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JohnU

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I can't remember the last time the Reds signed a MLB experienced pitcher to a minor league contract and he pitched above expectations. By the time these guys enter the realm of minor league free agency their most valuable asset is they're expendable. He's the guy you call up and DFA the next day.

Sometimes you see a guy coming off injury that can be a cheap quality signing, but those seem on the rare side as well.

The Reds have had more success with the guys they've claimed off waivers. Alfredo Simon and Dan Straily are two good examples of pitchers that the Reds were able to squeeze some value out of. Not only did they initially pitch well, but they were able to flip them for Eugenio Suarez and Luis Castillo. Can't beat getting a guy for the waiver fee and league minimum and flipping him for a younger more talented player.
I think the art of knowing when to buy, what to buy and when to sell would be the subject of a great book on baseball.
The issue these days is that everyone is in the database and the numbers consistently prove that the baseball card reveals enough to fool only the densest front office.
All the same, the intangibles of playing a professional sport are hard to nail down. If Quacky or Badhop pitches like the metrics show they pitch, it would be foolish to ignore the metrics.

Dabbling in middle relievers is always a matter of seeing if the guy can give you a month of fair performance, a couple of games that you pull out of your ass ... or fill in some extra innings so you don't expose the bullpen for the Sunday getaway game. If a team has committed to letting their starters go only 5 innings and hope the 7-8-9 guys will save them, they will still get beat in the 6th inning, so which is worse ... a flat tire or a dead battery?

Depending on the injury, knees, shoulders and lower back ... all red flags. Elbows, well yeah if you can wait 18 months, you get the guy back. In the case of Amir Garrett, the hip is fixable so long as he didn't torque his shoulder adapting to it.
Then there are guys like Nick Masset who had enough tools to stay in the league despite not having the skills to get people out. Hoover is another in that group.
 

Hit-n-Run

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I see it's being reported the Giants are interested in Billy Hamilton. He's 2nd year arbitration eligible and unless the Reds plan on extending him, I'd guess they're at least listening.

I wouldn't think BH has a lot of return value if traded. So unless the Giants really like him I think it's more window shopping than a shopping spree.

These sort of rumors are generally useless, but at least it's something to read when there really isn't any noteworthy news.
 

JohnU

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I see it's being reported the Giants are interested in Billy Hamilton. He's 2nd year arbitration eligible and unless the Reds plan on extending him, I'd guess they're at least listening.

I wouldn't think BH has a lot of return value if traded. So unless the Giants really like him I think it's more window shopping than a shopping spree.

These sort of rumors are generally useless, but at least it's something to read when there really isn't any noteworthy news.
Hamilton doesn't make any team better but losing his CF defense makes the Reds worse. At this point, I think he's worth keeping.
 

eburg5000

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I couldn't imagine what the Giants would give for Hamilton. they maybe thinking they will give him away for a few low level minor league players. sort of like when the Reds traded Chapman to the Yankees
 

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I don't see any team making it worthwhile for the Reds to trade Hamilton.

It's obvious the Reds could use an upgrade offensively in CF, but so could a lot of teams.

It's a defensive first position, but there has to be some sort of balance between defense and offense. I don't think the Reds have a replacement that provides a net gain in that balance.
 

JohnU

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The issue with is not whether to play Hamilton, but where he fits in the batting order.
He keeps promising he will improve his walks rate/bunting/ground balls to fly balls ... and it hasn't happened. He isn't a good hitter and from the left side, he's almost inept. Defenses in the big leagues are not going to let him dribble it toward 3rd base and he's not strong enough to pull. No other team is going to win with a .280 OBP at the top of the order. 60 steals is still only a number.
 

eburg5000

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He does make things happened. When he gets on base, he can do things, few players can do. Maybe batting him ninth is the better option
 

JohnU

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Hitting BH 9th was at least tried, though I think Price was convinced BH would learn from that and improve. For awhile, I think it was reasonable to expect that. I still don't know why they insist on him switch hitting.
The whole thing is Dusty-like, IMO ... the fastest guy plays CF and leads off because in the book, that's how it always worked.
 

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There are times he'll create a run on his own, but the "make things happen" are far and few in between. He's a one man rally killer before it ever starts.

If he's going to play he has to bat where he gets the least amount of plate appearances.

I hear people say that he can't hit 8th because he doesn't need the pitcher to sacrifice him to 2nd. I guess they'd rather have the catcher running with two outs when the top of the order comes back up.
 

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I guess they'd rather have the catcher running with two outs when the top of the order comes back up.
With Barnhart that happens a lot.. Well sort of
 

JohnU

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I think the Reds have to maximize BH's skills, which is basically true of anybody on a roster.
In the past, it's been hard to measure at times. The matter of any skill set also depends on the rest of the lineup.

You don't need 8 Adam Duvalls in a batting order and you don't need 8 Billy Hamiltons. But you need to "mark" in all those categories. If Hamilton had Votto's OBP, you could do without Adam Duvall completely. You could put Xavier Paul in LF because he probably would have a better BA than Hamilton currently has, if that makes sense.
Bat Hamilton 8th. It's simple.
 

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Regardless of whom manages a team the lineup is determined by the available options on the roster at that given time. Sometimes a bad lineup is making the best out of bad options. The manager always catches most of the blame, but sometimes it's an organizational issue. At other times the manager's cookie cutter philosophy adds to the problem.

Whether we're talking about Dusty or Price it's been the same lineup. The fastest guy bats first, Votto 3rd and the catcher 8th with the rest being collages of misfits.
 

JohnU

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FWiW, the Reds failures this year were not the product of bad offense.

You could always ally behind wanting another run a game but that's not happening.
With this outfit, 2 more runs a game might have added 6 wins.
 

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I think my #72 post can just as easily cover the Reds pitching. The options are still dependent on health, acquisition and development of talent. It's not always the managers fault, but it factors in.

It's obvious the offense isn't the biggest problem, but the Reds offense was a NL average run scoring team in an up year for overall scoring. Every NL team that made the playoffs had better pitching, but they also scored more runs.

The pitching is the glaring weakness, but the offense needs to keep trending upwards.
 

JohnU

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I think my #72 post can just as easily cover the Reds pitching. The options are still dependent on health, acquisition and development of talent. It's not always the managers fault, but it factors in.

It's obvious the offense isn't the biggest problem, but the Reds offense was a NL average run scoring team in an up year for overall scoring. Every NL team that made the playoffs had better pitching, but they also scored more runs.

The pitching is the glaring weakness, but the offense needs to keep trending upwards.
Agreed on the uptick in offense esp. with guys running up steroid-level HR totals that will be conditioned down next year. I honestly no longer have an idea what it takes to win in the NL now other than that mess of a pitching staff that Price has run out there since 2014 ain't gettin' it done. If the front office is hoping this corps of rehab superstars is going to turn into the 1970 Orioles, well ... I will probably beg to differ.
 

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If the Reds had top of the line pitchers, I would doubt the Reds would pay them. And they would be gone as soon as free agency came around.
Not to be negative, but that seems to be the trend anymore. The Reds are working on a 5 or 6 year, start to finish window
 

JohnU

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I think the front office isn't so dumb as to think that these rehabbing guys are going to step up to 200 innings and 30 starts. Seriously, if Disco gives them 140 innings, color me shocked. Bailey might get 200. Nobody else will come close, Stephenson maybe 180.
Cincy will need to find a Scott Feldman who isn't broken down. I would be surprised if such a trade isn't made.
 

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If the Reds had top of the line pitchers, I would doubt the Reds would pay them. And they would be gone as soon as free agency came around.
Not to be negative, but that seems to be the trend anymore. The Reds are working on a 5

I don't think its being negative, it's more being realistic about how the Reds business model works.

When I look at the players the Reds traded I'm glad they didn't extend most of them. As it has turned out they would have been better off not extending Bailey and Mesoraco either.

If the Reds had kept Cueto, Latos, Leake, and Arroyo would they really be appreciably better off moving forward? They wouldn't be a contender with that group either.

I think the trend that is undeniable is that players provide there best production in their early years. I've never understood why a team would extend a player past their prime.
 

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I think the front office isn't so dumb as to think that these rehabbing guys are going to step up to 200 innings and 30 starts. Seriously, if Disco gives them 140 innings, color me shocked. Bailey might get 200. Nobody else will come close, Stephenson maybe 180.
Cincy will need to find a Scott Feldman who isn't broken down. I would be surprised if such a

The most innings any Reds pitcher threw at the MLB level was 122 (Tim Adleman). Some of the young guys may have gotten 150-160 split between the Reds and Milb, but I'd be shocked if a pitcher currently on their roster logged 200 innings next season.

Looking around both leagues it's surprising just how few the number of guys are logging 200+ innings. There was only 15 spread across 30 teams.

The only pitcher in the WS that logged 200 innings during the regular season was a late season trade acquisitions (Verlander). Darvis had 186 for the Dodgers. The next highest total innings for the Dodgers was Kershaw 175 and Wood 152. The Astros next guy was Fiers 150+.

To make the top 50 list you only needed 166 innings.
 
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JohnU

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The most innings any Reds pitcher threw at the MLB level was 122 (Tim Adleman). Some of the young guys may have gotten 150-160 split between the Reds and Milb, but I'd be shocked if a pitcher currently on their roster logged 200 innings next season.

Looking around both leagues it's surprising just how few the number of guys are logging 200+ innings. There was only 15 spread across 30 teams.

The only pitcher in the WS that logged 200 innings during the regular season was a late season trade acquisitions (Verlander). Darvis had 186 for the Dodgers. The next highest total innings for the Dodgers was Kershaw 175 and Wood 152. The Astros next guy was Fiers 150+.

To make the top 50 list you only needed 166 innings.
I'd say the Reds will be hard pressed to find 6 starters.
So far in 3 years, they are lucky to find 2.
 
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