Is Baker Mayfield a Bust?

[belcherboy]

Anybody that doesn't think Baker can be better next season is nuts. Last season was his first in a new offense. He is still just 28 years old. He is only going to get more and more comfortable with Evans, Godwin, and Otten.

I think he can get better, but I don't see it being a big jump at this point in his career. I'd have him just inside the top 15 QB's with Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Herbert, Burrow, Purdy, Stroud, Goff, Prescott, Tua, Lawrence, Stafford, Cousins, and even Love having more upside in 2024 than Baker.

So even if Baker does get better, I still don't see him cracking the top 10 of QB's, and that is why his contract is basically 2 years $50 million. If the Bucs are in any other division in football, we likely aren't even having this conversation as they would not have made the playoffs last year. With the Falcons making a huge improvement at the most important position, I think the Bucs won't make the playoffs next year.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

yeah, that's why I said 2 years. 2 NFL years would be, 2024 and 2025.

and if he was cut post June in 25 he'd be a 20 million dollar dead cap hit. They wouldn't escape this entirely without financial commitment. That said it's still a great deal. No matter what happens Baker gets 50 million and just last year that didn't look likely.

So people can continue to detract all they want on the dude but he's at least accomplished that

edit

now that I look at this thing it's likely they at minimum restructure his 3rd year into an extension. Although 2 years from now 50 million may be a deal with the direction this is going.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

I think we are saying the exact same thing and I'm just losing my mind this morning lol

 

[DJ]

I think he can get better, but I don't see it being a big jump at this point in his career. I'd have him just inside the top 15 QB's with Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Herbert, Burrow, Purdy, Stroud, Goff, Prescott, Tua, Lawrence, Stafford, Cousins, and even Love having more upside in 2024 than Baker.

So even if Baker does get better, I still don't see him cracking the top 10 of QB's, and that is why his contract is basically 2 years $50 million. If the Bucs are in any other division in football, we likely aren't even having this conversation as they would not have made the playoffs last year. With the Falcons making a huge improvement at the most important position, I think the Bucs won't make the playoffs next year.

Tampa and Atlanta will fight it out for the South. Whomever loses will make the WC IMO.

 

[belcherboy]

and if he was cut post June in 25 he'd be a 20 million dollar dead cap hit. They wouldn't escape this entirely without financial commitment. That said it's still a great deal. No matter what happens Baker gets 50 million and just last year that didn't look likely.

So people can continue to detract all they want on the dude but he's at least accomplished that

edit

now that I look at this thing it's likely they at minimum restructure his 3rd year into an extension. Although 2 years from now 50 million may be a deal with the direction this is going.

Again, that's why I said two NFL years and they pretty much take no cap hit (the 2024 and 2025 seasons).

I'm not bagging on the guy. He's a bargain and they can put some expensive pieces around him. I just don't think they will be that great of a team the next 2 seasons. At that point, I think Baker would have to have playoff appearances to get a 3rd season or it might be time to start a rebuild. It's tough to get a good rookie QB when you're winning 8+ games a year.

 

[eaglesnut]

thw only downside to Winston is you could not have picked a worse qb track record wise with women.

That's not important for football.

 

[belcherboy]

Tampa and Atlanta will fight it out for the South. Whomever loses will make the WC IMO.

With Tampa's schedule this year, I see it being tough for them to win more than 9 games. I don't think that will get you a wild card. I think Atlanta wins the division. They really crapped the bed at the end of last year and Cousins makes them much better IMO.

I'm probably just underestimating the Bucs though.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

That's not important for football.

they also watch football

 

[eaglesnut]

they also watch football

Only when they're told to.

They're not getting into free agency this week.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

Again, that's why I said two NFL years and they pretty much take no cap hit (the 2024 and 2025 seasons).

I'm not bagging on the guy. He's a bargain and they can put some expensive pieces around him. I just don't think they will be that great of a team the next 2 seasons. At that point, I think Baker would have to have playoff appearances to get a 3rd season or it might be time to start a rebuild. It's tough to get a good rookie QB when you're winning 8+ games a year.

I'd agree that by year 3 he's going to have to be worth the investment.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

Only when they're told to.

They're not getting into free agency this week.

My wife and I were just discussing Jameis yesterday actually.

She is not thrilled with it.

 

[belcherboy]

I'd agree that by year 3 he's going to have to be worth the investment.

I think that is why they signed it this way. I would believe that very few people in the Bucs organization think he will be the Bucs starting QB in 2026. He shocked them last year, won a big playoff game, and got better as the season progressed. He earned a nice paycheck, and $25 million a year for a starting QB who isn't on his rookie contract is a good team deal. I just think he has pretty much hit his ceiling and will need a lot of help from the rest of the team if they hope to have success next year.

The Bucs had a pretty bad offense and defense last year, both sides of the ball ranking in the 20's in the NFL. I just don't see them being much of a threat next season. Their schedule also looks really tough.

 

[DJ]

I think that is why they signed it this way. I would believe that very few people in the Bucs organization think he will be the Bucs starting QB in 2026. He shocked them last year, won a big playoff game, and got better as the season progressed. He earned a nice paycheck, and $25 million a year for a starting QB who isn't on his rookie contract is a good team deal. I just think he has pretty much hit his ceiling and will need a lot of help from the rest of the team if they hope to have success next year.

The Bucs had a pretty bad offense and defense last year, both sides of the ball ranking in the 20's in the NFL. I just don't see them being much of a threat next season. Their schedule also looks really tough.

Tampa was 7th in ppg allowed.

 

[belcherboy]

Tampa was 7th in ppg allowed.

They were also ranked 23rd in passing and rushing yards allowed: 2023 NFL Defense Rankings: Team Pass and Rush Stats | FOX Sports

The Eagles defense were the only playoff team with a lower defensive ranking last year than they had.

 

[DJ]

They were also ranked 23rd in passing and rushing yards allowed: 2023 NFL Defense Rankings: Team Pass and Rush Stats | FOX Sports

The Eagles defense were the only playoff team with a lower defensive ranking last year than they had.

Points is pretty much all that matters.

 

[DJ]

And the Bucs still made it to the Divisional round.

 

[belcherboy]

Points is pretty much all that matters.

Absolutely, when looking at last year's schedule. When looking at future schedules, you want to know how many yards your team is giving up. On top of that, their offensive stats were ranked 23rd in the NFL last year too. 2023 NFL Offense Rankings: Team Pass and Rush Stats | FOX Sports

There wasn't a lot that this team did well on either side of the ball, but they didn't give up a lot of points. That is a good thing. I don't think I'd take much comfort in that going into next year if they don't change some things up. I'm not sure you can fix that in one draft and free agent period though.

 

[belcherboy]

And the Bucs still made it to the Divisional round.

But you still have to put it in context. You, yourself said that they played a terrible Eagles team last year in the playoffs (I didn't believe you and I was wrong). They were the only playoff team with a lower defensive ranking than the Bucs last season.

The Bucs won 9 games last year, and in my opinion, this season will have a tougher schedule for them. I'm sure they will improve some, but I don't think it will be enough to get them back to the playoffs over Atlanta (which I think winning their division is their only playoff shot). It's tough to ignore their team rankings on both sides of the ball going into next season. Again, just my opinion.

 

[DJ]

But you still have to put it in context. You, yourself said that they played a terrible Eagles team last year in the playoffs. They were the only playoff team with a lower defensive ranking than the Bucs last season.

The Bucs won 9 games last year, and in my opinion, this season will have a tougher schedule for them. I'm sure they will improve some, but I don't think it will be enough to get them back to the playoffs over Atlanta (which I think winning their division is their only playoff shot). It's tough to ignore their team rankings on both sides of the ball going into next season. Again, just my opinion.

I didn't say Philly was terrible.

I said the Bucs would beat them.

 

[belcherboy]

I didn't say Philly was terrible.

I said the Bucs would beat them.

I'm sorry, I thought you had said they were a bad team to end the season. There were lots of Eagles fans calling them terrible and I probably just lumped you in with them.

Where would you have ranked the Eagles among all playoff teams last season?