Is Baker Mayfield a Bust?

[belcherboy]

If you're mediocre with a cheap qb that's entirely different

That’s why the Baker contract is so great. If they are mediocre (8-9 wins without a playoff spot), they can cut him without the pain.

I really think that is what will happen the next two years in Tampa. I think Cousins makes the Falcons a good regular season team, in a weak division, and the Bucs will be just on the outside looking in.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

That’s why the Baker contract is so great. If they are mediocre (8-9 wins without a playoff spot), they can cut him without the pain.

I really think that is what will happen the next two years in Tampa. I think Cousins makes the Falcons a good regular season team, in a weak division, and the Bucs will be just on the outside looking in.

he's 20 million in dead cap next year if he was cut.

conceivably they could kick the can down the road some

but still 20 million

 

[LeroyOU12]

That’s why the Baker contract is so great. If they are mediocre (8-9 wins without a playoff spot), they can cut him without the pain.

I really think that is what will happen the next two years in Tampa. I think Cousins makes the Falcons a good regular season team, in a weak division, and the Bucs will be just on the outside looking in.

I think BM did good last year for the bucs. He took them to divisional playoffs game without a running game, ranked 31 out of 32, and way below average defense, ranked 23 out of 32. Both the Saints and Panthers have better defense and running game than the Bucs.

Now the bucs need to improve their running game and defense to help out BM and to go deep in the playoffs.

 

[fastforward]

he's 20 million in dead cap next year if he was cut.

conceivably they could kick the can down the road some

but still 20 million

It's $10M guaranteed salary and $10M injury guarantees. The guarantee is for 2025 salary so the hit couldn't be delayed until 2026. Effectively it's a 1 year deal at $40M followed by options at $20M and $40M. If things blow up like they did with Russell Wilson then he could be released before the 1st year is up, but it's unlikely.

In regards to kicking the can down the road there's a potential Week 17 loophole where teams could alter future salary/bonuses but i'm not aware of any team that's exploiting this. Eagles will probably get there 1st.

 

[LeroyOU12]

MSN

 

[belcherboy]

he's 20 million in dead cap next year if he was cut.

conceivably they could kick the can down the road some

but still 20 million

That’s why I said two years. They aren’t going to cut him next year, but could in 2025 without much of a cap hit. It’s a good contract for the Bucs, and a solid payday for Baker in the short term.

 

[wilwhite]

his poor last year in Cleveland was entirely injury related.

And stubbornness related. He should have realized he wasn't helping his team.

 

[belcherboy]

I think BM did good last year for the bucs. He took them to divisional playoffs game without a running game, ranked 31 out of 32, and way below average defense, ranked 23 out of 32. Both the Saints and Panthers have better defense and running game than the Bucs.

Now the bucs need to improve their running game and defense to help out BM and to go deep in the playoffs.

BM had a solid season, but the Bucs still signed him to a contract they can easily get out of 20 months from now.

I don’t see them getting better in 2024, although I imagine that the NFC South will still be among the weaker divisions in football next year. If the Falcons improve with Cousins, I think the Bucs don’t make the playoffs again.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

It's $10M guaranteed salary and $10M injury guarantees. The guarantee is for 2025 salary so the hit couldn't be delayed until 2026. Effectively it's a 1 year deal at $40M followed by options at $20M and $40M. If things blow up like they did with Russell Wilson then he could be released before the 1st year is up, but it's unlikely.

In regards to kicking the can down the road there's a potential Week 17 loophole where teams could alter future salary/bonuses but i'm not aware of any team that's exploiting this. Eagles will probably get there 1st.

the majority of the guarantee is the upcoming season. 2024.

And stubbornness related. He should have realized he wasn't helping his team.

agree

 

[Stakesarehigh]

That’s why I said two years. They aren’t going to cut him next year, but could in 2025 without much of a cap hit. It’s a good contract for the Bucs, and a solid payday for Baker in the short term.

yes

next year

as in 2025. lol. with 20 mil dead cap still.

but yes I still agree it's a mutually beneficial deal

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

his poor last year in Cleveland was entirely injury related.

That is very true and the irony in that to me is that Trevor Lawrence has basically had the same early career arc as Baker but yet gets the excuses while Baker seems to get the blame because he rubs people the wrong way.

 

[DJ]

The only hesitation I would have with Lamar is his contract. With his lack of playoff success and injury history, I’d be a little worried about the long term ramifications of his contract.

On the other side, he is a FREAKY good athlete.

Lack of playoff success? It's not like HIS TEAM has never won a playoff game. They just appeared in the AFC title game and signed a beast RB in FA.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

That is very true and the irony in that to me is that Trevor Lawrence has basically had the same early career arc as Baker but yet gets the excuses while Baker seems to get the blame because he rubs people the wrong way.

I don't know what happened behind closed doors with Baker in Cleveland but he rubbed people wrong

I'd be remiss to not feel like there is a small racial component to Berry wanting the face of the franchise to be black.

I felt the exact same way about Troy Weaver only interviewing black coaches for the Pistons job.

That said I think Winston is a better choice for backup than Flacco. And DTR looks like he will be a good backup when he is ready.

 

[DJ]

Anybody that doesn't think Baker can be better next season is nuts. Last season was his first in a new offense. He is still just 28 years old. He is only going to get more and more comfortable with Evans, Godwin, and Otten.

 

[eaglesnut]

MSN

Lol these true football guys that can't speak are great.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

I don't know what happened behind closed doors with Baker in Cleveland but he rubbed people wrong

I'd be remiss to not feel like there is a small racial component to Berry wanting the face of the franchise to be black.

I felt the exact same way about Troy Weaver only interviewing black coaches for the Pistons job.

That said I think Winston is a better choice for backup than Flacco. And DTR looks like he will be a good backup when he is ready.

Yeah, the Flacco thing was a cute storyline and nothing more, imo. Flacco has been essentially washed for several years and is only good in that role of zero expectations for a handful of games at best. Not sure if DTR will ever amount to much but who knows. I have to think your boys won't have the carousel they had this past season and Winston is a capable back-up with enough experience to step in if Watson goes out again.
Can't really speak to the racial part of your post as I don't know what's in Berry's head but Baker obviously polarized people. A lot of this is more about perception than actual production, imo. Like I said earlier, Trevor Lawrence is idolized and loved yet has done nothing more than Baker did in similar circumstances.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

thw only downside to Winston is you could not have picked a worse qb track record wise with women.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

Anybody that doesn't think Baker can be better next season is nuts. Last season was his first in a new offense. He is still just 28 years old. He is only going to get more and more comfortable with Evans, Godwin, and Otten.

he could be better. I think he will be what he has been. Which can win football games as he's demonstrated several times now.

This idea of cutting him is ridiculous to me. Maybe year 3 if it's been a total bust? Injuries aside I don't see it.

It's not to make excuses for him but there is a logical reason for each year he underperformed.

His 2nd year under Kitchens was as destructive to his development as the labrum year

 

[belcherboy]

yes

next year

as in 2025. lol. with 20 mil dead cap still.

but yes I still agree it's a mutually beneficial deal

yeah, that's why I said 2 years. 2 NFL years would be, 2024 and 2025.

 

[belcherboy]

Lack of playoff success? It's not like HIS TEAM has never won a playoff game. They just appeared in the AFC title game and signed a beast RB in FA.

Maybe I'm being too hard on him in regards to his team's playoff performances in his career. I've viewed the Ravens as underachievers the past 4 or so seasons with Lamar as their QB.