What do you do with Purdy if you are the 49ers?

[phantomfoul88]

I'm on the fence with Purdy, I put him in the same category as Goff. Both need absolute studs around them, Purdy's the poster boy for Check Down Charlie with great skill players. I believe he was in the bottom half of 20 yard completions this year.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Again, no diss to Purdy, he deserves a lot of praise for a fantastic season, but before they drop a big contract on his lap, they have to figure out if it is the QB or if it is the system that makes QB's so successful in SF. This is why I question whether the system is the secret sauce with Shanahan:

View attachment 354387

LOL
missing one small stat.
How many points they score led by each.

I personally use the # 24 as my over & under.
If score under 24 & you win. You give credit to the defense (in general)
over 24 points & you lose. You blame the defense. (in general)
or say it vice versa. (about the offense) But you basically get what I am saying with the number 24.
Purdy full season vs. Jimmy G full season

2023 Niners under Purdy had 4 games under 24 points. (all losses)
2021 Niners under Jimmy G's year. 8 games under 24 points not including playoffs, which BTW all games in playoffs didnt reach 24 points.

Gamers over 30 points.
2023 - 10 games
2021 - 6 games

Jimmy G isnt even close to being as good as Purdy.

 

[Robotech]

Again, is it the system or the QB when the results are the same? If you win the same amount of games with the same system do you really need to spend a lot of money on one QB?

That’s my question. Shanahan’s system has now done it with 3 different QB’s.

QB play is just one factor in the win-loss record. The truth is that Purdy is better than Jimmy regardless of having the same record in their first 27 starts. After his first 27 starts with the Niners, Jimmy G's went 21-13 in his next 34 starts. There are a lot of factors that go into that drop in his record; however, I doubt that the Niners' player evaluation of a QB only looks at won-loss record.

The truth is that you need both the system and a QB that fits the system, but you also want the better guys (e.g., Purdy) over the lesser guys (Jimmy). The other truth is that an NFL team must typically pay the market value for a player when the time for extension or free agency comes. When he becomes eligible and if he is still playing very well, then the Niners will offer Purdy the market value for his services, so yes, you really do need to spend a lot of money on a QB if he has performed very well in your system.

To pay less than that for their QB, the Niners would have to draft a QB to take over for Purdy or find a diamond in the rough player via trade or free agency who they believe will perform the same or better. This is very risky, so they probably won't do this, but if they see someone they really love, then they might go for it. To pay equal to that for a better player, they will need to hope that a top tier QB becomes avaialable via trade or free agency, which doesn't happen often, but it does pop up sometimes.

 

[cwalke3408]

Again, is it the system or the QB when the results are the same? If you win the same amount of games with the same system do you really need to spend a lot of money on one QB?

That’s my question. Shanahan’s system has now done it with 3 different QB’s.

I mean Matt Cassel went 10-5 with NE, was Tom Brady just a system QB?

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

I'm on the fence with Purdy, I put him in the same category as Goff. Both need absolute studs around them, Purdy's the poster boy for Check Down Charlie with great skill players. I believe he was in the bottom half of 20 yard completions this year.

That 20 yd completion number, while true that is is in the lower half is not a very good stat to use. In the top 10 of the category, we have Tua, Howell, Carr and Mayfield and just outside of that is Geno Smith at 323 which is only 15 more than Purdy or less than 1 per game. Even Stafford has only 18 more than Purdy. Purdy had 1 more than the MVP Jackson but that has obvious other factors.
Those types of stats are very easy to cherry pick but they are more often than not a lousy evaluator of a QB. Fwiw, in 2019, Mahomes had only 319 while JimmyG had 329. My only point here is that picking out specific stats is mostly meaningless for QB play in the NFL.
Also check out this graph when talking about the checkdowns. Again, not a good evaluator.
Most Checkdown Passes Thrown By Qb | StatMuse

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

On another note, as a Seahawk fan, I'm feeling soiled, dirty and sick to my stomach that I have to defend the Niners on this board so y'all need to stop while I still have some semblance of dignity left.

 

[belcherboy]

I mean Matt Cassel went 10-5 with NE, was Tom Brady just a system QB?

Did Matt Cassel take them to a SB? Shanahan has taken 3 QB's to a SB.

 

[belcherboy]

LOL
missing one small stat.
How many points they score led by each.

I personally use the # 24 as my over & under.
If score under 24 & you win. You give credit to the defense (in general)
over 24 points & you lose. You blame the defense. (in general)
or say it vice versa. (about the offense) But you basically get what I am saying with the number 24.
Purdy full season vs. Jimmy G full season

2023 Niners under Purdy had 4 games under 24 points. (all losses)
2021 Niners under Jimmy G's year. 8 games under 24 points not including playoffs, which BTW all games in playoffs didnt reach 24 points.

Gamers over 30 points.
2023 - 10 games
2021 - 6 games

Jimmy G isnt even close to being as good as Purdy.

But does that matter if your team goes to the SB? What I'm trying to point out, that seems to get lost in this discussion, is that Shanahan has taken 3 different QB's to the SB in an 8 year span. That seems to indicate that it could be the system more than the QB (not that the QB doesn't matter, but that the system may be more of the determining factor of success than the QB in this system). It's just my speculation, and it is likely way off!

 

[belcherboy]

QB play is just one factor in the win-loss record. The truth is that Purdy is better than Jimmy regardless of having the same record in their first 27 starts. After his first 27 starts with the Niners, Jimmy G's went 21-13 in his next 34 starts. There are a lot of factors that go into that drop in his record; however, I doubt that the Niners' player evaluation of a QB only looks at won-loss record.

The truth is that you need both the system and a QB that fits the system, but you also want the better guys (e.g., Purdy) over the lesser guys (Jimmy). The other truth is that an NFL team must typically pay the market value for a player when the time for extension or free agency comes. When he becomes eligible and if he is still playing very well, then the Niners will offer Purdy the market value for his services, so yes, you really do need to spend a lot of money on a QB if he has performed very well in your system.

To pay less than that for their QB, the Niners would have to draft a QB to take over for Purdy or find a diamond in the rough player via trade or free agency who they believe will perform the same or better. This is very risky, so they probably won't do this, but if they see someone they really love, then they might go for it. To pay equal to that for a better player, they will need to hope that a top tier QB becomes avaialable via trade or free agency, which doesn't happen often, but it does pop up sometimes.

Again, does it matter if the results are the same? Does it really matter which QB is better when they have identical records and they both go to the SB? Is it the system when the same coach takes 3 different QB's to the SB in an 8 year span? Could it be easier to find "diamonds in the rough" in Shanahan's system? Again, just me thinking out loud.

 

[shopson67]

I understand there is a difference between them, but in the same amount of games, the results were the same in wins and losses. The stats were pretty similar too.

So again I ask, is it the QB or the Shanahan system that is the biggest contributor for success in SF?

The same question was asked in NE with Brady, and I think it was shown it was the QB.

It's definitely Shanahan's system, but I think it's also clear that 7th rounder Purdy is an upgrade over 2nd rounder Jimmy.

It wasn't just the QB in NE, despite everyone's rush to kill Belichick's legacy. It's not that a different QB couldn't get it done; they had CRAP QBs trying to replace Brady and a defensive coach as an offensive coordinator. Bill's (and the Patriots') decisions post-Brady were largely terrible.

 

[shopson67]

Again, does it matter if the results are the same? Does it really matter which QB is better when they have identical records and they both go to the SB? Is it the system when the same coach takes 3 different QB's to the SB in an 8 year span? Could it be easier to find "diamonds in the rough" in Shanahan's system? Again, just me thinking out loud.

Shanahan brings in QBs (other than the odd trade up for Lance) that fit his system instead of trying to fit a square peg into a round hole.

Imagine this Niners roster had they not traded up. 3 1sts and a 3rd put to proper use?

 

[belcherboy]

It wasn't just the QB in NE, despite everyone's rush to kill Belichick's legacy. It's not that a different QB couldn't get it done; they had CRAP QBs trying to replace Brady and a defensive coach as an offensive coordinator. Bill's (and the Patriots') decisions post-Brady were largely terrible.

Belichick was lucky to have Brady. Outside of Brady, his record is pretty bad.

Shanahan seems to be successful no matter who is his QB. That's why I think the secret sauce with his success is not the QB. Now, you can't just throw any QB in his system, but I think that Shanahan is WAY more important to his team's success than a specific QB. The same can't be said of Belichick.

 

[belcherboy]

Shanahan brings in QBs (other than the odd trade up for Lance) that fit his system instead of trying to fit a square peg into a round hole.

Imagine this Niners roster had they not traded up. 3 1sts and a 3rd put to proper use?

I'm finding it hard to believe that Shanahan strategically planned to get Purdy with the last pick in the draft. That's why I think it is the system much more than the QB.

 

[shopson67]

I'm finding it hard to believe that Shanahan strategically planned to get Purdy with the last pick in the draft. That's why I think it is the system much more than the QB.

As a fit for depth at the position? Absolutely. As a starter? Good fortune.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Belichick was lucky to have Brady. Outside of Brady, his record is pretty bad.

Shanahan seems to be successful no matter who is his QB. That's why I think the secret sauce with his success is not the QB. Now, you can't just throw any QB in his system, but I think that Shanahan is WAY more important to his team's success than a specific QB. The same can't be said of Belichick.

Saw this on NBC Player News ( formerly rotoworld) and think it sounds about right:

 

[belcherboy]

As a fit for depth at the position? Absolutely. As a starter? Good fortune.

Maybe you're right, but I don't think they thought of him as any of the above. I'd bet many in the draft crew thought there was good chance he wouldn't even make the team (slotted as a practice player). From what I can tell, most teams don't keep more than 2 QB's on the active roster. It was good for Purdy that Trey Lance was so bad and Jimmy G was coming off of surgery. I had read that Nate Sudfeld was higher on the depth chart going into the season.

Again, I think Purdy's success if much more a product of Shanahan's system than what Purdy brings to the table. I only say that because of Shanahan's ability to bring 3 different QB's, on two different teams, to the SB in such a short time period. It's not a slight on Purdy, but I imagine it will be discussed when Purdy is up for a big payday. Having a cheaper option at QB probably gives them the flexibility to have the right guys at the right places in that system.

As always this isn't a slight on Purdy. I hope he proves me wrong and he has a long and award filled career. He did a GREAT job this season.

 

[belcherboy]

Saw this on NBC Player News ( formerly rotoworld) and think it sounds about right:

View attachment 354477

I too think Purdy will have another great year next year, if most his offense stays healthy. That will begin the conversation for the 49ers on whether they want to sink significant salary capital into him, or whether they may be able to find something cheaper and similarly efficient elsewhere. They really have 2 full seasons to make this decision, and they can always franchise him another season after that.

I actually think much of Purdy's future with the 49ers will be determined by if they can win a SB in the next 2 seasons. If they can't, I wonder if Shanahan will just try to find another QB for his system. Also, it will be interesting to see if the 49ers draft another QB in this draft.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

But does that matter if your team goes to the SB? What I'm trying to point out, that seems to get lost in this discussion, is that Shanahan has taken 3 different QB's to the SB in an 8 year span. That seems to indicate that it could be the system more than the QB (not that the QB doesn't matter, but that the system may be more of the determining factor of success than the QB in this system). It's just my speculation, and it is likely way off!

well yes. (if you are comparing QBs to each other)

One QB is riding the Defense all Trent Dilfer style, where the team is winning maybe in spite of their QB.

The other QB is helping in the success of the team with his offense.

BTW you're not wrong about a system. No QB wins a Superbowl without a good system in place. No one is gonna confuse Purdy with Dan Marino or Peyton Manning. (who could just carry a team deep into playoffs, no matter the system or caliber of the team)

My point being is the Niners are a much, much more stout team with Purdy at the helm, than when Jimmy G was the QB.
Which means Purdy makes this system much stronger than Shanahan's previous Niner QBs.

 

[fastforward]

The 49ers were dominant in the 1st half. However, they committed sloppy penalties and suffered injuries. Add a turnover and they probably should have had a 17 or 20 point lead at the break.

 

[Jikkle]

They have another full season to decide and since he's not recovering from major arm surgery he should have a normal offseason of work which should help him for next season.

It's underappreciated because he plays like a vet but he really doesn't have a ton of starter experience with just a season and half of work now so he hasn't even peaked yet mentally.

The focus for the 9ers should be revamping the offensive line. The QB play gets the focus but the core problem with the offense isn't the QB but the offensive line. The recipe to beat the 9ers offense is pretty simple it's just not a lot of teams have the ingredients to do it. Play tight coverage and be able to rush 4 and it's lights out for the 9ers offense regardless of who is taking the snaps.

Once they come across a defense that can just flat-out win physically at the point of the attack and completely ignore all the eye candy Shanahan tries to throw at them it's over. The passing game dies because nobody is open and the pass rush doesn't afford the QB time to let guys get open and the running game dies because guys are just getting completely defeated on their blocks. 3 of the games the offense struggled the most was against the Browns, Ravens, and Chiefs because they could do this.