Off Season

[JohnU]

There were more than 100 free agents this year, and not all of them were schmucks.
A lot of them were guys like Cozart. Reds already had his replacement on the roster, so that was kind of a process. Eventually all the guys who want to play ball will outnumber the spots available. Smells a little like MLB might start the "E" word again -- Montreal is just drooling for a franchise.

 

[eburg5000]

If they keep expanding me and ypu might have a chance to get a roster spot in a few years. Every team has guys on the roster now that probably couldn't make the minors 50 years ago. Not to mention that, not as many kids are playing baseball anymore, At least as far as I can tell. The talent pool is not as big as it once was

 

[JohnU]

If they keep expanding me and ypu might have a chance to get a roster spot in a few years. Every team has guys on the roster now that probably couldn't make the minors 50 years ago. Not to mention that, not as many kids are playing baseball anymore, At least as far as I can tell. The talent pool is not as big as it once was

Eventually, the MLB owners are going to have to reach out to the Asian leagues. I don't see that they can continue to operate like they do. But the Asian leagues don't have to cut a deal, so that's hard to see what would happen.
I think there are plenty of players but there is a real shortage of coaching and development. I wonder sometimes if the Dominicans actually are that good at developing players. A lot of them play a lot of ball, which means they will eventually find the really good ones like Cueto. But most of them are NDFA kids who don't know anything about the culture they are joining.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I don't think the Dominicans are superior in player or human development. I think it's more akin to sports human trafficking. There's many more tragic stories than successful players that make it big. These kids get plenty of steroids and no education.

Where ever there is professional baseball there's a barrier to MLB player acquisition. The Asian market already has an agreement protecting it's interest against MLB intrusion. It's hard to see where the Asian Leagues could get a better financial deal than the one already in place.

 

[JohnU]

I don't think the Dominicans are superior in player or human development. I think it's more akin to sports human trafficking. There's many more tragic stories than successful players that make it big. These kids get plenty of steroids and no education.

Where ever there is professional baseball there's a barrier to MLB player acquisition. The Asian market already has an agreement protecting it's interest against MLB intrusion. It's hard to see where the Asian Leagues could get a better financial deal than the one already in place.

I thought a little about it, yeah ... correct on both points. The Dominican situation is, of course, not MLB's problem and I confess to having not much real insight about it. Last I read, less than 100 DR players in the majors. I suspect twice that many in A ball or the indy leagues.
Of course, if the conversation is about how MLB gets more talent, that's a different topic than how many kids are playing ball on the islands. I suspect the difference in other places is, if you don't do baseball, do something else. In the DR, there are not as many options.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I can't disagree with above on MLB exploitation in the DR...but, sadly, without MLB presence in the DR they would be just like their neighbors in Haiti. The sugar and cocaine industries would exploit these kids worse, save them the PED's but still give them no education. Poverty, crime and illiteracy in Latin America, isn't MLB's fault.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Problems with MLB "replacing" Caribbean talent with Asian market talent are- unless you are talking about Japan, there really aren't too many talent laden leagues in Asia. I hate to get all biased, but the average 18 year old baseball player in Asia is probably 25 pounds and 4 inches shorter than in the DR or Cuba. They don't look like the PED nutrition is as good there either. Maybe those are related. The Reds recent Latin prospects all look like good kids that need some meat in their diets, but that's not always the case.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Expansion ? They can't sell out more than a couple games a year in Tampa, Miami, Oakland, and probably Cincinnati and Pittsburgh now. Lots of people keep dredging up Montreal, where half the people didn't understand baseball, and the other half hated it. MLB might have a better chance resurrecting a team in Brooklyn, hiring retired players and calling them the Codgers. Unfortunately, other than Canada, International MLB franchises are a fantasy until we solve light speed travel (Asia) or they ( PR/Cuba/Mexico/S.America) develop stronger, less volatile economies (and currency).

 

[JohnU]

Expansion ? They can't sell out more than a couple games a year in Tampa, Miami, Oakland, and probably Cincinnati and Pittsburgh now. Lots of people keep dredging up Montreal, where half the people didn't understand baseball, and the other half hated it. MLB might have a better chance resurrecting a team in Brooklyn, hiring retired players and calling them the Codgers. Unfortunately, other than Canada, International MLB franchises are a fantasy until we solve light speed travel (Asia) or they ( PR/Cuba/Mexico/S.America) develop stronger, less volatile economies (and currency).

I always think about the mess that happened in Montreal. The problem is, they keep thinking it will work.
Obviously Oakland and Tampax Bay are still looking for a couple of billion so they can build a ballpark just like they have in Miami where the Muffins will lose 109 games this year.
True about the Latin economy. Hell, they'd draw 4 million if they had a team in Havana.
San Juan, if they ever get the trash picked up, would also be a big draw. But the average wage there couldn't buy a Pete Rose jersey.

I don't see MLB expanding but I think there are going to be overtures toward it. The problem is, the cities that are mentioned have all just spent a lot of money building Triple-A parks -- OKC, Nashville, Charlotte ... and Las Vegas is near making a deal. Those cities are not going to agree to cough up a billion to replace a perfectly new ballpark no matter what.

That leaves Portland, which is the true definition of small market.

I think they can make Montreal into a decent franchise, but never a great one.

 

[eburg5000]

I used to live near Tampa. I went to several games when I was there. I never cared much for their ballpark Probably the worst MLB park that I've been to. Most of the people down there are from other cities and fans of those cities teams . It's hard for them to build there own fan base

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Tampa and Miami wouldn't have franchises if it weren't for having MLB average size TV markets. Doesn't mean people are watching baseball on TV, but it does mean the revenue stream is there.

There are bigger TV markets that don't have teams. Indianapolis would be a good example. But does anyone think St.Louis, Chicago, or Cincinnati wants a franchise in Indy?

There are plenty of cities that would like a piece of the pie. I think the MLB wants a bigger pie without cutting it into more pieces.

 

[JohnU]

Tampa and Miami wouldn't have franchises if it weren't for having MLB average size TV markets. Doesn't mean people are watching baseball on TV, but it does mean the revenue stream is there.

There are bigger TV markets that don't have teams. Indianapolis would be a good example. But does anyone think St.Louis, Chicago, or Cincinnati wants a franchise in Indy?

There are plenty of cities that would like a piece of the pie. I think the MLB wants a bigger pie without cutting it into more pieces.

I would need to be in the room when they talk about revenues. Naturally, the global internet has made revenue a different animal, as is witnessed by the hair-pulling every year over the vote for the All-Star game. MLB has not seen fit to deal with that issue, and it isn't likely to care. The ASG is a bubble in the bathtub for most fans but it's a hot-button issue at times. Without dealing with that topic, it's useful to see how it impacts the game. When people from Nigeria are deciding who plays SS for the AL, it's clear that revenues are connected to that process. In fact, paper ballots are history now.

I think Miami was targeted originally by the notion that the Cubanos would flock to see the games. In fact, they may have but that doesn't mean non-Latin Miami is devotedly in love with the Cubanos. All the same, MLB was naive enough to believe that would work. Later, they realized that Cubanos also don't like to see their team torn up after succeeding. The ballpark was the folly of the city.

Tampa has a team because they were promised the White Sox in 1992-something ... then the Sox pulled out of the deal when they were able to coerce a ballpark out of state money. Old Comiskey was falling down. But Tampa built the stadium believing they'd get the Sox. When they didn't, MLB said ... fine we will give you a team when we expand. Presto, Devil Rays. Blame that on the White Sox, who really would have moved if they hadn't gotten the ballpark to replace Comiskey. Had that happened, the Tampa White Sox would probably be moving to Montreal in a year or so, saying they need a ballpark -- or else.

I also remember when Finley told KC to build him a ballpark but somehow the city thought the A's needed to be better. So Finley found that Oakland had already built the Coliseum and moved there for that reason alone. I know this because I asked Bill Veeck once at a press conference, and he said flat out that was why the A's went to Oakland. The Giants ordered the A's go relinquish some serious territory and the A's have learned that the devil has come to settle the debt.

Yeah, Indy won't ever get an MLB team. I doubt they even care now. Victory Field is a nice Triple A venue.

 

[eburg5000]

I would think, if MLB would expand, Salt Lake City or If they would allow it Las Vegas. If a person in Salt Lake wanted to go to a MLB game at least an 8 to !0 hour drive maybe longer. Charlotte or maybe Nashville is probably the best location. in the east. Charlotte would dip into Atlanta's market and Nashville the Reds market. Atlanta could probably handle losing fans to Charlotte. I'm not so sure about the Reds losing fans to Nashville

 

[eburg5000]

I would think, if MLB would expand, Salt Lake City or If they would allow it Las Vegas. If a person in Salt Lake wanted to go to a MLB game at least an 8 to !0 hour drive maybe longer. Charlotte or maybe Nashville is probably the best location. in the east. Charlotte would dip into Atlanta's market and Nashville the Reds market. Atlanta could probably handle losing fans to Charlotte. I'm not so sure about the Reds losing fans to Nashville

 

[eburg5000]

I would think, if MLB would expand, Salt Lake City or If they would allow it Las Vegas. If a person in Salt Lake wanted to go to a MLB game at least an 8 to !0 hour drive maybe longer. Charlotte or maybe Nashville is probably the best location. in the east. Charlotte would dip into Atlanta's market and Nashville the Reds market. Atlanta could probably handle losing fans to Charlotte. I'm not so sure about the Reds losing fans to Nashville

 

[JohnU]

I think if MLB wants to expand, the safest thing to do would be to beef up the quality of play at the Triple-A level.
Most AAA cities have new ballparks now and cities are unlikely to cough up another 500 million to essentially tear them down and build one twice that big. Charlotte and Nashville just finished building.

The so-called upgraded AAA league could essentially be a 4-A league that is basically independent, meaning the franchises have somewhat more control over the rosters. It could be an 8-team league or even a 10-team league.

The Atlantic League bills itself as that but the franchises are in less appealing locations. The model is workable, howevver. The affiliated leagues could adjust to that.

 

[eburg5000]

I just noticed , The Reds first spring training game is on Feb 23rd; That's 25 days I think. That means Pitchers and catchers will be reporting somewhere in the 1st 10 days of Feb....feeling warmer already


I believe the regular season starts early this year.

Probably a good thing. So the WS won't run into Nov

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The earlier start date is because of more off days during the season.

Personally I'd rather shorten the season and have a warm OD. Especially since we haven't been deep enough into the Post Season in nearly 30 years to worry about Fall Classic weather.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Looking at the MLB FA list it's hard not to notice that half of the top 50 and 7 of the top 10 remain unsigned. I'd expect the Cubs, Brewers, and Cardinals to sign a few of them eventually.

The Brewers probably have less to spend, but need another SP. I expect them to go after a guy like Alex Cobb.

The Cubbies probably like Yu Darvish.

The Cardinals are 3rd place without making a splash. They may be even with a splash. Are they really that far ahead of the Reds? I say the gap has narrowed.

The Pirates are in full blown rebuild mode.

 

[JohnU]

The Phillies have money to spend, so it depends on their pace at the rebuild whether they want to lock up a guy they don't need. I am not impressed with them so far and they may be loading the cannon to go after Harper in a year. I think Cleveland will sign somebody.