Off Season

[Hit-n-Run]

Currently the Reds have 14 pitchers on the 40 man roster that have started in the Majors. Most have limited exposure, but that's a lot of players to sort through.

I would think Homer is the OD starter.

Castillo has earned his spot.

Disco and Finnegan would be the 1st two candidates for the DL. I could see Finnegan moved to the bullpen.

Romano has positioned himself right behind Castillo among the young guns. Stephenson next followed by Mahle and the rest of the order TBD later.

Amir Garrett is either going to be playing for another organization or on the OD roster because he's out of options. He might start the season in a similar role as Stephenson in 2017. I'm still not sure what that role was though.

If everyone is healthy the depth chart will be the OD rotation, but I don't see that being the case.

 

[JohnU]

I keep forgetting Mahle is on the fast track. I think he's a version of Mike Leake, which isn't all bad.
Gotta think Garrett is going to be held up as trade bait. Reds may go after a catcher if Mesoraco doesn't get to the starting gate. No reason to expect he won't.

If the Reds do a blockbuster, by the standards of such, I can see Garrett and Suarez moving, Suarez being the one guy a contender can use to get over the hump from 85 wins to 90 wins. Is Suarez worth 5 wins? Probably as he gets better.

Bailey should get the ball on OD. Probably it will be Castillo.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Even if Meso answers the bell you'd think the Reds would be looking for catching depth. It's the last year on his contract and extending Barnhart suggest they're ready to move on from Mesoraco. Good health for Mesoraco will bring plenty of July trade rumors.

Tyler Stephenson is probably the guy in a few years, but the options to fill the gap between him and Tucker lack balance in offense and defense. Stuart Turner in the Bill Plummer role. Chris Okey hasn't looked like a better option his first couple seasons.

We may be back to the switch hitting Latin backup catcher in 2019. Feliz Navida

 

[JohnU]

Even if Meso answers the bell you'd think the Reds would be looking for catching depth. It's the last year on his contract and extending Barnhart suggest they're ready to move on from Mesoraco. Good health for Mesoraco will bring plenty of July trade rumors.

Tyler Stephenson is probably the guy in a few years, but the options to fill the gap between him and Tucker lack balance in offense and defense. Stuart Turner in the Bill Plummer role. Chris Okey hasn't looked like a better option his first couple seasons.

We may be back to the switch hitting Latin backup catcher in 2019. Feliz Navida

Or Clementina, the guy they got for Cingrani.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

When the Reds traded for Hendrik Clementina the press painted it as a good trade acquisition. The buzz has since subsided.

He's only 20, but he hasn't played above rookie ball. I'm interested to see what level he starts at this season.

 

[JohnU]

When the Reds traded for Hendrik Clementina the press painted it as a good trade acquisition. The buzz has since subsided.

He's only 20, but he hasn't played above rookie ball. I'm interested to see what level he starts at this season.

I envisioned the conversation like this:
"We gotta dump Cingrani. The guy's terrible. You interested?"
"Sure, what do you want for him?"
"Mostly, take his salary off our hands and give us a couple of guys you don't wanna pay."
"Great, Van Slyke?"
"That'd be good. What else?"
"Dunno, what ya want?"
"Got any grapes? Or catchers?"
"We got Clementine."
"He's not a grape. He's an orange. But ... sure, we'll take him."

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Do you think after they evaluated him in fall instructs the report read
"He's slow and can't throw
Can't hit and is defensively challenged"
The head of development replied
"Great! Teach him to switch hit..... He's perfect!!

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I read that Tim Adleman has signed to play in Korea.

The roster was at 40 after claiming Kyle Crockett off waivers. The Reds usually go to the Winter Meetings with at least one spot open so they can participate in the Rule 5 draft.

With all the youth that has been added to the roster I was wondering who was the next domino to fall.

 

[JohnU]

Good for Addy that he has a chance to pitch.
Looking at the roster and evaluating talent, it's so hard to tell what players are worth.
Guys like Phil Ervin are easy to find and you can lose 2 or 3 to free agency and replace them without missing a beat, unless you try to do it with Skippy Shumakers.
Catchers are hard to find.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The Reds aren't on Ohtani's list of finalist he's looking to sign with. Did we really need to be told that. That falls into the category of No Shit Sherlock for me.

The Reds were limited to $300k due to the International signing bonus rules. Ohtani may be interested in more than just the money, but the Reds were never in the running for him.

 

[JohnU]

The Reds aren't on Ohtani's list of finalist he's looking to sign with. Did we really need to be told that. That falls into the category of No Shit Sherlock for me.

The Reds were limited to $300k due to the International signing bonus rules. Ohtani may be interested in more than just the money, but the Reds were never in the running for him.

I buy that this guy is a super player from Japan. I take 10 percent off for that. He will likely sign in Seattle but yeah, I think WIlliams has to pawn off that conversation because he knew it would come up at Redsfest.

 

[JohnU]

So Asher Wojo signs with the Orioles. I was sort of hoping the Reds could make use of him.
Looking at cheap FA pitchers so far, not seeing much movement. One guy who rises to the top is Drew Smyly, out last year with TJ and probably rehabbing part of this year ... could be a cheap pickup for the last half of the year with a team that has starters on innings governors. Smyly probably throws too many HR balls, but he'd be cheap and he is a lefty.

 

[navamind]

Fangraphs released their ZiPS projections for the Reds last week

 

[JohnU]

Fangraphs released their ZiPS projections for the Reds last week

I think that graphics mix is probably pretty close to accurate if we can even extend an evaluation of DeSclafani and Finnegan. I think there are some Reds fans with blinders who believe these guys will step up their game due to experience and there is some merit to that. I have yet to see them on the diamond, however, rather than in a whirlpool or some simulated game.
Castillo, Bailey and Mahle need to pitch this year. If they can get anything from Romano and Stephenson, fine.
With Disco and Finny, plus Garrett as an outside chance, it's not a terrible pitching staff.
They will miss Cozart more than they think.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The ZIPS type of projections are pretty much why some people don't value metrics. It takes the human factors out of the equation.

Injuries and player development are the two most pertinent factors that will determine which way this team trends.

If the assumption is the individuals aren't going to improve, then yeah..... this team will suck. But I don't see that way. I think it's reasonable to be optimistic.

 

[JohnU]

If the assumption is the individuals aren't going to improve, then yeah..... this team will suck. But I don't see that way. I think it's reasonable to be optimistic.

I think it is quite reasonable to expect improvement of young pitchers IF they can actually take a step forward. So far, all I have seen is rehabbing. That might get them past the part of their game that caused the injury in the first place and might make them more mechanically sound, but getting hitters out is the product of work, not research. So until Finny and Disco actually take the mound, we won't know what they have. Well, we know what they have had in the past. I agree, we have no choice but to be optimistic.

I do believe that having those guys will force a couple of other pitchers to step up to the line and prove they belong in MLB.

As an aside, I see where the Royals took a gamble on Wily Peralta. There's the sort of pitcher who can make a GM look like a G (genius) or M (moron).

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The reports at the end of instructs were favorable concerning Disco, but haven't heard anything about Finnegan's progress.

Either way it really doesn't matter until they're actually able to take the ball every fifth day. The injury prone nature of pitching by itself is enough to make those two questionable.

If Disco and Finny are a part of the path forward.... Great, but I'm more optimistic about Castillo, Romano, Mahle, and Stephenson. They all finished 2017 on a high note. Now we'll see if that's a trend or a small sample size of unsustainable success. The Reds need at least two of those guys to continue trending toward being above average. If it's more than two the Reds are in business.

 

[JohnU]

I think Mahle might be another version of Mike Leake.
Castillo could trend into Cueto territory.
Finnegan can draw his own map right now.
I think the question is with Garrett initially, and whether he's trade bait or long relief.
How quick is Hunter Greene going to move up. He's probably 3 years away, no more.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I don't think we'll see Greene make a Doc Gooden metororic rise to the Majors, but three years would be nice.

 

[JohnU]

I don't think we'll see Greene make a Doc Gooden metororic rise to the Majors, but three years would be nice.

Yeah we need to give him more time in the minors to pitch off a variety of mounds with 32 different coaches and a dozen guys telling him he needs to learn a cutter and a slurve and a forkball and and screwball so that when he gets to the bigs, he will already have 35 percent of his muscle mass ripped to shreds.
I don't know how good the kid is, or if he can play SS or LF or backup pinch runner. I would like them to teach the guy to pitch and let him pitch with the Reds. yeah yeah yeah ... the arb clock ... hell, the Reds can't afford to play with the arb clock.