believe Bailey can be a 18-20 game winner, he is in his prime and now is the time to gamble on a guy like Bailey. Because if he would go out and win 20 games this year, Reds would not be able to resign him in offseason, so they gamble and hope he is what everybody thinks he can be.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I dont buy all of it but, newer metrics say wins are largely coincidence. There are peripherals that effect W/L that don't show up in the stats though. Catchers and defense make a difference, although catchers ERA can be deceiving...the lineup thrown out behind a pitcher has a lot to do with his chances of winning or losing. WHIP is a stat I pay attention to, HRA is more important the higher the WHIP. Bailey might be the worst in the NL at holding runners on too.

Stats show umpires really don't differ much in percentage of ball- strike calls, but IMO, pitchers if note get a few more calls, and even a few more E's don't wind up scored as hits. First pitch strikes effect hitters more than most calls ( other than 2 strike counts), and 2 no hitters probably buys HB a few more calls on the black. If he's healthy, and the Reds play decent behind him, I'd say 15 wins is probable.

 

[JohnU]

The reasonably new Quality Start" seems to be the one the scribes attach to rotation guys, and a lot of it has to do with the parts of the game the pitcher can control.

I'd agree that the first-pitch strike is important. Old Don Drysdale said the pennant is won or lost on the 1-1 count. Everybody on the field knows this, so it's not a mystery what the strategies are.

Lineup churn is important. On offense, it's where the Reds have been very poor lately. The pitchers, however, have cancelled it out generally.

I assume Bailey will be improved in that area.

What remains to be seen is if this inert offense can get some production out of 6 or 7 guys who tend to be a little feeble at times.

 

[LALakersboy24.7]

6 years for 100 million is not to bad, but not great neither, I think he should of got less years IMO.

 

[JohnU]

It is actually 5 years, plus the 1 that the team currently controls.
The $100M is probably what he'd get as a free agent.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Lots of Hall of Famers haven't tossed a no hitter, but a few flukes have. Homer's thrown 2. That puts him in a unique category. It proves it wasnt a fluke. Some guy named Cy Young had 3, as did Feller and one other guy born before the Civil War had 3. Koufax had 4, Homer's hero, Nolan Ryan is tops on the list at 7- he also had 24 other chances broken up in the last 3 innings, with 19 of them being one hitters...not to diss Homer, but only the triple digit guys can contemplate that- Randy Johnson had 11 such 7 inning chances, everyone else is fractional. Chapman might have that kind of impact, if he could get out of the bullpen.

Homer is only 27-28. I like his chances of success, if he stays healthy long enough to pitch to 35. $100 mil is a lot. $16M/yr doesn't sound as expensive. Who else is his age with 2 no hitters ? That criteria justifies the figure in today's unfathomable math.

BP wants a $100M deal too. He just hasn't accomplished anything that warranted it before he was 32. .265/18 + gold glove equals about what he's earning. He isn't Cano, but I betcha BP vents about getting a "screwing" anyway.

Bailey isn't Ryan either, but he's got a few things similar to guys like King Felix, Grienke, he just needs a Cy Young award to get in that pay range. If the Reds lock him up and he gets one, he'll be a bargain. If he wins 15 games a year, he'll be below market. I DO admire the Reds awarding LT deals to home grown stars. Beats the Miami Marlins plan.

 

[JohnU]

BP can show his class or his ass over this contract. Either way he goes, will matter a lot to the fans.
Homer Bailey is a very popular pitcher in Cincy.

 

[Ryanballa]

Still no agreement,I wonder what the hold up is.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Lawyers. Agents. Contracts. Details. Incentives, buyout clauses, options. Push and shove. It's spring training for chrissake... Shoulda done this in the offseason.

 

[JohnU]

It's OK.

Really, it is.

 

[Ryanballa]

Lawyers. Agents. Contracts. Details. Incentives, buyout clauses, options. Push and shove. It's spring training for chrissake... Shoulda done this in the offseason.

I agree 1507, seems like Reds front office likes signing players right before season starts. The past 2 big resignings Joey,Brandon came at the beginning of Spring Training.

 

[JohnU]

I agree 1507, seems like Reds front office likes signing players right before season starts. The past 2 big resignings Joey,Brandon came at the beginning of Spring Training.

it really isn't a trend. Bruce signed in the winter. I think Cueto did.
It's probably just when Walt decides to clear his desk and get to it.
They make these discussions fairly far in advance. The agents have more than one player, usually.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

It's pretty typical for arbitration eligible players to sign or extend in Jan. And Feb., top free agents mostly in Nov. and December. Players currently under contract play out randomly throughout the off season. I think the Reds timing is pretty typical of most MLB teams.

The Reds find themselves in a good situation fiscally. By being awarded the 2015 All Star Game they've almost guaranteed their season ticket sales and should see an increase over the 2014-15 seasons whether they win or not. To be eligible for All Star Game strips fans have to purchase season ticket plans this year and next year. If you're a 20 game holder I think it includes 2013 to be eligible. Then they have the local TV deal money coming in 2016. So there is a boost in cash flow to aid in keeping some key pieces long term.