49ers v. Chiefs - Super Bowl

[Niner Outlaw]

Well, we made it to SB 58 and it took 2 late game comebacks to get there. Unfortunately, we're playing against the best QB and HC in the league.

Sure, we're coming off the high of beating the Lions in something of a shootout, but they got several lucky bounces/decisions in that game that ensured the Niner victory.

This isn't a rematch of the last SB matchup. Our last SB against these guys we had a much better defense, but they had a much better offense (Hill, Oline, etc.). Still, the Niners now have a much better offense than last time (Purdy, CMC, Deebo, etc.). The Chiefs now have a much better defense than last time--their secondary has been lights out lately. It's a game of interesting improvements for both teams.

The big matchup will be the Niner offense against the Chiefs defense. The Niners have a top 3 offense. However, Chiefs defense is 2nd in points and yards. In passing yards per attempt, they are 3rd. That is crazy good. OTOH, the Chief rushing defense was 24th in the regular season in ypc. That is something the Niners can exploit--assuming our HC doesn't try and show everyone how smart he is--remember what he did (didn't do) against the Packers? The Niner running game shoudl be able to be find some holes agianst the Chiefs defense, but we've got to stick with it. The Chief defensive strength is in the secondary and at LB. Their CBs tackle well, but not great, and the front 4 will likely be handled similarly to the way the Niners attack Aaron Donald, so that the team can try and neutralize Jones.

On defense, the Niners struggle at stopping the run, particularly since Wilks has taken over the defense (I foresee some coaching/personnel changes in teh offseason). Niners are near top of the league against the pass, but are middle of the pack against the run, while the Chefs are middle of the pack in both ypc and ypa. That is interesting. The CHiefs struggled in their passing game much of the regular season, but their passing offense turned around and greatly improved in the playoffs. That is something that bears watching. And again, the Chiefs can run the ball well with Pacheco and their HC isn't stupid enough to just abandon the run when it's working (ala Detroit). Time and again, Mahomes has been able to find Kelce these playoffs and Pacheco has been able to get good, hard yards. Kelce and stopping the run shoudl be the focus of the Niner defensive effort. Whether Warner or Brown or Gipson or hell even Ward have to shadow him, he must be covered at all times for the pass defense to have a shot.

Speaking of the Niner pass defense, we must see something from our pass rush to have a real shot against the Chiefs. They will be without Thuney at OG and their OTs are nothing to write home about. Mahomes is just slippery enough to escape would-be sacks and easily whiney enough with the refs to get lots of flags should anyone dare to actually hit him. But that means we shoudl still hit him when the chance presents itself--if he's running downfield, don't go for the ball fake, hit the QB and hit him hard.

I expect Reid to go with lots of screen plays against us, since that has been one of his MOs against our defense for years. It takes advantage of our aggressiveness on defense.

Most importantly of all, Mahomes is the best QB in the NFL. He is the X factor that even good defenses can't account for.

Due to the Mahomes/Reid X factor, I hate to say it, but This is a game the Niners will probably lose. I expect us to keep it close for much of the game, but our defense just isn't what it's been in the last few years and it is that defense that will decide whether or not we win this game.

Well, what do we think?

 

[Sandisfan]

Fina analysis. Of course that's why they play the games cause you never know.

P.S. right about now wouldn't it be great if Shanny had drafted a real good CB in the last three years?

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Fina analysis. Of course that's why they play the games cause you never know.

P.S. right about now wouldn't it be great if Shanny had drafted a real good CB in the last three years?

Some coaches and FO personnel, just have blind spots that they can't fill in the draft. Belicheater has WRs. Kyle's dad, Mike Shanny, was famously always famously unable to draft a good CB. He eventually traded his star RB (Portis) for Washington's star CB (Bailey).

 

[deep9er]

Well, we made it to SB 58 and it took 2 late game comebacks to get there. Unfortunately, we're playing against the best QB and HC in the league.

Sure, we're coming off the high of beating the Lions in something of a shootout, but they got several lucky bounces/decisions in that game that ensured the Niner victory.

This isn't a rematch of the last SB matchup. Our last SB against these guys we had a much better defense, but they had a much better offense (Hill, Oline, etc.). Still, the Niners now have a much better offense than last time (Purdy, CMC, Deebo, etc.). The Chiefs now have a much better defense than last time--their secondary has been lights out lately. It's a game of interesting improvements for both teams.

The big matchup will be the Niner offense against the Chiefs defense. The Niners have a top 3 offense. However, Chiefs defense is 2nd in points and yards. In passing yards per attempt, they are 3rd. That is crazy good. OTOH, the Chief rushing defense was 24th in the regular season in ypc. That is something the Niners can exploit--assuming our HC doesn't try and show everyone how smart he is--remember what he did (didn't do) against the Packers? The Niner running game shoudl be able to be find some holes agianst the Chiefs defense, but we've got to stick with it. The Chief defensive strength is in the secondary and at LB. Their CBs tackle well, but not great, and the front 4 will likely be handled similarly to the way the Niners attack Aaron Donald, so that the team can try and neutralize Jones.

On defense, the Niners struggle at stopping the run, particularly since Wilks has taken over the defense (I foresee some coaching/personnel changes in teh offseason). Niners are near top of the league against the pass, but are middle of the pack against the run, while the Chefs are middle of the pack in both ypc and ypa. That is interesting. The CHiefs struggled in their passing game much of the regular season, but their passing offense turned around and greatly improved in the playoffs. That is something that bears watching. And again, the Chiefs can run the ball well with Pacheco and their HC isn't stupid enough to just abandon the run when it's working (ala Detroit). Time and again, Mahomes has been able to find Kelce these playoffs and Pacheco has been able to get good, hard yards. Kelce and stopping the run shoudl be the focus of the Niner defensive effort. Whether Warner or Brown or Gipson or hell even Ward have to shadow him, he must be covered at all times for the pass defense to have a shot.

Speaking of the Niner pass defense, we must see something from our pass rush to have a real shot against the Chiefs. They will be without Thuney at OG and their OTs are nothing to write home about. Mahomes is just slippery enough to escape would-be sacks and easily whiney enough with the refs to get lots of flags should anyone dare to actually hit him. But that means we shoudl still hit him when the chance presents itself--if he's running downfield, don't go for the ball fake, hit the QB and hit him hard.

I expect Reid to go with lots of screen plays against us, since that has been one of his MOs against our defense for years. It takes advantage of our aggressiveness on defense.

Most importantly of all, Mahomes is the best QB in the NFL. He is the X factor that even good defenses can't account for.

Due to the Mahomes/Reid X factor, I hate to say it, but This is a game the Niners will probably lose. I expect us to keep it close for much of the game, but our defense just isn't what it's been in the last few years and it is that defense that will decide whether or not we win this game.

Well, what do we think?

The NFL no longer has "shut-down" defenses, due to rule changes. So while KC does have a good defense, the 49ers should still score points. To win this game I feel we need to score over 30 points, meaning score touchdowns vice field goals. If the 49ers can't score and end up depending on the defense, we deserve to lose.

The 49ers defense isn't as good as advertised, but its not terrible either. A 'bend but not break' (couldn't think of anything else short of this?) game will work if we hold them to more FG's than TD's. This defense is weak against the run but the rest is good enough to win. Chase Young needs to play within the scheme and play hard on EVERY play.

ST's cannot make mistakes like fumbling and giving up long returns. Moody may or may not miss a field goal, but if the rest of the ST plays are "mistake free", we'll be ok.

So in the big picture I think its our offense will determine if we win or not. Don't turn it over and we'll be in position to win.

 

[deep9er]

Fina analysis. Of course that's why they play the games cause you never know.

P.S. right about now wouldn't it be great if Shanny had drafted a real good CB in the last three years?

Its always good to have solid CB's, but the disappointment is lack of pressure. While Bosa just got 2 sacks, the investment in the D-line is supposed to result in more 'disruption'.

Drafting is not an exact science, so they've tried but haven't been successful with CB's.

BTW - Look at the Lions TWO starting CB's, the 49ers weren't able to "abuse" them?

 

[sharkymcwrath]

Well, what do we think?

As good as the 49ers are I think it's going to be really hard to stop KC right now.

I'm rooting for SF but man oh man is that a tall order.

 

[Yosemite Sam]

Kyle Shanahan and Steve Wilks cannot afford to waste another first half. The Andy Reid Chiefs have been well prepared and executing from the opening kickoff. It is inexcusable to come out flat on defense and out of sync on offense.

5-man line one defense, with Kinlaw or Day-Jones on the field instead of Burks, and Lenoir outside, will isolate impact pass rushers one-on-one against Chiefs offensive linemen and reduce the size of wholes between the tackles. This relies on the supreme talent of Warner and Greenlaw, plus the capable safeties (Gibson and Brown), to cover Kelce and clean up when Pacheco carries the ball. One thing you can never do: give the best QB in football time and a clean pocket - he will pick any defense apart. Wilks should create chaos rather than be passive. NOTE: if you get stymied by Creed Humphrey et al., and you cannot get to Mahomes, ARMS UP! Knock down a few passes.

Reid will counter the 5-man line with 3 WR sets, trying to force Wilks into nickel defense. Ji'Ayir Brown has to step up in man coverage or the zone needs to be shallow.

Chris Jones is a handful. The interior offensive line needs to be stout.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Kyle Shanahan and Steve Wilks cannot afford to waste another first half. The Andy Reid Chiefs have been well prepared and executing from the opening kickoff. It is inexcusable to come out flat on defense and out of sync on offense.

5-man line one defense, with Kinlaw or Day-Jones on the field instead of Burks, and Lenoir outside, will isolate impact pass rushers one-on-one against Chiefs offensive linemen and reduce the size of wholes between the tackles. This relies on the supreme talent of Warner and Greenlaw, plus the capable safeties (Gibson and Brown), to cover Kelce and clean up when Pacheco carries the ball. One thing you can never do: give the best QB in football time and a clean pocket - he will pick any defense apart. Wilks should create chaos rather than be passive. NOTE: if you get stymied by Creed Humphrey et al., and you cannot get to Mahomes, ARMS UP! Knock down a few passes.

Reid will counter the 5-man line with 3 WR sets, trying to force Wilks into nickel defense. Ji'Ayir Brown has to step up in man coverage or the zone needs to be shallow.

Chris Jones is a handful. The interior offensive line needs to be stout.

Yea, we've come out flat or off in the last 2 games. If we call down 17 against the Chiefs, we'll never get back out of that hole. Kyle can't have a "feel them out" few series. We have to come out with a definite, aggressive game plan. We cannot abandon the run--if CMC doesn't get 20 carries and a few catches in this game, I will question our game plan (again). ANd Purdy has to come out sharp--he's done it most of the season, but ever since that Bmore game, he's been a little off, particularly early in games. He has to be crisp out there.

We've had serious trouble stopping the run in the playoffs. I'd expect the Chiefs to run the ball often (until we can stop it) and then go play action. I like the idea of a 5 man DLine more often. Burks was taken advantage of quite a bit against the Lions.

I'd expect us to try and handle Jones the same way we've blocked Aaron Donald in the past. It's usually worked to slow him down quite a bit. I know that the Chiefs move Jones around a lot, so our usual Donald plan might not work all the time. STill, that shoudl be our blocking foundation.

We'll have to be careful of batted balls at the LOS. That is something the Chiefs do well and something our Oline and Purdy have to be ready for.

 

[deep9er]

As good as the 49ers are I think it's going to be really hard to stop KC right now.

I'm rooting for SF but man oh man is that a tall order.

It will be a tall order but while all the attention goes immediately to Mahomes (with good reason), Purdy has played REALLY well all season. Without looking it up, pretty sure Purdy's stat line is better than Mahomes including efficiency stats. Anyway, Purdy isn't 'Mahomes" but right now he's close in his own way. Add in the rest of the 49er weapons and they'll score on KC. In today's NFL, a good offense will score on a good defense.

The 49er defense hasn't been playing well of late, but they still have the horses. Having a lot of 'horses' has the potential to play better as a unit. Multiple 'horses' have the potential to make the in-game adjustments work. Predict the 49er defense will play well enough to keep KC around the 20-23 range. KC's season average is around 17 points per game according to a Youtube.

If the 49ers commit too many mistakes, then all of this doesn't matter. Only the 49ers can beat themselves.

 

[Dean_Youngblood]

Little late to the Super Bowl party here... not sure I have much more to add on top of what's been mentioned above, but let me give it a go.

Do you guys really think they'll employ a 5-man Dline front? I can't see them getting too far away from their base scheme for that long. Maybe throw it in early a few times to confuse things, but when they've made "risky" decisions to load up on one side or blitz, timing has really been bad (in the playoffs at least). I seem to recall more than a few plays where we blitzed on one side of the field, only to have a WR screen go to the other side for big yards. Maybe it's just bad timing, or something we give away on our blitzing patterns. Either way, it just seems like Reid/Mahomes would find a way to take advantage of that pretty quickly.

That being said, Pacheco is a friggin beast. If he gets going early and has success, it'll keep the defense on their heels and will definitely lead to big play action oppty's. Maybe just sell-out on the run entirely, but with Brown instead of an extra DLine man so that recovery is "possible". I dunno, I'm not knowledgeable enough to weigh the pros/cons there.

Totally agree that we need a fast start on offense. Get a rhythm early and a heavy dose of CMC/Deebo out of the backfield so that the entire playbook is available and Purdy can snap the ball from under center more than he has these last two games.

Absolutely think this is winnable, but probably not if things go the way they did against GB and the Lions. Pacheco worries me. Obviously Mahomes worries me. But the 9ers special teams worries me too. The kicking game and return game have been suspect for a while now. If they can get going on offense, put pressure on Mahomes and not let Pacheco run all over them, I like the 9ers chances. Not that I'd put money on them as the 2pt favorite, though.

 

[Jordan23]

Defense is key. Our offense is better than the Chiefs. I just don’t have the confidence I did with our D like I did a good chunk of the season. If we can get pressure or keep the chiefs to 17-20 points I think we win. Can’t give Mahomes time to move around back there either.

 

[Dean_Youngblood]

Defense is key. Our offense is better than the Chiefs. I just don’t have the confidence I did with our D like I did a good chunk of the season. If we can get pressure or keep the chiefs to 17-20 points I think we win. Can’t give Mahomes time to move around back there either.

would be great if the 9ers have the ball last too... definitely don't want to see Mahomes with the ball down by 4 with less than 4 min to play

 

[deep9er]

Little late to the Super Bowl party here... not sure I have much more to add on top of what's been mentioned above, but let me give it a go.

Do you guys really think they'll employ a 5-man Dline front? I can't see them getting too far away from their base scheme for that long. Maybe throw it in early a few times to confuse things, but when they've made "risky" decisions to load up on one side or blitz, timing has really been bad (in the playoffs at least). I seem to recall more than a few plays where we blitzed on one side of the field, only to have a WR screen go to the other side for big yards. Maybe it's just bad timing, or something we give away on our blitzing patterns. Either way, it just seems like Reid/Mahomes would find a way to take advantage of that pretty quickly.

That being said, Pacheco is a friggin beast. If he gets going early and has success, it'll keep the defense on their heels and will definitely lead to big play action oppty's. Maybe just sell-out on the run entirely, but with Brown instead of an extra DLine man so that recovery is "possible". I dunno, I'm not knowledgeable enough to weigh the pros/cons there.

Totally agree that we need a fast start on offense. Get a rhythm early and a heavy dose of CMC/Deebo out of the backfield so that the entire playbook is available and Purdy can snap the ball from under center more than he has these last two games.

Absolutely think this is winnable, but probably not if things go the way they did against GB and the Lions. Pacheco worries me. Obviously Mahomes worries me. But the 9ers special teams worries me too. The kicking game and return game have been suspect for a while now. If they can get going on offense, put pressure on Mahomes and not let Pacheco run all over them, I like the 9ers chances. Not that I'd put money on them as the 2pt favorite, though.

Agree they can't just line up in the base Wide 9 all game, but don't see them coming out in 5 man fronts, that's just not their scheme. You can't just install it in 3 days of practice AND be successful. Do see them keeping the inside LBs moving around and mixing up the run blitz and pass blitz. Same with the Safeties, they have to mix it up depending on down and distance, bring one up to help the run D whether wide or not.

Pachecco can be a beast but so was Aaron Jones, David Singletary, and Jamyr Gibbs. You can't sell out to stop the run, you just have to accept their RB will get some yards. Just don't allow a 52 yarder like Aaron Jones got.

We naturally look at the Chiefs and get concerned, but look at what the Chiefs defense have to worry about - CMC! CMC is also a beast and he can help the passing game on top of that. CMC can help even on check downs. The Chiefs D is good but can it cover everybody if Purdy gets it out quickly and accurately.

Only the 49ers can beat themselves, play a 'clean' game and we win.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Little late to the Super Bowl party here... not sure I have much more to add on top of what's been mentioned above, but let me give it a go.

Do you guys really think they'll employ a 5-man Dline front? I can't see them getting too far away from their base scheme for that long. Maybe throw it in early a few times to confuse things, but when they've made "risky" decisions to load up on one side or blitz, timing has really been bad (in the playoffs at least). I seem to recall more than a few plays where we blitzed on one side of the field, only to have a WR screen go to the other side for big yards. Maybe it's just bad timing, or something we give away on our blitzing patterns. Either way, it just seems like Reid/Mahomes would find a way to take advantage of that pretty quickly.

That being said, Pacheco is a friggin beast. If he gets going early and has success, it'll keep the defense on their heels and will definitely lead to big play action oppty's. Maybe just sell-out on the run entirely, but with Brown instead of an extra DLine man so that recovery is "possible". I dunno, I'm not knowledgeable enough to weigh the pros/cons there.

Totally agree that we need a fast start on offense. Get a rhythm early and a heavy dose of CMC/Deebo out of the backfield so that the entire playbook is available and Purdy can snap the ball from under center more than he has these last two games.

Absolutely think this is winnable, but probably not if things go the way they did against GB and the Lions. Pacheco worries me. Obviously Mahomes worries me. But the 9ers special teams worries me too. The kicking game and return game have been suspect for a while now. If they can get going on offense, put pressure on Mahomes and not let Pacheco run all over them, I like the 9ers chances. Not that I'd put money on them as the 2pt favorite, though.

I think we could see more than usual 5 man fronts b/c in our regular base defense, Burks was abused by the Lions, in the run and the pass. STill, I honestly think we'll be nickel most of the game.

I agree that An early good start on offense is essential. We've got to stick to the run and be happy getting just 4ypc for a while until a bigger play is made.

 

[Dean_Youngblood]

Agree they can't just line up in the base Wide 9 all game, but don't see them coming out in 5 man fronts, that's just not their scheme. You can't just install it in 3 days of practice AND be successful. Do see them keeping the inside LBs moving around and mixing up the run blitz and pass blitz. Same with the Safeties, they have to mix it up depending on down and distance, bring one up to help the run D whether wide or not.

Pachecco can be a beast but so was Aaron Jones, David Singletary, and Jamyr Gibbs. You can't sell out to stop the run, you just have to accept their RB will get some yards. Just don't allow a 52 yarder like Aaron Jones got.

We naturally look at the Chiefs and get concerned, but look at what the Chiefs defense have to worry about - CMC! CMC is also a beast and he can help the passing game on top of that. CMC can help even on check downs. The Chiefs D is good but can it cover everybody if Purdy gets it out quickly and accurately.

Only the 49ers can beat themselves, play a 'clean' game and we win.

Agree with everything you've said... if the 9ers play the game the way they did for most of the year, I like their chances. They just haven't been as consistent on defense in these playoffs. And the gameplan on offense has been... questionable, I guess?

 

[Dean_Youngblood]

I think we could see more than usual 5 man fronts b/c in our regular base defense, Burks was abused by the Lions, in the run and the pass. STill, I honestly think we'll be nickel most of the game.

I agree that An early good start on offense is essential. We've got to stick to the run and be happy getting just 4ypc for a while until a bigger play is made.

Tend to agree with you... wonder who the nickle back is. So far they've played Lenoir there, I believe, with Thomas covering the outside. Ambry is the guy that scares the bejeezus out me. Not that we really have other options at this point, but there's definitely something to exploit there, and I fully expect Reid to take advantage of that.

 

[deep9er]

Agree with everything you've said... if the 9ers play the game the way they did for most of the year, I like their chances. They just haven't been as consistent on defense in these playoffs. And the gameplan on offense has been... questionable, I guess?

Agree, the 49ers just need to execute the offense same as all season. Yes, there we poor spots but overall, this offense was efficient all season. Our offense WILL move and score against the Chiefs, just don't make mistakes along the way.

Larry Krueger said the Chiefs ran a conservative offense against the Ravens, at least in the 1st half. I would expect they'd start off the same way so our defense shouldn't be 'gashed' early on. Give up the shorter yards and make them earn each drive. I'm fine if they move downfield for field goals.

 

[Sandisfan]

From the early Fumble by CMC the rest of the game felt like a slow motion wreck where a garbage truck in unknowingly on a steep street going for the first trash pick up and finds there is black ice on the road. No stopping it while slowly descending.

 

[calsnowskier]

Remember when this franchise was a SB beast, not in conversation with Buffalo and Minnesota?

 

[Sportster 72]

Was bad luck. You did enough to win .... missed extra point and a fluky punt that hits your guys foot was the difference.