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Outback Bowl early look: Florida vs. Iowa
How Iowa beats you: There have been a couple explosive offensive performances this season, and quarterback C.J. Beathard is capable of stretching the field when the Hawkeyes need a spark from the passing attack. But more often than not, Iowa is going to lean on an old-school formula by featuring a pair of physical tailbacks and letting a hard-nosed, sound defense do the heavy lifting. Already this season the Hawkeyes have won three games while scoring just 14 points, a tribute to a defense that hasn’t earned much national acclaim but has been one of the best in the country at keeping teams off the scoreboard. One of those victories was the upset of Michigan last month, so Iowa has proven it can step up to the challenge against even some of the top offenses in the nation -- which bodes well against a Florida program that ranks No. 110 in scoring.
How Florida beats you: Florida's defense can make plays with the best of them. As long as the defense can make the field shorter for the offense to work with, forces turnovers and doesn't give Iowa much room to work with, the Gators will be tough to stop. Florida has proven time and time again that its defense can carry the team against struggling offenses. On the season the Gators ranked in the top 10 nationally in scoring defense (17.9 PPG), passing defense (156.3 YPG) and total defense (298.3). Florida's defense also coupled 73 tackles for loss with 30 sacks on the season. Florida can play in the trenches with a team like Iowa.
How you beat Iowa: Kirk Ferentz doesn’t really have a team that’s comfortable trading scores in a shootout, so putting some pressure on to keep up the pace early could prove pretty useful for the Gators. If there’s a preferred way to try to move the football against the Hawkeyes, it’s likely on the ground. Iowa has one of the best cornerbacks in the country patrolling the secondary in Desmond King, but the rushing defense finished just No. 8 in the Big Ten by allowing more than 153 yards per game. Penn State may have provided the ideal blueprint for knocking off the Hawkeyes, establishing itself quickly on the ground, building a multi-score lead in the first half and cruising down the stretch by sacking Beathard four times and grabbing an interception.
How you beat Florida: Just let Florida's offense do its thing. This offense has an easy time going in reverse (just look at the losses to Arkansas, Florida State and Alabama). Florida has registered less than 300 total yards in four of its last five games, turning it over 10 times in that span. Quarterback Austin Appleby just got done throwing three interceptions in that SEC title game loss to Alabama, while the Gators rushed for a net gain of zero yards in that game. Florida's offense has a tendency to help out opposing offenses by being a determining factor in those opposing offenses working with short fields. Also, short offensive drives for the Gators lead to a tired Gators defense for offenses to feast on late.
X factor for the Hawkeyes: LeShun Daniels Jr. The workload doesn’t have to be carried entirely by the bruising senior thanks to Akrum Wadley's ability to step in and make an impact as well, but the Hawkeyes looked to be at their best down the stretch when Daniels was prominently featured in the backfield. During the three-game winning streak to close the regular season, Daniels rushed a total of 69 times for 371 yards and four touchdowns as Iowa finally looked the part of the Big Ten contender they were expected to be in the preseason. With only one more outing left in his career with the Hawkeyes, don’t expect Daniels to hold anything back against the Gators.
X factor for the Gators: Jordan Scarlett. Florida doesn't have an elite passing game so they absolutely need Scarlett to do something in the running game in order to generate some sort of offensive spark. He nearly hit 800 yards on the season, and he has shown flashes of being a special talent. He can be a grinding rusher or a slasher for the Gators. His tough play against LSU was crucial in the Gators' SEC East-clinching win in Baton Rouge.
Bold prediction: The Hawkeyes will hold another offense to 13 points or less. Combining Florida’s offensive woes with Iowa’s solid track record on defense this season probably isn’t a formula that is going to produce the prettiest matchup. But Iowa has already proven it doesn’t care much for style points as long as it wins. And if the Gators wind up being the seventh opponent to fail to top 13 points against the Hawkeyes this season, there’s a good chance Ferentz will claim another victory.
Bold prediction: The Gators will score more than 20 points for the first time since Florida 20-7 win over South Carolina back on Nov. 12. Jim McElwain and offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier have no choice but to throw the kitchen sink at Iowa's stout defense. Florida needs to generate some sort of momentum going into the final stages of the recruiting season, and something that will get recruits excited is an offensive pulse. Florida will dive deeper into its playbook to find things we didn't think were possible from this coaching staff to clear the 20-point mark in January.
How Iowa beats you: There have been a couple explosive offensive performances this season, and quarterback C.J. Beathard is capable of stretching the field when the Hawkeyes need a spark from the passing attack. But more often than not, Iowa is going to lean on an old-school formula by featuring a pair of physical tailbacks and letting a hard-nosed, sound defense do the heavy lifting. Already this season the Hawkeyes have won three games while scoring just 14 points, a tribute to a defense that hasn’t earned much national acclaim but has been one of the best in the country at keeping teams off the scoreboard. One of those victories was the upset of Michigan last month, so Iowa has proven it can step up to the challenge against even some of the top offenses in the nation -- which bodes well against a Florida program that ranks No. 110 in scoring.
How Florida beats you: Florida's defense can make plays with the best of them. As long as the defense can make the field shorter for the offense to work with, forces turnovers and doesn't give Iowa much room to work with, the Gators will be tough to stop. Florida has proven time and time again that its defense can carry the team against struggling offenses. On the season the Gators ranked in the top 10 nationally in scoring defense (17.9 PPG), passing defense (156.3 YPG) and total defense (298.3). Florida's defense also coupled 73 tackles for loss with 30 sacks on the season. Florida can play in the trenches with a team like Iowa.
How you beat Iowa: Kirk Ferentz doesn’t really have a team that’s comfortable trading scores in a shootout, so putting some pressure on to keep up the pace early could prove pretty useful for the Gators. If there’s a preferred way to try to move the football against the Hawkeyes, it’s likely on the ground. Iowa has one of the best cornerbacks in the country patrolling the secondary in Desmond King, but the rushing defense finished just No. 8 in the Big Ten by allowing more than 153 yards per game. Penn State may have provided the ideal blueprint for knocking off the Hawkeyes, establishing itself quickly on the ground, building a multi-score lead in the first half and cruising down the stretch by sacking Beathard four times and grabbing an interception.
How you beat Florida: Just let Florida's offense do its thing. This offense has an easy time going in reverse (just look at the losses to Arkansas, Florida State and Alabama). Florida has registered less than 300 total yards in four of its last five games, turning it over 10 times in that span. Quarterback Austin Appleby just got done throwing three interceptions in that SEC title game loss to Alabama, while the Gators rushed for a net gain of zero yards in that game. Florida's offense has a tendency to help out opposing offenses by being a determining factor in those opposing offenses working with short fields. Also, short offensive drives for the Gators lead to a tired Gators defense for offenses to feast on late.
X factor for the Hawkeyes: LeShun Daniels Jr. The workload doesn’t have to be carried entirely by the bruising senior thanks to Akrum Wadley's ability to step in and make an impact as well, but the Hawkeyes looked to be at their best down the stretch when Daniels was prominently featured in the backfield. During the three-game winning streak to close the regular season, Daniels rushed a total of 69 times for 371 yards and four touchdowns as Iowa finally looked the part of the Big Ten contender they were expected to be in the preseason. With only one more outing left in his career with the Hawkeyes, don’t expect Daniels to hold anything back against the Gators.
X factor for the Gators: Jordan Scarlett. Florida doesn't have an elite passing game so they absolutely need Scarlett to do something in the running game in order to generate some sort of offensive spark. He nearly hit 800 yards on the season, and he has shown flashes of being a special talent. He can be a grinding rusher or a slasher for the Gators. His tough play against LSU was crucial in the Gators' SEC East-clinching win in Baton Rouge.
Bold prediction: The Hawkeyes will hold another offense to 13 points or less. Combining Florida’s offensive woes with Iowa’s solid track record on defense this season probably isn’t a formula that is going to produce the prettiest matchup. But Iowa has already proven it doesn’t care much for style points as long as it wins. And if the Gators wind up being the seventh opponent to fail to top 13 points against the Hawkeyes this season, there’s a good chance Ferentz will claim another victory.
Bold prediction: The Gators will score more than 20 points for the first time since Florida 20-7 win over South Carolina back on Nov. 12. Jim McElwain and offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier have no choice but to throw the kitchen sink at Iowa's stout defense. Florida needs to generate some sort of momentum going into the final stages of the recruiting season, and something that will get recruits excited is an offensive pulse. Florida will dive deeper into its playbook to find things we didn't think were possible from this coaching staff to clear the 20-point mark in January.
