Off Season

[Hit-n-Run]

You often hear Mahle described as a command pitcher as if he's a soft tosser. I've seen him throw as hard as 96 MPH. He tends to be around 92-93, but he can reach back for a little extra when he needs it. It's a huge advantage when the pitcher can dial it up a notch when he needs it. Cueto was the master at doing that.

In the end a pitcher has to be able to make pitches. I think Mahle is similar to Mike Leake in that regard, but with a better fastball.

 

[Redsfan1507]

For all the reported miracles of sports medicine, I've yet to see evidence of it in the Reds' return from surgery, at least while Reds. Homer Bailey might have many times more missed starts due to DL than he has actual GS in pro ball. What I saw last year didn't look like he has another no hitter left in him. REAL Reds Pitching depth is possibly as low as it's been in my lifetime. Even the 80's triple digit losers had Mario Soto. The best starter the current staff has is in the bullpen.

Cozart is sadly, representative of our recent Reds career route -a two tool player from the farm works himself up to respectability in his walk year, and the Reds let him walk because they can't/ won't pay MLB average wage. How many examples of the opposite have we seen -either trading an all star for nothing at the deadline, and/or signing a give-away journeyman for a career best three month stint,then sign them for 2 year deal, then they immediately revert back to mediocre bench/platoon/pinch hit level ? It's a tired script that is difficult to see as a rebuild plan.

I still think the farm is the only viable long term path of success for the Reds, and most small markets. The Reds do have to change that too, to be successful. I see some occasional maturation from draft to bigs , but almost never see the Reds improve or add a tool the player didn't bring with him. Pitchers can't throw strikes, and hitters can't hit them, not even close to often enough. The Reds from MLB front office to rookie league, beat themselves too much.

 

[JohnU]

Here is what I know about the NL.
Only 3 or 4 franchises have superior pitching ... Nats, Cubs, Dodgers, Mets (when healthy)
In other words, game for game, there should usually not be a team that isn't beatable.
So why do the Reds lose 90-some games? Is their pitching really that bad, or is it something else?
Cincy has an average roster with below-average pitching. Baseball history is full of those teams that go 5 or 10 games over one year, fall back to 10 under the next, trade everybody off, go 20 or 30 under ... then 3 or 4 years later, they are back to 5 or 10 over ... mix and pour.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I think it's the Reds unusually consistent combination in "down years"- low OBP lineup, no real starting rotation stopper and pretty lousy bullpen, in a addition to some of the worst fundamental situational play around...and obvious lack of whatever you want to call "winning philosophy"- veteran and/or managerial leadership that demands the daily commitment to execution. Even in better talent years, they find a way to underperform...I'm not in the clubhouse so I can't say, but maybe the bar is just too low in Cincinnati...too accepting of status-quo mediocrity-from the front office down to through the minors. If you can't count on a .230 hitter to get a bunt down, a regular player to make contact more than twice a game (or every 5th AB with a runner in scoring position), or ANY pitcher not to walk a hitter an inning, it's asking way too much to expect to play .500. I do understand it's a business, and there are legitimate payroll roadblocks that having 3-4 players take up half a roster payroll create, but this team LOOKS like the players are trying to win doing the same things that lost last night, year after year, with some different players that play similarly to those before them. Not lack of effort, just lack of execution. Is that all lack of talent ? If so, then the front office is incompetent...but they still want to raise prices every year. I've always believed that winning the balance sheet meant more to management than the W-L standings, but if they don't win, they don't come in Cincinnati. It's a lose/lose scenario. The success meter in MLB requires being able to pay off mistakes with more expensive solutions, or have a ready supply of non-FA eligible farm answers. You can't win without one or both... unfortunately where I think our Reds currently lie. I like several of the Reds young position players, but the current pitching staff is comprised of about 7 guys that could thrive in a lesser role with a much better staff around them, and about 5 that should be career AA filler. Gotta have better than that to win.

 

[JohnU]

I think the Reds CAN win a division with the talent they have. I don't think that's something we should count on as a barometer of the future. The 2010 team fits that mold. The 2012 team does not.
To some end, it is about luck. the 2014-17 teams had no chance to be lucky. We might be at that point now into 2020. After that, who knows?

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I think the mix and pour analogy is true for a lot of teams. Teams with limited resources are always in the constant flux of building and rebuilding.

I think the current roster has enough kindling to start a fire. Keeping the fire going will always be a problem.

 

[Redsfan1507]

In a small market, you gotta have farm help, AND health is more important, because they are forced to be roster thinner than the big dollar schemers.

On paper, Bailey, Desclafani, Castillo and Finnegan look passable as SP, if you ignore the injuries, which you can't...especially in the top 40% of the rotation. Drawing a 5th SP from Romano, Stephenson, Mahle or a surprise is sketchy enough. Lots of room for argument on wether the best arm on the team (Iglesias) is more valuable in the rotation than on a 90 plus loss bullpen, but this pen is so bad, in a bad way and would be worse without him. It's the Chapman quandary all over again.

Is Senzel a realistic 2018 add ? He's a hitter but may be a defensive project at 3b. Suarez isn't a SS and only average at 3b, but Duvall and Schebler would keep him out of the OF. Peraza looks like the only real choice at SS after Cozart, and 2b appears to be a Gennett/Herrera spot. Hate to say it, but Suarez, Duvall, Mesoraco and Hamilton aren't too far away from FA eligibility, so the Reds may be looking at dealing them at better value before they walk for little or nothing ,like Cozart ?? Gotta wonder.

 

[JohnU]

Hate to say it, but Suarez, Duvall, Mesoraco and Hamilton aren't too far away from FA eligibility, so the Reds may be looking at dealing them at better value before they walk for little or nothing ,like Cozart ?? Gotta wonder.

Looking at this year's FA list of about 20 percent of the players in MLB, i suppose it's folly to much care if a guy skips or stays. It's like getting an Earl Scheib paint job. It only needs to last till you sell the car.

In case you forgot ...........

 

[JohnU]

I see the Reds are playing their cards close to the wishbone so far this winter.
No surprise. I did see the Cubs added Drew Smyly and Tyler Chatwood.
The Cardinals added Marcel Ozuna and unloaded Piscotty.
It's still about pitching. The Parrots and Brewers seem to be doing what the Reds are doing.
The Rule V draft gets us a PTBNL.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Scheibe would paint the windows too if they weren't already taped off.

IMO, Cardinals aren't done yet. They've saved almost a quarter of a billion not paying Pujols since he left, and I gotta feeling they're going to spend some this coming year. Rumor has it they have some primo young pitching "depth", they would dangle for some ready talent. I don't think their fan base is going to settle for a repeat of last year's performance again, and since the Cubs won yawning last year, I can't see the Cardinals brass not feeling the heat. They are the only big market teams in the NLC. Personally, I believe if the Cardinals had plenty of upper level pitching, they would have used more of it last year.

If O's are in Sell Mode, and Machado could be traded for and then signed to avoid upcoming FA, I think the Cards are all over him. If he's just going to be a one year rental, I doubt they will give enough up in trade to get him. The Giants may though.

I'm moderately interested in what the D-Backs do. They got better pitching last year than many expected, and am curious to see if they believe enough in it to stand pat, or actually go get another impact name. They play in a tough division to chase payroll though. Dodgers are the Yankees payroll wise, and the Giants always seem to have money they haven't spent yet.

The Nats are the only team in the NLE, and apparently are more impatient than Dusty was used to. I don't see them spending much though, because of the upcoming monster offer to potential FA to be Harper. If it were me, I might trade Harper to the AL for half the 2020 all star team while the rest of the ALE are competing for the cellar spot. Marlins are emptying, the Braves got the equivalent of the NCAA death penalty, the Mets can't avoid TJ and holding a spot for old crippled Wright, and the Phillies still need half a roster. The Nats could clinch in August without Harper this year.

 

[JohnU]

I think the Phils are prepared to spend some cash this year. They have a lot of it to go around but I have no idea what they need to get out of jail.

I think half the AL teams are in scrap heap mode now, which is a switch from just 2 or 3 years ago when the NL had the same scenario. I think the White Sox are team team to watch this year and if they go after Machado, they might make it interesting until September. I think the Indians are going to need some bullpen help. Seattle seems to have a plan in place, whatever that means.

The Nats really do have to unload Harper. They might be all right for another year before the fuse starts to fizzzzzz.

Seriously, do we think the Rockies are that good and the Giants that bad?

The question for me is: Do the Mets try to get Jay Bruce back?

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The Rule V draft gets us a PTBNL

Trading a rule 5 draft pick probably involved the same conversation as your post #106 about catchers and grapes.

Maybe the Royals have a guy named Tangerine.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Dick Williams said he didn't feel compelled to make a trade and I can see he wasn't kidding. I'd say teams aren't interested in the players the Reds wish they could unload and the asking price is too high for the ones they really don't want to trade. Could still see a trade, but I don't expect it.

The Reds keep saying they have more money to spend on free agents this season. They won't be spending as much on International FA during their penalty phase and their Draft bonus pool will be less this season. The new TV deal should be kicking in as well. So I can see why they're saying that.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

It appears most teams aren't in a hurry to jump into the free agent market. The Reds are waiting on the teams that are waiting..... so we wait.

 

[JohnU]

It appears most teams aren't in a hurry to jump into the free agent market. The Reds are waiting on the teams that are waiting..... so we wait.

Honestly, I think the agents have too much work this year. About a third of the players in MLB are either free agents or are near enough to it to be part of the conversation.

I think WIlliams could have signed a half-dozen guys for the Louisville roster already and a lot of those guys are finding contracts. Seriously, I saw more guys on the FA list this year than I can ever remember.

So it may be a matter of organization first, fill in for budget-busters later on.

But if the Reds are true to form, they have established that they really can't upgrade between the lines without overpaying for a guy who is a marginal improvement. I don't pay much attention to WAR, and I never will. I trust the metrics to be right, and that's as good as it needs to get.

But yeah, I would rather have Ozuna in LF than Duvall -- part of the time.
I'd rather have Larkin at SS -- but he's in decline.

Getting back to the rant about pitching, it seems nobody can blame the Reds for not letting their current young guys get a shot at the Show. The ancient complaint that rookies don't get a chance in Cincy has shown to be a flat-out myth.

Still, if Hamilton ever learns to reach first base, this team can win 100 games.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I don't see the pitching to be as hopeless as some predict moving forward. I see enough young talent to make me optimistic.

There seems to be an assumption that the current top of the depth chart is the only path forward. Performance and health will weed out the weak as it always does. In a couple seasons the top of the depth chart will have completely different names. I'm optimistic it's going to get better.

 

[JohnU]

I don't see the pitching to be as hopeless as some predict moving forward. I see enough young talent to make me optimistic.

There seems to be an assumption that the current top of the depth chart is the only path forward. Performance and health will weed out the weak as it always does. In a couple seasons the top of the depth chart will have completely different names. I'm optimistic it's going to get better.

Quite true. Roster turnover is quite predictable for every team.

 

[eburg5000]

if Hamilton ever learns to reach first base, this team can win 100 games.

If Only

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Tim Adleman signing with a Korean team didn't garner a lot of attention, but is a classic illustration of how lopsided the Posting Systems are. The Angels pay $20m for the right to negotiate with Ohtani and Reds probably got a $100 Amazon gift card for Adleman.

I'm sure the Reds got more than that, but those kind of deals generally don't come with many details. I'm not clear on how the procedure even works when a MLB player under contract signs with a NPB or KBO team.

I'm assuming he didn't have to clear waivers because I would have thought some team would have claimed him.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Price has put any speculation concerning who is the Reds #1 catcher to rest. I didn't expect the Reds to announce Mesoraco would be the backup prior to ST, but I had already assumed that would be the case.