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JohnU

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Yeah, I guess a 4-A is just the roster fodder. You can actually succeed with that player if enough of them have a good year. I always thought the Dodgers last year were a team of replacement level players with a pitching staff of 7 quality starters, Tony Cingrani and a bullpen.

I wonder how long it takes to negotiate an average FA contract. Does it take 4 hours, 4 days, a whole week here and there? If so, whatever time was spent signing Jeff Manship seems like it could be better invested.

I think the only guys out there now who interest me are Arrieta and Darvish, more Darvish. If he ends up in the NL-C, it won't be with the Reds or the Parrots.
 

Hit-n-Run

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Saw a report that Darvish signed with the Cubbies. I thought that was going to be where he landed.

I'm still looking for the Brewers to sign a SP with Jimmy Nelson out recovering from shoulder surgery. Alex Cobb maybe, I don't think they'll sign Arrieta.

Cashier wouldn't be a bad pickup for a team looking to fortify the rotation.
 

JohnU

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Darvish is the latest example of how the system just doesn't work if you don't have the bankroll.
The Reds develop guys and wait till it's time to make their move on a team that could be vulnerable only to find that the other team coughs up 12-figure money and go from 0 to 60 in one weekend. The question remains if Bob Stephenson's maturity is enough to balance out that of Darvish. So nothing really changes, does it?
And yeah ... Darvish has been hurt blah blah blah ... but he's still the 500-pound gorilla that gives the Cubs the inside track.
 

Hit-n-Run

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I think a lot of fans blame the players for the way the system works, but I blame the owners more than the players. The players have a role in it all, but the owners are more to blame for the lack of parity.

Without nearly 100% revenue sharing and/or a true hard salary cap the system will always favor the top revenue earners.
 

Hit-n-Run

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We've seen more teams filling their needs through trade rather than FA this offseason.

That's an area I think the Reds need to improve upon. We've seen them unload players nearing FA as part of the rebuild strategy, but the club hasn't been actively trading since to fill needs. It's like playing poker and being dealt five cards and never participating in the draw phase. I don't think the Reds have a pat hand, so why no trades?
 

JohnU

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We've seen more teams filling their needs through trade rather than FA this offseason.

That's an area I think the Reds need to improve upon. We've seen them unload players nearing FA as part of the rebuild strategy, but the club hasn't been actively trading since to fill needs. It's like playing poker and being dealt five cards and never participating in the draw phase. I don't think the Reds have a pat hand, so why no trades?
It's obvious that churn is the only process that works in big-league sports, which now also includes NCAA basketball at every level above the Atlantic 10. I think it's a matter of whether you'd rather have the blue Chevy or the white Chevy. You need a lefty right fielder, you trade for one from a team that signs a different one with a similar, different contract. Somewhere, every so often, a Jesse Winker manages to get a spot on a roster before he's 28 years old. Two years later, the entire roster looks like old history.
I am at a point where the 'lightning in a bottle' is about as good as it will ever get. We will never again experience a BRM, and that's fine. I liked the 80s when a new winner emerged every single year.
I also think the white knuckles over the 200-million-dollar contract gets in their eyes. Honestly, it's not real money. Pay the man and fucking at least TRY to win something. Nobody wants to watch another 90-loss season so that we can be a contender "maybe next year."
I ain't got that many next years left. Get some good players and stop pissing around with Todd Redmond and Ross Ohlendorf. Why did Jeff Manship merit a chunk of Reds payroll money? Did his agent have a wife with big knockers?
 

Hit-n-Run

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I don't have a problem with the Reds signing Jeff Manship to a minor league deal and a ST invite. If it were a MLB deal I'd feel differently.

Manship had a very good 2.07 combined ERA and 50% ground ball rate for 2015-16 with Cleveland and was nontendered when the Indians didn't want to pay him an arbitration salary. Metric geeks didn't like his supporting data which made them think the success was a fluke. He ended up signing with a Korean team for what was his projected arbitration salary.

He may be minor league fodder, but I think tbe guy is at least worth a look.
 

Hit-n-Run

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Amir Garrett has used the normal three years of options players are entitled to, but due to his first couple seasons being considered short season leagues he's eligibe for a rare 4th year. The short season rule has always applied to 4/5 year rule 5 draft eligibility and players being protected by being added to the 40 man roster. Not sure if the Reds initially made a mistake and added him to the 40 man a year early, but I'd think the same rule applies to both situations. Either way Amir Garrett has a potentially much needed 4th option year.

Cody Reed has been told he is competing for a BP role only. Around the Winter Meetings Price had stated two SP would later be told they were in that role this spring. Haven't heard who the second SP is.

Early reports list Rookie Davis as the only pitcher running behind schedule to begin ST activities. I'm sure the list will grow.
 

JohnU

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Amir Garrett has used the normal three years of options players are entitled to, but due to his first couple seasons being considered short season leagues he's eligibe for a rare 4th year. The short season rule has always applied to 4/5 year rule 5 draft eligibility and players being protected by being added to the 40 man roster. Not sure if the Reds initially made a mistake and added him to the 40 man a year early, but I'd think the same rule applies to both situations. Either way Amir Garrett has a potentially much needed 4th option year.

Cody Reed has been told he is competing for a BP role only. Around the Winter Meetings Price had stated two SP would later be told they were in that role this spring. Haven't heard who the second SP is.

Early reports list Rookie Davis as the only pitcher running behind schedule to begin ST activities. I'm sure the list will grow.
Garrett may turn out to be a nice piece of meat in a trade. I don't know if the hip problem he had impacted his game but I like him all in all. He seems the sort who is willing to learn. Maybe he tried to process too much info.
 

eburg5000

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unless there is something Rookie Davis has that I haven't seen. He should probably start looking for a career outside of MLB. He was probably pretty much done when he was with the Yankees. When they duped the Reds into taking him for Chapman. Which I might add compares just a little lower than the Frank Robinson trade only because Chapman was going to be a free agent at the end of the season. and the Reds got nothing but bodies for him. bottom of the barrel
 

JohnU

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unless there is something Rookie Davis has that I haven't seen. He should probably start looking for a career outside of MLB. He was probably pretty much done when he was with the Yankees. When they duped the Reds into taking him for Chapman. Which I might add compares just a little lower than the Frank Robinson trade only because Chapman was going to be a free agent at the end of the season. and the Reds got nothing but bodies for him. bottom of the barrel
I agree. I think the Reds panicked on that deal because they held onto Chapman way too long, trying to sell the sizzle to fans. Nothing like having a closer throw 103 mph to finish out one game a week.
By the time the Reds realized they had fucked up, they got anything they could for the guy and hoped they'd get lucky, and they sold Rookie Davis as a guy who was really sought-after. I even bought into that story.
 

Hit-n-Run

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The Reds will tell us they valued everybody they got in that trade, but the guy they had the most history scouting was Eric Jagielo out of Notre Dame. The Reds had him on the draft board and the Yankees took him with their first round #26 overall pick. The Reds had the 27th pick in 2013. Eric Jagielo has done nothing but slide downhill since being acquired.

The Reds initially held out too long and then didn't hold out long enough. The domestic violence issue and looming suspension put a damper on his short term value.

IMO,
The ensuing panic had more to do with the $11M salary they desperately wanted to unload. They already had that money earmarked for the International Market and the June Draft. They'd have been better served eating half of the $11M and trading him at July deadline.
 

eburg5000

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If they would have not traded him and he left don't they get a daft pick in the supplemental round, Probably would have been better than what we got
 

eburg5000

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I normally never have paid that much attention to the MLB daft. Usually a name you've never heard of, and you might see him on a MLB field in 5 to 8 years maybe. But that has changed some in the last ten years,. I guess it is cheaper to develop a player than it is to go with FA's. It's also an investment.
 

JohnU

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I normally never have paid that much attention to the MLB daft. Usually a name you've never heard of, and you might see him on a MLB field in 5 to 8 years maybe. But that has changed some in the last ten years,. I guess it is cheaper to develop a player than it is to go with FA's. It's also an investment.
Typically, to me, it seems like trades are either for the immediate benefit of the team or to stock the farm system with players. Either way, with 5 or 6 rosters to fill, the churn is quite regular. Guys who can't hack it, or get hurt, or some just not suited for life in this country. There's a whole Wal-Mart full of players. I see all of them eventually in the Indy leagues when they play at Gary.
 

Hit-n-Run

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Growing your own is monetarily cheaper, but requires sweat equity. Buying players on the market cost more with a no money back guarantee. Neither is a full proof strategy, but if you have the bankroll and lose enough to get the cream of the draft you become the Cubs. Every team can lose, but not every team has the bankroll.

The Reds can't afford to miss in the draft. Have to be smarter in trades and get more bang for their dollar in the FA market. It's lightning in a bottle as John posted earlier.
 

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The draft is only as good as a team's ability to first get them to the bigs, and then to pay them to stay. I'm not high on the Reds ability for either. The Cubs stunk for along time, IMO, because it didn't hurt their market share. In a few years, especially of they sign a few more Heywards, they too may be cash strapped playing the big market game. If they invested Heywards cash in the farm, they wouldn't have to worry as much. I gotta believe they would have been better paying Happ or Baez a third of Heyward's salary.

Hindsight is 20:20, but I still contend the Reds screwed up by NOT making Chapman a SP, and signing him instead of Bailey. Dusty and good ole Bronson had a part in convincing AC to resist starting.

There is something to Reds scouting ...that they seem to find Latin pitchers no one lese sees, but have trouble finding the stud down the street.
 

JohnU

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We know it IS possible for a pitching staff to thrive in GABP if the hitting is fair to decent. It happened in 2012, and that might have been a freak event. But it did happen. I can't say for sure if it will ever happen again and probably won't be as dramatic as it was. The rest of the division is now run by people who may be smarter than they were 6 years ago. Dunno.

Too many things need to go right for this team to contend after August, but not as many things are likely go go wrong now. Yeah, the pitchers are still throwing weighted balls around the locker room. We shall see.
 

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Here's one to ponder... nothing in technology is static, everything advances...except no one has developed a new pitch in a century...they just change the names for the same old pitches.
 

JohnU

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Here's one to ponder... nothing in technology is static, everything advances...except no one has developed a new pitch in a century...they just change the names for the same old pitches.
Alas the human body hasn't evolved much in 45,000,000 years, so the fingers and toes are still holding at 20.
But they do keep changing the bats.
 
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